Official Santana Trade thread

[horaceworthy]

Dwight Howard doesnt cost 150 mil, plus Howard's best years are ahead of him, Johan prob has 2 or 3 dominant years as much.... Small market teams dont have the $ to pay what Johans is asking for... thats why you have to trade him right???

Yanks had the best offer, you guys let it slip away, imo big error.. well see what happens...

BTW, im a Yankee fan.

Really, we couldn't tell.

Howard costs 80+ million in a league with a salary cap. His average salary will be about $17-18 million. Johan's looking for a 6 year deal that pays him $20 million a year. The Twins offered him that money for 4 years. They aren't far off on the money, it's the years that are the issue.

The Yanks offered up the best prospect, it may not have been the best offer, especially given Minnesota's needs. The problem with NYY's offer was that the Twins would have to put all their eggs in Hughes's basket. It's very risky to do that with any young pitcher, no matter the quality, and the inability of Hughes to make it through a full season healthy is also a bit of a concern in that area. That's why the Twins were asking for another prospect or two from the Yanks.

Teams are so reluctant to trade there young studs because of what they can be. Maybe Hughes won't be as good as Santana, but in 3 years when you can start the see the wear and tear on Santana, Hughes is going to be 24 years old, where as Santana will be 32. Not only was it Hughes, but the yankees best OF prospect (Tabata) and Melky.

It would be the same thing as 2 years ago with Liriano. I'm sure every single one of you fans would of called Liriano absouletly untouchable 2 years ago, and even still probably do, even after his surgery. It's the same situation.

Hughes is more likely to show any wear and tear than Santana, especially if he's asked to pitch major innings in the next two years. Santana's never ranked higher than 50th in Pitcher Abuse Points, or thrown more than 120 pitches in a start. Don't let the amount of innings fool you. He's also shown he can make it through a full season healthy, something Hughes has yet to do.

Hughes and Liriano aren't quite the same case. Hughes posted just about league average numbers last season. The year before, Liriano posted an ERA over 2 runs better than league average and over a K an inning. He was arguably better than Santana that year. That's the main reason he was ruled untouchable. The same can't be said of Hughes.

[daddyfivestar]

Apparently only some teams are "reluctant to trade there young studs":
From last years pre-season top 100 prospects these guys have moved in the past weeks.
Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Delmon, Matt Garza, Lastings Milledge, Tyler Clippard, Elijah Dukes, plus Barton rule 5.

[Wade2k6]

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Hughes is more likely to show any wear and tear than Santana, especially if he's asked to pitch major innings in the next two years. Santana's never ranked higher than 50th in Pitcher Abuse Points, or thrown more than 120 pitches in a start. Don't let the amount of innings fool you. He's also shown he can make it through a full season healthy, something Hughes has yet to do.

Hughes and Liriano aren't quite the same case. Hughes posted just about league average numbers last season. The year before, Liriano posted an ERA over 2 runs better than league average and over a K an inning. He was arguably better than Santana that year. That's the main reason he was ruled untouchable. The same can't be said of Hughes.

The Yankees are going to monitor his innings most likely (would be the smart thing to do). IMO he should only pitch about 150-155 innings this year. Then 2 years from now maybe 175-185. Then by the time he's 24 he should be able to go all out. At least from what I've read and seen on sites that seems like there plan with him. I guess their plan is to build up his arm strength now so in the future the wear and tear of the season won't show. You can bet the Yankees will be as cautious as possible with both Joba and Hughes. This was Hughes first MLB season too, so it takes some getting used too. What set Hughes back was that groin injury that had him missing over a month. It took him a while to come back from the injury once he actually got back too.

During September and October he went 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in Sept and 1.59 ERA in October.

[horaceworthy]

I'm not trying to say Hughes sucks. I'm just stating that he has yet to show he can make it through a full season healthy (the issues last year are less troubling than the arm soreness that shut him down early in previous years), and that Liriano was a slightly different case before his injury, since he could very well have been considered the best pitcher in baseball.

[kg2005]

Hughes is a perfect pitching prospect. I still think we should have made that trade.

[Carpe Diem]

Hughes is a perfect pitching prospect. I still think we should have made that trade.

Agreed. But on the other hand, are the Yankees going to lose out because they fail to include a upper prospect (Kennedy) or two lower level prospects (Howe, jackson, tabatha, etc).

The idea that Johann is 29 is not that relevant in an era where pitchers are going into their late 30's. Hughes, albeit a great prospect, is no sure thing.

The team receiving santana is gaining the best pitcher in baseball for ages 29-34---his prime years. Whether Hughes et al work out or not, it is a no brainer at the talent level. Adding the salary is another story.

[younggunsmn]

Yankees had the best offer, but it still was a lowball offer.
Take Melky Cabrera out of the offer, (PLEASE!).
This is the trade I think both teams could accept:

Santana
Rincon

for

Hughes
Kennedy
Austin Jackson

If it's true the Twins came back and asked for:
Hughes, Cabrera, Jeff Marquez and a lesser prospect

and the Yankees turned them down,

then the Yankees are the ones who screwed up IMO because they put the Red Sox in the driver's seat now. Steinbrenner now publicly backing off his "hard deadline" comments shows a renewed desperation to keep him from the Red Sox.

The Mets can still get him if they are willing to include John Maine and their 2 Stud Outfield prospects. All the Dodgers have to do is mention Matt Kemp and their offer tops the Yankees offer.

The stakes went up in the American League when the Tigers landed Cabrera and Willis, which should only increase Johan's value to AL teams, because that lineup is going to destroy average pitching.

However in 2010 the Tigers will be right back at the bottom with Rodriguez, Sheffield, Ordonez, Rogers, Todd Jones, Sean Casey, Polanco all washed up/looking at retirement and Willis and Ordonez looking at Free Agency, with a depleted farm system.

[TheFranchise21]

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Teams are so reluctant to trade there young studs because of what they can be. Maybe Hughes won't be as good as Santana, but in 3 years when you can start the see the wear and tear on Santana, Hughes is going to be 24 years old, where as Santana will be 32. Not only was it Hughes, but the yankees best OF prospect (Tabata) and Melky.

It would be the same thing as 2 years ago with Liriano. I'm sure every single one of you fans would of called Liriano absouletly untouchable 2 years ago, and even still probably do, even after his surgery. It's the same situation.

Johan is 28, and will be 31 in three years.

I would bet Hughes will have more innings pitched at 28 than Santana did at 28. Santana didn't become a full-time starter until midway through the 2003 season when he was only 24. Hughes will be a full-time starter by the time he's 22. My point is, Santana has more good years in him than you think. I can't recall a single injury over the past 3 years with Johan. He keeps himself in very good condition and is a great athlete (evidenced by his Gold Glove).

However, you can't compare Hughes and pre-injury Liriano. Liriano dominated (with emphasis on dominated) for half a year. He pitched better (in the games he was healthy) than Johan that year and Johan won the Cy Young that year. Hughes only put up average numbers for a third of a season. Hughes best starts came in September against teams that were clearly out of the playoff race and barely in contention at best. Liriano dominated about a third of the season through all the way up until 3 weeks after the AS break against teams still in the hunt.

I'm reaching here but here goes...

Scott Baker pitched better than Hughes his first year in the league, granted Baker was 3 years older than Hughes. Based off his first year in the majors, would I have taken a 21 year old Scott Baker over a 28 year old Johan Santana? In a word, no.

That said and all monetary factors aside, would I take Phil Hughes right now over Johan Santana? No.

Lastly, I highly doubt Tabata was the third player in the Yankees proposal. All the media outlets were reporting Hughes, Cabrera and a mid-level prospect. I take mid-level as decent prospect, not very good prospect like Tabata.

[daddyfivestar]

Reports said that the 3rd player was a pitcher, Jeff Marquez, and that NY also considered sweetening that with a 4th, Hilligloss a mid level prospect infielder, but Minny was a solid NO to that. They want one of Kennedy, Tabata, or Jackson as the 3rd player.

[kg2005]

Baker != Hughes

[daddyfivestar]

With the Infield spruced up now (Harris 2b, Everett Ss, Lamb 3b, Punto Util), the need for an infielder in a Santana deal is lower.
It comes down to this: Who has the better Package: Starting Pitcher, Centerfielder, Minor League Pitching Prospect.

NYY: Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, ?
Bos: ?, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson
NYM: Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber

And can the Twins snatch a 4th player out of the deal...Marlins and A's have done well to grab mid level 4th and 5th guys.

[kg2005]

Please Yankees, overpay us.

[TheFranchise21]

I hate Sid Hartman. He needs to retire already. In his Sunday column, he claims the Yankees "Won't Give Up Hughes" when it already has been established for weeks that the Yankees offer included Hughes. His "Yankee sources" tell him they won't give him up in any deal. Where has this idiot been the past couple of weeks?

[Worm Guts]

Hughes is a perfect pitching prospect.

I remember when the Twins traded Frank Viola. David West was supposed this big time pitching prospect and the key to the deal. He flopped big time. Luckily we also got Aguilera and Tapani.
I think it's incredibly risky to trade Santana for only one legitimate prospect.

[kg2005]

I don't know anything about David West, so I can't argue with you about that. Of course a Santana trade is going to be risky on out part, but I prefer quality over quantity. The whole point of the trade wouldn't be just Hughes either, there's still 22 year old center fielder Melky Cabrera and then a prospect like Austin Jackson or Jose Tabata.

[daddyfivestar]

David West was the player the Mets 'couldn't part with' and Tapani was the main cog. Aguilera was a throw-in (not really a throw-in but an 'additional' major league arm) who the Twins wisely tried as a closer and the rest is history. Same might be said for Heilman if the the Twins and Mets deal.
West was can't miss but never did better than 4th or 5th starter.

[Worm Guts]

I don't know anything about David West, so I can't argue with you about that. Of course a Santana trade is going to be risky on out part, but I prefer quality over quantity. The whole point of the trade wouldn't be just Hughes either, there's still 22 year old center fielder Melky Cabrera and then a prospect like Austin Jackson or Jose Tabata.

I thought one of the sticking points is that the Yankees weren't willing to give up a significant prospect along with Hughes and Cabrera. I thought the 3rd guy was a mildly regarded triple-A SS.

[TheFranchise21]

If the third player was Jackson or Tabata Johan would be a Yankee right now.

[dunkonu21]

I have been hoping for Cano this whole proccess....and now I have some hope now that they held out Cano from summer ball....

[TSC25]

Deolis Guerra, rhp Born: April 17, 1989