ESPN analytics metric NET POINTS

redslastlaugh · Post #1 » by **redslastlaugh** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 1:41 am

ESPN has released a catchall analytics metric called net points. It is publically available on this page:
https://espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts

According to their model, Jayson Tatum is the 4th most impactful NBA player this season, behind Jokic, SGA, and Karl Anthony Towns. And, surprisingly, Luke Kornet is 19th most impactful… so interesting … im gonna noodle around with the results

Jrue Holiday rates as the worst Celtics, #431 ranked player in the dataset…

This is the explainer introducing Net Points:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44093220/introducing-net-points-latest-nba-metric-amazing-early-findings

Mr_Mojo_Risin · Post #2 » by **Mr_Mojo_Risin** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 1:57 am

Appreciate you sharing.

KAT more impactful than JT?

Sengun more impactful on defense than Wemby and Mobley etc?

LOL - perfect ESPN metric to get maximum reactions.

Post #3 » by **SuperDeluxe** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 2:40 am

Mr_Mojo_Risin wrote:KAT more impactful than JT?

I saw the article this morning and found it super interesting until I read that. So I guess this new metric considers KAT a plus defender?

There's a glitch in the system.

Fierce1 · Post #4 » by **Fierce1** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 3:30 am

Clearly a case of stats not telling the whole story.

brackdan70 · Post #5 » by **brackdan70** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 3:37 am

Kornet should be higher.

redslastlaugh · Post #6 » by **redslastlaugh** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 4:25 am

Jokic
Kornet
SGA

lol

brackdan70 wrote:Kornet should be higher.

Fencer reregistered · Post #7 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Wed Mar 5, 2025 4:27 am

I get that the metric tries to divvy up play outcomes according to the influence of individual players -- but HOW does it do so?

Post #8 » by **djFan71** » Thu Mar 6, 2025 1:22 am

Fencer reregistered wrote:I get that the metric tries to divvy up play outcomes according to the influence of individual players -- but HOW does it do so?

Poorly?

Fencer reregistered · Post #9 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Thu Mar 6, 2025 1:49 am

djFan71 wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:I get that the metric tries to divvy up play outcomes according to the influence of individual players -- but HOW does it do so?

Poorly?

Arcanely?

steefP2 · Post #10 » by **steefP2** » Thu Mar 6, 2025 3:27 pm

First glance at the results says it’s a cool idea that seems to be working very poorly. It all depends on how it’s assigning value to each event and that doesnt seem to be public.

threrf23 · Post #11 » by **threrf23** » Thu Mar 6, 2025 4:47 pm

Kornet has now dropped to 21st overall.

Ignoring Drew Pete's 133 minutes, on/off stats do point to Kornet being the most impactful player on one of the best team's in the league this season.

Actually, now Al is tied with Kornet, with Queta trailing not far behind. It perhaps speaks to our big man depth with KP sitting out, and/or failing to regain chemistry with the rest of the team.

Anyways, I get the sense that this stat is similar to if not the same as 82games' Simple Rating (on/off rating + net PER). 82games.com hasn't published stats for this season, so tough to cross reference, but Kornet's own PER (per B-R) is 18.7 (compared to 11.8 for Al, for example).

82games.com has removed the "teams/players" link in their menu, so its possible that Roland Beech is now providing the ratings exclusively to ESPN.

edit, also possible that they are replacing net PER with ORTG/DRTG differential, Kornet for example has an ORTG of 151 this season, which ranks first overall amongst all players with at least 69 (68) minutes played. But then Derek Lively would be higher, so idk.

redslastlaugh · Post #12 » by **redslastlaugh** » Thu Mar 6, 2025 5:07 pm

I haven’t dug into how they’re calculating the stat… but if you control for minutes by switching to NetPoints/100 possessions, as I just did, you will see that Luke Kornet is 4th best overall in the entire NBA…

Who invented this stat, Luke’s Mom? Bobby Manning?

threrf23 wrote:Kornet has now dropped to 21st overall.

Ignoring Drew Pete's 133 minutes, on/off stats do point to Kornet being the most impactful player on one of the best team's in the league this season.

Anyways, I get the sense that this stat is similar to if not the same as 82games' Simple Rating (on/off rating + net PER). 82games.com hasn't published stats for this season, so tough to cross reference, but Kornet's own PER (per B-R) is 18.7 (compared to 11.8 for Al, for example).

edit, also possible that they are replacing net PER with ORTG/DRTG differential, Kornet for example has an ORTG of 151 this season, which ranks first overall amongst all players with at least 69 (68) minutes played. But then Derek Lively would be higher, so idk.