Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[penbeast0]

I would agree to trade any of our 3 rooks if the draft value was good. But Sarr does have some JJJ type star potential (and some Jan Vesely bust potential) so it would take good value. Coulibaly also looks like he could achieve top 3 on a good team potential. Carrington and George have showed solid rotational value and all 4 of them are still very young.

Of course, no one likes to be the fool who traded (insert name here) if they do blow up, so there would have to be a bit of an overpay for someone that young. But I wouldn't say anyone is off limits for good value yet.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Guys you're all making good points but do you think that most players aren't going to have some contextual arguments for why a month went bad, injuries, coach was dumb, etc? These "excuses" will exist for all players. Regardless, by and large, you end up looking up pretty much any player and 95% of the time you'll see that a players resume by year 5 painted a pretty strong picture of what was possible after that.

Well in fairness, you kind of conveniently picked a month when talking about consistency where there were there were a number of factors at hand not to mention a very short month worth of basketball games given the break. If youre talking about consistency, he's been remarkably consistent since his let's call it his adjustment period to his new team. Context also does matter sometimes, it can't be ignored especially if you are going to look an 11 game sample to make it the fulcrum of your argument that.

Nate has dropped these statistics several times about how good he's been since that rocky start. Since December 2023/January 2024, he's been a consistently really good, two way player save for a 10 game stretch when moving to a new team to start this season. The evidence of this keeps piling up and keeps getting stronger.

But to your point, maybe he just is part of that 5% that is different from the norm.

[dckingsfan]

Guys you're all making good points but do you think that most players aren't going to have some contextual arguments for why a month went bad, injuries, coach was dumb, etc? These "excuses" will exist for all players. Regardless, by and large, you end up looking up pretty much any player and 95% of the time you'll see that a players resume by year 5 painted a pretty strong picture of what was possible after that.

Well in fairness, you kind of conveniently picked a month when talking about consistency where there were there were a number of factors at hand not to mention a very short month worth of basketball games given the break. If youre talking about consistency, he's been remarkably consistent since his let's call it his adjustment period to his new team. Context also does matter sometimes, it can't be ignored especially if you are going to look an 11 game sample to make it the fulcrum of your argument that.

Nate has dropped these statistics several times about how good he's been since that rocky start. Since December 2023/January 2024, he's been a consistently really good, two way player save for a 10 game stretch when moving to a new team to start this season. The evidence of this keeps piling up and keeps getting stronger.

But to your point, maybe he just is part of that 5% that is different from the norm.

And if you want to look at sample sizes, look year over year. Pretty consistent improvements, no?

[nate33]

It's also interesting to follow the Deni discussion over on the Blazers board, recall that their board was heated/divided and some thought they had given up too-much for him and they were hating on him initially, now they are in agreement that he is their best player.

That debate amongst themselves was largely heavily in favor of the trade by the end of December, with a couple of folks still holding out that they really like him as a player, but questioning the timing of bringing him in.

You go to their boards now (Blazers Edge on SB nation has a ton of activity compared to POR's RealGM traffic), and they are saying things like alpha in terms of him holding other teammates accountable, less than a season in.

I think by next season he's making an all-star case if Portland continues their upward trajectory.

He was everywhere in that game yesterday, just everywhere. Portland was up at 18 at one point but blew the lead once he went to the bench. Masterclass here against a really good team even with Mitchell out.

Watch on YouTube

You can like Bub but also come to the notion that this trade was a strategic failure all around. The team threw away a critical piece, on a great contract, it's that simple.

I finally got a chance to watch the highlights of this one. All I can say is

[doclinkin]

You can like Bub but also come to the notion that this trade was a strategic failure all around. The team threw away a critical piece, on a great contract, it's that simple.

"Threw away" depends on whether you think there is sufficient value in what is coming back. Nice that Deni is playing well, but if Bub has his first triple double some time before his 4th year, then you can say they made a decent pick. Hell, if Bub has a better rookie contract than Deni did, again, you can say this front office made a solid choice. But maybe you want to judge everything today and not wait 4 years. Is it reasonable to wait any amount of time before assigning an absolute value on the move?

There are those who would say that the trade can't be evaluated until that last pick is made, way down the road. I'm not that guy. Me I personally am suspending judgement of this front office until after the 2026 Draft. Up to that point every thing they are doing has to be under the light of the lingering decisions of the last GM. The strategy is bigger than one player.

To this end:

There is no question Deni makes this team better. Especially if you think the alternative was trading Kuz. (I don't think that option was on the table, but okay). How much better? Let's play it out.

Win score suggests Deni is worth +3.5 wins to the Blazers this year. Kuzma again posts a negative win score, to the tune of -1.2 games. Kuz simply does make his team worse by his own actions and those sharing the floor with him. Here in theory he was a team captain and was supposed to be the vet setting an example for the young players. Crappy. No doubt any team would prefer Deni over that if they're trying to win anything.

Despite that obvious fact we have leaned heavily on two high usage inefficient vets and forcefed them heavy minutes. Why. Strategically. Because the front office is stupid?

Show me an interview where either Dawkins or Winger come across as mentally challenged and unable to understand statistics. Consider how much $$$ the team is paying to have Directors of Data Science and Directors of Player Performance etc in a multi billion dollar industry. All 4 are terrible at their job?

No. It's because if we don't have guaranteed losses for 2 years straight, we lose out on the best free asset any team can have. A high draft pick.

I get that Win score is an iffy stat but we are using it as a placeholder for the purpose of this exercise. No matter what though Kuzma's negative effect on +/- suggests other players are worse when he is on the team. So we keep Deni (+3.5 wins) subtract Kuz (-1.2 wins) = ~ 5 games better. 16 wins this year. So far.

As of today 16 games would put us with the 3rd worst record. We drop past Charlotte and Utah and are one game ahead of the Pelicans (17 wins). A two game win streak at that point would put us behind Toronto for 6th place with 19 games. Just after them: Brooklyn who has dumped all winning ballast at the deadline and is on a 4 game freefall. 21 games but they are tied with Philly so passing either of them passes both. 8th place in the tank race. At 7th and 8th place we have a miniscule but non-zero chance of losing our top 10 pick to New York.

Unlikely that we slip that far? Yeah but not impossible. We'd be playing one fewer rookie in Bub. We wouldn't have been relying on an injured Brogdon. This year.

Next year? Say we don't lose our pick, and do draft well. Say the guy we pick instantly proves a +/- positive the second he steps on the floor. Maybe not a franchise player if we are not guaranteed a top 5 guy, maybe we didn't jump to the top with our worse odds. But I dunno. Asa Newell adds a shot of energy and moxie. Or Khaman Maluach proves an intimidating figure in the middle. And we land a Rasheer Fleming late in the draft or a CMB to shore up our muscle and rebounding. We are better, because we are drafting talent and the pool is deeper.

Only now our rookies have a year of seasoning. Deni is entering his prime and manages to add to the total number of wins. In 2026 we stand to lose our pick if we fall outside the top 8. Take that 5th-8th place finish this year, plus the breakout of a 3rd year Bilal, and the 2nd year growth from rookies. Deni's improvement and influence, which is what many cite as a top reason to keep him. How much better would we be in 2026? San Antonio has won 25 games this year. They're the 9th best team in the league. Prime Deni plus lotto talent plus seasoning is not worth 25 games? With the 9th worst record in the league we would have an 80% chance of losing our 2026 pick to New York, and squandering our biggest asset: our losses.

Point being we are playing percentages. Deni is a nice player. We decided we could afford to lose him because we are betting on the chance that a Cooper Flagg or an AJ Dybantsa will prove better. We need a franchise player. There are very few ways to incrementally build a championship team by adding or retaining a single player at a time. Unless that player is a superstar. You can't draft better and smarter than every other team in the league every damn time. The swiftest way to the top is a sudden infusion of talent based on a lucky bounce in the right year. We are throwing in every chip we have on the two biggest pots we will see. Giving ourselves every chance to get lucky. And on the flipside, some part of that is reducing our risks to lose that chance. A nudge here, a tanking team there, chemistry, a win streak. Never know what tips it the wrong way. We missed Wemby by one lotto number. Deni does not help us in any way in those chances.

[DCZards]

Trading young players like Bub, Sarr, and George—all of whom have shown potential—instead of taking the time to develop them would be a mistake, imo.

Not only would the Zards be kicking the rebuild can 2-3 yrs further down the road, they’d also be taking the risk that the FRPs they got for them could turn out to be lesser players.

Be patient…and develop, develop, develop.

Wait, don't be patient with Deni but do with the others. Not buying this one bit.

Get at least a FRP + SRPs and you are ahead of the game. We are on the process luck track. We need as many shots as possible - so don't wait too long to move them (if you want to be consistent).

Develop, trade, rinse, repeat until we hit on a true 1 or 2. None of those players are going to pan out to more than 5-8s on a good team (IMO). And even that doesn't matter if you don't hit on two of your 1/2 type players.

The Zards were patient with Deni. He was here for 4 seasons and became a very good player. But Deni struggled at the outset of his career. Maybe we should give our current crop of youngins at least 2-3 seasons to see if any of them can make a leap similar to that made by Deni.

Deni looks like he could be the third or fourth best player on a contender. Did you see that coming when he was a rookie or second yr player?

[dckingsfan]

Trading young players like Bub, Sarr, and George—all of whom have shown potential—instead of taking the time to develop them would be a mistake, imo.

Not only would the Zards be kicking the rebuild can 2-3 yrs further down the road, they’d also be taking the risk that the FRPs they got for them could turn out to be lesser players.

Be patient…and develop, develop, develop.

Wait, don't be patient with Deni but do with the others. Not buying this one bit.

Get at least a FRP + SRPs and you are ahead of the game. We are on the process luck track. We need as many shots as possible - so don't wait too long to move them (if you want to be consistent).

Develop, trade, rinse, repeat until we hit on a true 1 or 2. None of those players are going to pan out to more than 5-8s on a good team (IMO). And even that doesn't matter if you don't hit on two of your 1/2 type players.

The Zards were patient with Deni. He was here for 4 seasons and became a very good player. But Deni struggled at the outset of his career. Maybe we should give our current crop of youngins at least 2-3 seasons to see if any of them can make a leap similar to that made by Deni.

Deni looks like he could be the third or fourth best player on a contender. Did you see that coming when he was a rookie or second yr player?

Well, I was the original Deni stans - so there is that (I actually thought he would be like this last season).

1 season, 2 seasons, 3. As soon as you get the offer you pull the trigger for this rebuild as it stands until you get a legit 1 or 2. Especially if you see a deep draft coming (projected). If it is a weak draft, just wait.

My opinion of course...

[pcbothwel]

Im totally shocked that no one messaged in here after Deni scored 9 pts on 14 FGA and 6 FTA (TS of 27%).

But no worries, Im sure we'll have another flurry of post once he puts up another good game.

[Kanyewest]

Im totally shocked that no one messaged in here after Deni scored 9 pts on 14 FGA and 6 FTA (TS of 27%).

But no worries, Im sure we'll have another flurry of post once he puts up another good game.

It seemed like a poor game on the offensive end for Deni for sure, but the Trail Blazers were still +5 with him on the floor and they ended up beating the 76ers by 17 points. The game was also a back to back game and the previous game went to OT where fatigue may have played a role. Blazers fans are also saying that Deni looked beat up out there for the last two games and probably needs to be rested a bit.

On another note The Trail Blazers now have 28 wins, their over under coming into the season was 21.5 and they only had 21 wins last season. There are now 20 games left to go in the season. Deni isn't the only reason but is probably a major reason for this improvement.

[AFM]

Im totally shocked that no one messaged in here after Deni scored 9 pts on 14 FGA and 6 FTA (TS of 27%).

But no worries, Im sure we'll have another flurry of post once he puts up another good game.

Are you a member of the Cult of Dawkins by any chance?

[doclinkin]

On another note The Trail Blazers now have 28 wins, their over under coming into the season was 21.5 and they only had 21 wins last season. There are now 20 games left to go in the season. Deni isn't the only reason but is probably a major reason for this improvement.

My point exactly. This is what the front office is pointing to when it is suggested that Deni didn't fit the timeline. The timeline requires we lose big 2 years in a row. Deni breaking out and peaking hurts us in that race to the bottom. It does guarantee us one good player: Deni. But might lose us another. A top 5 lotto pick. Possibly a franchise guy.

Trading Deni already gave us one good _prospect_ (if not yet a good player) plus a smattering of other assets that might pan out. Plus no danger of losing our draft pick this year. Reduced danger next year.

Do Deni's strongest diehards think he will be absolutely better than the top 5 players in this year's draft? Ok. What about this year's top 5 plus next year's top 8 guy? If so I'm willing to hear that argument.

[pcbothwel]

Im totally shocked that no one messaged in here after Deni scored 9 pts on 14 FGA and 6 FTA (TS of 27%).

But no worries, Im sure we'll have another flurry of post once he puts up another good game.

Are you a member of the Cult of Dawkins by any chance?

Not at all. I was underwhelmed by the trade package for Deni and said so at the time. I just becomes tiresome to see this thread disappear for days on end when Deni doesnt play well, but then he has a good game and people rush here to cry about it. Its just strange.

[TGW]

Im totally shocked that no one messaged in here after Deni scored 9 pts on 14 FGA and 6 FTA (TS of 27%).

But no worries, Im sure we'll have another flurry of post once he puts up another good game.

Are you a member of the Cult of Dawkins by any chance?

Not at all. I was underwhelmed by the trade package for Deni and said so at the time. I just becomes tiresome to see this thread disappear for days on end when Deni doesnt play well, but then he has a good game and people rush here to cry about it. Its just strange.

So don't respond. It's that simple. You're the one who sounds like a crybaby.

[tontoz]

A 30 pt triple double isnt just a "good game".

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Im totally shocked that no one messaged in here after Deni scored 9 pts on 14 FGA and 6 FTA (TS of 27%).

But no worries, Im sure we'll have another flurry of post once he puts up another good game.

Are you a member of the Cult of Dawkins by any chance?

Not at all. I was underwhelmed by the trade package for Deni and said so at the time. I just becomes tiresome to see this thread disappear for days on end when Deni doesnt play well, but then he has a good game and people rush here to cry about it. Its just strange.

I'm here. So you're getting upset because some folks didn't respond to a off shooting game like they did after he put up a 30 point triple double?

Still terrible trade even if he had an off shooting night, will still be as he has more off shooting nights. Also, great thing about him as a player is he can impact the game without having a great scoring night. He was still +5 in a game where he went 3-14 from the field and 3-6 from the line, and his team won the game with him playing heavy minutes. I know, defense so boring.

Deni is a fantastic player, still so underrated.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

A 30 pt triple double isnt just a "good game".

Here, here.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Are you a member of the Cult of Dawkins by any chance?

Not at all. I was underwhelmed by the trade package for Deni and said so at the time. I just becomes tiresome to see this thread disappear for days on end when Deni doesnt play well, but then he has a good game and people rush here to cry about it. Its just strange.

So don't respond. It's that simple. You're the one who sounds like a crybaby.

Here, here.

[Kanyewest]

On another note The Trail Blazers now have 28 wins, their over under coming into the season was 21.5 and they only had 21 wins last season. There are now 20 games left to go in the season. Deni isn't the only reason but is probably a major reason for this improvement.

My point exactly. This is what the front office is pointing to when it is suggested that Deni didn't fit the timeline. The timeline requires we lose big 2 years in a row. Deni breaking out and peaking hurts us in that race to the bottom. It does guarantee us one good player: Deni. But might lose us another. A top 5 lotto pick. Possibly a franchise guy.

Trading Deni already gave us one good _prospect_ (if not yet a good player) plus a smattering of other assets that might pan out. Plus no danger of losing our draft pick this year. Reduced danger next year.

Do Deni's strongest diehards think he will be absolutely better than the top 5 players in this year's draft? Ok. What about this year's top 5 plus next year's top 8 guy? If so I'm willing to hear that argument.

Perhaps. Maybe if the Wizards held onto Deni they would find themselves out of the top 4 and challenging with the likes of Toronto, Brooklyn, and Philly. (Although Sarr, Kuzma, and sometimes Poole have been good tank commanders)

Still, I liked seeing Deni play and would have been nice to receive a bit more but time will tell and maybe Carrington will be better than we all anticipate.

[pcbothwel]

On another note The Trail Blazers now have 28 wins, their over under coming into the season was 21.5 and they only had 21 wins last season. There are now 20 games left to go in the season. Deni isn't the only reason but is probably a major reason for this improvement.

My point exactly. This is what the front office is pointing to when it is suggested that Deni didn't fit the timeline. The timeline requires we lose big 2 years in a row. Deni breaking out and peaking hurts us in that race to the bottom. It does guarantee us one good player: Deni. But might lose us another. A top 5 lotto pick. Possibly a franchise guy.

Trading Deni already gave us one good _prospect_ (if not yet a good player) plus a smattering of other assets that might pan out. Plus no danger of losing our draft pick this year. Reduced danger next year.

Do Deni's strongest diehards think he will be absolutely better than the top 5 players in this year's draft? Ok. What about this year's top 5 plus next year's top 8 guy? If so I'm willing to hear that argument.

Perhaps. Maybe if the Wizards held onto Deni they would find themselves out of the top 4 and challenging with the likes of Toronto, Brooklyn, and Philly. (Although Sarr, Kuzma, and sometimes Poole have been good tank commanders)

Still, I liked seeing Deni play and would have been nice to receive a bit more but time will tell and maybe Carrington will be better than we all anticipate.

Agreed. I think the Deni situation was tough. We need to finish top 4 this year and NEED to get in the top 8 next year. I think they knew Deni jeopardized that and wanted to get the ball rolling on the rebuild.
What pissed me off is that Deni is clearly a better asset than Mykal Bridges, yet he garnered a huge haul from the Knicks. Brogdon completely falling apart certainly hurts because I think he would have netted us another 1st if we took on bad salary into next year.
Oh well.

[DCZards]

What pissed me off is that Deni is clearly a better asset than Mykal Bridges, yet he garnered a huge haul from the Knicks. Brogdon completely falling apart certainly hurts because I think he would have netted us another 1st if we took on bad salary into next year.
Oh well.

I think the Knicks, their fans, and the NBA in general recognize now that that was a huge overpay for Bridges. So I wouldn’t use that as a yardstick.