2025 Offseason Season Thread Vol. 1

[carnageta]

Sarr???

It's the least Adam Silver can do after fking the wizards out of a top 4 pick

[carnageta]

"If Kendrick Nunn asks out of the Shanghai Sharks, it's expected that the Heat will be interested."

[3ammy3uck3ts]

"If Kendrick Nunn asks out of the Shanghai Sharks, it's expected that the Heat will be interested."

I actually think I saw someone suggest we bring in Nunn and Whiteside for depth and we’re being dead serious

[MettaWorldPanda]

That Jrue contract is awful. I wouldn’t touch it unless we’re getting compensated to.

Listening to Bill Simmons podcast, he seemed most open to the idea of trading Jrue and how they gave him that deal to take care of him and they were about to start the playoffs in the year they won it.

Im convinced ownership and management did it on purpose. They paid all these guys, won a ring, cemented themselves in Celtics history and then sold the team, knowing full well there would be massive tax implications and repeater stuff and Celtics would have this year window (which slammed shut) and now Celtics are in a much more difficult position. And it's not like the new group doesnt know this but they took the chance.

Anyway back to Jrue. Bill was saying how bad it is that they'll need to cut 20M to get under 2nd apron. And then Ryen Russillo was like. That contract is awful. There's no money or teams with cap. The team's with cap, won't want jrue. Which is what I've been saying also. And then Ryen was like, does boston have to give a pick to get a team to take him. And Bill was like, idk. Maybe.
I think the answer is yes, definitely.

Teams lack of cap space and fear of 2nd apron and repeater tax is really going to limit this off-season. Teams might be getting 50 cents on the dollar in trades and free agents will be very disappointed.

I also think both suns and Celtics would want duncan so they can terminate him, so there's no chance we get both somehow in some crazy big trade unless nets or someone else is involved.

This is a problem that nobody is talking about, and it will only get worse as time goes on. If I was team like the Nets for example I would make a killing absorbing everybody else's horrific contracts. Teams have miss appropriated money long term not considering this situation, and you will begin to see an adjustment in salaries paid out for guys like Herro, who I believe is much closer to the 30 million than he is to 50. What is the worst that can happen? Let him go to free agency, nobody can afford to give him anything anyways. You can always match back or go above the offer with Bird rights anyways.

Players no longer have any leverage the market does, and Butler did us a massive favor throwing the fit that he did, and maybe he was pretty smart for doing so because there is about zero chance he would have gotten close to that number on an extension here because he's not worth 50 mil maybe 25 in this new CBA.

The teams that begin to understand this and move accordingly will inevitably break this system, and also believe this won't last as the players union begins to realize that they just gutted the market for mid tier stars in this league, and killed everybody's negotiating leverage by allowing the owners to destroy the free agency market. It has been a long time since the teams have had this much control, and I think they are just now starting to understand that.

We will see a radical repositioning or some type of lockout here in the next decade.

Great post. Butler was extremely smart for what he did. Durant will be doing the same thing. Heat will throw the Suns the lifeline early so it don’t have to get ugly like it did with Butler.

[wade44]

Sarr???

That’s some BS. Ware should be first team period

[spectrec130]

That’s a load of **** lol he’s going wherever he wants if he leaves.

No he won't. Jon Horst will do exactly what Wes Eden wants him to do (see Portland Cronin and Allen or Dallas Harris and Adelson) and seeing that Milwaukee is bereft of any draft capital and is cap constrained for the next 2 years, they will need a marquee pick or player to sell tickets.

That's the key. With Dame being done and no Giannis, that is a bottom 5 team which doesn't don't own their picks. They just can't afford to give him out no matter how much they like Giannis and want to reward him. They need legit players and assets to stay afloat till they get control of their picks back. Whatever they get back will be significant and that rules Miami out.

Amen!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Pat Riley’s found his whale and is sharpening his harpoon as we speak. Stay tuned.

[MartyConlonJr]

Westbrook on Miami just instantly brings up that Arrested Developemt meme in my head "...but it might work for us".

Got to admit the good that he does bring in energy, fire and playmaking are the things we need but I think it is just too regrettable.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Do what you gotta do Patrick.

[Wiltside]

Read on Twitter

Always had love for Kawhi. One of my favourite non-Heat players. But that ship has sailed. He isn't leaving SoCal.

[Vertical Limit]

No to Kawhi
No to Westbrook
No to Jrue Holiday
No to Paul George
Ok with Porzingis if hes an expiring and we send them back longer term contracts
Ok with KD but at small expense, not giving up more than one first rounder
Yes to Giannis at any expense


Ill do just about any trade to get giannis and kd here this offseason and hopefully keep Bam too

[DBurks2818]

Sarr over Ware is ridiculous.

Man, the media is so terrible; I bet almost none of them looked past his counting stats and didn’t examine his minutes, splits (identical pre and post-all star unlike Ware who improved in more minutes), etc. either.

[twix2500]

Watch on YouTube

[VaDe255]

Can Tyler Herro Make the Brunson Leap?


Broad comparison accross key stats


Herro vs. Brunson: What the Numbers Say

At first glance, the comparison looks promising. In the 2024-25 season, both Herro and Brunson posted a TS% of 60.5%, and Herro even attempted more total field goals, since he played more games. He also scored more efficiently than Brunson at the rim (62% vs. 61%) and in the midrange (53% vs. 51%). Scoring efficiency and volume is not the issue.

Brunson separates himself in the playmaking department. He posted a 32.1% assist rate to Herro's 26.2%, and his assist to turnover ratio was 2.92 compared to Herro's 2.12. Brunson also drew more fouls (6.9 FTs per game to Herro's 4.2) a sign of advanced foul baiting craft and physical control.

Perhaps most telling: Only 46.1% of Brunson's 3s were assisted, while 75.3% of Herro's were. Brunson generates more of his offense off the dribble, a key trait for playoff caliber lead guards

What Herro Has Going for Him

Herro brings more to the table than he often gets credit for. His efficiency as a scorer is elite and he’s developed into a highly skilled shotmaker across all three levels.

A common knock on Herro is his wingspan, at just over 6'3.25", it’s shorter than his 6'5" frame. But that critique is often overstated, especially when compared to someone like Brunson, who is both shorter in height and has a smaller wingspan, yet has thrived as a primary offensive option.
In reality, wingspan has little impact on offensive effectiveness. It’s something players learn to work around through craft, angles, and quick release mechanics all of which Herro excels at. Where it does show up more meaningfully is on defense, where longer arms help in contests and deflections.

Even then, Herro has shown more defensive viability than Brunson. His defensive LEBRON/EPM consistently are higher than Brunson’s. Suggesting he can at least hold his own on that end while continuing to expand his offensive role.

The Critical Development Areas

Herro made meaningful strides in the second half of the 25 season, particularly in his ability to handle increased on ball responsibility. Herro stepped into a larger playmaking role once Butler was removed.
That said, the leap from secondary scorer to primary offensive engine requires more than flashes, it demands consistency in three key areas:

Playmaking IQ: Herro has shown real progress as a passer, particularly in PnR actions where he can reliably hit pocket passes, find corner shooters, or kick out after drawing multiple defenders. He’s now seeing top coverages: blitzes, traps, and face guarding from elite defenders, something he rarely faced when playing off of Jimmy.

Against that backdrop, his growth is more impressive than it looks on paper. He’s improved at maintaining his dribble under pressure, manipulating ball screens and making quick reads when the first line of defense is compromised. Still, there's room to grow: Herro can sometimes lock into predetermined reads or struggle with second level help, areas where elite initiators thrive.

The difference now isn't his ability to make passes, but how consistently he can generate advantages under focused defensive pressure. To solidify himself as a true lead playmaker, he’ll need to continue refining his live dribble decision making and elevate from a reactive passer to one who dictates how defenses respond.

Foul Drawing and Physicality: Herro’s FT rate remains modest for a player with his usage. While it has improved significantly compared to last season, continued growth in this area will be key to maintaining efficiency and expand his role. The rim pressure is already there, his frequency of drives is in line with what you'd expect from elite guards. The next step is being more decisive and purposeful in how he attacks defenses. That means driving not just to score, but to create contact, collapse help, and generate better outcomes, whether that’s drawing fouls or creating openings for teammates. Greater intent on these drives will not only improve his efficiency but also help him conserve energy by reducing the number of empty, low-impact possessions.

Late-Game Execution: Despite ranking top 10 in the league in minutes played, Herro has not consistently maintained his efficiency or decision making in late game situations. His conditioning isn’t in question, it’s his energy management within games. Improving shot selection and composure in the fourth quarter will be critical if he's to anchor Miami’s offense in high leverage moments.


Herro’s current profile suggests he’s hovering near the edge of that next tier: close enough to see the path, but not firmly on it. To complete the leap from efficient combo guard to reliable primary initiator, he still needs meaningful improvement in decision making, physicality, and late game control.

It’s a high bar and objectively, most players with a similar skill set don’t reach it. But the gaps aren’t unbridgeable. Herro has shown steady progress and now with the opportunity clearly in front of him, he is set up for another leap.

Miami’s Offensive Ceiling Hinges on Herro

Herro has the skill set, sufficient physical tools and most importantly the opportunity. The real question is whether he has the decision making, physicality and late-game execution to truly take over as the engine of a playoff caliber offense in the post Butler era.

Even with KD on the roster, the primary creation and playmaking responsibilities will fall to Herro. Like it or not, Miami is building its offensive identity around him. His ability or inability to make that leap will define the Heat’s ceiling for the next several seasons.

[carnageta]

Can Tyler Herro Make the Brunson Leap?


Broad comparison accross key stats


Herro vs. Brunson: What the Numbers Say

At first glance, the comparison looks promising. In the 2024-25 season, both Herro and Brunson posted a TS% of 60.5%, and Herro even attempted more total field goals, since he played more games. He also scored more efficiently than Brunson at the rim (62% vs. 61%) and in the midrange (53% vs. 51%). Scoring efficiency and volume is not the issue.

Brunson separates himself in the playmaking department. He posted a 32.1% assist rate to Herro's 26.2%, and his assist to turnover ratio was 2.92 compared to Herro's 2.12. Brunson also drew more fouls (6.9 FTs per game to Herro's 4.2) a sign of advanced foul baiting craft and physical control.

Perhaps most telling: Only 46.1% of Brunson's 3s were assisted, while 75.3% of Herro's were. Brunson generates more of his offense off the dribble, a key trait for playoff caliber lead guards

What Herro Has Going for Him

Herro brings more to the table than he often gets credit for. His efficiency as a scorer is elite and he’s developed into a highly skilled shotmaker across all three levels.

A common knock on Herro is his wingspan, at just over 6'3.25", it’s shorter than his 6'5" frame. But that critique is often overstated, especially when compared to someone like Brunson, who is both shorter in height and has a smaller wingspan, yet has thrived as a primary offensive option.
In reality, wingspan has little impact on offensive effectiveness. It’s something players learn to work around through craft, angles, and quick release mechanics all of which Herro excels at. Where it does show up more meaningfully is on defense, where longer arms help in contests and deflections.

Even then, Herro has shown more defensive viability than Brunson. His defensive LEBRON/EPM consistently are higher than Brunson’s. Suggesting he can at least hold his own on that end while continuing to expand his offensive role.

The Critical Development Areas

Herro made meaningful strides in the second half of the 25 season, particularly in his ability to handle increased on ball responsibility. Herro stepped into a larger playmaking role once Butler was removed.
That said, the leap from secondary scorer to primary offensive engine requires more than flashes, it demands consistency in three key areas:

Playmaking IQ: Herro has shown real progress as a passer, particularly in PnR actions where he can reliably hit pocket passes, find corner shooters, or kick out after drawing multiple defenders. He’s now seeing top coverages: blitzes, traps, and face guarding from elite defenders, something he rarely faced when playing off of Jimmy.

Against that backdrop, his growth is more impressive than it looks on paper. He’s improved at maintaining his dribble under pressure, manipulating ball screens and making quick reads when the first line of defense is compromised. Still, there's room to grow: Herro can sometimes lock into predetermined reads or struggle with second level help, areas where elite initiators thrive.

The difference now isn't his ability to make passes, but how consistently he can generate advantages under focused defensive pressure. To solidify himself as a true lead playmaker, he’ll need to continue refining his live dribble decision making and elevate from a reactive passer to one who dictates how defenses respond.

Foul Drawing and Physicality: Herro’s FT rate remains modest for a player with his usage. While it has improved significantly compared to last season, continued growth in this area will be key to maintaining efficiency and expand his role. The rim pressure is already there, his frequency of drives is in line with what you'd expect from elite guards. The next step is being more decisive and purposeful in how he attacks defenses. That means driving not just to score, but to create contact, collapse help, and generate better outcomes, whether that’s drawing fouls or creating openings for teammates. Greater intent on these drives will not only improve his efficiency but also help him conserve energy by reducing the number of empty, low-impact possessions.

Late-Game Execution: Despite ranking top 10 in the league in minutes played, Herro has not consistently maintained his efficiency or decision making in late game situations. His conditioning isn’t in question, it’s his energy management within games. Improving shot selection and composure in the fourth quarter will be critical if he's to anchor Miami’s offense in high leverage moments.


Herro’s current profile suggests he’s hovering near the edge of that next tier: close enough to see the path, but not firmly on it. To complete the leap from efficient combo guard to reliable primary initiator, he still needs meaningful improvement in decision making, physicality, and late game control.

It’s a high bar and objectively, most players with a similar skill set don’t reach it. But the gaps aren’t unbridgeable. Herro has shown steady progress and now with the opportunity clearly in front of him, he is set up for another leap.

Miami’s Offensive Ceiling Hinges on Herro

Herro has the skill set, sufficient physical tools and most importantly the opportunity. The real question is whether he has the decision making, physicality and late-game execution to truly take over as the engine of a playoff caliber offense in the post Butler era.

Even with KD on the roster, the primary creation and playmaking responsibilities will fall to Herro. Like it or not, Miami is building its offensive identity around him. His ability or inability to make that leap will define the Heat’s ceiling for the next several seasons.

Great breakdown. I totally agree.


I also think that wingspan is a bit of an overrated metric and is quite flawed as it takes into account chest and shoulder width - which are not overly important for shooting over someone. Tyler Herro's arm length is actually impressive, it's just that he has got narrow shoulders - which is what hurts his overall wingspan.

Had Herro had a 'normal' build in terms of chest / shoulder wideness, his wingspan would be 6'7, 6'8". His arms aren't the problem.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Can Tyler Herro Make the Brunson Leap?


Broad comparison accross key stats


Herro vs. Brunson: What the Numbers Say

At first glance, the comparison looks promising. In the 2024-25 season, both Herro and Brunson posted a TS% of 60.5%, and Herro even attempted more total field goals, since he played more games. He also scored more efficiently than Brunson at the rim (62% vs. 61%) and in the midrange (53% vs. 51%). Scoring efficiency and volume is not the issue.

Brunson separates himself in the playmaking department. He posted a 32.1% assist rate to Herro's 26.2%, and his assist to turnover ratio was 2.92 compared to Herro's 2.12. Brunson also drew more fouls (6.9 FTs per game to Herro's 4.2) a sign of advanced foul baiting craft and physical control.

Perhaps most telling: Only 46.1% of Brunson's 3s were assisted, while 75.3% of Herro's were. Brunson generates more of his offense off the dribble, a key trait for playoff caliber lead guards

What Herro Has Going for Him

Herro brings more to the table than he often gets credit for. His efficiency as a scorer is elite and he’s developed into a highly skilled shotmaker across all three levels.

A common knock on Herro is his wingspan, at just over 6'3.25", it’s shorter than his 6'5" frame. But that critique is often overstated, especially when compared to someone like Brunson, who is both shorter in height and has a smaller wingspan, yet has thrived as a primary offensive option.
In reality, wingspan has little impact on offensive effectiveness. It’s something players learn to work around through craft, angles, and quick release mechanics all of which Herro excels at. Where it does show up more meaningfully is on defense, where longer arms help in contests and deflections.

Even then, Herro has shown more defensive viability than Brunson. His defensive LEBRON/EPM consistently are higher than Brunson’s. Suggesting he can at least hold his own on that end while continuing to expand his offensive role.

The Critical Development Areas

Herro made meaningful strides in the second half of the 25 season, particularly in his ability to handle increased on ball responsibility. Herro stepped into a larger playmaking role once Butler was removed.
That said, the leap from secondary scorer to primary offensive engine requires more than flashes, it demands consistency in three key areas:

Playmaking IQ: Herro has shown real progress as a passer, particularly in PnR actions where he can reliably hit pocket passes, find corner shooters, or kick out after drawing multiple defenders. He’s now seeing top coverages: blitzes, traps, and face guarding from elite defenders, something he rarely faced when playing off of Jimmy.

Against that backdrop, his growth is more impressive than it looks on paper. He’s improved at maintaining his dribble under pressure, manipulating ball screens and making quick reads when the first line of defense is compromised. Still, there's room to grow: Herro can sometimes lock into predetermined reads or struggle with second level help, areas where elite initiators thrive.

The difference now isn't his ability to make passes, but how consistently he can generate advantages under focused defensive pressure. To solidify himself as a true lead playmaker, he’ll need to continue refining his live dribble decision making and elevate from a reactive passer to one who dictates how defenses respond.

Foul Drawing and Physicality: Herro’s FT rate remains modest for a player with his usage. While it has improved significantly compared to last season, continued growth in this area will be key to maintaining efficiency and expand his role. The rim pressure is already there, his frequency of drives is in line with what you'd expect from elite guards. The next step is being more decisive and purposeful in how he attacks defenses. That means driving not just to score, but to create contact, collapse help, and generate better outcomes, whether that’s drawing fouls or creating openings for teammates. Greater intent on these drives will not only improve his efficiency but also help him conserve energy by reducing the number of empty, low-impact possessions.

Late-Game Execution: Despite ranking top 10 in the league in minutes played, Herro has not consistently maintained his efficiency or decision making in late game situations. His conditioning isn’t in question, it’s his energy management within games. Improving shot selection and composure in the fourth quarter will be critical if he's to anchor Miami’s offense in high leverage moments.


Herro’s current profile suggests he’s hovering near the edge of that next tier: close enough to see the path, but not firmly on it. To complete the leap from efficient combo guard to reliable primary initiator, he still needs meaningful improvement in decision making, physicality, and late game control.

It’s a high bar and objectively, most players with a similar skill set don’t reach it. But the gaps aren’t unbridgeable. Herro has shown steady progress and now with the opportunity clearly in front of him, he is set up for another leap.

Miami’s Offensive Ceiling Hinges on Herro

Herro has the skill set, sufficient physical tools and most importantly the opportunity. The real question is whether he has the decision making, physicality and late-game execution to truly take over as the engine of a playoff caliber offense in the post Butler era.

Even with KD on the roster, the primary creation and playmaking responsibilities will fall to Herro. Like it or not, Miami is building its offensive identity around him. His ability or inability to make that leap will define the Heat’s ceiling for the next several seasons.

Good thought out post and great effort put into it but I highly doubt it, none of it matters if he just continues to disappear every postseason too.

[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

Can Tyler Herro Make the Brunson Leap?


Broad comparison accross key stats


Herro vs. Brunson: What the Numbers Say

At first glance, the comparison looks promising. In the 2024-25 season, both Herro and Brunson posted a TS% of 60.5%, and Herro even attempted more total field goals, since he played more games. He also scored more efficiently than Brunson at the rim (62% vs. 61%) and in the midrange (53% vs. 51%). Scoring efficiency and volume is not the issue.

Brunson separates himself in the playmaking department. He posted a 32.1% assist rate to Herro's 26.2%, and his assist to turnover ratio was 2.92 compared to Herro's 2.12. Brunson also drew more fouls (6.9 FTs per game to Herro's 4.2) a sign of advanced foul baiting craft and physical control.

Perhaps most telling: Only 46.1% of Brunson's 3s were assisted, while 75.3% of Herro's were. Brunson generates more of his offense off the dribble, a key trait for playoff caliber lead guards

What Herro Has Going for Him

Herro brings more to the table than he often gets credit for. His efficiency as a scorer is elite and he’s developed into a highly skilled shotmaker across all three levels.

A common knock on Herro is his wingspan, at just over 6'3.25", it’s shorter than his 6'5" frame. But that critique is often overstated, especially when compared to someone like Brunson, who is both shorter in height and has a smaller wingspan, yet has thrived as a primary offensive option.
In reality, wingspan has little impact on offensive effectiveness. It’s something players learn to work around through craft, angles, and quick release mechanics all of which Herro excels at. Where it does show up more meaningfully is on defense, where longer arms help in contests and deflections.

Even then, Herro has shown more defensive viability than Brunson. His defensive LEBRON/EPM consistently are higher than Brunson’s. Suggesting he can at least hold his own on that end while continuing to expand his offensive role.

The Critical Development Areas

Herro made meaningful strides in the second half of the 25 season, particularly in his ability to handle increased on ball responsibility. Herro stepped into a larger playmaking role once Butler was removed.
That said, the leap from secondary scorer to primary offensive engine requires more than flashes, it demands consistency in three key areas:

Playmaking IQ: Herro has shown real progress as a passer, particularly in PnR actions where he can reliably hit pocket passes, find corner shooters, or kick out after drawing multiple defenders. He’s now seeing top coverages: blitzes, traps, and face guarding from elite defenders, something he rarely faced when playing off of Jimmy.

Against that backdrop, his growth is more impressive than it looks on paper. He’s improved at maintaining his dribble under pressure, manipulating ball screens and making quick reads when the first line of defense is compromised. Still, there's room to grow: Herro can sometimes lock into predetermined reads or struggle with second level help, areas where elite initiators thrive.

The difference now isn't his ability to make passes, but how consistently he can generate advantages under focused defensive pressure. To solidify himself as a true lead playmaker, he’ll need to continue refining his live dribble decision making and elevate from a reactive passer to one who dictates how defenses respond.

Foul Drawing and Physicality: Herro’s FT rate remains modest for a player with his usage. While it has improved significantly compared to last season, continued growth in this area will be key to maintaining efficiency and expand his role. The rim pressure is already there, his frequency of drives is in line with what you'd expect from elite guards. The next step is being more decisive and purposeful in how he attacks defenses. That means driving not just to score, but to create contact, collapse help, and generate better outcomes, whether that’s drawing fouls or creating openings for teammates. Greater intent on these drives will not only improve his efficiency but also help him conserve energy by reducing the number of empty, low-impact possessions.

Late-Game Execution: Despite ranking top 10 in the league in minutes played, Herro has not consistently maintained his efficiency or decision making in late game situations. His conditioning isn’t in question, it’s his energy management within games. Improving shot selection and composure in the fourth quarter will be critical if he's to anchor Miami’s offense in high leverage moments.


Herro’s current profile suggests he’s hovering near the edge of that next tier: close enough to see the path, but not firmly on it. To complete the leap from efficient combo guard to reliable primary initiator, he still needs meaningful improvement in decision making, physicality, and late game control.

It’s a high bar and objectively, most players with a similar skill set don’t reach it. But the gaps aren’t unbridgeable. Herro has shown steady progress and now with the opportunity clearly in front of him, he is set up for another leap.

Miami’s Offensive Ceiling Hinges on Herro

Herro has the skill set, sufficient physical tools and most importantly the opportunity. The real question is whether he has the decision making, physicality and late-game execution to truly take over as the engine of a playoff caliber offense in the post Butler era.

Even with KD on the roster, the primary creation and playmaking responsibilities will fall to Herro. Like it or not, Miami is building its offensive identity around him. His ability or inability to make that leap will define the Heat’s ceiling for the next several seasons.

Good thought out post and great effort put into it but I highly doubt it, none of it matters if he just continues to disappear every postseason too.

Totally get where you're coming from. Unfortunately, this is what the FO has left us with and based on Pat’s presser, it seems like they’re heavily banking on Herro. We’ll see what happens this offseason, but as of now, Herro is clearly set up for another high usage year.

Personally, I’d give him about a 25% chance to make a real leap, something that changes his tier. And maybe a 50% chance he makes a moderate one, keeps improving, tightens up a few areas, but still lands as a high end secondary guy rather than a true lead.

[BadMofoPimp]

"If Kendrick Nunn asks out of the Shanghai Sharks, it's expected that the Heat will be interested."

I actually think I saw someone suggest we bring in Nunn and Whiteside for depth and we’re being dead serious

Would Nunn on a minimum deal be a bad thing?

[TroubleS0me]

Watch on YouTube

[RexBoyWonder]

Spoiler:

Can Tyler Herro Make the Brunson Leap?


Broad comparison accross key stats


Herro vs. Brunson: What the Numbers Say

At first glance, the comparison looks promising. In the 2024-25 season, both Herro and Brunson posted a TS% of 60.5%, and Herro even attempted more total field goals, since he played more games. He also scored more efficiently than Brunson at the rim (62% vs. 61%) and in the midrange (53% vs. 51%). Scoring efficiency and volume is not the issue.

Brunson separates himself in the playmaking department. He posted a 32.1% assist rate to Herro's 26.2%, and his assist to turnover ratio was 2.92 compared to Herro's 2.12. Brunson also drew more fouls (6.9 FTs per game to Herro's 4.2) a sign of advanced foul baiting craft and physical control.

Perhaps most telling: Only 46.1% of Brunson's 3s were assisted, while 75.3% of Herro's were. Brunson generates more of his offense off the dribble, a key trait for playoff caliber lead guards

What Herro Has Going for Him

Herro brings more to the table than he often gets credit for. His efficiency as a scorer is elite and he’s developed into a highly skilled shotmaker across all three levels.

A common knock on Herro is his wingspan, at just over 6'3.25", it’s shorter than his 6'5" frame. But that critique is often overstated, especially when compared to someone like Brunson, who is both shorter in height and has a smaller wingspan, yet has thrived as a primary offensive option.
In reality, wingspan has little impact on offensive effectiveness. It’s something players learn to work around through craft, angles, and quick release mechanics all of which Herro excels at. Where it does show up more meaningfully is on defense, where longer arms help in contests and deflections.

Even then, Herro has shown more defensive viability than Brunson. His defensive LEBRON/EPM consistently are higher than Brunson’s. Suggesting he can at least hold his own on that end while continuing to expand his offensive role.

The Critical Development Areas

Herro made meaningful strides in the second half of the 25 season, particularly in his ability to handle increased on ball responsibility. Herro stepped into a larger playmaking role once Butler was removed.
That said, the leap from secondary scorer to primary offensive engine requires more than flashes, it demands consistency in three key areas:

Playmaking IQ: Herro has shown real progress as a passer, particularly in PnR actions where he can reliably hit pocket passes, find corner shooters, or kick out after drawing multiple defenders. He’s now seeing top coverages: blitzes, traps, and face guarding from elite defenders, something he rarely faced when playing off of Jimmy.

Against that backdrop, his growth is more impressive than it looks on paper. He’s improved at maintaining his dribble under pressure, manipulating ball screens and making quick reads when the first line of defense is compromised. Still, there's room to grow: Herro can sometimes lock into predetermined reads or struggle with second level help, areas where elite initiators thrive.

The difference now isn't his ability to make passes, but how consistently he can generate advantages under focused defensive pressure. To solidify himself as a true lead playmaker, he’ll need to continue refining his live dribble decision making and elevate from a reactive passer to one who dictates how defenses respond.

Foul Drawing and Physicality: Herro’s FT rate remains modest for a player with his usage. While it has improved significantly compared to last season, continued growth in this area will be key to maintaining efficiency and expand his role. The rim pressure is already there, his frequency of drives is in line with what you'd expect from elite guards. The next step is being more decisive and purposeful in how he attacks defenses. That means driving not just to score, but to create contact, collapse help, and generate better outcomes, whether that’s drawing fouls or creating openings for teammates. Greater intent on these drives will not only improve his efficiency but also help him conserve energy by reducing the number of empty, low-impact possessions.

Late-Game Execution: Despite ranking top 10 in the league in minutes played, Herro has not consistently maintained his efficiency or decision making in late game situations. His conditioning isn’t in question, it’s his energy management within games. Improving shot selection and composure in the fourth quarter will be critical if he's to anchor Miami’s offense in high leverage moments.


Herro’s current profile suggests he’s hovering near the edge of that next tier: close enough to see the path, but not firmly on it. To complete the leap from efficient combo guard to reliable primary initiator, he still needs meaningful improvement in decision making, physicality, and late game control.

It’s a high bar and objectively, most players with a similar skill set don’t reach it. But the gaps aren’t unbridgeable. Herro has shown steady progress and now with the opportunity clearly in front of him, he is set up for another leap.

Miami’s Offensive Ceiling Hinges on Herro

Herro has the skill set, sufficient physical tools and most importantly the opportunity. The real question is whether he has the decision making, physicality and late-game execution to truly take over as the engine of a playoff caliber offense in the post Butler era.

Even with KD on the roster, the primary creation and playmaking responsibilities will fall to Herro. Like it or not, Miami is building its offensive identity around him. His ability or inability to make that leap will define the Heat’s ceiling for the next several seasons.

Awesome intelligent post.


Going by my eye test after watching/analyzing BB for a long ass time - Herro is now squeezing 98% of his natural tools/talent level.

I really think it's unfair and unrealistic to expect another major leap at this point. I just hope he can sustain his last regular season.

He never had elite vision/BB IQ. He improved his shot selection and passing, but he's not a natural floor general like the Halliburton's of the world. He's weaker and slower then pretty much every other lead guard in the league. He can't change that.

I give him a lot of credit for reaching the level he already have despite his weaknesses. But the real answer to out offense is NOT trying to squeeze an extra 2% production from Herro, the real answer is to move him to be the second option behind a guy that is more suited to be the main creator. Herro can still be a great scorer, but asking him to also be the main engine of your offense is a recipe for disappointment.

That's why we should try to keep him, but not max him. He's a very good offensive player with legit limitations and thus should make 30Mil and not 50 Mil per.