2025 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: #3 New York Knicks vs #4 Indiana Pacers (IND leads 2-0)

[ArksNetsSince99]

What do the analytics nerds who don't believe in "hot hands" have to say about Nesmith's hot hand last night? I don't see the argument as much anymore. I think most people have probably realized at this point that it's a real effect (but I've definitely gotten into the argument with posters on here before, and on the baseball sub-forums).

So the question is whether hitting 6 straight threes in a high pressure environment is a hot hand or just statistical variance? Here's my detailed analysis:

Spoiler:

Statistical chance to beat 0-970 record is way way slimmer than hitting 6 threes in a row

[Capn'O]

What do the analytics nerds who don't believe in "hot hands" have to say about Nesmith's hot hand last night? I don't see the argument as much anymore. I think most people have probably realized at this point that it's a real effect (but I've definitely gotten into the argument with posters on here before, and on the baseball sub-forums).

So the question is whether hitting 6 straight threes in a high pressure environment is a hot hand or just statistical variance? Here's my detailed analysis:

Spoiler:

Statistical chance to beat 0-970 record is way way slimmer than hitting 6 threes in a row

And that's still higher odds than me giving a ****.

[knicksfan974]

The ending in G1 was something we probably will not witness ever again, so I'll just take the loss and move on. Nothing to worry about G2, as long as the Knicks come with the same intensity and effort they showed the first 45 minutes of G1, and bring it for the full 48 minutes. Nothing more is needed, the Knicks are the better team and will prevail if they put in the work.

[California Gold]

Pacers favored to win the series now. I like their chances even if it gets to a game 7. Just like last season they have New York's number.

[cgf]

The ending in G1 was something we probably will not witness ever again, so I'll just take the loss and move on. Nothing to worry about G2, as long as the Knicks come with the same intensity and effort they showed the first 45 minutes of G1, and bring it for the full 48 minutes. Nothing more is needed, the Knicks are the better team and will prevail if they put in the work.

Maintaining that level for 48 minutes requires changes to the 45 minutes that preluded our running out of gas.

[cgf]

Pacers favored to win the series now. I like their chances even if it gets to a game 7. Just like last season they have New York's number.

Just like last year? Is half our rotation gunna get injured in game two?

[bledredwine]

So the question is whether hitting 6 straight threes in a high pressure environment is a hot hand or just statistical variance? Here's my detailed analysis:

Spoiler:

Statistical chance to beat 0-970 record is way way slimmer than hitting 6 threes in a row

And that's still higher odds than me giving a ****.

I also think that using MJ isn’t the best example since he was pissed at people stating Clyde was better at hitting threes. His career finals three point percentage is actually high despite what fans think.

Over 100 3’s at a clip of not far from 40% (37? something like that)
It’s not just luck- both examples were during important tone-setting games, so it has to do with skills, focus and flowstate.

[LFGK]

It was rainy today in New York , Hudson overflowed again (lots of Knicks tears ) in the city

People are pessimistic , looks like the org and fan base already gave up

I’ve seen few Haliburton Pacers jerseys on 33rd/6th ave

Nah bro you need to go get checked out forsure, go talk to someone, the Knick obsession isn't normal, guy hates the Knicks more then he likes the nets

I give you the props for showing up , you join CapnO and CGF in hall of fame

Unlike the other Rhodeys of the world who’s working hard to get me banned

Edit , if I’m not here always remember what I told you, PACERS IN 5

my brother in christ, the pacers needed a MIRACLE, 6/6 from 3 a ridiculous shot from haliburton in which he double dribbled, a blown call on a clear goaltend and a foul reversal on OG to win this game. Good luck with your prediction.

[kaansunman]

The ending in G1 was something we probably will not witness ever again, so I'll just take the loss and move on. Nothing to worry about G2, as long as the Knicks come with the same intensity and effort they showed the first 45 minutes of G1, and bring it for the full 48 minutes. Nothing more is needed, the Knicks are the better team and will prevail if they put in the work.

Maintaining that level for 48 minutes requires changes to the 45 minutes that preluded our running out of gas.

I would try one man pressure on the inbound after made baskets to delay Pacers' offense a bit.
I am %100 sure that Thibs won't try but To prevent chasing Pacer players all around 2-1-2 / 1-2-2 matchup zone could work for 5-10 mins.

Just like game 1, keep crushing the off rebs, feed inside try to draw more fauls and control the tempo.

Pacers is a very dangerous game everybody says that it's just the last three minutes but we forgot how did they start the game with 9/9 FGM in the first 6 minutes.

Knicks are playing better when they are down it's a habit now. Even Hart and Brunson admit that in their podcast that they motivate better when people doubt them. I trust them, they are mentally tough, let's even the series at the Garden first.

[FlatearthZorro]

Pacers favored to win the series now. I like their chances even if it gets to a game 7. Just like last season they have New York's number.

Just like last year? Is half our rotation gunna get injured in game two?

Does that even matter at this point. Injuries are part of sports... We had 3 of our top 5 in the series hurt against New York...

[The4thHorseman]

Pacers favored to win the series now. I like their chances even if it gets to a game 7. Just like last season they have New York's number.

Just like last year? Is half our rotation gunna get injured in game two?

Does that even matter at this point. Injuries are part of sports... We had 3 of our top 5 in the series hurt against New York...

Which 3 players didn’t play?

[cgf]

Pacers favored to win the series now. I like their chances even if it gets to a game 7. Just like last season they have New York's number.

Just like last year? Is half our rotation gunna get injured in game two?

Does that even matter at this point. Injuries are part of sports... We had 3 of our top 5 in the series hurt against New York...

If you're going to use last season's series to predict how this series will go, how could it not? They beat us fair and square last year, but as we saw last round, details matter. You killed us without Robinson and with Thibs running very traditional schemes. Once we got our top 7 healthy, Thibs let our wings lose, and KP got sick again, everything changed and we were the team in control.

They "had our number last year" after Anunoby joined Randle & Robinson on the injured list. So if you're using that to prognosticate the future, you must be assuming that Towns, Robinson, and Anunoby will get hurt before the end of game 3...with Hart and Brunson joining them by the end of the series. Nevermind that both teams are a lot better than they were when they met last year, so taking too much from that series would be silly.

Siakam is much better integrated this year, Nesmith has been on fire all season, Haliburton has turned into a killer, and that group as a whole has learned how to handle late game scenarios a lot better than when they pissed themselves against you last year. We've got our All-NBA bigman healthy this time around, we have our elite defensive anchor healthy, we replaced DDV's 3ball with Mikal's defense & midrange game, Thibs has continued to learn & improve, and this team is even more resilient after the Pistons series forced them too toughen up.

[cgf]

Just like last year? Is half our rotation gunna get injured in game two?

Does that even matter at this point. Injuries are part of sports... We had 3 of our top 5 in the series hurt against New York...

Which 3 players didn’t play?

KP, Tatum, and Jrue I guess? Jaylen was reportedly injured but with the way he looked in those last two games, he didn't seem any more banged up than Brunson or Towns, but Jrue was really struggling to keep up with Brunson. Which could just be age, dude is 50, or it could be the hammy that bothered him against Orlando.

Granted the series was already lost when Tatum went down, so KP & Jrue are really the only injuries that affected that series. But boston fans have to cling to something to avoid admitting how badly they under-rated what the Knicks were capable of.

[cgf]

The ending in G1 was something we probably will not witness ever again, so I'll just take the loss and move on. Nothing to worry about G2, as long as the Knicks come with the same intensity and effort they showed the first 45 minutes of G1, and bring it for the full 48 minutes. Nothing more is needed, the Knicks are the better team and will prevail if they put in the work.

Maintaining that level for 48 minutes requires changes to the 45 minutes that preluded our running out of gas.

I would try one man pressure on the inbound after made baskets to delay Pacers' offense a bit.
I am %100 sure that Thibs won't try but To prevent chasing Pacer players all around 2-1-2 / 1-2-2 matchup zone could work for 5-10 mins.

Just like game 1, keep crushing the off rebs, feed inside try to draw more fauls and control the tempo.

Pacers is a very dangerous game everybody says that it's just the last three minutes but we forgot how did they start the game with 9/9 FGM in the first 6 minutes.

Knicks are playing better when they are down it's a habit now. Even Hart and Brunson admit that in their podcast that they motivate better when people doubt them. I trust them, they are mentally tough, let's even the series at the Garden first.

I really want to see Deuce press Hali fullcourt the way they press Jalen, any time we have McBride out there. Let's put some body shots on their closer...and slow them down in general. That, more PT for the double big lineup, and being more methodical on offense are the adjustments I think I'd make.

...though I'm tempted to expand the rotation and run Towns + Bridges/Hart + bench guys whenever their 2nd unit is out there; with Deuce & Mitch getting more minutes next to Brunson, OG & Bridges/Hart/Towns against their top 5.

[The4thHorseman]

Does that even matter at this point. Injuries are part of sports... We had 3 of our top 5 in the series hurt against New York...

Which 3 players didn’t play?

KP, Tatum, and Jrue I guess? Jaylen was reportedly injured but with the way he looked in those last two games, he didn't seem any more banged up than Brunson or Towns, but Jrue was really struggling to keep up with Brunson. Which could just be age, dude is 50, or it could be the hammy that bothered him against Orlando.

Granted the series was already lost when Tatum went down, so KP & Jrue are really the only injuries that affected that series. But boston fans have to cling to something to avoid admitting how badly they under-rated what the Knicks were capable of.

But dude is comparing 3 guys who did play (Tatum 4gms avg. 41mins) to Randle who didn't play, Robinson who played 12mins and OG who played 3gms avg 25mins. against Indy last postseason.

[cgf]

Which 3 players didn’t play?

KP, Tatum, and Jrue I guess? Jaylen was reportedly injured but with the way he looked in those last two games, he didn't seem any more banged up than Brunson or Towns, but Jrue was really struggling to keep up with Brunson. Which could just be age, dude is 50, or it could be the hammy that bothered him against Orlando.

Granted the series was already lost when Tatum went down, so KP & Jrue are really the only injuries that affected that series. But boston fans have to cling to something to avoid admitting how badly they under-rated what the Knicks were capable of.

But dude is comparing 3 guys who did play (Tatum 4gms avg. 41mins) to Randle who didn't play, Robinson who played 12mins and OG who played 3gms avg 25mins. against Indy last postseason.

I think his point was more that injuries happen, so we shouldn't dismiss Indy's win last season...but I wasn't. I was just pointing out that last season's series isn't likely to be too predictive of this series unless you assume we'll get similarly banged up.

[cgf]

Chet on his way to a championship, way ahead of Wemby.

Job's not done just cause they defended home court in the first two, but even if they do pull it off, OKC loses to either eastern conference finalist. Both of us are better coached & have the better closer; while we have the size to push them around and Indy has the speed/depth to beat OKC at their own game.

[Hoop Hunter]

Brunson was getting a lot of touch fouls with the patented head snap. There was a play where he grabbed a Pacers arm and hit himself with it to get a foul call.

Knicks FT 40 - Pacers 28

One of the craziest things I've ever seen. Brunson hit himself in the face with Nesmith's arm. Now that should have been a "flopping" foul.

Read on Twitter

How is that not an obvious foul on Nesmith? Brunson wouldn’t need to knock nesmith’s arm away of Nesmith wasn’t trying to reach in and get in Brunson’s way.

Not the way I see it. He didn't knock the arm away, he pulled it to his face.

[The4thHorseman]

KP, Tatum, and Jrue I guess? Jaylen was reportedly injured but with the way he looked in those last two games, he didn't seem any more banged up than Brunson or Towns, but Jrue was really struggling to keep up with Brunson. Which could just be age, dude is 50, or it could be the hammy that bothered him against Orlando.

Granted the series was already lost when Tatum went down, so KP & Jrue are really the only injuries that affected that series. But boston fans have to cling to something to avoid admitting how badly they under-rated what the Knicks were capable of.

But dude is comparing 3 guys who did play (Tatum 4gms avg. 41mins) to Randle who didn't play, Robinson who played 12mins and OG who played 3gms avg 25mins. against Indy last postseason.

I think his point was more that injuries happen, so we shouldn't dismiss Indy's win last season...but I wasn't. I was just pointing out that last season's series isn't likely to be too predictive of this series unless you assume we'll get similarly banged up.

I knew what you were implying. The injury situations / player availability between NY last postseason to Boston this postseason isn't even comparable.

[cgf]

One of the craziest things I've ever seen. Brunson hit himself in the face with Nesmith's arm. Now that should have been a "flopping" foul.

Read on Twitter

How is that not an obvious foul on Nesmith? Brunson wouldn’t need to knock nesmith’s arm away of Nesmith wasn’t trying to reach in and get in Brunson’s way.

Not the way I see it. He didn't knock the arm away, he pulled it to his face.

It ends up hitting his face because Nesmith was reaching so much and he's stronger than Jalen, but Brunson's not grabbing it, he's trying to knock it up so he can duck under it & get around Nesmith.