2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Norm2953]

I do think this is the last off season Cronin gets to punt before changes finally happen for there
is no guarantee Ayton, Simons, etc would choose to re-sign with Portland unless they are maxed
out. If Cronin is stupid enough to max those guys out...

[Case2012]

I thought Jody was holding on until the TV deal, but i guess I was wrong. I really dont think she is going to sell until she's forced to. There's no reason she should sell as long as she's cashing those checks living off her dead brothers fortune. Why would she?

Unless there's a massive smear campaign about her, like some crazy scandal that someone unearths about her and the league forces a sale, it's not gonna happen. Joe wont be fired because he's a yes man and does what he's told.


If Cronin does make a trade or 2 they will be terrible as hell and set the team back another year or 2 at least and make zero sense, same goes with any extensions he offers. My big prediction is he finally trades the pick(which he should have done 3 years ago to build around dame) to add a "star" as the missing piece to this contender he's convinced himself he built during the win streak. Probably Zion? He'll send NO Clingan and Sharpe, with this years pick and the MIl pick for Zion.

Next year Simons,Deni,Grant,Zion,Ayton or some ridiculous crap like that. Maybe it'll be a Similar deal for Trae Young. Scoot,Clingan, Thybulle, RW and this years pick plus the Milwaukie pick. Trae,Simons,Deni,Grant,Ayton. Yes these are terrible ideas and trades but this what i expect Cronin to do.

[Walton1one]

I thought Jody was holding on until the TV deal, but i guess I was wrong. I really dont think she is going to sell until she's forced to. There's no reason she should sell as long as she's cashing those checks living off her dead brothers fortune. Why would she?

Unless there's a massive smear campaign about her, like some crazy scandal that someone unearths about her and the league forces a sale, it's not gonna happen. Joe wont be fired because he's a yes man and does what he's told.


If Cronin does make a trade or 2 they will be terrible as hell and set the team back another year or 2 at least and make zero sense, same goes with any extensions he offers. My big prediction is he finally trades the pick(which he should have done 3 years ago to build around dame) to add a "star" as the missing piece to this contender he's convinced himself he built during the win streak. Probably Zion? He'll send NO Clingan and Sharpe, with this years pick and the MIl pick for Zion.

Next year Simons,Deni,Grant,Zion,Ayton or some ridiculous crap like that. Maybe it'll be a Similar deal for Trae Young. Scoot,Clingan, Thybulle, RW and this years pick plus the Milwaukie pick. Trae,Simons,Deni,Grant,Ayton. Yes these are terrible ideas and trades but this what i expect Cronin to do.

Yeah, what is most distressing is that I could literally see Cronin do something like that and justify it with the play of the vets this year. It is completely bonkers and won't work, but then again Cronin has been viewed as the "architect" behind the scenes of a POR retool not a rebuild, and his actions clearly seem to demonstrate that remains his view.

[Walton1one]

The bottom line is Cronin only has to make one move. Clear a roster spot for whomever they end up with as a lottery pick, and he has several options to choose from to make that happen.

and one of those options could be trading that pick for a player that meets the timeline of Ant\Ayton\Williams, which would not only be idiotic but ironic since he would not do that for Dame, lol

More likely though is he lets Banton, Walker or Reath walk. Those are really easy moves to make. Thybulle could be another option, however, I think Cronin probably keeps him (if he opts in) and justifies it as needing to get something for an asset\his mistake. Should have never matched that DAL offer in the first place, and yet I have heard nothing\little from the local media questioning him about this move as they all seem to be content to eat the same "very active, but nothing made sense" slop from Joe for the past several seasons.

[Case2012]

Considering sharing the convo i had with chat gpt about it.. pretty wild. Should i?

[JRoy]

Considering sharing the convo i had with chat gpt about it.. pretty wild. Should i?

Sounds hilarious.

Do it.

[PDXKnight]

The bottom line is Cronin only has to make one move. Clear a roster spot for whomever they end up with as a lottery pick, and he has several options to choose from to make that happen.

and one of those options could be trading that pick for a player that meets the timeline of Ant\Ayton\Williams, which would not only be idiotic but ironic since he would not do that for Dame, lol

More likely though is he lets Banton, Walker or Reath walk. Those are really easy moves to make. Thybulle could be another option, however, I think Cronin probably keeps him (if he opts in) and justifies it as needing to get something for an asset\his mistake. Should have never matched that DAL offer in the first place, and yet I have heard nothing\little from the local media questioning him about this move as they all seem to be content to eat the same "very active, but nothing made sense" slop from Joe for the past several seasons.

Isn't reath under contract? Def wont be thy on that money lol. Probably walker or banton are the easiest non moves. I'd doubt we resign either unless we trade away multiple players for fewer players.

[Walton1one]

Reath is under contract for next year, but it is non guaranteed, fully guarantees on 8/1/25

[PDXKnight]

Reath is under contract for next year, but it is non guaranteed, fully guarantees on 8/1/25

Hes probably gone as well then unless he looks good with Ayton out

[Walton1one]

From ESPN+ article:

The Wizards continue to play the long game as evidenced by their multiple trade deadline deals. Along with trading away Kuzma and bringing back the large salaries of Middleton and Marcus Smart for prospects and draft capital, they're continuing to reset their roster around young talent.

Washington's full commitment to stripping down the roster and extracting value out of every transaction is straight out of the Oklahoma City playbook, something rival teams anticipated from the outset given the significant time spent by Wizards president Michael Winger (2010-17) and general manager Will Dawkins (2008-23) working in the Thunder organization.

"In general their plan is pretty foolproof as long as they stay patient with it. Everyone wants to compare it to the OKC model -- I think you could use Houston as a better example," one Western Conference executive told ESPN. "Take tons of swings, and if you're decent at drafting, you're going to find some good players."

Yeah, it is not like there isn't a blueprint or anything to follow, yet Cronin seems hell-bent on not following it...

"They have long-term vision and buy-in at the highest level, which is commendable," the same Western Conference executive said. "My guess is they don't have their main guy yet. But say they get Flagg, all of a sudden, competing for the playoffs in a couple years wouldn't be a surprise. It would surprise me if they don't eventually turn into a pretty good team."

Sounds familiar? Yet WAS is better poised to get that player (percentages matter) and has acquired more assets.

[Walton1one]

Some notable quotes from another ESPN+ article:

Not only are the Nets projected to have a league-high $60-plus million to sign free agents or acquire players in a trade, they also have four first-round picks in this year's draft.

"You have to be poised and position yourself to be able to have that opportunity," GM Sean Marks said in January. "We're going to give ourselves the best chance to do that. Now, on whom and when, that's TBD."

In total, Brooklyn has 16 first-round picks in the next seven years -- 13 are tradable. They also have 17 second-rounders.

POR has (2) tradeable 1st's and (6) 2nd's

Memphis GM Zach Kleiman was up front about acquiring Marcus Smart from the Boston Celtics in 2023 and then trading him to the Washington Wizards at the February deadline.

"We made a move that so far to date, hadn't worked," Kleiman said. "I'd much rather own that myself. That starts with me. You cut your losses on a move, and we put ourselves in the best position to build the team going forward."

What a novel concept, too bad Cronin is seemingly incapable of owning up to his errors.

[Wizenheimer]

Some notable quotes from another ESPN+ article:

Not only are the Nets projected to have a league-high $60-plus million to sign free agents or acquire players in a trade, they also have four first-round picks in this year's draft.

"You have to be poised and position yourself to be able to have that opportunity," GM Sean Marks said in January. "We're going to give ourselves the best chance to do that. Now, on whom and when, that's TBD."

In total, Brooklyn has 16 first-round picks in the next seven years -- 13 are tradable. They also have 17 second-rounders.

POR has (2) tradeable 1st's and (6) 2nd's

Memphis GM Zach Kleiman was up front about acquiring Marcus Smart from the Boston Celtics in 2023 and then trading him to the Washington Wizards at the February deadline.

"We made a move that so far to date, hadn't worked," Kleiman said. "I'd much rather own that myself. That starts with me. You cut your losses on a move, and we put ourselves in the best position to build the team going forward."

What a novel concept, too bad Cronin is seemingly incapable of owning up to his errors.

I'm not sure about all that

I would think if it's a toss-up between Portland and Washington about which has the better plan and which has the better future, it's a bleak situation for the Blazers

[Walton1one]

I agree, it is bleak regarding POR right now, unless you are those few souls who believe that this offseason Cronin will make moves, or if not next trade deadline, he has to make moves by then, and the hamster wheel goes on and on.

POR has (2) tradeable 1st's and (6) 2nd's

WAS has at least (4) tradeable 1st's and (20?) 2nd round picks

WAS has a 14% chance at the #1 pick and a 52.1% chance of a top 4 pick, which in this draft matters a fair bit

POR has a 4.5% chance at the #1 pick and a 20.2% chance at a top 4 pick

Do Middleton\Smart have more trade value that Grant\Ayton\Simons? I guess we will find out

Sarr vs Clingan?
Coulibaly vs Sharpe?
Carrington vs Scoot?

I'd say the jury is out on those comparisons, I like POR players better, but of course I am biased. national pundits don't seem to agree with my sentiment

Deni\Camara are certainly better than what's left on WAS roster, George\Johnson\Kispert, but I am not sure either move the needle appreciably for POR, at least not yet

If WAS got Flagg, I don't think it is a stretch at all that they would leapfrog POR in a few years. It is possible they would even if they got Harper, Bailey or Edgecombe instead.

We could say POR would be great too if they got Flagg, any team would, which is true however, WAS has a 14.5% chance, POR 4.5% chance. WAS has a 52% chance at a Top 4 pick (100% chance at a top 5 pick, Jakucionis, or whomever of top 4 dropped), POR has a 20% chance to get into the Top 4, which is way less than they do of picking 9th (50.7%) or 10th (25.9%).

You could say that doesn't matter stars are found everywhere, which is true, except pretty much unanimously the talk about this draft is it strong at the top, then from #6 onward a complete crapshoot. I'd rather have one of those 5 players than hope you hit the jackpot on some other player.

Does POR hit on a guy like CJ (#10)? or miss on a guy like Leonard (#11) or a guy like Zach Collins (#10)? Who knows? But it certainly would be better to picking higher than later.

[JasonStern]

Recent losing streak has us cemented in the lotto. Dreaming about losing in the play-in was fun while it lasted.

Jody isn't selling the team until a check is cemented for either an upcoming TV contract or funds distributed from league expansion occurs.

I will never understand everyone's demand to trade Simons and Ayton. The reasons why you want both gone are the exact reasons why they have no value. I can write you a check for zero dollars. Guess what happens when you try to cash it? You get zero dollars. They expire after next season. Ride them out and try to retain them on cheaper contracts. Just look at Ayton. At $12M, he'd be a fan favorite. At $36M, everyone hates him. The Blazers have the ability to see if Simons or Ayton can take a step forward before throwing money at them or just letting them walk. Cap space has value in trades and free agency. The Scoot/Sharpe back court idea hasn't proven ready for prime time. Nor has Cling Kong. Another year of Simons/Ayton is not going to massively derail next season. But if we traded either for an Ariel Hukporti and then Simons or Ayton thrived on a new team, everyone would just start complaining about how bad of a GM Cronin is, despite listening to your advice.

Grant really needs to be moved for an expiring. I wouldn't care about picks or prospects. Grant for an expiring gives us a massive amount of flexibility entering the off-season next year. Max cap space versus our current just under the luxury tax for a bad team situation. Will the Blazers blow it throwing seven figures at someone like Ariel Hukporti or whatever next year's Festus Ezeli is? Probably. But there is still at least a potential beneficial outcome.

Biggest Sharpe fan on RealGM, but I have no idea why everyone thinks that a team with $43M in cap space is going to offer that for him. Nor do I see why you would use a lotto pick on him, spend years developing him, and then trade him to move up slightly in the draft unless you are absolutely confident you are getting a Roy/Dame tier player, which is unlikely.

Also, the "OMG we didn't build a war chest!" argument is flawed. We did. We spent it on Deni. And while that's not the super star many were unrealistically expecting, that stupid f'ing Chicago trade for Nance that Olshey made really limited any ability to have this massive war chest for unnamed, unlikely to be attainable by Portland superstar. We are not the Lakers. Teams are not going to just gift us elite talent.

[BlazersBroncos]

Biggest Sharpe fan on RealGM, but I have no idea why everyone thinks that a team with $43M in cap space is going to offer that for him. Nor do I see why you would use a lotto pick on him, spend years developing him, and then trade him to move up slightly in the draft unless you are absolutely confident you are getting a Roy/Dame tier player, which is unlikely.

Its precedent.

Pat Williams got 20M AV. Jalen Green got 34M AV. Sharpe will be in the middle - somewhere around 25-30M AV.

And thats an investment I wouldnt touch. Sharpe has not improved in 3 years. His advanced stats are among the worst on the team. He puts up some decent raw stats because he gets touches and opportunity - something most players in the NBA could do if given a green light to shoot a ton (Ron Mercer effect).

[oldfishermen]

Cronin's strategy of buying high and selling low, combined with overpaying his own players, has placed this roster of servicable players, in a no win situation. They are too good to land a high draft pick, but not good enough to compete for a ring. The players deserve better than hoping they can get into the playoffs someday.

Cronin's off season strategy should be to take a series of high level seminars on how to negotiate. He is getting beat up by both the player agents, and the other gms.

[oldfishermen]

Duplicate post.

[Walton1one]

Recent losing streak has us cemented in the lotto. Dreaming about losing in the play-in was fun while it lasted.

Jody isn't selling the team until a check is cemented for either an upcoming TV contract or funds distributed from league expansion occurs.

I will never understand everyone's demand to trade Simons and Ayton. The reasons why you want both gone are the exact reasons why they have no value. I can write you a check for zero dollars. Guess what happens when you try to cash it? You get zero dollars. They expire after next season. Ride them out and try to retain them on cheaper contracts. Just look at Ayton. At $12M, he'd be a fan favorite. At $36M, everyone hates him. The Blazers have the ability to see if Simons or Ayton can take a step forward before throwing money at them or just letting them walk. Cap space has value in trades and free agency. The Scoot/Sharpe back court idea hasn't proven ready for prime time. Nor has Cling Kong. Another year of Simons/Ayton is not going to massively derail next season. But if we traded either for an Ariel Hukporti and then Simons or Ayton thrived on a new team, everyone would just start complaining about how bad of a GM Cronin is, despite listening to your advice.

Grant really needs to be moved for an expiring. I wouldn't care about picks or prospects. Grant for an expiring gives us a massive amount of flexibility entering the off-season next year. Max cap space versus our current just under the luxury tax for a bad team situation. Will the Blazers blow it throwing seven figures at someone like Ariel Hukporti or whatever next year's Festus Ezeli is? Probably. But there is still at least a potential beneficial outcome.

Biggest Sharpe fan on RealGM, but I have no idea why everyone thinks that a team with $43M in cap space is going to offer that for him. Nor do I see why you would use a lotto pick on him, spend years developing him, and then trade him to move up slightly in the draft unless you are absolutely confident you are getting a Roy/Dame tier player, which is unlikely.

Also, the "OMG we didn't build a war chest!" argument is flawed. We did. We spent it on Deni. And while that's not the super star many were unrealistically expecting, that stupid f'ing Chicago trade for Nance that Olshey made really limited any ability to have this massive war chest for unnamed, unlikely to be attainable by Portland superstar. We are not the Lakers. Teams are not going to just gift us elite talent.

I just respectfully disagree with this sentiment, first off Ayton is not going to re-sign in POR for $12mil, and even if your point is POR could sign him or Simons for less and therefore they would be a fine fit for this team, I think that is wishful thinking at best.

The fact is those two guys are not winning players, never have been, never will be. Keeping them on this team, even at a reduced rate (if that is even possible) doesn't make this team suddenly better than what they currently are, all it does is continue the subpar play that they exhibit now & take minutes\usage away from players who are already better (and younger) than they are.

The reason this team is playing better this year has little to do with Ant\Grant\Ayton, all of whom are having varying degrees of worse play than they had LY. So the team is winning more because of players like Avdija, the addition of Clingan and the improved play of Camara, and of late Scoot. Still, even with all that, this team is a sub .500 team, with no Alpha and limited assets to acquire one.

The war chest argument is 100% valid and the fact that EVERY other team in POR prediciment can see that\is acting on that except for POR, shows what an idiot our current GM is. Is he the mad genius who knows something the rest of the NBA does not? Hardly

Let's say Booker becomes available this offseason and inexplicably he wants to go to POR, no scratch that, he wouldn't, but let's say PHX wants to extract as much value as they can for him so they can pivot to a rebuild (trading Durant as well, etc..). Since this team does NOT have a war chest of assets that means trading away key young players PLUS picks to acquire him. PHX is not going to value Ant\Grant\Ayton\oft injured RW3 or Thybulle, no one believes that.

That means POR has TWO picks to trade, let's even say 3 as they trade their 25' pick (would have to happen at the draft, unlikely), the best of the 29' picks (they cannot trade both due to 28' pick issue\Stepien) and 31' 1st. So (3) 1st's + 2 young players.

Scoot? Sharpe? Camara? Deni? take your pick, and even with adding Booker, does anyone really think surrounding him with Simons\Ayton\Grant is going to lead this team anywhere significant? Of course not, b\c those 3 players are overrated, always have been. There is a big difference between a team having one of those players in a support role and having to rely on all three of them in starting roles.

Now if POR did have a war chest, then maybe they COULD acquire a guy like Booker without having to sacrifice Deni or Camara or Scoot in the deal, the guys that actually HAVE good value and are the reason for this teams' improved play this year, the rest of the NBA sees what we do. They know who the real players of worth are on this team and it surely isn't Simons\Grant or Ayton.

and yes that trade that Olshey made with CHI\CLE was one of the WORST deals any POR GM made, and a direct result of his overvaluation of his own players and unwillingness to part with one of his guys to take a chance to put a legitimate contender around Dame, same reason they never got Aaron Gordon, and Cronin is built from the same mold, he just doesn't come with all the narcissism

Teams are not going to just gift us elite talent.

Exactly, all the more reason why it is critical to build through the draft or acquire as many young player\picks (war chest) that you can to overwhelm a team in order to acquire such a player but without gutting your own team in the process.

and the fact that you and most fans can see this but it eludes Cronin says everything one needs to know about his incompetence.

[JasonStern]

I just respectfully disagree with this sentiment, first off Ayton is not going to re-sign in POR for $12mil, and even if your point is POR could sign him or Simons for less and therefore they would be a fine fit for this team, I think that is wishful thinking at best.

Which, again is fine. If they outplay their current contracts, you have two winning players that outplayed their current contracts. If they don't, you offer a reasonable contract. And if they don't accept that, you have over $50M in cap space freed after next season.

You might be able to flip either this off-season. But they are expirings. And while both are young enough not to have peaked yet, they have enough playing time that you know what you are getting. So, you're either taking on long-term contracts to get value. Or, best case, getting a late pick that is 95% likely to be some Kris Murray tier player.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I just respectfully disagree with this sentiment, first off Ayton is not going to re-sign in POR for $12mil, and even if your point is POR could sign him or Simons for less and therefore they would be a fine fit for this team, I think that is wishful thinking at best.

Which, again is fine. If they outplay their current contracts, you have two winning players that outplayed their current contracts. If they don't, you offer a reasonable contract. And if they don't accept that, you have over $50M in cap space freed after next season.

You might be able to flip either this off-season. But they are expirings. And while both are young enough not to have peaked yet, they have enough playing time that you know what you are getting. So, you're either taking on long-term contracts to get value. Or, best case, getting a late pick that is 95% likely to be some Kris Murray tier player.

Kinda relates to our other discussion. Your approach is probably more likely to win more games over the next several years. The alternative gamble you make is that the 5% chance at players better than Kris PLUS the whatever% chance you score in the lottery launches you much higher than the likes of Simons and Ayton. Nothing is guaranteed, not even getting positive contributions from retaining the veterans.