Shams: Grizzlies trade Desmond Bane to Magic for KCP, Cole Anthony, 4 1sts, 1 Pick Swap...

[og15]

If Bane forgets how to shoot in Orlando, I’ll be beside myself…

Y'all need a new head coach anyways lol

Ya don't trade 5 first rounders for Bane to be misused.

It's 4... 4 first round picks and a swap. Why do people keep saying 5. They still have a first in 2029.

Lol, yea, sometimes people seem to forget that when you swap you still have a pick regardless of what happens.

[thelead]

60 players get drafted every year, what are the odds of
hitting on someone better than Desmond Bane.

I said maybe.. they had 4 more chances too

By my quick count, the odds of drafting someone as good as or better than Desmond Bane in the second half of the 1st round are about 4% for every pick. There's less than one guy who qualified every year in the last like 12 years, comes to roughly 0.675 per year (with players like Sengun, Maxey, and Bane himself being the examples). Multiple that by 1/15 since there are 15 picks in the back half of the 1st round, and you get 4%.

You can add together as many 4% chances as you have pick--in this case there's 4 so you get 16%. That's about a 1 in 7 chance. Even if you wanted to lower the bar a little better and not just include AS-level guys, you're not looking at better than 1 in 5 or maybe 4.5 with ALL those 4 picks considered. Not good odds.

And if you do hit, you have to go through growing pains with them while Paolo, Franz, and Suggs hit their primes.

Again, the only thing that stings here is that Phoenix pick.

[SA37]

60 players get drafted every year, what are the odds of
hitting on someone better than Desmond Bane.

I said maybe.. they had 4 more chances too

By my quick count, the odds of drafting someone as good as or better than Desmond Bane in the second half of the 1st round are about 4% for every pick. There's less than one guy who qualified every year in the last like 12 years, comes to roughly 0.675 per year (with players like Sengun, Maxey, and Bane himself being the examples). Multiple that by 1/15 since there are 15 picks in the back half of the 1st round, and you get 4%.

You can add together as many 4% chances as you have pick--in this case there's 4 so you get 16%. That's about a 1 in 7 chance. Even if you wanted to lower the bar a little better and not just include AS-level guys, you're not looking at better than 1 in 5 or maybe 4.5 with ALL those 4 picks considered. Not good odds.

This assumes the Magic will always be healthy and always make the playoffs. Look what happened to Philadelphia this year. Now, Philly didn't owe their pick to anyone, but with a bit of bad luck, the Magic could end up handing over a lottery pick. Is that likely? No.

Part of the thing with dealing for draft picks is not just for who or where you might Draft, but it can also be packaged in later trades. If you have a good developmental program like OKC, San Antonio, or Miami, you can get A LOT of value from mid-late 1sts.

The other point I'd make is Memphis is not a FA destination, so the Draft is the most likely place they can acquire talent.

[durden_tyler]

It really feels like this trade was a reach. The Magic's grasp may have exceeded their reach. I think they short armed this trade. I'm not sure they armed themselves with enough knowledge to properly assess this trade against the long arm of time.

Can’t And 1 on mobile so just bumping the best post on this thread.


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[NyKnicks1714]

They coulda gotten a player just as good as Bane with just one of those picks prolly to tell you the truth.. thought maybe they wanted to get rid of contracts too but that’s krazy.. I didn’t even believe the trade that’s why I came here to see if it was true

60 players get drafted every year, what are the odds of
hitting on someone better than Desmond Bane.

Completely the wrong way to look at it. The real question is what are the odds of finding a better player to trade for with all those picks or otherwise finding a better path forward, and I'd say those odds were pretty good.

[mastermixer]

I said maybe.. they had 4 more chances too

By my quick count, the odds of drafting someone as good as or better than Desmond Bane in the second half of the 1st round are about 4% for every pick. There's less than one guy who qualified every year in the last like 12 years, comes to roughly 0.675 per year (with players like Sengun, Maxey, and Bane himself being the examples). Multiple that by 1/15 since there are 15 picks in the back half of the 1st round, and you get 4%.

You can add together as many 4% chances as you have pick--in this case there's 4 so you get 16%. That's about a 1 in 7 chance. Even if you wanted to lower the bar a little better and not just include AS-level guys, you're not looking at better than 1 in 5 or maybe 4.5 with ALL those 4 picks considered. Not good odds.

This assumes the Magic will always be healthy and always make the playoffs. Look what happened to Philadelphia this year. Now, Philly didn't owe their pick to anyone, but with a bit of bad luck, the Magic could end up handing over a lottery pick. Is that likely? No.

Part of the thing with dealing for draft picks is not just for who or where you might Draft, but it can also be packaged in later trades. If you have a good developmental program like OKC, San Antonio, or Miami, you can get A LOT of value from mid-late 1sts.

The other point I'd make is Memphis is not a FA destination, so the Draft is the most likely place they can acquire talent.

It also leaves at the fact that once you commit to a core, you have to start paying your core big money. With the cap apron the way it is, the only way to add players for cheap is either via the draft or vet min signings. So Orlando loses their ability to add players via the draft, and no one particularly wants to sign there.

[thelead]

They coulda gotten a player just as good as Bane with just one of those picks prolly to tell you the truth.. thought maybe they wanted to get rid of contracts too but that’s krazy.. I didn’t even believe the trade that’s why I came here to see if it was true

60 players get drafted every year, what are the odds of
hitting on someone better than Desmond Bane.

Completely the wrong way to look at it. The real question is what are the odds of finding a better player to trade for with all those picks or otherwise finding a better path forward, and I'd say those odds were pretty good.

And fits with the current core AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, doesn’t blow up their cap? That last part is SUPER important. This CBA is making teams be super creative to make things work.

[Optimus_Steel]

Really excited about this move. Bane fits excellently with Franz and Paolo. Bane was my #1 target and they got him.

[SA37]

It really feels like this trade was a reach. The Magic's grasp may have exceeded their reach. I think they short armed this trade. I'm not sure they armed themselves with enough knowledge to properly assess this trade against the long arm of time.

I see what you did there...

[thelead]

By my quick count, the odds of drafting someone as good as or better than Desmond Bane in the second half of the 1st round are about 4% for every pick. There's less than one guy who qualified every year in the last like 12 years, comes to roughly 0.675 per year (with players like Sengun, Maxey, and Bane himself being the examples). Multiple that by 1/15 since there are 15 picks in the back half of the 1st round, and you get 4%.

You can add together as many 4% chances as you have pick--in this case there's 4 so you get 16%. That's about a 1 in 7 chance. Even if you wanted to lower the bar a little better and not just include AS-level guys, you're not looking at better than 1 in 5 or maybe 4.5 with ALL those 4 picks considered. Not good odds.

This assumes the Magic will always be healthy and always make the playoffs. Look what happened to Philadelphia this year. Now, Philly didn't owe their pick to anyone, but with a bit of bad luck, the Magic could end up handing over a lottery pick. Is that likely? No.

Part of the thing with dealing for draft picks is not just for who or where you might Draft, but it can also be packaged in later trades. If you have a good developmental program like OKC, San Antonio, or Miami, you can get A LOT of value from mid-late 1sts.

The other point I'd make is Memphis is not a FA destination, so the Draft is the most likely place they can acquire talent.

It also leaves at the fact that once you commit to a core, you have to start paying your core big money. With the cap apron the way it is, the only way to add players for cheap is either via the draft or vet min signings. So Orlando loses their ability to add players via the draft, and no one particularly wants to sign there.

We still have a FRP pick this year, one in 2027, and one in 2029 over the next 5 drafts. It’s not that dire.

[HotelVitale]

They coulda gotten a player just as good as Bane with just one of those picks prolly to tell you the truth.. thought maybe they wanted to get rid of contracts too but that’s krazy.. I didn’t even believe the trade that’s why I came here to see if it was true

60 players get drafted every year, what are the odds of
hitting on someone better than Desmond Bane.

Completely the wrong way to look at it. The real question is what are the odds of finding a better player to trade for with all those picks or otherwise finding a better path forward, and I'd say those odds were pretty good.

That’s true and the best way to eval the trade. But there’s also bird-in-hand to factor in—Bane is available right now and you get to have him from day one next season (plus in camp etc). Let’s say otherwise you might have to wait a year for a slightly better deal—is it worth paying say a 1st and a swap to get someone like him rn and for the whole season? I’d argue it probably is.

Our usual fan takes often ignore that stuff and want to hold out for the perfect or best scenario. Plus we think of the Derrick White trade as what a 1st can get you, not like the Marco Belinelli trade (take your pick which one) or whatever.

[HotelVitale]

I said maybe.. they had 4 more chances too

By my quick count, the odds of drafting someone as good as or better than Desmond Bane in the second half of the 1st round are about 4% for every pick. There's less than one guy who qualified every year in the last like 12 years, comes to roughly 0.675 per year (with players like Sengun, Maxey, and Bane himself being the examples). Multiple that by 1/15 since there are 15 picks in the back half of the 1st round, and you get 4%.

You can add together as many 4% chances as you have pick--in this case there's 4 so you get 16%. That's about a 1 in 7 chance. Even if you wanted to lower the bar a little better and not just include AS-level guys, you're not looking at better than 1 in 5 or maybe 4.5 with ALL those 4 picks considered. Not good odds.

This assumes the Magic will always be healthy and always make the playoffs. Look what happened to Philadelphia this year. Now, Philly didn't owe their pick to anyone, but with a bit of bad luck, the Magic could end up handing over a lottery pick. Is that likely? No.

Part of the thing with dealing for draft picks is not just for who or where you might Draft, but it can also be packaged in later trades. If you have a good developmental program like OKC, San Antonio, or Miami, you can get A LOT of value from mid-late 1sts.

The other point I'd make is Memphis is not a FA destination, so the Draft is the most likely place they can acquire talent.

Think we all know this but it’s not that persuasive here, since 1) Philly flopped this year because two notoriously injury prone aging guys got injured and 2) the odds are better but not that much for a lotto pick. Definitely not enough to get you anywhere close to it being more likely to get a Bane than not. So yes the worst case could happen but you can’t stop a decision for that and just have to factor it in the possible but unlikely scenarios.

(Also this is a digression so won’t elaborate, but the idea that the vast majority of teams don’t invest massively and smartly in player development is one of those empty sports talk points. It can’t be part of your analysis to say ‘you know what, we should consider doing player development!’ to suddenly greatly increase your draft odds.

[meatwad4343]

I'm trying to be optimistic about how much we paid as a magic fan. All I can say is these picks are more than likely all going to be in the 20s. Kcp I'm glad we got rid of he was getting paid 25 million to do nothing and Cole is replaceable. I'm excited for bane to be here. We aren't contenders yet as we still don't have a an actual point guard but I'm assuming another move is on the way.

[meatwad4343]

Delete

[Raps in 4]

Trading multiple FRPs for role players is idiotic. This is the Knicks trading for Bridges all over gaain.

[Optimus_Steel]

They coulda gotten a player just as good as Bane with just one of those picks prolly to tell you the truth..

Really how?

[meatwad4343]

Well at least it won't take long to put together, unless they are adding footage of all the wide open 3s he continually missed all year. Hot take I'm sure, but his 25m this year and next year might have been considered a bad contract and upped the price on bane. We got nothing out of kcp hardly all year. He can still defend but other than that he was absolutely terrible.

[Flash4thewin]

The Grizz wanted to trade for Jimmy Butler earlier, now I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a play for KD and use the new Sun’s pick as a good incentive.

[Bucks4005]

I mean, people saying this is an overpay, but this is a 20-5-5 player, been part of good defensive teams, has size and fixes their biggest issue in 3 point shooting.

Plus, everyone says these major trades don’t work lit, but in the end, aren’t they closer to 50-50 it seems working out?

Like, Durant, Harden, and Lillard trades have failed for the teams that made them, sure.

But then you got the Jrue who helped get the Bucks a championship. Mitchell and Gobert got their teams over the initial hump of being a borderline playoff team and now their perenial contenders. Mikel even was a key piece in the Knicks finally making a ECF.

Like, everyone sees 4 first rounders and says overpay. But in general, almost always these teams end up much better and contend in the playoffs, even with the Harden, George, Durant type trades.

In terms of impact, I get it, they don’t have
a true PG, but cant really afford not to start Suggs because his defense is that impactful for a G, but now they legitimately have 3 20-5-5 type players all in their starting lineup. Like, you can run your offense through any one of them any given possession, that’s something not every team has.

If u were them, I’d look to package Carter for a better bench big who can spread the floor a bit more or 3 point volume type PG/SG type to spread the floor. Feel Wagner the C is a better fit offensively for this team due to the spacing and the overall size with the rest of the starting lineup will offset some the potential defensive/boards issue starting Moritz might bring.

The big issue is this isn't what Orlando needed. Who is going to run their offense? It's just going to be a "your turn, my turn" offense. That's easy to exploit in the playoffs.

Well, the first issue, before worrying about being exploited in the playoffs, is actually being a perennially playoff contender. Like, a lock for one of the top 6 seeds year in and year out. Worrying about being exposed in the playoffs isnt as big a problem for teams that are contending for the play-in most years like the Magic have, who are trying to take step 1. I mean, saying that this offense could get exposed in the playoffs is kinda putting the cart before the horse. The point is this trade actually attempts to accomplish the very first step, just making it in a high enough seed to actually do something.

And how isn’t this what Orlando needed? They needed a high volume 3 point shooter and spacing, this is a near 40% high volume 3 point shooter who is a high MPG starter that contributes in all areas. Who doesn’t need or want that player exactly? You ask who’s going to run the offense, they can try and work it with all 3 of Wagner, Banchero, and Bane. Sure, it’s not traditional like having one specific high volume guy like some teams have, but considering everything else Bane brings to the offense that they needed, trying it with those 3 first without a traditional PG/high volume creator is worth a shot just due to the overall spacing Bane can provide with the efficient passing he brings. Just because he Magic don’t do it like other teams doesn’t mean it doesn’t work.

[DaGawd]

**** them picks