Thoughts on this reddit post about Luka's athletic regression?

[41Dirk41]

I think someone mentioned that Luka should get back to his younger weight. That seems unlikely.

I believe he was listed at 218 as a rookie and 230 in his second year as a 20/21 year old.

Now, Dallas thought his ideal playing weight was 245.



Most 20 year old men haven't filled out yet and I'd imagine the same was true for Luka.

Don't know what his weight is currently but it looks to be coming down.

Luka was rumored to be over 270 at the time Dallas traded him.

Yes Nico, we all trust you

[Mr B]

I think someone mentioned that Luka should get back to his younger weight. That seems unlikely.

I believe he was listed at 218 as a rookie and 230 in his second year as a 20/21 year old.

Now, Dallas thought his ideal playing weight was 245.



Most 20 year old men haven't filled out yet and I'd imagine the same was true for Luka.

Don't know what his weight is currently but it looks to be coming down.

Luka was rumored to be over 270 at the time Dallas traded him.

Yes Nico, we all trust you

He was 245 on draft night. If you look at his body now compared to then it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’s close to if not over 270.

Edit: according to Google Luka was listed at 230 lbs on draft night.

[hauntedcomputer]

I'll bet a million dollars nobody here is less than 110 percent of their high school weight, but we want Luka to give up beer.

[Mr B]

I'll bet a million dollars nobody here is less than 110 percent of their high school weight, but we want Luka to give up beer.

Luka is a top tier pro athlete. The standards are higher for him.

[LuckyGreen7]

I'll bet a million dollars nobody here is less than 110 percent of their high school weight, but we want Luka to give up beer.

Graduated Highschool at 175#. Started drinking in college and was 205-210 by age 25 and then all of my adult life. I probably averaged 30 drinks a week.
I quit drinking at 47 and the only exercise I do is 45 minutes of weigh lifting 4 days a week. I'm 49 and weigh 175# again. Minimal changes to my diet outside of quitting drinking.

Should I DM you my address for that million?

It's 100% the booze that has him where he's at. How many other NBA players have packed on the body fat like he has since entering the league? Especially All NBA level players? I can't think of one

[mattg]

I'll bet a million dollars nobody here is less than 110 percent of their high school weight, but we want Luka to give up beer.

I'm only 20 pounds heavier now at 35 years old than when I graduated high school. Not remotely hard to stay nearly the same weight from 18-25, unless your habits are utter trash, which they have to be as a pro athlete to gain a bunch of weight at that age. During the pandemic I let myself go and was 25 pounds heavier than I am now, but simply not eating like a total slob and doing literally any level of exercise had me drop that 25 easily over the course of a year and half.

[trickshot]

I'll bet a million dollars nobody here is less than 110 percent of their high school weight, but we want Luka to give up beer.

Expecting anyone to be the same weight is unfair but let's get real about this Luka thing. He's overprotected because of the rashness of the trade. Dumbest trade reason but two things can be true. He was getting fat while his team was falling into play-in spots with the intent of coming back and using their hard earned wins to get into shape. Favourite player but if you watch him enough you know why his own might find his ways annoying.

[tamaraw08]

LOL. He averaged 29ppg in the PO on 23 shots. He had a below league average TS%. He struggled....i dont know how you can define it as anything but that.

And this year its more of the same. Gaudy volume numbers at below league average efficiency. This is not a what top 5 players do

But yes, keep hand waving it away. It's not a problem at all that Luka has not played like a top 5 player in a year and genuine arguments are there for top 10

Jayson Tatum averaged 25 points on 48% efg in the playoffs last year compared to Luka's 29 points on 51% efg. And I think we can both agree Luka's defended far more aggressively than Tatum. Yet I'm not in this thread arguing that Tatum's not a consistent superstar or not a top 5 or 10 player.

Give it up man. You've moved the goalposts twice already and you've been here long enough to know efficiency goes down in the playoffs and players get dinged up. And also that players may miss more games after playoff runs. 80% of the Mavs are injured this year. Nuance and context isn't handwaving.

Why is my guy always catching strays lol?

Luka was guarded aggressively for sure. But primarily with single coverage by Jaylen Brown.

Tatum was consistently doubled and trapped by a Mavs defense that couldn't guard him straight up. I've posted hella photos and other evidence of this in the past but I'll spare you. Picture 5 Mavs staring at JT and every other Celtic wide open on the 3pt line.

I think I've realized a lot of people watched roughly one game of last year's Finals and then turned it off since it wasn't very competitive. And I've spent the last 9 months scratching my head at the assumptions of what happened.

I guess Tatum was triple teamed by Miami twice and GSW too, right?

[HollowEarth]

People use stats devoid of context which is less statistical analysis and more numerology. That post and some comments in this thread never establish what a normal or expected trajectory is meant to be. Chris Paul started his career attempting 34% of his field goals within 3 feet, dropped below 20% by age 24, and overall decreased each season afterwards. Kobe Bryant entered the league taking 37% within 3 feet and dropped to 25% by his MVP year. This is the norm. It's true for Carmelo, Lebron, Iverson, and Durant. It's true for Harrden and Ginobil.

The standard trajectory is to decrease the percentage of shots a player takes at the rim as they mature and improve. It's very rare for a player to really increase the amount of shots they take at the rim. The only two guys who really stick out as anomalies are Tony Parker and Steph Curry. Parker gradually developed an unusually complex layup package, and Curry worked heavily on his finishing and his biomechanics to land without tearing up his ankles. There have been guys that started in the era where mid-range shots were positive and then modified their game to really cut those out in favor of drives to the rim and threes. Bron and Paul Pierce both did this and have somewhat similar games to Luka.

Really though, the stats are worthless out of context. Luka does look slower and hurt. Players typically take fewer shots at the rim throughout their career. It would be good if Luka took more, whatever steps are needed to get there. If he keeps using the off-season to play international ball and party, he will likely never get his body right. You can just, like, watch the games though to get this. The whole "percent at the rim" is somewhat odd. Like, for example, folks bring up Harden. If you want to take a stat out of context, Harden has doubled his turnovers from last year to now. Is that bad? How can you say with no context whatsoever. In context, the doubling turnovers are a result of having to take a larger role and playing more aggressively and more as a playmaker. They're not a big deal.

[DanEu]

With great weight comes great criticism.

[LewisnotMiller]

Just throwing this out there.

Read on Twitter

Great...
But one of those games he had a +/- of -16. Another -19. In another two he was under 40% from the floor (31% in one of them) and in two others he combined for 12/20 from the foul line.

Cherry-picking stats doesn't mean much. Luka is really good. The bar is really high if you're trying to convince people he's at his best.

Basketball is a team sport. Focusing on +/- for one player from just one or two games is cherry-picking as well. In the last 6 games he's +40. And pulling +/- from one game, FG% from another, and FT% from yet another is even more selective than using a six-game sample—it’s arguably an even bigger case of cherry-picking.

That being said a 6 game sample size is a small one, however, my only point was that he's getting better as he plays more games. Better play = better movement. This was evident in his last game vs Milwaukee.

Fair call, and you're right, I was cherry picking. But I would say I was cherry picking from the same 6 game sample where stats had been cherry picked to make him seem like he's dominating.

My point...as you seem to agree with I think...is that cherry picked stats aren't as compelling as they seem at first flush.

Luka is an outstanding player and he'll get better as he settles in with the Lakers. It was a steal of a trade.

[Mavrelous]

Great...
But one of those games he had a +/- of -16. Another -19. In another two he was under 40% from the floor (31% in one of them) and in two others he combined for 12/20 from the foul line.

Cherry-picking stats doesn't mean much. Luka is really good. The bar is really high if you're trying to convince people he's at his best.

Basketball is a team sport. Focusing on +/- for one player from just one or two games is cherry-picking as well. In the last 6 games he's +40. And pulling +/- from one game, FG% from another, and FT% from yet another is even more selective than using a six-game sample—it’s arguably an even bigger case of cherry-picking.

That being said a 6 game sample size is a small one, however, my only point was that he's getting better as he plays more games. Better play = better movement. This was evident in his last game vs Milwaukee.

Fair call, and you're right, I was cherry picking. But I would say I was cherry picking from the same 6 game sample where stats had been cherry picked to make him seem like he's dominating.

My point...as you seem to agree with I think...is that cherry picked stats aren't as compelling as they seem at first flush.

Luka is an outstanding player and he'll get better as he settles in with the Lakers. It was a steal of a trade.

Ignore this year, you have full year sample last year, Luka was heavy and looked less atheltic than his younger days, very similar to this year in the short periods he was healthy, during that season:
Led the league in scoring is RS, averaged 34/9/10
Led the league in total minutes played RS+PO
Led the entire league in total points, assists, rebounds and steals in the PO, 1st to ever do it.
In the WCF, young athletic phenom, Anthony Edwards, was visibely gassed while Fatso Doncic was driving and lobbing to Gafford.

[dirkdiggler4177]

"Luka's out of shape."

Here are the mpg stats in the playoffs last year. Recall that he had multiple injuries in the playoffs last season, led the playoffs in Total PTS/REB/AST and was, I believe, a net positive on defense during the postseason.



You can't play those kinds of minutes and be that effective, while hurt, if you're not in shape.

Does Luka get out of shape at times? He does. But he's never had a major injury and he's in shape when it counts.

Luka was overworked in Dallas. He's lucky he didn't get hurt from that, as Kyrie sadly just did.

To be fair, if Luka would stop playing in the summer that would help him recover. But I doubt it's going to happen.

Well, he relaxes a lot on defense. He also rarely runs a fastbreak or explodes. That is what makes you fatigued. It's those sudden stops and full gear.

[dirkdiggler4177]

When you look at players with the sort of the same athletic ability as Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanović you realize that Luka's peak won't last very long. With that said, he never relied much on driving past players. Yes, he got some drive-by highlights, but his game has always been pick and roll, 3-pointers, and the mid-range. It was just very early in his career that he would drive past guys, but that was not because he was explosive.

At one point in time, his team must really build around his lack of defensibility. But the truth is, most teams don't want to play the offense around their worst player to take advantage of the other team's worst defender. So the bad defense has been really overrated as a bad thing.

[Yoshun]

I see a lot of people in this thread talking about Luka having a short peak. He's been in the league for 7 years now and he's been a top 5-10 player for about 6 of those years. So, what's his peak and what is short for a peak?

[dirkdiggler4177]

I see a lot of people in this thread talking about Luka having a short peak. He's been in the league for 7 years now and he's been a top 5-10 player for about 6 of those years. So, what's his peak and what is short for a peak?

Most players peak at 27-28 and win championships from that age to 32. But that is also because it takes some time to build a team around a player. Luka's two best seasons came at the age of 23-24. He can easily peak at 27-28 if he gets fitness under control. His best season was when he played international ball and had a very short off-season, making it very hard for him not to be in shape coming into the season.

That is also the problem, the one time he was in shape was because he could not avoid it because he played international ball into august.

[xchange55]

Luka was listed as 218lb during his rookie year. Here is a photo of him from 2019 - - not even recognizable.

You can get away without being in great shape in football and baseball because there are constant breaks in the action. It's much tougher in hockey, soccer and basketball; espeically where modern NBA is more focused on 3's and not so much slower half court post play. He's already had a bunch of lower body issues, and the weight certainly doesn't help there. So he's not dunking anymore, but all those jump shots really starts to hit the legs.

[HotRocks34]

I see a lot of people in this thread talking about Luka having a short peak. He's been in the league for 7 years now and he's been a top 5-10 player for about 6 of those years. So, what's his peak and what is short for a peak?

What we know is that Luka has been first team All NBA five times, including last year, and also last year he became just the second player in NBA history to lead a playoffs in Total PTS, REB and AST.

He's also the second player in NBA history to have five 27/8/8 seasons.

This year his efficiency numbers are down but he's still averaging 27/8/7 and in the month of March, 9 games so far, it's been 30/8/9 while shooting 40% from three.

Not bad for a "declining" guy who just got to a new team.

[tamaraw08]

I see a lot of people in this thread talking about Luka having a short peak. He's been in the league for 7 years now and he's been a top 5-10 player for about 6 of those years. So, what's his peak and what is short for a peak?

What we know is that Luka has been first team All NBA five times, including last year, and also last year he became just the second player in NBA history to lead a playoffs in Total PTS, REB and AST.

He's also the second player in NBA history to have five 27/8/8 seasons.

This year his efficiency numbers are down but he's still averaging 27/8/7 and in the month of March, 9 games so far, it's been 30/8/9 while shooting 40% from three.

Not bad for a "declining" guy who just got to a new team.

Luka’s declining athleticism, Luka’s bad defense, Luka’s weight problem, Luka’s questionable eating -and drinking habits, blah blah, what is next, Luka a bad teammate and a poor leader?

[HotRocks34]

Declining, unathletic fat man scores 29 points in first half against Milwaukee tonight on 15 FGA.

Fat Man has two 29-point halves in 10 days.