2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Sinobas]

Drafting stars is the best path to sustained success.

Not meaningless win streaks on a rebuilding team that cause a drop in draft range from top 5 to 10th.

Great players can be found 10th or later but the best odds are at the top of the draft.

Maybe the lotto balls will favor the Blazers this time.

What on earth difference does it make if you draft or trade for a player? When you trade for a player, you at least know what you're getting.

The difference between a franchise drafting a 19-20 year old vs. trading for a 29 year old is substantial.

Sabonis is a good player, but I agree with JRoy that the Blazers have to be very careful with how they upgrade.

Sabonis makes 40M a year and doesn’t shoot outside of 10’ from the basket…usually withn 5…have to carefully consider roster, offensive and defensive system moving forward, and which younger player(s) you’re willing to give up on in order to keep Sabonis a Blazer.

Huh? He's shot 37,38 and 42% from 3pt range over the past 3 seasons. He has good percentages from all over the court.

[Walton1one]

This idea will probably get hate but: Sharpe, Simons, #10 2025 Heat for Tyler Herro. I'd rather use those assets to get Sabonis, or maybe a Trae Young.

But this would upgrade the SG position. Herro is the SG we wish Sharpe/Simons could be. And he's young, efficient, and more than just a scorer in that he can also pass and rebound. His PER is ranked #5 in the league for SGs. He also versatile can play PG as well, so could be part of a 3 guard rotation.

It would "solve" a position for us, leaving PG as the only question mark but we'd still have Scoot. Herro and Deni could also potentially be our future backcourt if we get another forward. In that case he'd probably the lone defensive weakness on the team, but would give us the scoring punch our otherwise defensive lineup would need.

Am I reading this right?

#10, Sharpe and Simons for Tyler Herro?

There is no way I would ever consider that trade. I wouldn’t include either #10 or Sharpe in a deal for a Herro

Herro is much better than Simons or Sharpe. And there is a very slim chance the player we draft at #10 would be better than Herro.

Herro had a higher PER than any Blazer last year. Herro 5th among SGs and Sharpe and Simons ranked 35 and 36.

Herro's PER was on par with other all-stars,(which he was one himself), Sharpe and Simon's was on par with backups.

I agree that Herro is better than Simons, and he had a very good year, career best: 23.9 - 5.2 - 5.5 - 47.2/37.5 shooting

FYI, Simons LY 22.6 - 3.6 - 5.5 - 43/38.5 shooting

Herro is also a better defender 114.9 DRTG - Simons 119 DRTG

But the gap is not worth Shaedon Sharpe AND #10, not even worth one of them, and Sharpe (I feel like a broken record) will be 22yrs old next year, both Herro\Simons will be 26

When Herro was 22, he averaged: 20.7 - 5 - 4 - 44.7/39.9

Sharpe this last season averaged: 18.5 - 4.5 - 2.8 - 45.2/31.1

Sharpe has a ways to go still and IMO POR would be stupid to trade him now. They need to resign him to another deal (3-4 years) and if he doesn't progress during that deal, then they can trade him, b\c there will be plenty of team still willing to take a gamble on a 24/25 6'6 athletic player who can average 15-20ppg

The 10th pick in this draft, should net a rotation player, hopefully a player even better. Everyone was talking about how LY draft was weak, would you be surprised to know that there were around 25 players selected in that draft who ended up as rotation players (10th in avg minutes or better)?

1st round - Collier, Dunn, George, Missi, da Silva, Knecht, Walter, McCain, Ware, Carrington, Buzelis, Williams, Edey, Clingan, Castle, Sarr, Risacher

2nd round - Filipowski, Mitchell, Wells, Oghodaro, Larsson, Shead, Post

That was in a worse draft, POR should be able to add a good rotational player in this draft,

[Sinobas]

Drafting stars is the best path to sustained success.

Not meaningless win streaks on a rebuilding team that cause a drop in draft range from top 5 to 10th.

Great players can be found 10th or later but the best odds are at the top of the draft.

Maybe the lotto balls will favor the Blazers this time.

What on earth difference does it make if you draft or trade for a player? When you trade for a player, you at least know what you're getting.

The difference between a franchise drafting a 19-20 year old vs. trading for a 29 year old is substantial.

Sabonis is a good player, but I agree with JRoy that the Blazers have to be very careful with how they upgrade.

Sabonis makes 40M a year and doesn’t shoot outside of 10’ from the basket…usually withn 5…have to carefully consider roster, offensive and defensive system moving forward, and which younger player(s) you’re willing to give up on in order to keep Sabonis a Blazer.

So you think Sabonis is too old for our core? He's 4 years older than Camara and Deni, a 19-20 year old would be 4 years younger, so you're in the same boat in that regard. And they are more likely to not develop into a player any where close to Sabonis caliber.

And Sabonis is still in the middle of his prime. He's a skilled big man, so I don't think he's in danger of declining soon.

We have enough pieces now to put the chips in and build a good team. This could be the last lottery pick we get for a long time. And this roster right now looks like a middling purgatory team. But a player like Sabonis would make is a real force.

[JRoy]

If you upgraded your roster, who cares? Your chance of upgrading your starting lineup with any given draft pick is slim. At least with a trade you know what you're getting.

Example, here is a list of players taken with the #10 selection over the past 30 years. How many are as good as Sabonis? I count 3. How many would be a substantial upgrade to our current starting lineup? I count 5. Slim odds.

2024: Cody Williams (Utah Jazz)

2023: Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder)

2022: Johnny Davis (Washington Wizards)

2021: Ziaire Williams (Memphis Grizzlies)

2020: Jalen Smith (Phoenix Suns)

2019: Cam Reddish (Atlanta Hawks)

2018: Mikal Bridges (Philadelphia 76ers)

2017: Zach Collins (Sacramento Kings)

2016: Thon Maker (Milwaukee Bucks)

2015: Justise Winslow (Miami Heat)

2014: Elfrid Payton (Philadelphia 76ers)

2013: CJ McCollum (Portland Trail Blazers)

2012: Austin Rivers (New Orleans Hornets)

2011: Jimmer Fredette (Milwaukee Bucks)

2010: Paul George (Indiana Pacers)

2009: Brandon Jennings (Milwaukee Bucks)

2008: Brook Lopez (New Jersey Nets)

2007: Spencer Hawes (Sacramento Kings)

2006: Mouhamed Sene (Seattle SuperSonics)

2005: Andrew Bynum (Los Angeles Lakers)

2004: Luke Jackson (Cleveland Cavaliers)

2003: Jarvis Hayes (Washington Wizards)

2002: Caron Butler (Miami Heat)

2001: Joe Johnson (Boston Celtics)

2000: Keyon Dooling (Orlando Magic)

1999: Jason Terry (Atlanta Hawks)

1998: Paul Pierce (Boston Celtics)

1997: Danny Fortson (Milwaukee Bucks)

1996: Erick Dampier (Indiana Pacers)

1995: Kurt Thomas (Miami Heat)

You should look at all players drafted #10 and later because that is what the talent pool really looks like.

Plus you have the player on a rookie contract for years.

Sabonis is a fine player, but should be the second best player on a contending team.

No, because teams are not drafting with 20/20 hindsight. If teams were drafting with 20/20 hindsight, that would totally change the equation.

Yes, because POR is not fated to draft the same players at the same draft positions.

[JRoy]

What on earth difference does it make if you draft or trade for a player? When you trade for a player, you at least know what you're getting.

The difference between a franchise drafting a 19-20 year old vs. trading for a 29 year old is substantial.

Sabonis is a good player, but I agree with JRoy that the Blazers have to be very careful with how they upgrade.

Sabonis makes 40M a year and doesn’t shoot outside of 10’ from the basket…usually withn 5…have to carefully consider roster, offensive and defensive system moving forward, and which younger player(s) you’re willing to give up on in order to keep Sabonis a Blazer.

Huh? He's shot 37,38 and 42% from 3pt range over the past 3 seasons. He has good percentages from all over the court.

Sabonis is an excellent offensive player. His issues are on the other end. He needs other players around him to provide what centers provide; rim protection.

[zzaj]

What on earth difference does it make if you draft or trade for a player? When you trade for a player, you at least know what you're getting.

The difference between a franchise drafting a 19-20 year old vs. trading for a 29 year old is substantial.

Sabonis is a good player, but I agree with JRoy that the Blazers have to be very careful with how they upgrade.

Sabonis makes 40M a year and doesn’t shoot outside of 10’ from the basket…usually withn 5…have to carefully consider roster, offensive and defensive system moving forward, and which younger player(s) you’re willing to give up on in order to keep Sabonis a Blazer.

Huh? He's shot 37,38 and 42% from 3pt range over the past 3 seasons. He has good percentages from all over the court.

73% of his shots were 10’ and closer. 82% of his shots were 2pters. And 15% of his shots were from 3, on 2 per game.

He shoots good, high percentage shots, but Sabonis scores mostly in the paint—somewhat similar shot diet as Ayton, actually.

Your namesake is a good player, but IMHO, adding Sabonis to the roster doesn’t get them to the 8th seed in the West next season, and just furthers their years of potential low-seed playoff purgatory.

[PDXKnight]

The difference between a franchise drafting a 19-20 year old vs. trading for a 29 year old is substantial.

Sabonis is a good player, but I agree with JRoy that the Blazers have to be very careful with how they upgrade.

Sabonis makes 40M a year and doesn’t shoot outside of 10’ from the basket…usually withn 5…have to carefully consider roster, offensive and defensive system moving forward, and which younger player(s) you’re willing to give up on in order to keep Sabonis a Blazer.

Huh? He's shot 37,38 and 42% from 3pt range over the past 3 seasons. He has good percentages from all over the court.

Sabonis is an excellent offensive player. His issues are on the other end. He needs other players around him to provide what centers provide; rim protection.

Wasn't aware he isnt a rim protector. That id a huge negative for a big and he likely doesn't have the range go be a modern 4 either..

Good point by zzaj on him being 29. That's pretty old for a team just getting started. And if he's one of your top 3 pieces that really makes the window small so you'd better have 2 established all stars or 1 super duper star (perrenial top 5 mvp candidate) if you break the bank for that sort of player.

I think my feelings on a sabonis deal hinders on asking price. A gobert or lillard trade for sabonis would be too much, maybe you sacrifice 1-2 firsts if you think the addition plus roster improvement makes those firsts negligible

[dckingsfan]

Huh? He's shot 37,38 and 42% from 3pt range over the past 3 seasons. He has good percentages from all over the court.

Sabonis is an excellent offensive player. His issues are on the other end. He needs other players around him to provide what centers provide; rim protection.

Wasn't aware he isnt a rim protector. That id a huge negative for a big and he likely doesn't have the range go be a modern 4 either..

Good point by zzaj on him being 29. That's pretty old for a team just getting started. And if he's one of your top 3 pieces that really makes the window small so you'd better have 2 established all stars or 1 super duper star (perrenial top 5 mvp candidate) if you break the bank for that sort of player.

I think my feelings on a sabonis deal hinders on asking price. A gobert or lillard trade for sabonis would be too much, maybe you sacrifice 1-2 firsts if you think the addition plus roster improvement makes those firsts negligible

Three things.

Sabonis is a facilitator on offense and highly efficient. He passes the ball well, shoots the 3 well, is a terrific post player and sets screens well both for pick 'n pop and pick 'n roll. He would immediately make a huge difference on the offensive end of the court. He would be able to play C or slide to PF alongside Clingan. Adding Sabonis would immediately make the offense better.

On defense, he is a terrific rebounder - one of the best in the league. More switchable than Ayton or Clingan by far. Does he go for blocks - not often. As a reminder, his surrounding cast in Sac on D isn't all that. "I think" that rolled up with Camara, Thybulle and Deni - D won't be the issue (but maybe I am wrong there).

The trade (if one were to occur) will hinge totally on what Sac wants to do. Do they want to let the current group play out and add some length? Do they want to start a quicker rebuild and move Sabonis? Will they be irrational on the number of draft assets they want for him?

For the Blazers, you don't want to have to commit $40+M for the next 3 seasons AND give up lots of draft assets - that would long-term suicide.

Do I think that Sabonis for Ayton gets them into the playoffs - yep.

[Walton1one]

Keith Smith\Spotrac preview of POR offseason:

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2797/portland-trail-blazers-2025-offseason-preview

Offseason Approach
Pick a path: Rebuild around youth, or add vets for playoff push

Actual Cap Space
-$47.6 million

Projected Luxury Tax Space
$11.0 million

Dead Cap (0)
Didi Louzada ($268,032)

Projected Signing Exceptions
Non-Taxpayer MLE ($14.1 million)
Bi-Annual Exception ($5.1 million)

Notable Trade Exceptions
Malcolm Brogdon ($6.8 million)

Notable Extension Candidates
Deandre Ayton (veteran extension)
Toumani Camara (veteran extension)
Rayan Rupert (veteran extension)
Shaedon Sharpe (rookie scale extension)
Anfernee Simons (veteran extension)
Matisse Thybulle (veteran extension – if player option is picked up)
Jabari Walker (veteran extension – through June 30)
Robert Williams III (veteran extension)

Potential Free Agents (6)
Dalano Banton (unrestricted)
Bryce McGowens (restricted – two-way)
Justin Minaya (restricted – two-way)
Rayan Rupert (restricted – team option)
Matisse Thybulle (unrestricted – player option)
Jabari Walker (restricted)

Analysis

The Portland Trail Blazers were a much-improved team in the second half of the season...Normally, we’d celebrate that kind of improvement. Especially since Portland did it on the backs of most of their younger players, which should bode well for the future...a sinking feeling that the extra wins may have cost the Trail Blazers draft position in draft with terrific talent in the top part of the lottery...There’s also a worry that the Blazers front office might deem this group closer than they really are. Portland already rewarded general manager Joe Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups with new contracts. Could moves to chase a postseason spot be next?

More worrisome for Trail Blazers fans, the team could see the second-half improvement as reason to lock into this roster more than they should. Let’s start there, as that is what this offseason is about in Portland.

The Blazers remain a somewhat muddled mix of young players and a handful of mid-career vets. And that’s before you factor in 11-year veteran Jerami Grant, who doesn’t fit either description.

A quick look at things says that Portland should be building around a core of Shaedon Sharpe (who had his best season in Year 3), Scoot Henderson (who was much-improved in Year 2), Toumani Camara (who looks like the kind of Swiss army knife that all good teams have) and Donovan Clingan (who flashed a ton of potential, especially as a rim protector). Around those four are a whole lot of question marks.

Avdija? Think he left him out by mistake?

GRANT

Grant remains a solid, versatile forward, even if this season was a complete mess shooting-wise. Grant spent too many possessions never getting inside the arc. He’s a solid three-point shooter, but half of his shot mix came from behind the arc. Grant isn’t that kind of sniper. That needs to balance back out moving forward. He’s also slipped defensively. Still fairly solid, but not someone who draws the opponent’s best wing anymore.

AYTON

Deandre Ayton is entering the final year of his contract at $35.5 million. He remains a tantalizing offensive prospect and a better-than-you-think rebounder. But Ayton is still wildly inconsistent. One night Ayton looks like he has it all together. The next night, you barely know he’s on the court.

SIMONS

Anfernee Simons is a good shooter and a solid secondary playmaker. He’s decidedly not a point guard though, which limits him a bit. And his defense keeps him from being mentioned as a top-tier starting shooting guard, despite his playmaking and scoring abilities.

THYBULLE

Matisse Thybulle returned late in the season. He showed enough that we’re comfortable saying that he’s a rotation guy again. The volume wasn’t much this year, but it was a third straight year of solid shooting with the Blazers. Defense remains Thybulle’s calling card.

WILLIAMS

Robert Williams continues to be incredibly exciting…when he plays. The issue of staying on the court carried over to this season for Williams, as he was only able to play 20 games.

AVDIJA

Avdija put together arguably his best all-around season. He did more scoring, especially off-the-dribble scoring, then we’ve seen before. Avdija also chipped in with the playmaking, hit the glass and was solid, if unspectacular, on defense.

Why did we call out that group of six players? They’re all under contract for next season with Portland for a combined $134.4 million. That group of six – all solid, but not great – are the reason why the Blazers are sitting just shy of the luxury tax for next season...Each player in that group out of Grant, Ayton, Simons, Thybulle, and Williams (we’re excluding Avdija because he could/should be part of the core now) has a tradable contract.

Ayton’s deal is probably the worst in terms of single-season size vs production, but it’s an expiring deal. Some team who needs a center may be willing to gamble on Ayton, especially if it means moving off some money themselves. Centers who are reliably double-double guys don’t grow on trees, and inconsistent as he is, Ayton provides that.

Simons is very tradable as a guard who can shoot and score. At worst, he’s a third-guard on a contender. And he’s probably more valuable than that to a lot of teams who really need offense.

Thybulle has value as a 3&D guy, and he’s also on a very tradable expiring contract. Williams is essentially the big man version of Thybulle, because he’s terrific around the rim on both ends and on a very affordable expiring deal.

Then we have Jerami Grant.

Grant’s deal isn’t nearly as toxic as some have suggested... He’s overpaid, but not shockingly so. The challenge is that another team might use last season’s dip for forecast what’s to come. If so, then the contract becomes an issue...

This summer is going to be marked by trades. Almost no teams have spending power and the free agent class is fairly weak. If the Trail Blazers decide to lengthen out their rebuild around the younger players, they could cash in by trading any of their vets. They’ve also got the contracts, and some future draft assets, to move if they decide to make some swaps to push things forward this coming season.

...extensions for Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara...most important piece of business for the Trail Blazers as far as things go long-term...Sharpe is due for a rookie scale deal, while Camara is extension-eligible, but less likely to ink a new deal.

Sharpe’s upward ascension should have him in the range of signing a four-year, $112 million extension. That reflects his value now, while leaving some room for continued growth. You could even see things pushing a bit higher, if that’s what it takes to get a deal done.


That is $28mil/year. I'd bet Cronin signs him for more than that, given his history

Camara is in a different spot. He’s eligible to sign what we call the Dinwiddie Extension, which allows a team to extend a player on a salary that starts at up to 140% of the Average Player Salary. For next season, that projects to work out to a four-year, $89.3 million contract.

That is $22mil/year, doubt he signs for that

He was one of the best defenders of forwards and bigger wings in the league last season, but toiled in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest. He shot it well. Showed that he can create his own shot, and improved as a playmaker for others...Camara could delay signing a new deal until the summer of 2026 instead. If that’s the case, expect Portland to decline their team option for 2026-27 to make Camara a restricted free agent. That way, the Blazers can control the process.

Of their free agents, there aren’t any monumental decision-point this summer for the Trail Blazers. The expectation is for Thybulle to opt in. Portland will probably pick up their team option for Rayan Rupert, because there’s still some untapped potential there.

That leaves Dalano Banton and Jabari Walker as the free agents of note. Banton has shown he’s an NBA-level guy and an elite garbage-time scorer. He could be back on a minimum deal to fill out the bench. Same with Walker, who has shown flashes at times, but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. Their places on the roster likely depend on what happens with trades for the veterans.

The Portland Trail Blazers will have a chance to land a rotation player at the draft, despite possibly picking lower than is ideal. They’ll be active in trade talks, because of all of the tradable veterans they have. How it all plays out makes the Blazers one of the most fascinating teams to watch this summer.

[Walton1one]

Giannis news picking up a little steam

Read on Twitter

/history

If it is HOU or SA, then I would expect POR to be involved as a 3rd team, possibly NO instead, but POR owning 28/29/30 probably makes them the most likely if MIL wants their future picks back b\c both SA & HOU can offer picks this year and in 26/27 to offset

Read on Twitter

MIL wants to build around Giannis, the problem is with Dame lost for next season most likely and little trade capital to get something meaningful done, I think the writing is on the wall unless Giannis explicitly decides he wants to stay, and that is appearing unlikelier by the day

[oldfishermen]

Keith Smith\Spotrac preview of POR offseason:

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2797/portland-trail-blazers-2025-offseason-preview

Offseason Approach
Pick a path: Rebuild around youth, or add vets for playoff push

Actual Cap Space
-$47.6 million

Projected Luxury Tax Space
$11.0 million

Dead Cap (0)
Didi Louzada ($268,032)

Projected Signing Exceptions
Non-Taxpayer MLE ($14.1 million)
Bi-Annual Exception ($5.1 million)

Notable Trade Exceptions
Malcolm Brogdon ($6.8 million)

Notable Extension Candidates
Deandre Ayton (veteran extension)
Toumani Camara (veteran extension)
Rayan Rupert (veteran extension)
Shaedon Sharpe (rookie scale extension)
Anfernee Simons (veteran extension)
Matisse Thybulle (veteran extension – if player option is picked up)
Jabari Walker (veteran extension – through June 30)
Robert Williams III (veteran extension)

Potential Free Agents (6)
Dalano Banton (unrestricted)
Bryce McGowens (restricted – two-way)
Justin Minaya (restricted – two-way)
Rayan Rupert (restricted – team option)
Matisse Thybulle (unrestricted – player option)
Jabari Walker (restricted)

Analysis

The Portland Trail Blazers were a much-improved team in the second half of the season...Normally, we’d celebrate that kind of improvement. Especially since Portland did it on the backs of most of their younger players, which should bode well for the future...a sinking feeling that the extra wins may have cost the Trail Blazers draft position in draft with terrific talent in the top part of the lottery...There’s also a worry that the Blazers front office might deem this group closer than they really are. Portland already rewarded general manager Joe Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups with new contracts. Could moves to chase a postseason spot be next?

More worrisome for Trail Blazers fans, the team could see the second-half improvement as reason to lock into this roster more than they should. Let’s start there, as that is what this offseason is about in Portland.

The Blazers remain a somewhat muddled mix of young players and a handful of mid-career vets. And that’s before you factor in 11-year veteran Jerami Grant, who doesn’t fit either description.

A quick look at things says that Portland should be building around a core of Shaedon Sharpe (who had his best season in Year 3), Scoot Henderson (who was much-improved in Year 2), Toumani Camara (who looks like the kind of Swiss army knife that all good teams have) and Donovan Clingan (who flashed a ton of potential, especially as a rim protector). Around those four are a whole lot of question marks.

Avdija? Think he left him out by mistake?

GRANT

Grant remains a solid, versatile forward, even if this season was a complete mess shooting-wise. Grant spent too many possessions never getting inside the arc. He’s a solid three-point shooter, but half of his shot mix came from behind the arc. Grant isn’t that kind of sniper. That needs to balance back out moving forward. He’s also slipped defensively. Still fairly solid, but not someone who draws the opponent’s best wing anymore.

AYTON

Deandre Ayton is entering the final year of his contract at $35.5 million. He remains a tantalizing offensive prospect and a better-than-you-think rebounder. But Ayton is still wildly inconsistent. One night Ayton looks like he has it all together. The next night, you barely know he’s on the court.

SIMONS

Anfernee Simons is a good shooter and a solid secondary playmaker. He’s decidedly not a point guard though, which limits him a bit. And his defense keeps him from being mentioned as a top-tier starting shooting guard, despite his playmaking and scoring abilities.

THYBULLE

Matisse Thybulle returned late in the season. He showed enough that we’re comfortable saying that he’s a rotation guy again. The volume wasn’t much this year, but it was a third straight year of solid shooting with the Blazers. Defense remains Thybulle’s calling card.

WILLIAMS

Robert Williams continues to be incredibly exciting…when he plays. The issue of staying on the court carried over to this season for Williams, as he was only able to play 20 games.

AVDIJA

Avdija put together arguably his best all-around season. He did more scoring, especially off-the-dribble scoring, then we’ve seen before. Avdija also chipped in with the playmaking, hit the glass and was solid, if unspectacular, on defense.

Why did we call out that group of six players? They’re all under contract for next season with Portland for a combined $134.4 million. That group of six – all solid, but not great – are the reason why the Blazers are sitting just shy of the luxury tax for next season...Each player in that group out of Grant, Ayton, Simons, Thybulle, and Williams (we’re excluding Avdija because he could/should be part of the core now) has a tradable contract.

Ayton’s deal is probably the worst in terms of single-season size vs production, but it’s an expiring deal. Some team who needs a center may be willing to gamble on Ayton, especially if it means moving off some money themselves. Centers who are reliably double-double guys don’t grow on trees, and inconsistent as he is, Ayton provides that.

Simons is very tradable as a guard who can shoot and score. At worst, he’s a third-guard on a contender. And he’s probably more valuable than that to a lot of teams who really need offense.

Thybulle has value as a 3&D guy, and he’s also on a very tradable expiring contract. Williams is essentially the big man version of Thybulle, because he’s terrific around the rim on both ends and on a very affordable expiring deal.

Then we have Jerami Grant.

Grant’s deal isn’t nearly as toxic as some have suggested... He’s overpaid, but not shockingly so. The challenge is that another team might use last season’s dip for forecast what’s to come. If so, then the contract becomes an issue...

This summer is going to be marked by trades. Almost no teams have spending power and the free agent class is fairly weak. If the Trail Blazers decide to lengthen out their rebuild around the younger players, they could cash in by trading any of their vets. They’ve also got the contracts, and some future draft assets, to move if they decide to make some swaps to push things forward this coming season.

...extensions for Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara...most important piece of business for the Trail Blazers as far as things go long-term...Sharpe is due for a rookie scale deal, while Camara is extension-eligible, but less likely to ink a new deal.

Sharpe’s upward ascension should have him in the range of signing a four-year, $112 million extension. That reflects his value now, while leaving some room for continued growth. You could even see things pushing a bit higher, if that’s what it takes to get a deal done.


That is $28mil/year. I'd bet Cronin signs him for more than that, given his history

Camara is in a different spot. He’s eligible to sign what we call the Dinwiddie Extension, which allows a team to extend a player on a salary that starts at up to 140% of the Average Player Salary. For next season, that projects to work out to a four-year, $89.3 million contract.

That is $22mil/year, doubt he signs for that

He was one of the best defenders of forwards and bigger wings in the league last season, but toiled in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest. He shot it well. Showed that he can create his own shot, and improved as a playmaker for others...Camara could delay signing a new deal until the summer of 2026 instead. If that’s the case, expect Portland to decline their team option for 2026-27 to make Camara a restricted free agent. That way, the Blazers can control the process.

Of their free agents, there aren’t any monumental decision-point this summer for the Trail Blazers. The expectation is for Thybulle to opt in. Portland will probably pick up their team option for Rayan Rupert, because there’s still some untapped potential there.

That leaves Dalano Banton and Jabari Walker as the free agents of note. Banton has shown he’s an NBA-level guy and an elite garbage-time scorer. He could be back on a minimum deal to fill out the bench. Same with Walker, who has shown flashes at times, but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. Their places on the roster likely depend on what happens with trades for the veterans.

The Portland Trail Blazers will have a chance to land a rotation player at the draft, despite possibly picking lower than is ideal. They’ll be active in trade talks, because of all of the tradable veterans they have. How it all plays out makes the Blazers one of the most fascinating teams to watch this summer.

Yes Joe has overpaid in the past.. But....

When was the last bad contract Joe gave out? Was it Grant's a couple of years ago?

Plus, factor in the new CBA.

My guess is, many projections for future player contracts are too high. There is a salary reset coming, and it starts this offseason.

PS, good luck to the Blazers tonight, they are due a big dose of good luck.

[PDXKnight]

Sabonis is an excellent offensive player. His issues are on the other end. He needs other players around him to provide what centers provide; rim protection.

Wasn't aware he isnt a rim protector. That id a huge negative for a big and he likely doesn't have the range go be a modern 4 either..

Good point by zzaj on him being 29. That's pretty old for a team just getting started. And if he's one of your top 3 pieces that really makes the window small so you'd better have 2 established all stars or 1 super duper star (perrenial top 5 mvp candidate) if you break the bank for that sort of player.

I think my feelings on a sabonis deal hinders on asking price. A gobert or lillard trade for sabonis would be too much, maybe you sacrifice 1-2 firsts if you think the addition plus roster improvement makes those firsts negligible

Three things.

Sabonis is a facilitator on offense and highly efficient. He passes the ball well, shoots the 3 well, is a terrific post player and sets screens well both for pick 'n pop and pick 'n roll. He would immediately make a huge difference on the offensive end of the court. He would be able to play C or slide to PF alongside Clingan. Adding Sabonis would immediately make the offense better.

On defense, he is a terrific rebounder - one of the best in the league. More switchable than Ayton or Clingan by far. Does he go for blocks - not often. As a reminder, his surrounding cast in Sac on D isn't all that. "I think" that rolled up with Camara, Thybulle and Deni - D won't be the issue (but maybe I am wrong there).

The trade (if one were to occur) will hinge totally on what Sac wants to do. Do they want to let the current group play out and add some length? Do they want to start a quicker rebuild and move Sabonis? Will they be irrational on the number of draft assets they want for him?

For the Blazers, you don't want to have to commit $40+M for the next 3 seasons AND give up lots of draft assets - that would long-term suicide.

Do I think that Sabonis for Ayton gets them into the playoffs - yep.

I think 2 firsts + ayton is about the most id offer. Really wouldn't want to overpay for him and would much rather seek to add him as a veteran complimentary piece if he hits fa in a few years.

I'm not convinced of him at the 4, maybe I'm wrong but the modern 4 feels more like the mold of toumani than sabonis. So to me it's sort of a choice between DC and sabonis at the 5 if we are serious about competing in which case I think the rim protector is the way to go especially given the age advantage dc has. Of course dc given his injury concerns who knows maybe you just go for a super rotation at the 5 and find minutes to accommodate in case dc goes down. Ayton + 2 firsts is interesting to me not sure if it's close to them but if we think we are a playoff team anyway would be worth the risk of sacrificing picks in a small market from portlands perspective. But id suspect Sacramento would want DC or Scoot which id imagine is a deal breaker

[Walton1one]

Cronin has NOT made good contract signings for his own players and every single time he has overpaid compared to what the market would pay

Signing Grant to a 5yr\$160 deal (w\PO Y5) aside...which is a bad contract

He signed Nurkic to a 4yr/$70 deal, PHX loved him so much they dumped him WITH a pick (a 26' 1st round pick)

He signed Nassir Little to a 4yr/$28mil deal, not so bad you say? He is out of the league. PHX wanted him gone so badly that they stretched his contract for the next SIX years to be rid of him

He signed Simons to a 4yr\$100mil deal, Simons was 23 at the time, but clearly his contract is an overpay considering what comparable\better players have signed for since.

He signed Gary Payton III to a 3yr/$28mil deal and that same year traded him back to GS for (5) 2nd's. The signing hard capped POR at the time if I recall and Payton never really played much for POR, he played 15 games total, nice haul of picks back for him though I guess?

Trading both Nurkic & Little to get back Ayton (expiring after this year) and Camara, deserves some credit (as does dealing Payton for (5) 2nd's)

[Walton1one]

Read on Twitter

This is the kind of nonsensical trade that Marang thinks POR might consider?

Really? You think so? No way HOU even considers that, that is an insulting ask. Sheppard #3 pick LY, Smith #3 pick in 22' AND multiple 1st round picks? Delusional.

I'd put it right up there with Simons to ORL for Franz Wagner

If Cronin is of this line of thinking, then yeah Simons is going nowhere AND he will get an obscene new contract.

[tester551]

Read on Twitter

This is the kind of nonsensical trade that Marang thinks POR might consider?

Really? You think so? No way HOU even considers that, that is an insulting ask. Sheppard #3 pick LY, Smith #3 pick in 22' AND multiple 1st round picks? Delusional.

I'd put it right up there with Simons to ORL for Franz Wagner

If Cronin is of this line of thinking, then yeah Simons is going nowhere AND he will get an obscene new contract.

Just because someone has a platform, doesn't mean they know anything....

The trade is not even valid with the CBA. The trade would put Rockets into the 1st Apron (which is not feasible here).

Something like this might be viable: (but even then, this is tilted massively in Portland's favor)

Simons <=> Brooks + SHeppard

[Norm2953]

I'd like for Portland to be the third team in a Giannis trade.

The two swaps and Milwaukee pick in 2029 + perhaps 10 might bring back a significant player
if the team truly wishes to contend.

[Sinobas]

Read on Twitter

This is the kind of nonsensical trade that Marang thinks POR might consider?

Really? You think so? No way HOU even considers that, that is an insulting ask. Sheppard #3 pick LY, Smith #3 pick in 22' AND multiple 1st round picks? Delusional.

I'd put it right up there with Simons to ORL for Franz Wagner

If Cronin is of this line of thinking, then yeah Simons is going nowhere AND he will get an obscene new contract.

I don't like the trade for Portland. Sheppard was crap last year. His only claim to fame is being a good shooter and he was worse than rookie Scoot last year. I also don't see how Jabari Smith is an upgrade over Jabari Walker.

The 1st is bound to be a rather low one. I suppose it would be better than nothing, but Shepperd has 3 more years at 10+ mil. We could find better for the vet min.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I do not support trading for Sabonis... unless Flagg or Harper are incoming too. We'll find out soon. Those two are day-one stars IMO who change the whole trajectory of this team. You get one of them and you start finding winning pieces now. A Flagg/Deni/Camara trio provides so much defense that I think you can bookend them with nonfactors on defense at the starting one and five (especially with Clingan in reserve if you do go Sabonis). Or, with Harper you've got a centerpiece to a functional offense but still need to move for some strong finishers and secondary facilitators, and Sabonis fits that bill too.

[dckingsfan]

Wasn't aware he isnt a rim protector. That id a huge negative for a big and he likely doesn't have the range go be a modern 4 either..

Good point by zzaj on him being 29. That's pretty old for a team just getting started. And if he's one of your top 3 pieces that really makes the window small so you'd better have 2 established all stars or 1 super duper star (perrenial top 5 mvp candidate) if you break the bank for that sort of player.

I think my feelings on a sabonis deal hinders on asking price. A gobert or lillard trade for sabonis would be too much, maybe you sacrifice 1-2 firsts if you think the addition plus roster improvement makes those firsts negligible

Three things.

Sabonis is a facilitator on offense and highly efficient. He passes the ball well, shoots the 3 well, is a terrific post player and sets screens well both for pick 'n pop and pick 'n roll. He would immediately make a huge difference on the offensive end of the court. He would be able to play C or slide to PF alongside Clingan. Adding Sabonis would immediately make the offense better.

On defense, he is a terrific rebounder - one of the best in the league. More switchable than Ayton or Clingan by far. Does he go for blocks - not often. As a reminder, his surrounding cast in Sac on D isn't all that. "I think" that rolled up with Camara, Thybulle and Deni - D won't be the issue (but maybe I am wrong there).

The trade (if one were to occur) will hinge totally on what Sac wants to do. Do they want to let the current group play out and add some length? Do they want to start a quicker rebuild and move Sabonis? Will they be irrational on the number of draft assets they want for him?

For the Blazers, you don't want to have to commit $40+M for the next 3 seasons AND give up lots of draft assets - that would long-term suicide.

Do I think that Sabonis for Ayton gets them into the playoffs - yep.

I think 2 firsts + ayton is about the most id offer. Really wouldn't want to overpay for him and would much rather seek to add him as a veteran complimentary piece if he hits fa in a few years.

I'm not convinced of him at the 4, maybe I'm wrong but the modern 4 feels more like the mold of toumani than sabonis. So to me it's sort of a choice between DC and sabonis at the 5 if we are serious about competing in which case I think the rim protector is the way to go especially given the age advantage dc has. Of course dc given his injury concerns who knows maybe you just go for a super rotation at the 5 and find minutes to accommodate in case dc goes down. Ayton + 2 firsts is interesting to me not sure if it's close to them but if we think we are a playoff team anyway would be worth the risk of sacrificing picks in a small market from portlands perspective. But id suspect Sacramento would want DC or Scoot which id imagine is a deal breaker

If the two firsts are late FRPs, fine. Otherwise, smh. So agreed, if they want DC - nope. I think Scoot is replaceable (but others will argue that point - so there is that).

And Sabonis can play some C and some PF, I would HOPE they don't make a choice between Sabonis and Clingan.

But, I am guessing this is going nowhere but fun speculate.

[dckingsfan]

Read on Twitter

This is the kind of nonsensical trade that Marang thinks POR might consider?

Really? You think so? No way HOU even considers that, that is an insulting ask. Sheppard #3 pick LY, Smith #3 pick in 22' AND multiple 1st round picks? Delusional.

I'd put it right up there with Simons to ORL for Franz Wagner

If Cronin is of this line of thinking, then yeah Simons is going nowhere AND he will get an obscene new contract.

I don't like the trade for Portland. Sheppard was crap last year. His only claim to fame is being a good shooter and he was worse than rookie Scoot last year. I also don't see how Jabari Smith is an upgrade over Jabari Walker.

The 1st is bound to be a rather low one. I suppose it would be better than nothing, but Shepperd has 3 more years at 10+ mil. We could find better for the vet min.

I would do it in a heartbeat just for the picks and moving on from Simons...