2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[Mrakar]

This proves an old saying "it's a thin line between brave and stupid". Robert Horry wasn't brave(clutch), he was just stupid enough to not care what happens if he misses.

[Tracymcgoaty]

Agree with the calls part.

But SGA is clear MVP. Dude is beasting right now.

[Calvin Klein]

It's better not to spread idiotic opinions. Look what happened in 2023 with Perkins/Embiid.

[Prophet_tt]

He had 34 points, 19 rebounded, 7 assists, and great advanced stats in the game he “choked”

Is the game about stats or is the game about wins?

How do you personally judge how someone played in a game?

If their stats had an impact on winning the game. Jokic chocked down the stretch. As the leader and MVP of the Nuggets he was unable to stop the largest game 7 comeback in NBA history.

[falcolombardi]

To be fair, the schedule has been incredibly weak. The average SRS of the teams he's played against is -2.27. Excluding the most recent game against Boston, the average SRS is -3.15. So it's not really a huge accomplishment that the team came out with a 10-3 record.

Against the 5 teams with an SRS greater than -2, he averaged:
21.0 ppg / 12.6 apg / 13.4 rpg / 4.8 topg / 68.4% TS

Against the 8 teams with an SRS lower than -2, he averaged:
30.3 ppg / 10.6 apg / 11.9 rpg / 2.8 topg / 70.8% TS

Still amazing production in the first line because he's Jokic, but it's worth knowing the considerably lower scoring volume and higher turnovers against the better competition. And his two worst performances of the month came against arguably the two best teams he faced during the stretch - Boston and LA. And this trend of lower scoring volume in particular, coupled with being taken advantage of defensively a bit more, is something that's occurred with Jokic against the elite teams this year. Those top teams have been able to take away his scoring and target him more on the defensive end, whereas with Shai, I feel he has been more consistent regardless of the level of opponent.

And you can contrast those stats with SGA and what he's done against the top teams this year and SGA looks even more impressive.

SGA is averaging 32 5 and 6 on 64% TS but when he's played against the top 6 seeds in either conference his averages go UP to 35 7 and 5 on 67% TS. His games against lottery and .500 teams are actually pulling down his averages this year! The guy has been an absolute monster raising his level of play against the best teams this year

I mean does this factor the Houston game last night? Where they played a lineup of gleaguers?

According to the standings, he beat a top-6 team but anyone with eyes know it wasn’t really the Rockets.

This is why these numbers can be deceiving.

This is insane cope ngl

[falcolombardi]

Shouldn't Jokic fans hope Jokic doesn't win the MVP this season? Nuggets have never won a title in the season he's won MVP. Might be a good omen if he doesn't win it like in 2023

That is not how this works lol

[Prophet_tt]

Oh no way?!? I didn’t know that.

Has nothing to do with this thread. LeBron isn’t the best player in his team and wasn’t before the trade either.

You don't have to be the best player to be the most valuable, obviously you didn't know that either...

What are you talking about? Across the league that may be true like Joker being a step above SGA. In a team sense, you absolutely have to be the best player on your team.

I've seen plenty of finals MVP's not be the best player on their team. I'm not sure about regular season MVP'S but again my statement stands. You don't have to be the best player to be the most valuable. For example this year on the Houston Rockets, is there best player their most valuable player?

[markjay]

This is a pointless thread, as Robert Horry is literally an employee of the Lakers.

This is the equivalent of posting Michael Cage(ex NBA player and current commentator for the Thunder) takes on here. According to him, Shai gets fouled like 20 times a game and he doesn't get enough calls.

Is he really? Didn't know that. In what capacity?

https://x.com/rkhorry

He's employed by Spectrum Sports Net, they air all the Laker games.

https://spectrumsportsnet.com/lakers

He's a commentator for the Lakers. He gets paid by the Lakers.

According to ChatGPT (yeah, I know ), Spectrum SportsNet commentators work for the network, not for the Lakers. So technically probably not true, but, yeah, his role is to be a Lakers homer


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[lethalizer]

Is he really? Didn't know that. In what capacity?

https://x.com/rkhorry

He's employed by Spectrum Sports Net, they air all the Laker games.

https://spectrumsportsnet.com/lakers

He's a commentator for the Lakers. He gets paid by the Lakers.

According to ChatGPT (yeah, I know ), Spectrum SportsNet commentators work for the network, not for the Lakers. So technically probably not true, but, yeah, his role is to be a Lakers homer


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Well, technically Michael Cage gets paid by the FanDuel Sports Network, not the Thunder, so the same distinction applies.

Doesn't change the point.

[slick_watts]

is robert horry's opinion on this notable enough to deserve its own thread? he's just regurgitating casual takes here.

[Homer38]

why is robert horry's opinion on this notable enough to deserve its own thread?

7 times champion big shot Horry!!!

[Special_Puppy]

Is the game about stats or is the game about wins?

How do you personally judge how someone played in a game?

If their stats had an impact on winning the game. Jokic chocked down the stretch. As the leader and MVP of the Nuggets he was unable to stop the largest game 7 comeback in NBA history.

Ok how do you measure if someone’s stats had an impact on winning the game?

[EmpireFalls]

People say these hot takes because they get posted

[Special_Puppy]

Shouldn't Jokic fans hope Jokic doesn't win the MVP this season? Nuggets have never won a title in the season he's won MVP. Might be a good omen if he doesn't win it like in 2023

That is not how this works lol

Think he's joking lol

[Infinite Llamas]

And you can contrast those stats with SGA and what he's done against the top teams this year and SGA looks even more impressive.

SGA is averaging 32 5 and 6 on 64% TS but when he's played against the top 6 seeds in either conference his averages go UP to 35 7 and 5 on 67% TS. His games against lottery and .500 teams are actually pulling down his averages this year! The guy has been an absolute monster raising his level of play against the best teams this year

I mean does this factor the Houston game last night? Where they played a lineup of gleaguers?

According to the standings, he beat a top-6 team but anyone with eyes know it wasn’t really the Rockets.

This is why these numbers can be deceiving.

This is insane cope ngl

And yet it’s completely factual.

Might be a nitpick but if we are gonna go down the road of comparing stats vs teams based on standings, it’s only fair to assess these things. Team missing players? Player gets tossed early? Player in foul trouble?

Alls I’m saying is it isn’t always black and white.

[Jaqua92]

Jokic, an offensive GOAT, 3xmvp, finals mvp with an all time great championship run has officially gotten to the point of us needing to degrade him to justify a player who hasnt won so much as one meaningful game or playoff series being mvp. And we are also calling that unaccomplished player comparable to peak MJ.

What are we doing here guys?

Generally funny how you're unable to see how good SGA is because it threatens your hero.

Celtic fan. This isnt so much about Jokic as it it is the absurd propping up of players.

Felt the same way about Ant during last years playoff runs.

But yes. Its funny that I don't recognize SGA as being better than peak Lebron and MJ

[Special_Puppy]

I'm not saying its just DHOs. I'm saying they boosts his assists numbers, and good teams can limit/take away those actions over the course of a 7 game playoff series....as we've seen when Jokic led teams play good teams in a playoff series.

Hmm.

So a few points:

1. I'm still on the "Shai is MVP" side of things so I'm not looking to make a case for Jokic in the context of this thread.

2. Trying to determine passing impact from APG is just not a thing that can be done well. Just not enough focus on what happens in the possession before the final pass, and how a guy's approach to facilitation impacts this.

(This a long known thing and why it's weird when people try to argue for Magic as the passing GOAT based on his APG - as has happened on these boards lately - when those who remember the era know that such an approach would favor Stockton over Magic. )

3. ftr I'll say I was making the case for Jokic as the best passer in the game before he had gaudy APG numbers. That was just based on the passes I saw him make and his accuracy with those passes.

4. On DHOs, I haven't seen data on this, but I think you'll find that DHO passes aren't particularly prone to lead to assist crediting or even assist generation. DHOs are a smart play, and yes they count as a pass, but they're really more about gradually pushing the defense out of position than they are about making the big pass that leads to the open shot.

5. Jokic assists dropping in playoff series. I think you need to keep in mind that if a high primacy guy sees his scoring numbers go up while his assist numbers go down, this is probably about the defense choosing to defend the pass more than the shot. You can literally make any player in the league stop getting assists if you guard his teammates heavily enough, because at a certain point you're giving a guy open looks and he should be calling his own number.

6. As I say that, because Jokic likes to operate in the interior, a defense focused on ball denial might be able to bring down both his scoring and assists - and that's certainly what JJ Redick's current scheme did against Jokic recently. Only question is whether it will have the same effectiveness in a playoff series. My guess would be that a) it's not as effective because Denver will know what's coming and prepare for it, but b) it still seems like a good idea so long as Jokic's teammates are able to take advantage of the openings such a defensive scheme leaves.

Is your reasoning for SGA as the MVP basically the same as before? The combination of his enormous net rating and on/off?

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not saying its just DHOs. I'm saying they boosts his assists numbers, and good teams can limit/take away those actions over the course of a 7 game playoff series....as we've seen when Jokic led teams play good teams in a playoff series.

Hmm.

So a few points:

1. I'm still on the "Shai is MVP" side of things so I'm not looking to make a case for Jokic in the context of this thread.

2. Trying to determine passing impact from APG is just not a thing that can be done well. Just not enough focus on what happens in the possession before the final pass, and how a guy's approach to facilitation impacts this.

(This a long known thing and why it's weird when people try to argue for Magic as the passing GOAT based on his APG - as has happened on these boards lately - when those who remember the era know that such an approach would favor Stockton over Magic. )

3. ftr I'll say I was making the case for Jokic as the best passer in the game before he had gaudy APG numbers. That was just based on the passes I saw him make and his accuracy with those passes.

4. On DHOs, I haven't seen data on this, but I think you'll find that DHO passes aren't particularly prone to lead to assist crediting or even assist generation. DHOs are a smart play, and yes they count as a pass, but they're really more about gradually pushing the defense out of position than they are about making the big pass that leads to the open shot.

5. Jokic assists dropping in playoff series. I think you need to keep in mind that if a high primacy guy sees his scoring numbers go up while his assist numbers go down, this is probably about the defense choosing to defend the pass more than the shot. You can literally make any player in the league stop getting assists if you guard his teammates heavily enough, because at a certain point you're giving a guy open looks and he should be calling his own number.

6. As I say that, because Jokic likes to operate in the interior, a defense focused on ball denial might be able to bring down both his scoring and assists - and that's certainly what JJ Redick's current scheme did against Jokic recently. Only question is whether it will have the same effectiveness in a playoff series. My guess would be that a) it's not as effective because Denver will know what's coming and prepare for it, but b) it still seems like a good idea so long as Jokic's teammates are able to take advantage of the openings such a defensive scheme leaves.

Is your reasoning for SGA as the MVP basically the same as before? The combination of his enormous net rating and on/off?

Well that's not the only stuff I look at, but yeah, that stuff still points to Shai as an exceptional candidate.

As always though, not looking to knock Jokic. He's a worthy choice for MVP too.

[cupcakesnake]

I mean does this factor the Houston game last night? Where they played a lineup of gleaguers?

According to the standings, he beat a top-6 team but anyone with eyes know it wasn’t really the Rockets.

This is why these numbers can be deceiving.

This is insane cope ngl

And yet it’s completely factual.

Might be a nitpick but if we are gonna go down the road of comparing stats vs teams based on standings, it’s only fair to assess these things. Team missing players? Player gets tossed early? Player in foul trouble?

Alls I’m saying is it isn’t always black and white.

That's all true, but it doesn't justify pointing at one game as evidence of anything. If someone did a study where they went over all the games of everyone against the best teams, and found there was a player/team with some real fool's gold (a strangely large number of games where the top competition was missing several top players)... then we'd have something to talk about.

Taking a random shot at one game and trying to use it as an indication of evidence that someone's performance against all top teams is meaningless... is just that, a random shot that does nothing. No one should be assuming full health in every game of every point of data, but you'd need to prove someone has some real luck relative to other MVP candidates here.

[Infinite Llamas]

This is insane cope ngl

And yet it’s completely factual.

Might be a nitpick but if we are gonna go down the road of comparing stats vs teams based on standings, it’s only fair to assess these things. Team missing players? Player gets tossed early? Player in foul trouble?

Alls I’m saying is it isn’t always black and white.

That's all true, but it doesn't justify pointing at one game as evidence of anything. If someone did a study where they went over all the games of everyone against the best teams, and found there was a player/team with some real fool's gold (a strangely large number of games where the top competition was missing several top players)... then we'd have something to talk about.

Taking a random shot at one game and trying to use it as an indication of evidence that someone's performance against all top teams is meaningless... is just that, a random shot that does nothing. No one should be assuming full health in every game of every point of data, but you'd need to prove someone has some real luck relative to other MVP candidates here.

That’s fair enough.

I guess my point is that picking on gleague players in a random March game doesn’t really move the needle much in an MVP race.