Post Mortem #9 - Portland Trail Blazers

[monopoman]

They're not a treadmill team only because they haven't quite climbed on it yet. Low ceiling unless they luck into a top-two pick. Deni will be gone before this team plays meaningful games beyond April. Scoot and Sharpe have not earned, but will get, giant extensions. Hell, they'll probably bring back Ayton and Simons too.

Cronin extension:

On what planet would they trade Deni? He is arguably the best player on the team right now, I would be stunned to see him traded especially since he is not really pushing for a trade.

[Tim Lehrbach]

They're not a treadmill team only because they haven't quite climbed on it yet. Low ceiling unless they luck into a top-two pick. Deni will be gone before this team plays meaningful games beyond April. Scoot and Sharpe have not earned, but will get, giant extensions. Hell, they'll probably bring back Ayton and Simons too.

Cronin extension:

On what planet would they trade Deni? He is arguably the best player on the team right now, I would be stunned to see him traded especially since he is not really pushing for a trade.

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

[monopoman]

They're not a treadmill team only because they haven't quite climbed on it yet. Low ceiling unless they luck into a top-two pick. Deni will be gone before this team plays meaningful games beyond April. Scoot and Sharpe have not earned, but will get, giant extensions. Hell, they'll probably bring back Ayton and Simons too.

Cronin extension:

On what planet would they trade Deni? He is arguably the best player on the team right now, I would be stunned to see him traded especially since he is not really pushing for a trade.

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

He's under contract until the 2027-2028 season so for three more seasons, and his contract is insanely valuable for his level of play. Unless he starts getting very upset and going to the media frustrated the earliest he could walk would be in that 2028 off-season. This team is also trending the right direction, it's one thing to be on a team stuck at the bottom year in year out, but the Blazers are improving, so I just don't find him playing the trade demand game.

He will be making slightly less each season and it goes down to $11 million in that final season which for a guy like him is dirt cheap.

[Tim Lehrbach]

On what planet would they trade Deni? He is arguably the best player on the team right now, I would be stunned to see him traded especially since he is not really pushing for a trade.

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

He's under contract until the 2027-2028 season so for three more seasons, and his contract is insanely valuable for his level of play. Unless he starts getting very upset and going to the media frustrated the earliest he could walk would be in that 2028 off-season. This team is also trending the right direction, it's one thing to be on a team stuck at the bottom year in year out, but the Blazers are improving, so I just don't find him playing the trade demand game.

He will be making slightly less each season and it goes down to $11 million in that final season which for a guy like him is dirt cheap.

Yes, there are myriad reasons to be excited about Deni. Don't mind me.

[sp6r=underrated]

I wish we could replace Dallas with Portland for the play-in.

[playoffs]

On what planet would they trade Deni? He is arguably the best player on the team right now, I would be stunned to see him traded especially since he is not really pushing for a trade.

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

He's under contract until the 2027-2028 season so for three more seasons, and his contract is insanely valuable for his level of play. Unless he starts getting very upset and going to the media frustrated the earliest he could walk would be in that 2028 off-season. This team is also trending the right direction, it's one thing to be on a team stuck at the bottom year in year out, but the Blazers are improving, so I just don't find him playing the trade demand game.

He will be making slightly less each season and it goes down to $11 million in that final season which for a guy like him is dirt cheap.

I'm not a salary cap savant, but I read somewhere that there was a concern that because of Deni's super cheap contract, Portland will be limited in how much they can offer Deni in an extension and would need cap space to offer him what he would command in free agency. Though I couldn't find any confirmation that this is a real issue. My understanding is that once a player plays for a team for 3 years, he is eligible for a full max extension. If anyone here is more knowledgeable on these issues, feel free to chime in.

[monopoman]

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

He's under contract until the 2027-2028 season so for three more seasons, and his contract is insanely valuable for his level of play. Unless he starts getting very upset and going to the media frustrated the earliest he could walk would be in that 2028 off-season. This team is also trending the right direction, it's one thing to be on a team stuck at the bottom year in year out, but the Blazers are improving, so I just don't find him playing the trade demand game.

He will be making slightly less each season and it goes down to $11 million in that final season which for a guy like him is dirt cheap.

I'm not a salary cap savant, but I read somewhere that there was a concern that because of Deni's super cheap contract, Portland will be limited in how much they can offer Deni in an extension and would need cap space to offer him what he would command in free agency. Though I couldn't find any confirmation that this is a real issue. My understanding is that once a player plays for a team for 3 years, he is eligible for a full max extension. If anyone here is more knowledgeable on these issues, feel free to chime in.

Yeah, I can't say I know of that provision if that is the case though that could cause problems for the Blazers potentially.

[BruttoNostra]

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

He's under contract until the 2027-2028 season so for three more seasons, and his contract is insanely valuable for his level of play. Unless he starts getting very upset and going to the media frustrated the earliest he could walk would be in that 2028 off-season. This team is also trending the right direction, it's one thing to be on a team stuck at the bottom year in year out, but the Blazers are improving, so I just don't find him playing the trade demand game.

He will be making slightly less each season and it goes down to $11 million in that final season which for a guy like him is dirt cheap.

I'm not a salary cap savant, but I read somewhere that there was a concern that because of Deni's super cheap contract, Portland will be limited in how much they can offer Deni in an extension and would need cap space to offer him what he would command in free agency. Though I couldn't find any confirmation that this is a real issue. My understanding is that once a player plays for a team for 3 years, he is eligible for a full max extension. If anyone here is more knowledgeable on these issues, feel free to chime in.

I think you're correct. They will be able to extend him for 120% of his 27-28 salary, which obviously won't happen, even if he becomes 80% of the player he is today.
But then he will be a RFA in the summer of 2028 and they will hold his Bird Rights, so they will be able to go over the cap to resign him. The downside is if they'll have to match a max offer (assuming they don't like him at max 3 years from now)

[Pistol King]

I'm very intrigued to see how they are going to look like next season.

They remind me of the 2024 Rockets in the sense that they have a core of 5-6 players 24 years old or under who are promising, with Deni looking like a potential All NBA level player the last few months and Camara showing perennial All Defense potential. I'm a big fan of Clingan as well, dude's defensive presence in the paint is almost unmatchable, he just needs to improve his conditioning. Sharpe and Scoot have high ceiling as well if they can improve their decision making and defense. I'll throw in also Ryan Rupert to the mix of their young guys, I think he has a lot of potential. And even their 7-11th guys under 25 years old can help you winning some games.

The biggest question marks are Chauncey Billups and the vet trio of Simons-Grant-Ayton. With Billups it's clear he has a vision defensively (though I really deslike his game plans against elite 3pt shooting teams), and he looks like a players-coach, but his offensive scheme is non existent and very old school. Very hard to succeed long term with such predictable and undisciplined offense. As of the Simons-Grant-Ayton trio, I think all of them are serviceable had they accepted a bench role, the question is would they? I wouldn't want to see any of them starting over the young core going forward.

Hitting on another lotto pick in the coming draft, giving Deni the keys right from the start (it took Billups few months to prioritize him over Grant), add in another growth year from the young guys alongside a more modern offensive system and they can be one of the most exciting teams to watch next season.

[Pattycakes]

How the Grant/Simons trades go are interesting. Do we retain any value or just straight across salary dumps? Guess we’ll see

[Helsbyte]

They don't have a 1st option yet. Everyone on that roster should be available to trade for an all star. Current trajectory is a treadmill team in the 6-10 range with no upside to a championship. Now I know this sounds harsh and it is not meant to be, it is just an honest opinion from someone who has no stake in them.

[Helsbyte]

On what planet would they trade Deni? He is arguably the best player on the team right now, I would be stunned to see him traded especially since he is not really pushing for a trade.

I didn't mean a trade. I meant he'll walk in free agency before this team sniffs the second round. I shouldn't be so pessimistic, probably.

He's under contract until the 2027-2028 season so for three more seasons, and his contract is insanely valuable for his level of play. Unless he starts getting very upset and going to the media frustrated the earliest he could walk would be in that 2028 off-season. This team is also trending the right direction, it's one thing to be on a team stuck at the bottom year in year out, but the Blazers are improving, so I just don't find him playing the trade demand game.

He will be making slightly less each season and it goes down to $11 million in that final season which for a guy like him is dirt cheap.

The reason to trade Deni would be his value is at the highest it will ever be. I like him alot, very good player but at the end of the day he is a role player that is probably a 3rd/4th option on a contending team. He would definitely be part of a trade for a star. Now if Portland is happy being a treadmill team then by all means keep him.

[jowglenn]

Very positive season for them, and it could have easily gone the other way. People thought Scoot Henderson was a total bust, that trading picks for Deni Avdija was a complete nonsense move, that Billups was the worst coach in the league, that they're saddled with the worst contracts in Ayton and Grant, etc, etc. Everyone said they should be max-tanking and instead they were foolishly gunning for the bottom of the middle.

But the fact is, as we've seen with teams like Houston, you gotta try to win at some point if you want to become a winning team. And that's what Portland is doing. They're trying their best, developing their players, and putting out a product on the floor every night where they believe they can win against anyone.

Do they have a bona fide star player? Not really. Is their payroll still a bit messy with those overpaid guys? Yeah. But they're building something. Their guys can see a future where they are winners. And that matters a lot.

[Pistol King]

The reason to trade Deni would be his value is at the highest it will ever be. I like him alot, very good player but at the end of the day he is a role player that is probably a 3rd/4th option on a contending team. He would definitely be part of a trade for a star. Now if Portland is happy being a treadmill team then by all means keep him.

I'd have agreed with you 2 seasons ago. Heck, even 1 season ago if you thought his flashes were too minor and unsustainable. This season though, on his last 50 games since the rough adjusting period coming to a new team, he is probably Portland's best player, producing 19/8/4 when the Blazers are at a 25-25 record. On his last 20 games where his minutes per game got bumped to 33 MPG and he was more prioritized he was already at 23/10/5 on 64 TS% when POR are at 10-10 record in this stretch.

I have a feeling people calling him a role player are basing it on previews seasons impressions. He is a different animal this season, almost unstoppable when getting down hill, draws fouls and FTs at an elite rate with his combination of speed and size, and has improved his ball handling and body control tremendously. I'd dare them to catch some of his last 20-30 games when he has looked like the best player on the court from either teams for most nights (excluding the Boston games). If you look for specific game of "I'm sold this guy has an All NBA potential", go and watch his first half against the Grizzles from three weeks ago. Role players just aren't looking this impressive.

Looking forward to seeing how their young core looks like next season when they are more prioritized. It contains an exciting potential.

[Pattycakes]

It’s cool to see non blazers fans more excited for our core than actual “blazers fans”, or so they claim online

[Chuck Everett]

It’s cool to see non blazers fans more excited for our core than actual “blazers fans”, or so they claim online

Isn't the historical knock on most Blazers fans is that they only watch Portland and not the rest of the league? Some of us do watch the entire league via League Pass and see that Portland has anywhere from 8-11 guys other franchises would love to add to their rosters if they became available.

[EmpireFalls]

I see only 3 players worth building around

Camara
Avdija
Clingan

[brackdan70]

I like their situation. Solid young team with upside.
Nailing their pick this year is important.

[brackdan70]

I see only 3 players worth building around

Camara
Avdija
Clingan

Scoot and Sharpe are both under 22 and made nice jumps this year. Most notable in impact stats.
More improvements needed but I am not writing those guys off.

[Pattycakes]

I see only 3 players worth building around

Camara
Avdija
Clingan

Scoot and Sharpe are both under 22 and made nice jumps this year. Most notable in impact stats.
More improvements needed but I am not writing those guys off.

Yep. And those guys can all start too.

We just need to add a couple more gems this offseason, trade some of the overpaid vets/oft injured and things will really be looking good going into next year.