Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Moderators: Domejandro, Worm Guts, Calinks
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
FrenchMinnyFan
- Starter
- Posts: 2,070
- And1: 1,270
- Joined: Feb 10, 2023
-
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Don't know why people keep saying Mike is falling down. Clearly he struggle at the beginning at the season but since DDV is injured, he is averaging 9.8 PPG, 6.2 Assists/0.9 TO. Not bad considering that this team is playing differently than last year with KAT.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Loaf_of_bread wrote:Klomp wrote:Loaf_of_bread wrote:Kd trade could use its own thread with poll. Quite a bit of division amongst fans.
9 more pages until this thread hits retirement and 6 months until any trade of any kind can be made, I think we're probably fine.
Lol, unretire, and then delete my thread should i choose to make one.
We could have a thread for each trade idea to acquire KD and it would not help. End of the day one of two things is true. Either KD is the missing piece to winning a championship (or at least contending for one,) or acquiring him is a bad move. If the former now the question becomes whether we could get there and be better off in the long run by having gone the long way around and developed sustainably? Or, is this a golden opportunity that if missed might never come around again?
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
shrink
- RealGM
- Posts: 59,478
- And1: 19,554
- Joined: Sep 26, 2005
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
cmoss84 wrote:I'll take my 4...against your 4...skins and blouses. Lake Minnetonka let's go
Winner makes the loser pancakes!
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
shrink
- RealGM
- Posts: 59,478
- And1: 19,554
- Joined: Sep 26, 2005
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Klomp wrote:shrink wrote:I tend to think that Tim Connelly can’t trade for Durant without wrecking his reputation with our players, and future free agents.
I think he needs to keep his promise Mike Conley to Mike Conley that he made during Mike’s contract negotiations last summer, and not trade him and force him to move his family again.
1. This is where what I noted in my previous post applies. If Conley is already planning on retiring, trading him becomes purely for financial reasons and wouldn't be backing out of a promise.
If he’s going to retire, getting a team to take on $10.7 mil in dead money with no production is going to cost even more assets.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
Loaf_of_bread
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,415
- And1: 671
- Joined: Nov 21, 2023
-
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:Loaf_of_bread wrote:Klomp wrote:9 more pages until this thread hits retirement and 6 months until any trade of any kind can be made, I think we're probably fine.
Lol, unretire, and then delete my thread should i choose to make one.
We could have a thread for each trade idea to acquire KD and it would not help. End of the day one of two things is true. Either KD is the missing piece to winning a championship (or at least contending for one,) or acquiring him is a bad move. If the former now the question becomes whether we could get there and be better off in the long run by having gone the long way around and developed sustainably? Or, is this a golden opportunity that if missed might never come around again?
I hear you. At the end of the day, the goal is to win a championship. If we have to make a sacrifice of a few promising assets long-term, it is absolutely worth it.
My problem with kd is that he hasn’t done anything on his own other than stepping into GSW.
Ant and depleted roster to obtain KD for a few years + limiting asset development is not what I would do, but maybe it works..
Also, I'm sure some may have thoughts of: "take the risk of KD just to keep ANT happy and loyal."
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
shrink
- RealGM
- Posts: 59,478
- And1: 19,554
- Joined: Sep 26, 2005
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:shrink wrote:I tend to think that Tim Connelly can’t trade for Durant without wrecking his reputation with our players, and future free agents.
I think he needs to keep his promise Mike Conley to Mike Conley that he made during Mike’s contract negotiations last summer, and not trade him and force him to move his family again.
I also think you have to give Gobert at least one full season here. He opted out of a higher player option to sign longterm here at a lower number. I think he deserves at least one year here before it would be ethical to trade him. And besides, we need the guy.
Without those pieces, MIN can’t shed enough salary to get below the first apron without getting rid of pieces for the future, like Ant, Jaden and Naz. I would tend to think DDV is unlikely to be traded, perhaps his cheap three year deal is the jewel of the KAT trade, and he could be our starting PG next year.
Even if Julius Randle was to take his player option, I don’t think we can put together enough salary under the first apron to make a legal trade. We also would struggle to include enough trade value. That is a shame, because Durant is one of the ten best players in the NBA, even at his current age.
1. I think any Mike trade probably includes his blessing. But I also suspect if Mike does come back next year it might be for less minutes they he wants. It is a balancing act and the promise is somewhat weakened by his fall off in performance. That said I agree trading Mike is a bad idea and likely doesn’t happen.
2. Rudy got a lot of money into his later years. Declining an option and taking a short term loss for long term gain is not the same as what Mike did. Rudy got more money in his later years instead of going into this coming year with nothing promised beyond it. If he blew out his knee or tore his Achilles without future guaranteed money that would cost him a lot more than 12 million.
3. Randle is in a tough spot. If he opts in (cannot get better money elsewhere,) he is taking that same risk Rudy would have taken. If he blows out a knee or tears his Achilles then he will lose a lot more than 6-8 million he might have to swallow to opt out and renegotiate for long term security. If Randle is willing to be a 6th man and play for 22-24 million, I would love to keep him long term.
4. Do you truly believe that trading for KD makes us a contender? If no then there is no point. If yes please explain to me what it is about KD’s numbers and abilities that are such a radical step forward? I laid out above that Randle gives you a lot of what KD gives you at half the price or less. Naz also gives you a lot of what KD gives you. With the draft capital we could draft the C of the future, use the taxpayer MLE to sign another guard who legit helps us bridge to Dilly, and we can keep both Naz and NAW. Then the following year when KD is a free agent, if he wants to ring chase, he can come here and play with his good buddy Ant, without costing us multiple key players and draft picks.
2. I don’t disagree with the “years not dollars” play, but if you listen to Rudy talk about it, he definitely feels he took less to help the team out, out of loyalty.
3. I definitely feel Randle agreeing to $22, and be a sixth man, is an extremely unlikely scenario for a player with his accolades.
4. A contender? Yes. THE contender? No. Durant is still an unguardable, 7-footer, and still a top ten player in the NBA. I don’t think we’re a contender without Gobert, and we certainly aren’t a contender if we are looking for “players of the future.”
Overall, I just don’t see a KD trade as feasible. To start with, both Randle and Conley have to make unlikely decisions to even have the start of the salary matching, and the rest of that salary is locked up in players we probably need,
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
Klomp
- Retired Mod

- Posts: 69,597
- And1: 22,971
- Joined: Jul 08, 2005
- Contact:
-
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:End of the day one of two things is true. Either KD is the missing piece to winning a championship (or at least contending for one,) or acquiring him is a bad move. If the former now the question becomes whether we could get there and be better off in the long run by having gone the long way around and developed sustainably? Or, is this a golden opportunity that if missed might never come around again?
Sorry, I just cannot agree with this....
First of all, it means every move has to be essentially championship or bust.
Secondly, it means that there is no time to allow for progressive development. For example, after just one year everyone was convinced trading for Gobert was a horrible move. And by your explanation here, there's no going back on that because he wasn't the missing piece for that 2022-23 team.
And by that, everything in the tenure for Anthony Edwards has been a colossal failure so everying needs to be blown up yesterday. There's nothing that can be done. It's over. Fold the team. After all, every acquisition has to be the missing piece to a championship or it's a bad move.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
shrink wrote:Klomp wrote:shrink wrote:I tend to think that Tim Connelly can’t trade for Durant without wrecking his reputation with our players, and future free agents.
I think he needs to keep his promise Mike Conley to Mike Conley that he made during Mike’s contract negotiations last summer, and not trade him and force him to move his family again.
1. This is where what I noted in my previous post applies. If Conley is already planning on retiring, trading him becomes purely for financial reasons and wouldn't be backing out of a promise.
If he’s going to retire, getting a team to take on $10.7 mil in dead money with no production is going to cost even more assets.
Are there any protections if a player retires before the season with money still on the contract? Kinda seems silly to make us eat the whole thing when we signed him in good faith.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Klomp wrote:winforlose wrote:End of the day one of two things is true. Either KD is the missing piece to winning a championship (or at least contending for one,) or acquiring him is a bad move. If the former now the question becomes whether we could get there and be better off in the long run by having gone the long way around and developed sustainably? Or, is this a golden opportunity that if missed might never come around again?
Sorry, I just cannot agree with this....
First of all, it means every move has to be essentially championship or bust.
Secondly, it means that there is no time to allow for progressive development. For example, after just one year everyone was convinced trading for Gobert was a horrible move. And by your explanation here, there's no going back on that because he wasn't the missing piece for that 2022-23 team.
And by that, everything in the tenure for Anthony Edwards has been a colossal failure so everying needs to be blown up yesterday. There's nothing that can be done. It's over. Fold the team. After all, every acquisition has to be the missing piece to a championship or it's a bad move.
Klomp you cannot keep doing this man. Obviously Ant in his early 20s or Gobert in his early 30s is not the same thing as KD at 37. If it takes a year to gel he is 38 and if he wants a max that is over 60 million. If he retires at 39 that is two years and two cracks at this. Meanwhile we gave up players who could be useful in year 3.
P.S. the Gobert trade was a little bit of an overpay but I loved the spirit of it to pair KAT and Rudy together and it gets better with Jaden. Take KAT out of the equation and it was a TRAVESTY! KAT would have been more valuable than Rudy to this franchise. We would also have a ton of picks to use as ammunition to get longer term cheaper players than Rudy. The 2nd apron must have really blindsided Glen, because all signs said spend to win, and we took one look at the 2nd apron and said **** it, let’s save money and to hell with the team, the fans, the title chase, and everything else. You saw the potential of the twin towers done right, and now you’re seeing what happens when you sell low on KAT.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
shrink
- RealGM
- Posts: 59,478
- And1: 19,554
- Joined: Sep 26, 2005
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:shrink wrote:Klomp wrote:1. This is where what I noted in my previous post applies. If Conley is already planning on retiring, trading him becomes purely for financial reasons and wouldn't be backing out of a promise.
If he’s going to retire, getting a team to take on $10.7 mil in dead money with no production is going to cost even more assets.
Are there any protections if a player retires before the season with money still on the contract? Kinda seems silly to make us eat the whole thing when we signed him in good faith.
NBA contracts are fully guaranteed. A player can choose to do a buyout for less than that amount, but is under no obligation.
We occasionally see players do this so they can sign with another team, and once in a while, a player does it when they retire, but make no mistake, the vast majority want their full guaranteed salaries, and who can blame them?
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
- Domejandro
- Forum Mod - Timberwolves

- Posts: 20,528
- And1: 30,961
- Joined: Jul 29, 2014
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:KD is an ISO heavy scorer who is averaging 27.3/6/2. Julius Randle is averaging 18.9/7.2/4.5.
Quoting this particular part because I think it is important.
Raw Stats:
27.3/6.0/4.2 vs. 18.9/7.2/4.5
Shooting Splits:
53.2/40.4/82.5 vs 47.0/32.1/81.1
We are talking 63.8 TS% against 57.8 TS%.
For players who have played in thirty games and play more than twenty-eight minutes a game, that's the difference between 13th most efficient and 60th most efficient. Add the threshold of shooting forteen or more shots per game, and the difference is 7th most efficient and 42nd most efficient. A 6% difference is MASSIVE.
Kevin Durant shoots 42.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (4.6 attempts per game). Julius Randle shoots 31.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (3.4 attempts per game). For reference, Naz Reid shoots 40.7% on 4.4 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game.
I think Kevin Durant is getting radically underrated in this thread, the dude is extraordinarily efficient despite having to generate a ton of his own offense.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Domejandro wrote:winforlose wrote:KD is an ISO heavy scorer who is averaging 27.3/6/2. Julius Randle is averaging 18.9/7.2/4.5.
Quoting this particular part because I think it is important.
Raw Stats:
27.3/6.0/4.2 vs. 18.9/7.2/4.5
Shooting Splits:
53.2/40.4/82.5 vs 47.0/32.1/81.1
We are talking 63.8 TS% against 57.8 TS%.
For players who have played in thirty games and play more than twenty-eight minutes a game, that's the difference between 13th most efficient and 60th most efficient. Add the threshold of shooting forteen or more shots per game, and the difference is 7th most efficient and 42nd most efficient. A 6% difference is MASSIVE.
Kevin Durant shoots 42.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (4.6 attempts per game). Julius Randle shoots 31.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (3.4 attempts per game). For reference, Naz Reid shoots 40.7% on 4.4 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game.
I think Kevin Durant is getting radically underrated in this thread, the dude is extraordinarily efficient despite having to generate a ton of his own offense.
Everything you said is correct, yet his team has 26 wins and 28 losses. Having KD does not automatically win a game and losing 3 or 4 rotation worthy players to get the increase from Randle to KD does not mean the team is better. As I discussed at length above this is not prime KD, he is gonna be 37. If it takes 1 season to gel now he is 38 and in a position to get 35% of the cap which will be about 170 million. We are talking about around 60 million for the 38 year old version of KD. There is no way to know if he plays or plays well at 39. Just the post before yours we were talking about Mike retiring with 10.7 dead cap on his deal. Imagine if KD retires with 60+ on his for 27/28. Also KD is literally THE GUY when it comes to leaving teams looking for easy rings. We could trade a lot for him, have a rough year and he ditches us for nothing. The risks are high, the rewards seem low, so I ask you is he the missing piece? You don’t trade real depth and youth for a KD unless it is with the intent to win a chip. Do you think KD gets us to that goal?
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
shrink
- RealGM
- Posts: 59,478
- And1: 19,554
- Joined: Sep 26, 2005
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:End of the day one of two things is true. Either KD is the missing piece to winning a championship (or at least contending for one,) or acquiring him is a bad move.
A third option is that we want the highly impressionable Ant next to his workaholic gym rat hero, to focus in on Durant’s routines and adjust Ant's trajectory towards the Hall of Fame,
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
- Domejandro
- Forum Mod - Timberwolves

- Posts: 20,528
- And1: 30,961
- Joined: Jul 29, 2014
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:Domejandro wrote:winforlose wrote:KD is an ISO heavy scorer who is averaging 27.3/6/2. Julius Randle is averaging 18.9/7.2/4.5.
Quoting this particular part because I think it is important.
Raw Stats:
27.3/6.0/4.2 vs. 18.9/7.2/4.5
Shooting Splits:
53.2/40.4/82.5 vs 47.0/32.1/81.1
We are talking 63.8 TS% against 57.8 TS%.
For players who have played in thirty games and play more than twenty-eight minutes a game, that's the difference between 13th most efficient and 60th most efficient. Add the threshold of shooting forteen or more shots per game, and the difference is 7th most efficient and 42nd most efficient. A 6% difference is MASSIVE.
Kevin Durant shoots 42.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (4.6 attempts per game). Julius Randle shoots 31.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (3.4 attempts per game). For reference, Naz Reid shoots 40.7% on 4.4 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game.
I think Kevin Durant is getting radically underrated in this thread, the dude is extraordinarily efficient despite having to generate a ton of his own offense.
Everything you said is correct, yet his team has 26 wins and 28 losses. Having KD does not automatically win a game and losing 3 or 4 rotation worthy players to get the increase from Randle to KD does not mean the team is better. As I discussed at length above this is not prime KD, he is gonna be 37. If it takes 1 season to gel now he is 38 and in a position to get 35% of the cap which will be about 170 million. We are talking about around 60 million for the 38 year old version of KD. There is no way to know if he plays or plays well at 39. Just the post before yours we were talking about Mike retiring with 10.7 dead cap on his deal. Imagine if KD retires with 60+ on his for 27/28. Also KD is literally THE GUY when it comes to leaving teams looking for easy rings. We could trade a lot for him, have a rough year and he ditches us for nothing. The risks are high, the rewards seem low, so I ask you is he the missing piece? You don’t trade real depth and youth for a KD unless it is with the intent to win a chip. Do you think KD gets us to that goal?
Phoenix is 24-17 when Kevin Durant plays, and 2-11 when Kevin Durant is out. 58.5% vs. 15.4% win-rate.
Feel free to criticize durability, but his impact on winning absolutely couldn't be more irrefutable.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Domejandro wrote:winforlose wrote:Domejandro wrote:Quoting this particular part because I think it is important.
Raw Stats:
27.3/6.0/4.2 vs. 18.9/7.2/4.5
Shooting Splits:
53.2/40.4/82.5 vs 47.0/32.1/81.1
We are talking 63.8 TS% against 57.8 TS%.
For players who have played in thirty games and play more than twenty-eight minutes a game, that's the difference between 13th most efficient and 60th most efficient. Add the threshold of shooting forteen or more shots per game, and the difference is 7th most efficient and 42nd most efficient. A 6% difference is MASSIVE.
Kevin Durant shoots 42.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (4.6 attempts per game). Julius Randle shoots 31.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (3.4 attempts per game). For reference, Naz Reid shoots 40.7% on 4.4 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game.
I think Kevin Durant is getting radically underrated in this thread, the dude is extraordinarily efficient despite having to generate a ton of his own offense.
Everything you said is correct, yet his team has 26 wins and 28 losses. Having KD does not automatically win a game and losing 3 or 4 rotation worthy players to get the increase from Randle to KD does not mean the team is better. As I discussed at length above this is not prime KD, he is gonna be 37. If it takes 1 season to gel now he is 38 and in a position to get 35% of the cap which will be about 170 million. We are talking about around 60 million for the 38 year old version of KD. There is no way to know if he plays or plays well at 39. Just the post before yours we were talking about Mike retiring with 10.7 dead cap on his deal. Imagine if KD retires with 60+ on his for 27/28. Also KD is literally THE GUY when it comes to leaving teams looking for easy rings. We could trade a lot for him, have a rough year and he ditches us for nothing. The risks are high, the rewards seem low, so I ask you is he the missing piece? You don’t trade real depth and youth for a KD unless it is with the intent to win a chip. Do you think KD gets us to that goal?
Phoenix is 24-17 when Kevin Durant plays, and 2-11 when Kevin Durant is out. 58.5% vs. 15.4% win-rate.
Feel free to criticize durability, but his impact on winning absolutely couldn't be more irrefutable.
The Wolves are 3 and 6 without Mike Conley. Conversely they are 28 and 19 with Mike Conley. Does that mean Mike Conley is one of the most important rotation players?
Also the Suns lack depth. People like Klomp will tell you 9-15 does not matter. But guess what, if you have a guy miss 13 out of 54 games, then who plays behind him, and how the rotation of those games changes matters a lot. Plus we know the Suns had other guys missing at the same time. Maybe being forced to play sub standard players who are liabilities is actually not the best strategy for winning.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
- ILC
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,689
- And1: 2,268
- Joined: Apr 15, 2014
-
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
ILC wrote:winforlose wrote:ILC wrote:You did the math with the (correct?) assumption that they have to stay under the 2nd apron no matter what.
I am talking about the (slight) possibility that they decide to get him and stay above the 2nd apron and choosing to deal with it later down the road.
Mathematically it is possible that Randle opts in, he's traded with Mike, Rob and another small salary for KD, we keep Naz and NAW's bird rights and re-sign them both while getting above the 2nd apron, correct?
Not a choice or an assumption. If we trade any 2 players or more for 1 that is aggregation. If you make any trade using aggregation you MUST by rule be below the 2nd apron all season (turns into a hard cap.) Any move to go over the 2nd apron becomes illegal and the league does not allow you to do so. There is literally no scenario where we trade for KD with two players and go over the apron.
I see, thank you. I thought it was different in the offseason compared to in-season.
That's it then, I'm against the KD trade. Love him to death but he at 37 is not worth depleting the whole team.
Re-sign NAW and Naz, keep below the 2nd apron, and run with the kids plus Mike and Rudy. Continue internal development.
OK, I completely disregarded one (semi-realistic?) scenario here...
What if Randle opts in with the handshake agreement that he'll get an extension from PHX (who, let's be realistic, could do a lot worse for their Booker 2nd banana than Randle)? Would it then be financially/hard-cap legal to trade Randle, Mike, Rob, let's say Minott, Miller and one of Clark/TSJ for KD plus re-sign both Naz and NAW and go over the 2nd apron?
If that's legal then you're left with DDV, Ant, Naz, NAW, Jaden, KD, Rudy, Clark/TSJ. How much space does it leave for any minimum/MLE signings?
LarryBirdsFingr wrote:Redemption. Water into wine....rondo is Jesus
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
ILC wrote:ILC wrote:winforlose wrote:
Not a choice or an assumption. If we trade any 2 players or more for 1 that is aggregation. If you make any trade using aggregation you MUST by rule be below the 2nd apron all season (turns into a hard cap.) Any move to go over the 2nd apron becomes illegal and the league does not allow you to do so. There is literally no scenario where we trade for KD with two players and go over the apron.
I see, thank you. I thought it was different in the offseason compared to in-season.
That's it then, I'm against the KD trade. Love him to death but he at 37 is not worth depleting the whole team.
Re-sign NAW and Naz, keep below the 2nd apron, and run with the kids plus Mike and Rudy. Continue internal development.
OK, I completely disregarded one (semi-realistic?) scenario here...
What if Randle opts in with the handshake agreement that he'll get an extension from PHX (who, let's be realistic, could do a lot worse for their Booker 2nd banana than Randle)? Would it then be financially/hard-cap legal to trade Randle, Mike, Rob, let's say Minott, Miller and one of Clark/TSJ for KD plus re-sign both Naz and NAW and go over the 2nd apron?
If that's legal then you're left with DDV, Ant, Naz, NAW, Jaden, KD, Rudy, Clark/TSJ. How much space does it leave for any minimum/MLE signings?
I did all the basic math for you a couple pages back. The Wolves salaries are on Spotrac. If you want me to do more specific math for you I can, but you must give me specific values to plug in for Naz, NAW, and whoever else you are signing. You also need to give details about our picks. A first costs more than a 2nd, ect… The likely answer is no. If you go back and look DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy cost $172,107,742.00. The hard cap is $207,825,000. $207,825,000- 172,107,742= $35,717,258.00. If you have to pay Naz 22 and NAW 8 then you have no chance of clearing the hard cap.
Edit to add: I want to remind you if at any point 2 or more players of lesser salary are sent out, and 1 player of greater salary is brought in, that is aggregation. The moment you aggregate, you are hard capped for the calander year. No Wolf makes KD’s salary. Any trade for KD is an automatic hard cap.
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
FrenchMinnyFan
- Starter
- Posts: 2,070
- And1: 1,270
- Joined: Feb 10, 2023
-
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
Domejandro wrote:winforlose wrote:Domejandro wrote:Quoting this particular part because I think it is important.
Raw Stats:
27.3/6.0/4.2 vs. 18.9/7.2/4.5
Shooting Splits:
53.2/40.4/82.5 vs 47.0/32.1/81.1
We are talking 63.8 TS% against 57.8 TS%.
For players who have played in thirty games and play more than twenty-eight minutes a game, that's the difference between 13th most efficient and 60th most efficient. Add the threshold of shooting forteen or more shots per game, and the difference is 7th most efficient and 42nd most efficient. A 6% difference is MASSIVE.
Kevin Durant shoots 42.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (4.6 attempts per game). Julius Randle shoots 31.3% on catch-and-shoot threes (3.4 attempts per game). For reference, Naz Reid shoots 40.7% on 4.4 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game.
I think Kevin Durant is getting radically underrated in this thread, the dude is extraordinarily efficient despite having to generate a ton of his own offense.
Everything you said is correct, yet his team has 26 wins and 28 losses. Having KD does not automatically win a game and losing 3 or 4 rotation worthy players to get the increase from Randle to KD does not mean the team is better. As I discussed at length above this is not prime KD, he is gonna be 37. If it takes 1 season to gel now he is 38 and in a position to get 35% of the cap which will be about 170 million. We are talking about around 60 million for the 38 year old version of KD. There is no way to know if he plays or plays well at 39. Just the post before yours we were talking about Mike retiring with 10.7 dead cap on his deal. Imagine if KD retires with 60+ on his for 27/28. Also KD is literally THE GUY when it comes to leaving teams looking for easy rings. We could trade a lot for him, have a rough year and he ditches us for nothing. The risks are high, the rewards seem low, so I ask you is he the missing piece? You don’t trade real depth and youth for a KD unless it is with the intent to win a chip. Do you think KD gets us to that goal?
Phoenix is 24-17 when Kevin Durant plays, and 2-11 when Kevin Durant is out. 58.5% vs. 15.4% win-rate.
Feel free to criticize durability, but his impact on winning absolutely couldn't be more irrefutable.
Stats can be turn into many ways. Minny is 28-19 when Mike play, 3-6 when he don't play but people here say he is old and slowing down. True probably in-between. KD is a fantastic player but going all-in for a 38 years old player is a huge mistake on my opinion.
Risk of injuries, ages....
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
-
winforlose
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,356
- And1: 5,903
- Joined: Feb 27, 2020
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
FrenchMinnyFan wrote:Domejandro wrote:winforlose wrote:
Everything you said is correct, yet his team has 26 wins and 28 losses. Having KD does not automatically win a game and losing 3 or 4 rotation worthy players to get the increase from Randle to KD does not mean the team is better. As I discussed at length above this is not prime KD, he is gonna be 37. If it takes 1 season to gel now he is 38 and in a position to get 35% of the cap which will be about 170 million. We are talking about around 60 million for the 38 year old version of KD. There is no way to know if he plays or plays well at 39. Just the post before yours we were talking about Mike retiring with 10.7 dead cap on his deal. Imagine if KD retires with 60+ on his for 27/28. Also KD is literally THE GUY when it comes to leaving teams looking for easy rings. We could trade a lot for him, have a rough year and he ditches us for nothing. The risks are high, the rewards seem low, so I ask you is he the missing piece? You don’t trade real depth and youth for a KD unless it is with the intent to win a chip. Do you think KD gets us to that goal?
Phoenix is 24-17 when Kevin Durant plays, and 2-11 when Kevin Durant is out. 58.5% vs. 15.4% win-rate.
Feel free to criticize durability, but his impact on winning absolutely couldn't be more irrefutable.
Stats can be turn into many ways. Minny is 28-19 when Mike play, 3-6 when he don't play but people here say he is old and slowing down. True probably in-between. KD is a fantastic player but going all-in for a 38 years old player is a huge mistake on my opinion.
Risk of injuries, ages....
I made the exact same argument a few posts back. Great minds think alike
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
- ILC
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,689
- And1: 2,268
- Joined: Apr 15, 2014
-
Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition
winforlose wrote:ILC wrote:ILC wrote:I see, thank you. I thought it was different in the offseason compared to in-season.
That's it then, I'm against the KD trade. Love him to death but he at 37 is not worth depleting the whole team.
Re-sign NAW and Naz, keep below the 2nd apron, and run with the kids plus Mike and Rudy. Continue internal development.
OK, I completely disregarded one (semi-realistic?) scenario here...
What if Randle opts in with the handshake agreement that he'll get an extension from PHX (who, let's be realistic, could do a lot worse for their Booker 2nd banana than Randle)? Would it then be financially/hard-cap legal to trade Randle, Mike, Rob, let's say Minott, Miller and one of Clark/TSJ for KD plus re-sign both Naz and NAW and go over the 2nd apron?
If that's legal then you're left with DDV, Ant, Naz, NAW, Jaden, KD, Rudy, Clark/TSJ. How much space does it leave for any minimum/MLE signings?
I did all the math for you a couple pages back. The Wolves salaries are on Spotrac. If you want me to do the math for you I can, but you must give me specific values to plug in for Naz, NAW, and whoever else you are signing. You also need to give details about our picks. A first costs more than a 2nd, ect… The likely answer is no. If you go back and look DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy cost $172,107,742.00. The hard cap is $207,825,000. $207,825,000- 172,107,742= $35,717,258.00. If you have to pay Naz 22 and NAW 8 then you have no chance of clearing the hard cap.
As I understand it - hard cap and 2nd apron are two different things?
Hard cap is an "imaginary" wall where you get stuck if you do a S&T etc? 2nd apron is a real financial number threshold where if you go over you cannot aggregate salaries in trades, your pick gets frozen etc? But you are still allowed to make moves that get you above the 2nd apron correct? Otherwise how did the Wolves get to be above the 2nd apron if you can never cross it back after going under?
For this part specifically:
If you go back and look DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy cost $172,107,742.00. The hard cap is $207,825,000. $207,825,000- 172,107,742= $35,717,258.00. If you have to pay Naz 22 and NAW 8 then you have no chance of clearing the hard cap.
With those 5 we're at 172m, understood. Why are the Wolves then not allowed to re-sign Naz for let's say 25m and NAW for 12m and go over the 2nd apron if they have their bird rights? Is there legality that prevents them or do you think they just wouldn't do that/not feasible to building the team further?
Isn't the 1st apron at 195m? Why are you not allowed to aggregate salaries if you are under the 1st apron even?
LarryBirdsFingr wrote:Redemption. Water into wine....rondo is Jesus
Return to Minnesota Timberwolves




