2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 4: Who is the MVP?)

[DrModesty]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

That sounds pretty similar to last season where Jokic was heavily favored.

Not trying to incite anyone, but there are a ton of people, including voters, who fall over themselves at gaudy numbers and will lean Jokic unless it is blindingly obvious that another has the advantage. I am not certain that Jokic is closer to SGA than he is to Giannis for this MVP run at this stage after Jokic's recent run of missed games.

[Special_Puppy]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

That sounds pretty similar to last season where Jokic was heavily favored.

Not trying to incite anyone, but there are a ton of people, including voters, who fall over themselves at gaudy numbers and will lean Jokic unless it is blindingly obvious that another has the advantage

Well if that was true then Jokic would have won MVP over Embiid in 2023. The case for SGA 2025>Jokic 2025 *on an individual level* is significantly stronger than SGA 2024>Jokic 2024. If SGA was playing like his 2024 self I think Jokic might have won MVP even with the 15+ game advantage the Thunder had over the Nuggets. But he leveled up his game so I think SGA might have won even if the difference in team record was super close

[DrModesty]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

That sounds pretty similar to last season where Jokic was heavily favored.

Not trying to incite anyone, but there are a ton of people, including voters, who fall over themselves at gaudy numbers and will lean Jokic unless it is blindingly obvious that another has the advantage

Well if that was true then Jokic would have won MVP over Embiid in 2023. The case for SGA 2025>Jokic 2025 *on an individual level* is significantly stronger than SGA 2024>Jokic 2024. If SGA was playing like his 2024 self I think Jokic might have won MVP even with the 15+ game advantage the Thunder had over the Nuggets. But he leveled up his game so I think SGA might have won even if the difference in team record was super close

We know that there were extenuating circumstances that went in to Embiid's MVP (and Jokic still got 15 first place votes anyway, nor did I say that the majority of voters would vote for him blindly) and SGA is only a tiny fraction better this year than last year.

[Mavrelous]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

This happened last year, both teams won 57 on a similar level casts and they gave it to Jokic.

[LordCovington33]

It should be Jokic based on his monster stats, but I don’t think they want to reward a player with a fourth MVP if he’s made it to final just once. It is what it is.

[BigGargamel]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

The record difference is the sole reason SGA will win MVP. Jokic is having the better individual season. People need to stop this nonsense.

[Special_Puppy]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

The record difference is the sole reason SGA will win MVP. Jokic is having the better individual season. People need to stop this nonsense.

Nah I think there’s a real argument that SGA is having the better individual season give his lead in some advanced stats and more games played

[bbms]

last season was different. shai is better now, and the thunder has had more injuries - and still they got better battling injuries.

[RRR3]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

The record difference is the sole reason SGA will win MVP. Jokic is having the better individual season. People need to stop this nonsense.

I like how you think repeating something that isn’t supported by impact data will make it true.

You’re a homer it’s very debatable who’s better rn

[MoneyTalks41890]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

The record difference is the sole reason SGA will win MVP. Jokic is having the better individual season. People need to stop this nonsense.

SGA playing 12%+ more games than Jokic is alone enough of a differentiator for two guys who are neck and neck statistically.

[iggymcfrack]

I am kinda interested in how the MVP race would go if the supporting casts converged and the Nuggets/Thunder were both at around ~60 wins (let's say the Thunder won 2 more games). I suspect SGA would be favored, but wouldn't be a total lock like he is now

That sounds pretty similar to last season where Jokic was heavily favored.

Not trying to incite anyone, but there are a ton of people, including voters, who fall over themselves at gaudy numbers and will lean Jokic unless it is blindingly obvious that another has the advantage. I am not certain that Jokic is closer to SGA than he is to Giannis for this MVP run at this stage after Jokic's recent run of missed games.

Last year, Jokic played 5 more games than SGA. This year SGA's played 8 more. That's a 13 game swing. If Jokic played 5 more games than SGA this year, I'd have him in the lead. As is, I'd say it's over and SGA won.

[RRR3]

Yeah they’re so close in impact data it’s hard to use that to definitely say either is superior but I think there is a pretty easy argument that 8 more games means SGA has added more total value to his team.

[Castle Black]

Best player in the world. Most valuable player in the world.

Read on Twitter

[EmpireFalls]

Best basketball player in the world. Most valuable player in the world.

Read on Twitter

And lost. It’s remarkable how much his teammates have screwed up this year.

[Peregrine01]

Best basketball player in the world. Most valuable player in the world.

Read on Twitter

And lost. It’s remarkable how much his teammates have screwed up this year.

Starts with their front office...gave two max contracts to two guys who aren't close to being worth that.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Best basketball player in the world. Most valuable player in the world.

Read on Twitter

And lost. It’s remarkable how much his teammates have screwed up this year.

Starts with their front office...gave two max contracts to two guys who aren't close to being worth that.

Which 2 teammates of his have max contracts?

[Peregrine01]

And lost. It’s remarkable how much his teammates have screwed up this year.

Starts with their front office...gave two max contracts to two guys who aren't close to being worth that.

Which 2 teammates of his have max contracts?

Murray and MPJ.

[BruttoNostra]

That missed lay up by Westbrook in the last seconds and up by 1 is the quintessence of that Nuggets team.
And there will be people who will claim "bUt JoKiC pLaYeD wItH aN aLl-StAr"

[SpreeS]

Shai has advantage in total plius/minus +364 over second place. No one has reached even +200 from 97 season. Also +364 difference could be the highest from second teammate in NBA history.

1. Shai 2025 +367
2. Curry 2017 +195
3. Gobert 2021 +180
4. Lebron 2009 +177
5. O'Neal 2000 +174
6. Giannis 2020 +156
7. Dirk 2003 +129
8. Duncan 2007 +122
9. Jokic 2023 +122

Total plius/minus

1. Green 2016 +1072
2. Curry 2016 +1022
3. Curry 2017 +1015
4. Curry 2015 +919
5. Shai 2025 +907 (7 games left to play)

[BigGargamel]

That missed lay up by Westbrook in the last seconds and up by 1 s the quintessence of that Nuggets team.
And there will be people who will claim "bUt JoKiC pLaYeD wItH aN aLl-StAr"

He's playing with two All Stars this year. Westbrook and DeAndre Jordan.