The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES

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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#81 » by tsherkin » Thu May 8, 2025 1:19 pm

zimpy27 wrote:I think Mazzula has pushed 3 volume up high expecting the shots to win% to be linear but it appears to be parabolic. Celtics are shooting too many 3s at this point, if they do lose this series then I expect he will correct the plan next season.


That's the hope. I imagine it would be better if he adjusted a little more game to game, though.

Celtics are in unchartered territory, Mazzula explored. It doesn't make him a bad coach


Agreed. And to be fair, they've had the best offense in the league for two years running, are the defending champions, and they still defend very well.

This year, he's pushed it VERY far. Their offense regressed. Tatum regressed, and we are seeing the results of shooting variance when more than half of their shots are low-FG% 3s which are tough to reclaim as offensive rebounds.

This is my endless frustration with Tatum, and again, realizing that there's a heavy dose of coach influence here: he has the tools to do more than just bomb 3s. And he really needs to. He's a pretty good slasher, a pretty good post player, and he has a middie, he just doesn't use it anymore. He needs to be brutalizing people at the elbow and the nail when Ds tighten up on him. And a little more elbow post, not just mid-post. He could be so much more consistent and so much more dangerous on nights when his 3 isn't falling. He isn't all that from 3, he never has been, from the moment he stopped smashing it from the corners. His ATB 3pt shot is decent but non-elite, and that's not something you want to smash in volume.

So we'll have to see what comes next. Boston's due for at least one shooting variance swing in their favor, and I don't know that it would be a good thing, because it might bring some confirmation bias that this is the right strategy.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#82 » by Scalabrine » Thu May 8, 2025 1:27 pm

picc wrote:They've been blowing the Knicks out for half the series and are somehow down 0-2.

Discuss.


Somehow? How do the Knicks have more points than them this series? Maybe because the Knicks have been blowing them out for the other half the series haha.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#83 » by Mamba Mentality » Thu May 8, 2025 1:42 pm

Optms wrote:
Handlez wrote:Don't be surprised if Boston wins series.


I'm surprised they blew homecourt.

Why would they play better in New York and the Knicks worse?


Knicks are 5-0 on the road, and 1-2 at home this postseason so a comeback is certainly plausible. Also, Boston is currently -105 to win the series so Vegas thinks this is far from over.
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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#84 » by NoStatsGuy » Thu May 8, 2025 1:47 pm

CometGM wrote:
Kalela wrote:
CometGM wrote:Knicks defense being underrated here. Getting stops at the right time and running at them at the 3 point line.


It is not the Knicks defense. They are chucking threes all game and missing them.


Dude, just stop now. They shot 40 3's, almost 10 below their season average. Yes, they shot a low percentage, and the Knicks had to do with that.


trust me, they didnt wanna shoot 40 threes that night. its the only thing they can get. knicks defense showed up big time. mitch was a +19 and mazulla hacked him and went into the bonus to get him off the court. he admitted it..

i know its hard to grasp for most of us. i will be honest, never ever did i believe we would go home up 2-0. this is not only celtics killing themselves, this is just as much about Tatum and Brown being helpless and not getting by OG and Mikal. thats why they settle. brown has bad handles and tatum has no first step. The knicks defense definitley deserves credit here.
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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#85 » by tsherkin » Thu May 8, 2025 2:11 pm

NoStatsGuy wrote:trust me, they didnt wanna shoot 40 threes that night. its the only thing they can get.


That wasn't my takeaway watching them at all. They seemed able to start possessions inside the arc pretty well. They were able to get past the outside defender, enter a pass into the post, etc. But they were pulling early 3s a lot and they were sloppy and loose off the bounce all night, and New York pounced all over that. Right at the rim, the defense was pretty good, but Boston was also smashing the offensive boards and just failing to finish, time and again. The Knicks did play very good D, but Boston's culpable in their own failings on this one, they had options, they just anchored themselves to 3pt shooting and struggled to get anything done.
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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#86 » by NoStatsGuy » Thu May 8, 2025 2:17 pm

tsherkin wrote:
NoStatsGuy wrote:trust me, they didnt wanna shoot 40 threes that night. its the only thing they can get.


That wasn't my takeaway watching them at all. They seemed able to start possessions inside the arc pretty well. They were able to get past the outside defender, enter a pass into the post, etc. But they were pulling early 3s a lot and they were sloppy and loose off the bounce all night, and New York pounced all over that. Right at the rim, the defense was pretty good, but Boston was also smashing the offensive boards and just failing to finish, time and again. The Knicks did play very good D, but Boston's culpable in their own failings on this one, they had options, they just anchored themselves to 3pt shooting and struggled to get anything done.


fair point. i guess more what i meant was, that they still resorted to turnaround fadeaway jump shots, even on 2nd chance points. They are not imposing their will, they avoid contact and dont wanna go through that defense for whatever reason.

it wasnt only about threes more about the setteling for jumpers.
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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#87 » by tsherkin » Thu May 8, 2025 2:19 pm

NoStatsGuy wrote:fair point. i guess more what i meant was, that they still resorted to turnaround fadeaway jump shots, even on 2nd chance points. They are not imposing their will, they avoid contact and dont wanna go through that defense for whatever reason.

it wasnt only about threes more about the setteling for jumpers.


They weren't driving enough, that's for sure. And they struggled to finish on the inside in general. Mitch isn't easy to work around and then the pressure from OG and Bridges did not do Boston any favors, no doubt. New York has been tough so far.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#88 » by dhsilv2 » Thu May 8, 2025 3:02 pm

For all the 3 point missed talk, they aren't exactly scoring inside either. They shot 44.4% on 2's last game. Boston has a scoring problem in general here.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#89 » by KG Leonard » Thu May 8, 2025 3:08 pm

cgf wrote:
KG Leonard wrote:
cgf wrote:
Thibs has been abusing Joe at every turn. But some of this is OG & Mikal not being b***boys like the Jays, the knicks bigs not being washed, and the Celtics getting Brunson'd :dontknow:


Brunson? The guy who shoot 6-19? Looks he was carried by Towns and OG, Bridges. You can't suck 47 minutes and get the last shot. Brunson is so overrated this playoffs, the guy was acting like all-time playoffs performer after winning Vs a team with Tobias Harris who won 20 games last season......


When the refs don't save you from Towns, like they did in game 1, Jalen can take it easy until crunchtime and he doesn't need to go off like he did in the opener. So we'll see if you can force Jalen to need to do more in game 3 :wink:

If your team had half the tenacity of that team with Tobias Harris who won 20 games last season...or someone like Cade to turn too...this would be a very different series.

Of course, it's not like Orlando played you close for 4 games because of their tough defense and the physicality they were allowed to play with, prompting Celtics fans to celebrate Tatum's performance in that first round series...


I don't care who performs well in Knicks, if Bridges and OG is having all-time series with all due respect.
I'm angry with my Celtics because Knicks has so many flaws to exploit. I'm pissed they fooled around and lost like this. Even if they win this series, I don't believe they can win the title.
Their lazy game and mental softness means if you can't go the finals, the whole season was pointless. Should have been worried by all the bad signs of the terrible home record.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#90 » by cgf » Thu May 8, 2025 3:18 pm

KG Leonard wrote:
cgf wrote:
KG Leonard wrote:
Brunson? The guy who shoot 6-19? Looks he was carried by Towns and OG, Bridges. You can't suck 47 minutes and get the last shot. Brunson is so overrated this playoffs, the guy was acting like all-time playoffs performer after winning Vs a team with Tobias Harris who won 20 games last season......


When the refs don't save you from Towns, like they did in game 1, Jalen can take it easy until crunchtime and he doesn't need to go off like he did in the opener. So we'll see if you can force Jalen to need to do more in game 3 :wink:

If your team had half the tenacity of that team with Tobias Harris who won 20 games last season...or someone like Cade to turn too...this would be a very different series.

Of course, it's not like Orlando played you close for 4 games because of their tough defense and the physicality they were allowed to play with, prompting Celtics fans to celebrate Tatum's performance in that first round series...


I don't care who performs well in Knicks, if Bridges and OG is having all-time series with all due respect.
I'm angry with my Celtics because Knicks has so many flaws to exploit. I'm pissed they fooled around and lost like this. Even if they win this series, I don't believe they can win the title.
Their lazy game and mental softness means if you can't go the finals, the whole season was pointless. Should have been worried by all the bad signs of the terrible home record.


That’s what a lot of people thought because they overreacted to the regular season matchups when we didn’t have Robinson…but we now see that a lot of those “flaws to exploit” had more to do with Thibs keeping his cards close to his chest until the playoffs started.

The Celtics are showing that they are still a soft team, but the Knicks have also shown that they’re a lot better than they got credit for being this year. And Towns is proving that he can be a force in the playoffs when he’s not in foul trouble.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#91 » by cgf » Thu May 8, 2025 3:24 pm

tsherkin wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:I think Mazzula has pushed 3 volume up high expecting the shots to win% to be linear but it appears to be parabolic. Celtics are shooting too many 3s at this point, if they do lose this series then I expect he will correct the plan next season.


That's the hope. I imagine it would be better if he adjusted a little more game to game, though.

Celtics are in unchartered territory, Mazzula explored. It doesn't make him a bad coach


Agreed. And to be fair, they've had the best offense in the league for two years running, are the defending champions, and they still defend very well.

This year, he's pushed it VERY far. Their offense regressed. Tatum regressed, and we are seeing the results of shooting variance when more than half of their shots are low-FG% 3s which are tough to reclaim as offensive rebounds.

This is my endless frustration with Tatum, and again, realizing that there's a heavy dose of coach influence here: he has the tools to do more than just bomb 3s. And he really needs to. He's a pretty good slasher, a pretty good post player, and he has a middie, he just doesn't use it anymore. He needs to be brutalizing people at the elbow and the nail when Ds tighten up on him. And a little more elbow post, not just mid-post. He could be so much more consistent and so much more dangerous on nights when his 3 isn't falling. He isn't all that from 3, he never has been, from the moment he stopped smashing it from the corners. His ATB 3pt shot is decent but non-elite, and that's not something you want to smash in volume.

So we'll have to see what comes next. Boston's due for at least one shooting variance swing in their favor, and I don't know that it would be a good thing, because it might bring some confirmation bias that this is the right strategy.


Boston having a game where they just can’t miss regardless of their shot quality in game 3 could be the best thing that could happen for us if it helped Thibs continue baiting them into mediocre shots for the rest of the series.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#92 » by tsherkin » Thu May 8, 2025 3:26 pm

cgf wrote:Boston having a game where they just can’t miss regardless of their shot quality in game 3 could be the best thing that could happen for us if it helped Thibs continue baiting them into mediocre shots for the rest of the series.


That's exactly what I mean, I think it'd be hardcore fool's gold for them, motivating them to keep approaching the game with their insane 3PAr. And that would play directly into New York's hands.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#93 » by OkcSinceSGA » Thu May 8, 2025 3:29 pm

Celtics haven’t looked good in the playoffs. I was right about the Rockets, Thunder, and Celtics so far. They can still win the series and come out of the east but the problems I pointed out are rearing their head big time.

1. Tatum is an up and down streaky shooter, who disappears for long stretches.

2. Team lives and dies by the 3.

3. Other teams have caught up in talent.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#94 » by nitric0 » Thu May 8, 2025 3:31 pm

Tatum is just getting exposed for who he is
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#95 » by Lalouie » Thu May 8, 2025 4:38 pm

Tatum is like mpj now
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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#96 » by Kalela » Thu May 8, 2025 4:47 pm

LFGK wrote:
Kalela wrote:
CometGM wrote:
Dude, just stop now. They shot 40 3's, almost 10 below their season average. Yes, they shot a low percentage, and the Knicks had to do with that.

Nope. They are missing wide open shots. Knicks are packing the paint. That is about it.

This serious? You watching what OG and Bridges are doing to their 2 top guns? Before tonight OG held whoever he was defending to 2/17


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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#97 » by CometGM » Thu May 8, 2025 4:57 pm

Kalela wrote:
LFGK wrote:
Kalela wrote:Nope. They are missing wide open shots. Knicks are packing the paint. That is about it.

This serious? You watching what OG and Bridges are doing to their 2 top guns? Before tonight OG held whoever he was defending to 2/17


Read on Twitter


You can try to spin it any way you'd like and the fact remains that the Knicks defense is also affecting them.
This 2 minute clip shows about 30 missed 3 pointers, more than half which are very questionable that they were "wide open".

Even if I take the word for it, that's just 30 out of 100 3point attempts in 2 games.
Bro, again, just stop. You are reaching. Yes, obviously the Celtics have missed some shots they would normally hit, but the Knicks have something to do with that as well. It's not just one or the other.
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Re: The Celtics have blown two 20+ leads in two games 

Post#98 » by cgf » Thu May 8, 2025 5:02 pm

Kalela wrote:
LFGK wrote:
Kalela wrote:Nope. They are missing wide open shots. Knicks are packing the paint. That is about it.

This serious? You watching what OG and Bridges are doing to their 2 top guns? Before tonight OG held whoever he was defending to 2/17


Read on Twitter


Can you please send this to Mazulla so he continues to think he doesn’t need to make any adjustments?

Pretty please?
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#99 » by wco81 » Thu May 8, 2025 5:09 pm

zimpy27 wrote:I think Mazzula has pushed 3 volume up high expecting the shots to win% to be linear but it appears to be parabolic. Celtics are shooting too many 3s at this point, if they do lose this series then I expect he will correct the plan next season.

Celtics are in unchartered territory, Mazzula explored. It doesn't make him a bad coach



Shooting 25% in both games is way below the mean.

So they should have a hot-shooting game.

They were generating good looks, dozens of wide open shots which they missed.

Knicks all season were poor in opponent 3P%, because they don't close out that aggressively.

So they've been lucky, though they seized their chances.
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Re: The Celtics have blown 20+ leads in BOTH GAMES 

Post#100 » by cgf » Thu May 8, 2025 5:34 pm

wco81 wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:I think Mazzula has pushed 3 volume up high expecting the shots to win% to be linear but it appears to be parabolic. Celtics are shooting too many 3s at this point, if they do lose this series then I expect he will correct the plan next season.

Celtics are in unchartered territory, Mazzula explored. It doesn't make him a bad coach



Shooting 25% in both games is way below the mean.

So they should have a hot-shooting game.

They were generating good looks, dozens of wide open shots which they missed.

Knicks all season were poor in opponent 3P%, because they don't close out that aggressively.

So they've been lucky, though they seized their chances.


We can only hope that the Celtics think those were good looks and they just need to wait for them to start falling.
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