2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. Though trades can be done when Portland's season is concluded, and with knowing at which position they enter the lottery, moves can be made ... however, I do not expect anything to happen -- at the earliest -- until after the lottery is held.
2. This establishes the range of actual, possible draftees and their positions in a reportedly stronger than normal draft -- little to no trading of higher picks becomes the easiest prediction.
3. The expiring contracts -- ASEC, DAEC, p-optMTEC, and RWEC -- as a practical matter -- must be decided this summer when trades are easier to accomplish (rules and flexibility for teams) and to build the next year's team.

Prediction 1: Thybulle opts-in and is traded OR opts-out ... so he is gone. Other players have his role and he costs about MLE. Don't pay to send away. Get a future 2nd or so.

Prediction 2: Williams' injury history offset by skills and age and contract means he has some value ... and if Ayton is traded, he likely stays as the Blazers are unlikely to draft someone like him. If a deal with Ayton does not happen earlier in the summer, then Time Lord is traded early on. It's one or the other with Clingan on board. At PF, one of Ayton or TimeLord can get some, but they cannot roadblock either Deni or Toumani ... and Grant is around ... and a draftee likely at forward ... and Murray, Jabari ... One Big needs a ticket out. Reath is cheap and effective for what he can do as a 3rd string center.

Prediction 3: Ant is traded to Orlando. Orlando's need for a scoring guard with gravity remains unfulfilled. This deal gets done early in the summer. Black is a Blazer in a package.

Prediction 4: Grant needs to get traded in the summer to move on with years left on contract. He is worth a future, lightly protected pick and returning short, lesser-player contracts. Getting a useful player (back-up PG or combo guard to replace the outgoing Simons?) and a pick would be an acceptable return. Grant and Ant need trading to move forward and to restructure the team salary. Does Grant get traded this summer? 50-50 but I will say YES because other teams will want to get better while winning a deal with Portland.

[BlazersBroncos]

Prediction 4: Grant needs to get traded in the summer to move on with years left on contract. He is worth a future, lightly protected pick and returning short, lesser-player contracts. Getting a useful player (back-up PG or combo guard to replace the outgoing Simons?) and a pick would be an acceptable return. Grant and Ant need trading to move forward and to restructure the team salary. Does Grant get traded this summer? 50-50 but I will say YES because other teams will want to get better while winning a deal with Portland.

I would put getting off Grant's deal AND getting any type of FRP (Much less a lightly protected FRP) is about 0%.

I think we have a chance to move off Simons and even Ayton this summer - but to me Grant is basically untradable - especially coming off this bad season.

I would hope to flip Simons to ORL once the picks are decided - likely for the DEN FRP. I do wonder if we could squeeze Black from them somehow, but probably not. Cole + Howard + DEN FRP works.

Then there is Ayton - I could see him as attractive to LAL as his deal expires 2026 so they could get a servicable C without abandoning their cap plan for summer 2026 as well as avoid paying any premium assets - this is an idea kicked around the TNT board -

PDX OUT - Ayton + Reath
PDX IN - Simone + Kleber + 2031 LAL SRP + 2 DET future SRP

LAL OUT - Rui + Kleber + 2031 LAL SRP
LAL IN - Ayton + Reath

DET OUT - Simone + 2 DET future SRP
DET IN - Rui

We cut money (35.5M vs 8.3M + 11M) dont take long salary, get some SRP, open the C spot to RWIII + DC (w/ Kleber as a 3rd string emergency guy).

I would also put out feelers for Sharpe. If a team like CHA was willing to trade a cost controlled guy like Salaun and a future UNP FRP - I would take it, and I am not even super high on Salaun.

[Butter]

For me, step one is hire Sam Cassell as head coach.

I'd like to see Jody sell the team, but I don't think that happens until after the expansion draft

[Norm2953]

I do think Simons to Orlando finally gets done. It would have gotten done if Orlando had offered up
the better of their two FRP at the trade deadline but it will get done.

Ayton to the Lakers makes sense as well.

I'd love to trade Sharpe to Toronto for a pick swap that gets Portland to 5 in the upcoming draft
assuming Toronto does not move up into the top 3.

Hopefully Portland can replace Chauncey but who is out there that would be willing to take the
Portland job with the current ownership group in place? Would Becky Hommon take the job to
become the first female head coach and would that energize Jodi's interest in the team?

[Case2012]

He's going to be really aggressive.

[zzaj]

He's going to be really aggressive.

hahaha, okay that got a good laugh out of me

[Tim Lehrbach]

I'm stunned that the belief persists that the treacherous trio will return first round draft picks.

[Pattycakes]

I'm stunned that the belief persists that the treacherous trio will return first round draft picks.

When the rumors were first hot about JG to LA, or Ant to Orl, it made sense.

Then we continued playing them for 2+ months and they both showed they weren’t really leaders or polished up the way you need a vet to be.

At this point, I think it makes a lot less sense to argue, but previously their value def was around there imo

[BlazersBroncos]

I think there is a 50/50 chance we can get a low (25-30) FRP for Simons. I think there is about a 5% chance we can move Jerami for value.

[Wizenheimer]

I think there is a 50/50 chance we can get a low (25-30) FRP for Simons. I think there is about a 5% chance we can move Jerami for value.

I think there's about a 1% chance he trades Simons; 7% he trades Grant; 0% he trades Ayton. I arrived at those odds in a scientific manner

get ready for Cronin to reboot this same team again next season. And be ready for the eternally hopeful to anticipate he finally makes a big change at next year's deadline

[HoopsFanAZ]

I just made a post in the NOP game thread semi-defending Cronin for not trading these three. I simply don't believe there is demand for them. At least on the RealGM trade market (which is stupid, admittedly), we've been over myriad scenarios a million times at the Trades and Transactions Board, and nothing seems to stick that returns anything the Blazers would actually want. And, of course, we have as evidence for their soft markets the fact that they have not been traded.

I'm not so much looking for new trade ideas -- but those are OK too -- as I am wanting to ask: would you dump these guys for equivalent salary and no draft picks in return? Worse contracts attached to second round picks? Other veterans who might fit a little better? How badly do you want them off the team?

This is the original question from the “Ayton, Grant and Simons for anything?” thread back in October that simply asked a few questions. It seems relevant, here.

So I’ll answer with the package of the least bad result where I would not declare shenanigans:

1 year filler contracts of not useful players — waived for roster spots
Low-cost, good-character, veteran bench players who can still play back-up minutes and mentor young guys for a year or two
Best possible future draft picks

This would be a talent and contract dump AND is against what Cronin has said publicly. I would rather take it down to the young studs than wait for existing, larger contracts to expire (or worse). It would also be an admission by Cronin of not getting done what he wanted and changing course to go all-in on a longer rebuild with a younger team.

Would Cronin do this? Maybe. But I doubt it.

[Butter]

I just made a post in the NOP game thread semi-defending Cronin for not trading these three. I simply don't believe there is demand for them. At least on the RealGM trade market (which is stupid, admittedly), we've been over myriad scenarios a million times at the Trades and Transactions Board, and nothing seems to stick that returns anything the Blazers would actually want. And, of course, we have as evidence for their soft markets the fact that they have not been traded.

I'm not so much looking for new trade ideas -- but those are OK too -- as I am wanting to ask: would you dump these guys for equivalent salary and no draft picks in return? Worse contracts attached to second round picks? Other veterans who might fit a little better? How badly do you want them off the team?

This is the original question from the “Ayton, Grant and Simons for anything?” thread back in October that simply asked a few questions. It seems relevant, here.

So I’ll answer with the package of the least bad result where I would not declare shenanigans:

1 year filler contracts of not useful players — waived for roster spots
Low-cost, good-character, veteran bench players who can still play back-up minutes and mentor young guys for a year or two
Best possible future draft picks

This would be a talent and contract dump AND is against what Cronin has said publicly. I would rather take it down to the young studs than wait for existing, larger contracts to expire (or worse). It would also be an admission by Cronin of not getting done what he wanted and changing course to go all-in on a longer rebuild with a younger team.

Would Cronin do this? Maybe. But I doubt it.

I think it's time to hit reset on the entire front office and coaching staff. Its not vindictive. Personally, I just think the league knows what Cronin is asking for in trades, and they aren't biting.

Maybe it's time for a new approach who is not emotionally vested in some of these players?

[zzaj]

The only thing we have to go on to predict the future is the past...

...and the past tells us that as long as Jody owns the team, Cronin will be GM. And as long as Cronin is GM he's going to hold on to his guys until the wheels come off.

He obviously has a vision that this roster can be an above 500 team, as foolish as I think that is.

The real question for me is whether Chauncey will be back. As insane as it sounds, I can imagine a reality where Chauncey is here next season after the "proof of concept" run the Blazers made pre-ASG.

And all of that makes me want to sink my head in a barrel of beer.

Cronin and Chauncey are largely responsible for like 3 of the 4 most lopsided game losses in franchise history, and they still have jobs. So to think/hope things are going to change is probably not worth the hope.

[dckingsfan]

I think there is a 50/50 chance we can get a low (25-30) FRP for Simons. I think there is about a 5% chance we can move Jerami for value.

I think there's about a 1% chance he trades Simons; 7% he trades Grant; 0% he trades Ayton. I arrived at those odds in a scientific manner

get ready for Cronin to reboot this same team again next season. And be ready for the eternally hopeful to anticipate he finally makes a big change at next year's deadline

Thanks for publishing your nonlinear, continuous & dynamic mathematical model on this probability.

I have peer-reviewed your formulas and data and found them to be 95% accurate. So:

.95 to 1.05% chance he trades Simons.

6.65 to 7.35% chance he trades Grant.

0 to .05% chance he trades Ayton.

Nice work on crunching the number

[Tim Lehrbach]

And all of that makes me want to sink my head in a barrel of beer.

Maybe this whole Cronin regime isn't so bad after all!

[Walton1one]

Blazers Edge with an article defending Cronin's inactivity again.

This will likely be the 5th year POR has had a losing record, and they are losing with "veteran" players, and yet Cronin can't seem to see the common denominator?

I don't think he will do anything, or very little if he does. He should have been fired already, heck if Paul Allen was alive he certainly would have been.

Can't wait to see POR next lottery pick riding the bench along with Scoot (in year 3), Sharpe (in year 4) and Clingan (in year 2), all while Chauncey rides out his last year under contract after Cronin "rewards" him by picking up the team option.

[Wizenheimer]

Blazers Edge with an article defending Cronin's inactivity again.

This will likely be the 5th year POR has had a losing record, and they are losing with "veteran" players, and yet Cronin can't seem to see the common denominator?

I don't think he will do anything, or very little if he does. He should have been fired already, heck if Paul Allen was alive he certainly would have been.

Can't wait to see POR next lottery pick riding the bench along with Scoot (in year 3), Sharpe (in year 4) and Clingan (in year 2), all while Chauncey rides out his last year under contract after Cronin "rewards" him by picking up the team option.

This season, Sharpe is averaging 3 fewer minutes (30.2) than he did last season. And that 30.2 average has dipped by 5 minutes to 25 minutes in February. Last season he started 78% of his games; this season he's starting 66% of his games. And it's gotten so bad that the last game, Chauncey decided to start Murray instead of Simons

this season, Scoot is averaging 2 fewer minutes (26,5) than last season, and last season there was Brogdon as well as Simons playing PG. And in February, Scoot's minutes have dropped by 2 minutes lto 24.6. Last season, Scoot started 52% of his games. This season, he's started 19% of his games. And while he's seemingly turned a corner in his shooting, and is as efficient as Simons, He averaging 3 fewer FGA than last season and 5 fewer than Simons

this season, Portland's #7 draft pick, is only averaging 16 minutes a game. almost half that of Ayton. And when healthy, Timelord has been averaging more than Clingan, indicting that Clingan is the 3rd string C in Chauncey's mind. In fact, in the last game when all 3 C's were healthy, Ayton played 32 minutes, Timelord 8, and Clingan 6

probably meaning thst Billups is the perfect coach to help drive the team into the ditch filled with the treadmills of Croin's fence straddling

by the way, I wouldn't be so sure that Paul Allen would have fired Cronin. PA tolerated Olshey's incompetence for 6 seasons before he died and that includes the 2016 spending idiocy by Olshey

[oldfishermen]

I have been patient, and quite, in regards to the post Dame process. I do believe changes are now necessary.

However, the changes need to start at the top, and work down. The team needs a new owner. Then let the new owner bring in their own gm and coach.

Untill then, I have no idea what Cronin will do.

[BlazersBroncos]

Blazers Edge with an article defending Cronin's inactivity again.

This will likely be the 5th year POR has had a losing record, and they are losing with "veteran" players, and yet Cronin can't seem to see the common denominator?

I don't think he will do anything, or very little if he does. He should have been fired already, heck if Paul Allen was alive he certainly would have been.

Can't wait to see POR next lottery pick riding the bench along with Scoot (in year 3), Sharpe (in year 4) and Clingan (in year 2), all while Chauncey rides out his last year under contract after Cronin "rewards" him by picking up the team option.

This season, Sharpe is averaging 3 fewer minutes (30.2) than he did last season. And that 30.2 average has dipped by 5 minutes to 25 minutes in February. Last season he started 78% of his games; this season he's starting 66% of his games. And it's gotten so bad that the last game, Chauncey decided to start Murray instead of Simons

this season, Scoot is averaging 2 fewer minutes (26,5) than last season, and last season there was Brogdon as well as Simons playing PG. And in February, Scoot's minutes have dropped by 2 minutes lto 24.6. Last season, Scoot started 52% of his games. This season, he's started 19% of his games. And while he's seemingly turned a corner in his shooting, and is as efficient as Simons, He averaging 3 fewer FGA than last season and 5 fewer than Simons

this season, Portland's #7 draft pick, is only averaging 16 minutes a game. almost half that of Ayton. And when healthy, Timelord has been averaging more than Clingan, indicting that Clingan is the 3rd string C in Chauncey's mind. In fact, in the last game when all 3 C's were healthy, Ayton played 32 minutes, Timelord 8, and Clingan 6

probably meaning thst Billups is the perfect coach to help drive the team into the ditch filled with the treadmills of Croin's fence straddling

by the way, I wouldn't be so sure that Paul Allen would have fired Cronin. PA tolerated Olshey's incompetence for 6 seasons before he died and that includes the 2016 spending idiocy by Olshey

Thanks for a breakdown so maddening it makes me want to throw my laptop against a wall.

[DaVoiceMaster]

My first hope is to sell the team. I don't see that happening until the team's value is higher. When will that be???

My first move is Grant. They have to unload his contract THIS summer.

My second move is Thybulle. He just does not have a place on this roster.

I'm open to signing Ayton and Simon's to an extension, so long as it's in the area of $15M and then3rdbyear is a Team Option. Since I don't see that happening, I would move both players.

Draft picksnand/or young talent would be nice, but mostly I just want the players gone. Perhaps Simon's could fetch a pick... perhaps.

I dont want to sign Sharpe to a $43M/year extension. How high of a pick could the Blazers fetch in return for Sharpe. I might explore that. I like Sharpe, but dont think he'll ever be the player we want and think he "could" be. If he had Lillard's drive, he would be amazing.

Everyone but Camara is available for trade.