Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching

[Klomp]

How exactly division winner tie breaker work? If MIN, DEN, GSW, LAL all tie at 59 games. Does GSW and LAL break the tie first so one is division winner be ahead. The remaining 3 look at best records against each other? Or there is simply no division winner?

Either GSW or LAL would be first, based on being a division winner. That tie has to be broken (H2H, divison record, conference record, etc). Once that's determined, it goes to three-way tiebreaker procedures.

Are you sure? This is a question not a statement, but if two teams are involved in a four way tie wouldn’t the first applicable tie breaker be used instead of resolving the division and then sort the rest out later?

b. More Than Two Teams Tied. In the case of a tie in regular-season records involving more than two teams, the following criteria will be utilized in the following order:

(1) Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division).
(2) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
(3) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if all tied teams are in same division).
(4) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
(5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
(6) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).

c. Guidelines For Applying Tie-Break Criteria. The following guidelines shall be used when applying the above criteria to break ties for playoff positions:

(1) (a) Ties to determine the division winners must be broken before any other ties.
(b) When a tie must be broken to determine a division winner, the results of the tie-break shall be used to determine only the division winner, and not for any other purpose.

https://global.nba.com/standings/ (scroll down to playoff tie-break procedures)

[Klomp]

How exactly division winner tie breaker work? If MIN, DEN, GSW, LAL all tie at 59 games. Does GSW and LAL break the tie first so one is division winner be ahead. The remaining 3 look at best records against each other? Or there is simply no division winner?

Either GSW or LAL would be first, based on being a division winner. That tie has to be broken (H2H, divison record, conference record, etc). Once that's determined, it goes to three-way tiebreaker procedures.

Unless it's only two teams...then its head to head first.

Division winner second.

Good catch.

[Ethomasp31]

Either GSW or LAL would be first, based on being a division winner. That tie has to be broken (H2H, divison record, conference record, etc). Once that's determined, it goes to three-way tiebreaker procedures.

Unless it's only two teams...then its head to head first.

Division winner second.

Good catch.

It doesn't help us if it's GSW or LAL. If somehow the LAC won the Pacific it would matter.

The NBA host Udonis Haslem said this tonight between the two games...about good teams playing against good teams as we wind down the regular season.

"That's actually what you want when you are headed into the playoffs. You want to be battle tested. You want to go into the playoffs with all cylinders firing. You don't want to be going into the playoffs with your guys taking games off, getting out of shape, getting out of rhythm. You want to be connected and you want to be ready to go."

OKC just lost to the Rockets tonight....they aren't going to want to lose to the LAL heading into the playoffs. I think they will play to win Sunday and Tuesday.

[TimberKat]

LAC, LAL, and GSW are winning. We could be looking at a 5 way tie of LAC, GSW, DEN, MEM, and MIN. I think we get 4th place in that case.

[TimberKat]

DEN looks like the team that played last night. That is 3 quality wins in a row for GSW - MEM, LAL, and DEN. They may end up third.

[winforlose]

Denver loses, LAC wins, go Pels for the upset.

Edit to add: Well FU**!

[winforlose]

Someone please correct me if I am wrong (I very easily could be.) It occurred to me that if we win tomorrow, and the Clippers and Griz lose, then as long as we go 3-1 or better we automatically get at least 6, even if we lose to the Griz for that single loss. The thinking being both teams end up at 33 losses, and if we are also at 33 we have the best conference record of the 3. Does this sound correct to you guys?

[shrink]

April 5

#3 LAL (47-30). 0.0 GB
#4 DEN (47-31). 0.5 GB
#5 GSW (46-31). 1.0 GB

#6 MIN (45-32). 2.0 GB
#7 LAC (45-32). 2.0 GB
#8 MEM (45-32). 2.0 GB

LAL: @OKC, @OKC, @DAL (btb), vsHOU, @POR
DEN: vsIND, @SAC, vsMEM, @HOU
GSW: vsHOU, @PHX, vsSAS (btb), @POR, vsLAC
MIN: @PHI, @MIL, @MEM, vsBRK (btb), vsUTA
LAC: vsDAL (btb), vsSAS, vsHOU (btb), @SAC, @GSW
MEM: @DET, @CHA, vsMIN, @DEN (btb), vsDAL


Games Tonight, April 5

6:00 PM. MIN (45-32) @ PHI (23-54). MIN favored by 16.5

6:00 PM. MEM (45-32) @ DET (43-34). MEM favored by 1.5. NBA TV

9:30 PM. DAL (38-40) @ LAC (45-32). LAC favored by 8.5

[shrink]

Tonight the #6-8 seeds all get a chance to pick up a half game on the pack.

The six teams might only be separated by 1.5 games after tonight.

A lot rides on how OKC, playing for nothing, competes against the Lakers the next two games.

[Ethomasp31]

Tonight the #6-8 seeds all get a chance to pick up a half game on the pack.

The six teams might only be separated by 1.5 games after tonight.

A lot rides on how OKC, playing for nothing, competes against the Lakers the next two games.

They might have nothing to play for...but if they lose two to the Lakers they will be tied with the Cav's for best record and one more loss would mean they would lose the home court advantage for the Finals.

I still go back to what Udonis Haslem said last night. He is one of the hosts on NBA TV, and when asked about all the teams in the West playing each other in the last week he responded...

"That's actually what you want when you are headed into the playoffs. You want to be battle tested. You want to go into the playoffs with all cylinders firing. You don't want to be going into the playoffs with your guys taking games off, getting out of shape, getting out of rhythm. You want to be connected and you want to be ready to go."

That was a direct quote. I played it back a few times to make sure I worded it exactly the way he did. OKC lost last night to Houston. I don't think they want to be headed into the playoffs losing to the Lakers too. They are going to play their guys and try to win those games. After those two games they have three games against teams not making in the playoffs....@ Suns, @ Jazz and @ NOP. I could see them resting guys the last two games but not before.

How things have changed. In Michael Jordan's last 10 full seasons with the Bulls he missed a total of 7 games.

[Ethomasp31]

Someone please correct me if I am wrong (I very easily could be.) It occurred to me that if we win tomorrow, and the Clippers and Griz lose, then as long as we go 3-1 or better we automatically get at least 6, even if we lose to the Griz for that single loss. The thinking being both teams end up at 33 losses, and if we are also at 33 we have the best conference record of the 3. Does this sound correct to you guys?

If we are in a two team tie with the Grizzlies at the end of the year they would win the tie-breaker.

Here is the upgraded odds according to basketball reference

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Here is the updated head to head records between teams.

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/cE8b9o.png

[winforlose]

Someone please correct me if I am wrong (I very easily could be.) It occurred to me that if we win tomorrow, and the Clippers and Griz lose, then as long as we go 3-1 or better we automatically get at least 6, even if we lose to the Griz for that single loss. The thinking being both teams end up at 33 losses, and if we are also at 33 we have the best conference record of the 3. Does this sound correct to you guys?

If we are in a two team tie with the Grizzlies at the end of the year they would win the tie-breaker.

Here is the upgraded odds according to basketball reference

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Here is the updated head to head records between teams.

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/cE8b9o.png

Yeah, we need the Clippers to only lose the 1. I was thinking of 3 way tie, but you are correct that if the Clippers drop to 34 and we stay at 33 then Memphis could tie break us.

[shrink]

I appreciate you guys being all over the complicated tie-breaker scenarios.

Too early for me, with probably 5 factorial (120) combinations. I promise to join you when a few things are more decided, and it doesn’t fry my brain!

[younggunsmn]

The game we have in Memphis is going to decide a lot of things.
Maybe Ja will keep up his finger guns BS and get himself suspended.

Ant also needs to keep his head because his next technical foul is a suspension too.

[younggunsmn]

Our best paths are for Denver, Memphis, and the Clippers to keep losing.
Going to be really hard to win any tiebreaker scenarios with the Lakers and Warriors as one of them will have the division winner trump card and both win head to head tiebreakers over us.

Pulling Denver into multi-team tiebreaker scenarios is also a huge advantage for us as we are 4-0 vs them.

For us, 50 wins (5-0) will get us near 100% a top 6 seed. We will pass Memphis outright, gain one game on eithe LAC or GSW,
Worst case scenario, LAC wins that game and all the other teams above us win out and we end up in a 3 way tie for 5-6-7 with GSW and LAC, which I believe we win.

49 wins (4-1) is probably going to be about a 75% shot. Higher if the one loss isn't to Memphis.
48 wins (3-2) will probably be a sub 50% chance and we will need a lot of help.

[TimberKat]

I appreciate you guys being all over the complicated tie-breaker scenarios.

Too early for me, with probably 5 factorial (120) combinations. I promise to join you when a few things are more decided, and it doesn’t fry my brain!

Yes, love those spreadsheet and monte carlo simulations. On the simple view side, just win baby! Win out, we are #3,#4, lose one, we are #6, Anything else, ride the back of the pickup truck.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Find it funny that no matter what over the last
month+, we stay stuck at the 7th seed. Might be our destiny, and not that bad of a place to be.

[shrink]

April 6

#3 LAL (47-30). 0.0 GB
#4 DEN (47-31). 0.5 GB
#5 GSW (46-31). 1.0 GB

#6 MIN (46-32). 1.5 GB
#7 LAC (46-32). 1.5 GB
#8 MEM (46-32). 1.5 GB

LAL: @OKC, @OKC, @DAL (btb), vsHOU, @POR
DEN: vsIND, @SAC, vsMEM, @HOU
GSW: vsHOU, @PHX, vsSAS (btb), @POR, vsLAC
MIN: @MIL, @MEM, vsBRK (btb), vsUTA
LAC: vsSAS, vsHOU (btb), @SAC, @GSW
MEM: @CHA, vsMIN, @DEN (btb), vsDAL


Games Tonight, April 6

2:30 PM: LAL (47-30) @ OKC (64-13). OKC favored by 8.5. NBA TV

7:00 PM: IND (46-31) @ DEN (47-31). DEN favored by 5.5

7:30 PM: HOU (51-27) @ GSW (46-31). GSW favored by 4.5. NBA TV

[Neeva]

Find it funny that no matter what over the last
month+, we stay stuck at the 7th seed. Might be our destiny, and not that bad of a place to be.

Too many f ups against inferior competition earlier that home loss to Pacers b team and the home loss to hackless wizards are huge right now

[TimberKat]

Find it funny that no matter what over the last
month+, we stay stuck at the 7th seed. Might be our destiny, and not that bad of a place to be.

Too many f ups against inferior competition earlier that home loss to Pacers b team and the home loss to hackless wizards are huge right now

What is even worse is the OT loss to Huston. Just win that game would had made Wolves the in-season tournament division winner. We would be in 4th place place right now. One game behind LAL. Also keep HOU interested in the last 4 games vs GSW, LAC, LAL,DEN. Wolves very possibly looking to take the #2 seed.