The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went

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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#601 » by Exp0sed » Fri Feb 28, 2025 1:35 am

TMac Culloch wrote:I'm actually alright with them not retaining KCP more than Bruce Brown and Jeff Green

Celtics are my least favorite team and I admire what they did in the offseason. I hated Mavs for letting Chandler go after the championship..

If you can get another chip you maximize the window no matter the cost

Exp0sed wrote:
TMac Culloch wrote:Not retaining key pieces of a championship team to dodge the luxury tax should be universally disparaged. Do you have a personal relationship with Calvin Boothe?

Nuggets have no depth except for Westbrook and he asked to go there




Nuggets are 7M below the 2nd apron rn, they'd be well over it with KCP


Brown was a great fit but he was a FA and the Pacers intentionally overpayed to pry him from all the other suitors (not just the Nuggets), he got 2/45 a couple of years back, that'll be like 30 per year now. that's a crazy amount to pay Bruce Brown off the bench...
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#602 » by LeBronSpaghetti » Fri Feb 28, 2025 2:33 am

Threat title becomes more and more of a joke with each passing game
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#603 » by Woodsanity » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:33 am

Would be competing for 1st overall pick without jokic
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#604 » by Infinite Llamas » Fri Feb 28, 2025 4:05 am

The narrative never went anywhere.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#605 » by bmurph128 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 5:31 am

Sharkboy242 wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:So Jokic has found a way to stay with Denver and keep a great/positive attitude while putting up historic numbers. This is how you do it and not run away to the next team because they have a new shiny star/superstar to help with your legacy.

Exactly. If you take the logical conclusion of people who constantly advocate for "X great player needs to go here to win", then all the top players in the league should be teaming up and creating super teams. We'd all love that, right?


I don't know about love....but the NBA is certainly more popular when there are super teams
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#606 » by jym85 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 5:32 am

still a pretty bad team around him
he's just that amazing
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#607 » by Peregrine01 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 6:35 am

How can anyone, let alone a Nuggets fan, look at how the Nuggets fall apart like clockwork whenever Jokic sits and think that his team wouldn't be a top 3 lottery team without him is beyond me.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#608 » by Raps in 4 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:00 pm

Last night:

Jokic: 32 points on 16 shots

Murray and MPJ: 32 points on 42 shots

Get this man some help. This is actually criminal.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#609 » by Raps in 4 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:01 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:How can anyone, let alone a Nuggets fan, look at how the Nuggets fall apart like clockwork whenever Jokic sits and think that his team wouldn't be a top 3 lottery team without him is beyond me.


I'd be livid if I was a Nuggets fan. They've completely failed to build a sustained winner around a generational talent. The only reason they have even one title is because Murray got hot during a playoff run. That doesn't happen often, and probably won't happen again. Unless Jokic leaves the Nuggets, he's retiring with one ring.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#610 » by bovice » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:09 pm

so according to OP, scoring 20 PPG for 10 games makes you a good player. nice analysis!

LeBron had Shaq on his team once. he won multiple MVPs and FMVPs and scored 30+ PPG a few years. I don't want to hear that LeBron never had help!

see I can be a wetard too :D
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#611 » by DimesandKnicks » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:19 pm

yellowknifer wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
It doesn't show that. Though Caruso being a top 10 defender doesn't seem surprising at all.

But RAPM usurps our eye test because it work better than our or anyone's eye test. It's 2025, the debates over if RAPM works or if NBA team's use it is over. It's our most powerful tool to judge what's happening that our eyes aren't seeing.


You’re using it, how is it calculated? Imagine it has Draymond Green as a top ten player in the last 29 years and has Mike Conley and Lilliard having an equal impact. I’d throw that **** away in the trash where it belongs


Caruso is truly an amazing defender. Also all the talk about rim protection and ignoring that OKC is playing some all time level defense and hasn’t needed much at all because they are so effective horizontally. Having Chet back will help, but they don’t need it since most teams struggle to get in the paint against them in the first place.

Also Jokic is a good defender. Watch him in their title run. Guy was hustling like crazy and constantly in good position. He definitely bothers people he is near too.


Are you saying Isiah Hartenstein isn't a great defender and rim protector?

And to your second point. The data just doesn't show that. He doesn't bother people he's near and when he's actually trying to do more than just be near their percentages are almost identical. This makes him a cone
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#612 » by DimesandKnicks » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:22 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
How could it not? It can't NOT look at role as that's what they're doing on the court.


You’re saying it does, I’m asking you how. FYI I watched that video like a year ago when you all first started talking about RAPM


Because the player is playing in their role when on the court. I'm not sure what else I can say to that. It can only show what is happening on the court. But we as humans know that one on one Dray isn't beating a lot of players, but in his role he's far more valuable to his team than those guys. But I can't swap Lebron and Green and expect Green to have the same impact in Lebron's role.


If you can't articulate how thi metric incorporates a players role into that final number than why say it does? What does these numbers even mean? Serious question. Conley and Lilliard play the same position, their "total" number is 5.1. What does that number actually mean and how does Conley's role and Lilliard's role make it make sense that they have the same number.

When I gave you the DFGA FGA Contested Shot etc. data I highlighted how these metrics where determined and even admitting I could be wrong by framing them that way, but it seems like you championing a metric that you yourself don't really understand
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#613 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:29 pm

DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
You’re saying it does, I’m asking you how. FYI I watched that video like a year ago when you all first started talking about RAPM


Because the player is playing in their role when on the court. I'm not sure what else I can say to that. It can only show what is happening on the court. But we as humans know that one on one Dray isn't beating a lot of players, but in his role he's far more valuable to his team than those guys. But I can't swap Lebron and Green and expect Green to have the same impact in Lebron's role.


If you can't articulate how thi metric incorporates a players role into that final number than why say it does? What does these numbers even mean? Serious question. Conley and Lilliard play the same position, their "total" number is 5.1. What does that number actually mean and how does Conley's role and Lilliard's role make it make sense that they have the same number.

When I gave you the DFGA FGA Contested Shot etc. data I highlighted how these metrics where determined and even admitting I could be wrong by framing them that way, but it seems like you championing a metric that you yourself don't really understand


I'm seriously so confused by these questions I'm not sure I can answer. I said the sky is blue and you're asking me to explain blue.

The stat shows the impact you have on a game, on a per 100 basis, based on the lineup results. That's all it does. What is confusing you about that?
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#614 » by DimesandKnicks » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:36 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Because the player is playing in their role when on the court. I'm not sure what else I can say to that. It can only show what is happening on the court. But we as humans know that one on one Dray isn't beating a lot of players, but in his role he's far more valuable to his team than those guys. But I can't swap Lebron and Green and expect Green to have the same impact in Lebron's role.


If you can't articulate how thi metric incorporates a players role into that final number than why say it does? What does these numbers even mean? Serious question. Conley and Lilliard play the same position, their "total" number is 5.1. What does that number actually mean and how does Conley's role and Lilliard's role make it make sense that they have the same number.

When I gave you the DFGA FGA Contested Shot etc. data I highlighted how these metrics where determined and even admitting I could be wrong by framing them that way, but it seems like you championing a metric that you yourself don't really understand


I'm seriously so confused by these questions I'm not sure I can answer. I said the sky is blue and you're asking me to explain blue.

The stat shows the impact you have on a game, on a per 100 basis, based on the line results. That's all it does. What is confusing you about that?


You gave us a 15 minute video to explain a very complex metric and now you acting like its simple. I don't understand how these questions are confusing.

Lilliard and Conley play the same position. According to RAPM Conley ads 4.7 points of offense to his team while reducing -0.4 points on defense, this makes his "total" 5.1 one correct (This would be what I'd expect to be the sort of answer to the question that your confused by)?

Lilliard adds 6.0 points of offense to his team while giving up 0.9 points on defense making his number 5.1 just as Conley. How does the role that these two players play contribute to these numbers? Conley isn't as offensively aggressive and is more of a floor general so it impact X, Lilliard is more aggressive offensively, changing his role so it impact X?

As far as my research, how I broke this down is what this final number reflects, but your telling me no, it also considers there role...
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#615 » by MrPainfulTruth » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:50 pm

This thread is a cesspool of Joker haters from various sources that neednt be pointed out to most of us. I am so sick of watching Murray trot down with the ball just to dribble stationary for 20 more seconds and jack up a contested shot or just plain throw away the ball. Or MPJ throw up 20 bricks on uncontested 3's in a row. Every time they play a competitive team they plain SUCK A** and Jokic carries a greater load than anoyne i've ever seen in the last 25 years. He has guys in their rotation that would be G League on most rosters...but be assured when they happen to win against some tanking team, Murray will have 30 , MPJ will have 30 and we get to read garbage takes like this threads' OP.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#616 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:51 pm

DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
If you can't articulate how thi metric incorporates a players role into that final number than why say it does? What does these numbers even mean? Serious question. Conley and Lilliard play the same position, their "total" number is 5.1. What does that number actually mean and how does Conley's role and Lilliard's role make it make sense that they have the same number.

When I gave you the DFGA FGA Contested Shot etc. data I highlighted how these metrics where determined and even admitting I could be wrong by framing them that way, but it seems like you championing a metric that you yourself don't really understand


I'm seriously so confused by these questions I'm not sure I can answer. I said the sky is blue and you're asking me to explain blue.

The stat shows the impact you have on a game, on a per 100 basis, based on the line results. That's all it does. What is confusing you about that?


You gave us a 15 minute video to explain a very complex metric and now you acting like its simple. I don't understand how these questions are confusing.

Lilliard and Conley play the same position. According to RAPM Conley ads 4.7 points of offense to his team while reducing -0.4 points on defense, this makes his "total" 5.1 one correct (This would be what I'd expect to be the sort of answer to the question that your confused by)?

Lilliard adds 6.0 points of offense to his team while giving up 0.9 points on defense making his number 5.1 just as Conley. How does the role that these two players play contribute to these numbers? Conley isn't as offensively aggressive and is more of a floor general so it impact X, Lilliard is more aggressive offensively, changing his role so it impact X?

As far as my research, how I broke this down is what this final number reflects, but your telling me no, it also considers there role...


I think you're confusing the role stuff.

The stat doesn't know or care what your role is. Positions don't matter or factor in. It's just looking at your impact. But that impact has the context of a role and what you're doing on the court. I can't just have 5 Lilliards or 5 Conley's on the court at once.

The READER of the stat has to interpret the metric with an understanding of roles. Now if a floor general role more important than a primary scorer role? Again as I keep telling you, this isn't a metric that you use to rank players. What it's doing is very simple. It's solving for your impact on the floor based on play by play data. That's it. The complex part is all the matrix stuff that people always ask about because people want some simple "Points * rebounds / assists = RAPM" type thing. And this isn't that. What makes RAPM a really great metric is that it doesn't use ANY of that crap. It only looks at the lineup and the results of each play. Score 0-4 points and if you're on offense or defense for that play.

But then you're trying to look at this 29 year example someone gave which is just more confusing because it's what you did over your career that falls in that 29 years. IMO that example is beyond **** for ranking stuff. But it's telling if a guy is a career plus defender...it means their team is 100% for SURE better with them on defense doing whatever the coaches are having them do. You just can't deny that once the sample is 5+ years. But I don't know how much else you can get. And if a guy had a peak and a valley....again kinda noisy and useless. Which is why i keep saying it's not a good way to compare or rank people. 1 and 3 year RAPM is better for that purpose.

Also I think you're looking at xRAPM...which requires another piece to explain...but I don't think really helps this conversation.

So yes, that metric is saying that Liliard and Conley have a similar impact on the court over whatever time frame you data set is looking at. Which imo sounds reasonable if it's career. Mind you, I think Conley is a better player on most teams as I think Lilliard is overrated as a scorer. But for another thread.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#617 » by Peregrine01 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 4:08 pm

MrPainfulTruth wrote:This thread is a cesspool of Joker haters from various sources that neednt be pointed out to most of us. I am so sick of watching Murray trot down with the ball just to dribble stationary for 20 more seconds and jack up a contested shot or just plain throw away the ball. Or MPJ throw up 20 bricks on uncontested 3's in a row. Every time they play a competitive team they plain SUCK A** and Jokic carries a greater load than anoyne i've ever seen in the last 25 years. He has guys in their rotation that would be G League on most rosters...but be assured when they happen to win against some tanking team, Murray will have 30 , MPJ will have 30 and we get to read garbage takes like this threads' OP.


If neither of them had played with Jokic, there’s a very real possibility that both would’ve faded into obscurity. Injury-prone, inconsistent and one-dimensional players don’t tend to last in this league. Instead they’re gonna combine for $100 million a year. What a capricious world.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#618 » by DimesandKnicks » Fri Feb 28, 2025 5:02 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Well, you do make a good point on the minutes played. Of course that makes the first point, that teams actively are looking to shoot against him weaker. So if we take the one we need to take into account the other. But I'll leave it that I think teams do want to target shooting against Jokic. They however get into a world of hurt with his hands.


I'd say the fact that players shoot really high percentages against him still makes a strong argument that players are happy to score against him. It really just discards your argument that Jokic is such a great defender because he's "present" to defend the most shots, despite seemingly not grasping the absurdity that despite being present to defend over 20 shots he's only actually defending 5....while playing significantly more minutes then all of his cohorts. This is measurably the bottom of the barrell.

dhsilv2 wrote:Now to the activity and you can do your minutes thing and just this if you want. But Jokic is 3rd among anyone listed at center in terms of distance traveled on defense and first in defensive field goals against.


According to the data:

Distance in miles on defense ranked:

Sabonis, Gobert, Towns, Poetl, Wemby, Bam, Markkanen, then Jokic, MPJ travels more. None of these players have anything in common. I'm not sure where your getting your data from. And again when you consider that he's averaging three to four minutes more than all these players, this doesn't mean anything. It's like your assigning value to metrics that don't mean what you think they do while undermining the importance of very clear metrics illustrating his lack of effort defensively. He is 7th out of the 14th players I looked up, and If i looked up more he'd likely be in the lower twenties in FGA relative to minutes...but as those FGA per minute drop show do those contested shots..i.e it might look like defending 18 shots and only contest 3. I'm sure we can both agree this reflects really poorly on his defensive effort more than the distance he travels.


dhsilv2 wrote:The two are important together because on most plays, teams dont take a shot against Jokic. But they are hunting the paint. Jokic does a great job of NOT being a matador in that his big wide body stays between the basket and the driver and teams have to pass out vs risking offensive fouls and despite Jokic being who he is, teams still often choose to kick back out.


Jokic hasn't drawn a single charge this season. And how can you say a player is good at keeping himself between the basket and drivers when last year he was second to last in defending drives and among the worst at actually contesting, which is still a part at staying between a drive and the basket. This is the part when he becomes an absolute matador, from drive to layup...and its measurable.

dhsilv2 wrote:And again Gobert is a DPOY, a defensive god, but he looks like a poor defender in highlight packages when his teammates fail to do their jobs so lets not run these highlights of jokic without seeing the defensive breakdown.


Gobert looks like a bad defender when he has to defend on the perimeter. He's elite at doing what you want your C to do. Jokic is bad at defending on the perimeter and bad at defending the rim, and these highlight packages (the one I sent was one game against the wors offense in the league) highlight the latter.

dhsilv2 wrote:But Jokic doesn't just keep between the rim and the player but he has those active hands and he's great at disrupting passes as players pass by and over him. Even if he doesn't get a hand on it, he makes it a harder pass. When you pass over someone, sometimes it takes long to get there, giving teammates more time to recover for example. And back to being active


Again, according to the metrics he does not to a good job of keeping between the rim and the player. He has great hands no argument here, but that doesn't make up for showing embarrsinly low effort at actually contesting shots. You whole argument seems to be, he's great at being position, mine is maybe but once he's in position he's god awful at actually defending...which in my opinion makes him not a plus or average defender but a bad one.


dhsilv2 wrote:...while consistently staying in defensive position, he's (or he was when I looked it up) 3rd in the league in steals AND deflections. Again, Jokic isn't a guy gambling to high levels.


I'd would say swiping down on drives instead of putting two hands up or going vertical is gambling. But agree to disagree

dhsilv2 wrote:I don't have this year numbers he but he gets like 50-75 kicked balls a year, which while kinda shady and iffy imo...
that's resetting the shot clock to 16 and that's like 1 a game. It's a LOT. There's no reasonable person who could take the above and not give Jokic credit for hustling on defense and being in the top 25% of big men in hustle. If maybe you want to use that verse effort...ok. Just trying to get us on the same page with this.


So once a game he resets the shot clock and the other team can just score on the next possession? Playing defense with your hands and feet has always been considered lazy. And kick balls, deflections and steals don't impact and intimidate offenses the way that actual rim protection and man to man defense does. Sure, its great that he does it and i'll give him all the credit in the world for it...but how can you say with a straight face that this makes him in the top 25 percent in big man hustle, when he's also only actually defending 25 percent of FGA against him. At most, these things have to cancel eachother out, but in earnest defending more shots - i hope we can both agree - would be more impactful than a deflection a game.


All of these little things add up. Now, I've tried to get you to offer ANY even acknowledgement that there's something other than contested shots. As we both agree that in a perfect world, a contested shot without a foul is better. Where I think we're not seeing eye to eye is that, I don't think Jokic is very good at contesting most shots. So I don't see the big deal with him not contesting. He isn't someone like say Wiggins who actually was built for defense who not contesting is terrible. Jokic is tall but he doesn't seem to have enough value in his vertical defense. I'd much rather he uses his hands, stay as best he can between the ball and the rim, and not foul.


Kentucky, you don't think the bold is a weird statement. Honest question. It's a huge deal that he isn't good at contesting shots, and an even bigger deal that he isn't even trying. While giving him credit for swiping at the ball. Look at the highlight reel, most of these layups are after Jokic swipes down and when he fails it leads to an easy layup. How many of these does he do versus how many he actually gets? How much more valuable would it be if he remained between the player and the basket instead of taking himself out of the play by swiping down - which is not staying between the ball and the rim? If he isn't good at contesting, than that's a point against how good he is defensively. We can't just throw copium on it.


[/quote]Also and just because I just thought of it. But Jokic even seems to get back on defense better than about half of centers. And we both know he's not the fastest guy out there. For the love of god give this big dude some love there! I've seen AD who's way faster have games where he's the last man back way too much. And heaven forbid we talk about some of the guys you listed as better than Jokic....still not letting you get away with Drummond![/quote]

This is nothing but an opinion.
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#619 » by DimesandKnicks » Fri Feb 28, 2025 5:13 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
I'm seriously so confused by these questions I'm not sure I can answer. I said the sky is blue and you're asking me to explain blue.

The stat shows the impact you have on a game, on a per 100 basis, based on the line results. That's all it does. What is confusing you about that?


You gave us a 15 minute video to explain a very complex metric and now you acting like its simple. I don't understand how these questions are confusing.

Lilliard and Conley play the same position. According to RAPM Conley ads 4.7 points of offense to his team while reducing -0.4 points on defense, this makes his "total" 5.1 one correct (This would be what I'd expect to be the sort of answer to the question that your confused by)?

Lilliard adds 6.0 points of offense to his team while giving up 0.9 points on defense making his number 5.1 just as Conley. How does the role that these two players play contribute to these numbers? Conley isn't as offensively aggressive and is more of a floor general so it impact X, Lilliard is more aggressive offensively, changing his role so it impact X?

As far as my research, how I broke this down is what this final number reflects, but your telling me no, it also considers there role...


I think you're confusing the role stuff.

The stat doesn't know or care what your role is. Positions don't matter or factor in. It's just looking at your impact. But that impact has the context of a role and what you're doing on the court. I can't just have 5 Lilliards or 5 Conley's on the court at once.

The READER of the stat has to interpret the metric with an understanding of roles. Now if a floor general role more important than a primary scorer role? Again as I keep telling you, this isn't a metric that you use to rank players. What it's doing is very simple. It's solving for your impact on the floor based on play by play data. That's it. The complex part is all the matrix stuff that people always ask about because people want some simple "Points * rebounds / assists = RAPM" type thing. And this isn't that. What makes RAPM a really great metric is that it doesn't use ANY of that crap. It only looks at the lineup and the results of each play. Score 0-4 points and if you're on offense or defense for that play.

But then you're trying to look at this 29 year example someone gave which is just more confusing because it's what you did over your career that falls in that 29 years. IMO that example is beyond **** for ranking stuff. But it's telling if a guy is a career plus defender...it means their team is 100% for SURE better with them on defense doing whatever the coaches are having them do. You just can't deny that once the sample is 5+ years. But I don't know how much else you can get. And if a guy had a peak and a valley....again kinda noisy and useless. Which is why i keep saying it's not a good way to compare or rank people. 1 and 3 year RAPM is better for that purpose.

Also I think you're looking at xRAPM...which requires another piece to explain...but I don't think really helps this conversation.

So yes, that metric is saying that Liliard and Conley have a similar impact on the court over whatever time frame you data set is looking at. Which imo sounds reasonable if it's career. Mind you, I think Conley is a better player on most teams as I think Lilliard is overrated as a scorer. But for another thread.


I don't think you know as much about this metric your championing as you think you do but after making statements like the bold I makes it hard to take you seriously. Advance stats are to supplement what we already know about basketball or explainthings that we might be missing, not to completely rely on them independent of human intervention.

https://www.nbarapm.com/

Current Metrics
These impact metrics attempt to measure how a player impacts the game in points per 100 relative to an average player.


Again, I assume that that total value means exactly the above, how many points per 100 a player impacts. I don't think Conley and Lilliard impacts the game at identical levels. Idt that if you traded prime Conley and sent him to the Blazers with Mccolumn post Aldridge and sent Lilliard to play with ground and pound that they'd impact their teams similiarly and I'm not going to champion a data set that says they do.
lessthanjake
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Re: The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went 

Post#620 » by lessthanjake » Fri Feb 28, 2025 6:06 pm

DimesandKnicks wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
DimesandKnicks wrote:
You gave us a 15 minute video to explain a very complex metric and now you acting like its simple. I don't understand how these questions are confusing.

Lilliard and Conley play the same position. According to RAPM Conley ads 4.7 points of offense to his team while reducing -0.4 points on defense, this makes his "total" 5.1 one correct (This would be what I'd expect to be the sort of answer to the question that your confused by)?

Lilliard adds 6.0 points of offense to his team while giving up 0.9 points on defense making his number 5.1 just as Conley. How does the role that these two players play contribute to these numbers? Conley isn't as offensively aggressive and is more of a floor general so it impact X, Lilliard is more aggressive offensively, changing his role so it impact X?

As far as my research, how I broke this down is what this final number reflects, but your telling me no, it also considers there role...


I think you're confusing the role stuff.

The stat doesn't know or care what your role is. Positions don't matter or factor in. It's just looking at your impact. But that impact has the context of a role and what you're doing on the court. I can't just have 5 Lilliards or 5 Conley's on the court at once.

The READER of the stat has to interpret the metric with an understanding of roles. Now if a floor general role more important than a primary scorer role? Again as I keep telling you, this isn't a metric that you use to rank players. What it's doing is very simple. It's solving for your impact on the floor based on play by play data. That's it. The complex part is all the matrix stuff that people always ask about because people want some simple "Points * rebounds / assists = RAPM" type thing. And this isn't that. What makes RAPM a really great metric is that it doesn't use ANY of that crap. It only looks at the lineup and the results of each play. Score 0-4 points and if you're on offense or defense for that play.

But then you're trying to look at this 29 year example someone gave which is just more confusing because it's what you did over your career that falls in that 29 years. IMO that example is beyond **** for ranking stuff. But it's telling if a guy is a career plus defender...it means their team is 100% for SURE better with them on defense doing whatever the coaches are having them do. You just can't deny that once the sample is 5+ years. But I don't know how much else you can get. And if a guy had a peak and a valley....again kinda noisy and useless. Which is why i keep saying it's not a good way to compare or rank people. 1 and 3 year RAPM is better for that purpose.

Also I think you're looking at xRAPM...which requires another piece to explain...but I don't think really helps this conversation.

So yes, that metric is saying that Liliard and Conley have a similar impact on the court over whatever time frame you data set is looking at. Which imo sounds reasonable if it's career. Mind you, I think Conley is a better player on most teams as I think Lilliard is overrated as a scorer. But for another thread.


I don't think you know as much about this metric your championing as you think you do but after making statements like the bold I makes it hard to take you seriously. Advance stats are to supplement what we already know about basketball or explainthings that we might be missing, not to completely rely on them independent of human intervention.

https://www.nbarapm.com/

Current Metrics
These impact metrics attempt to measure how a player impacts the game in points per 100 relative to an average player.


Again, I assume that that total value means exactly the above, how many points per 100 a player impacts. I don't think Conley and Lilliard impacts the game at identical levels. Idt that if you traded prime Conley and sent him to the Blazers with Mccolumn post Aldridge and sent Lilliard to play with ground and pound that they'd impact their teams similiarly and I'm not going to champion a data set that says they do.


You seem to be trying very hard to justify ignoring RAPM, because it doesn’t say what you think it should. But here’s the thing. DRAPM says Jokic is a good (but not great) defender. But it doesn’t say that by disagreeing with what your eye test is telling you. It says Jokic is a good defender despite not actually saying Jokic is good at limiting opponents’ scoring efficiency. There’s RAPM measures (including at the website you linked above) that break down where the impact is coming from. And that shows Jokic being neutral at best in terms of affecting opponents’ eFG% (and worse than neutral compared to other bigs).

So how does he still look like a good defender in terms of RAPM? Well, a player’s effect on opponents’ eFG% is far from the entirety of that player’s defensive impact! RAPM tells us that Jokic also has a GOAT-level impact on his team’s defensive rebounding—which comes from him being both a fantastic rebounder himself, but also very good at sealing off his man. Defensive rebounds are a really big deal and Jokic derives a massive impact from this defensively. Another factor we see from RAPM is that he has great impact in terms of how much the other team gets to the FT line. This is presumably because Jokic is good at not fouling. Free throws are incredibly efficient offense, so not fouling is really good. And while his effect on opponents’ turnover rate isn’t good compared to all players as a whole, it’s better than most bigs—especially those that are major rim protectors.

A lot of this reflects a trade off. Jokic isn’t a good rim protector at all. He often doesn’t even really make an attempt to get a block in the paint. That definitely makes him easier to score on in the paint. But playing that way also means he’s typically in a better position to get a rebound or seal off his man, is less likely to foul, and is more often in a position to deflect or steal the ball. So the way Jokic plays defense has very clear positives and very clear negatives. And what we see from RAPM is that this trade off works out to have him be a good but not great defender.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.

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