Bill Simmons RIPS the Raptors roster and salaries. (UPDATE Zach Lowe & Rob Mahoney go in on Raptors)

[Potential]

Just be patient. We have our guys back healthy + Brandon Ingram. Our rookies Shead and JaKobe were impressive last year and they're only getting better. Same with Gradey who's looking to take a leap in year 3. Scottie, RJ, IQ are young and looking to improve as they're not even in their primes yet. Then we got CMB. We have a legit starting center in Poeltl. We had a top 3 defense in the NBA for the last 3 months of the season. It's looking real good right now esp with how deep we are. The potential with this team is intriguing. Can't wait for the season

[brownbobcat]

Curious, where are you getting 19% = borderline all-star? How many borderline all-stars are there? 12 slots per team, 24 all-stars. Maybe half that many borderline all-stars? So something like the top 40 or so?

Is it a hard line in the sand? Obviously not but you can go through historical comps for yourself and there are some clear guideposts based on the CBA.
25%: 1st level max. Most typically seen from guys coming off their rookie scale with "star" potential.
9%: The MLE. Typically high-level bench player or borderline starter

And then of course you have to factor other things like age, injury, RFA vs. UFA, off-court stuff, etc. So in between that, you can slot in average-starter, above-average starter, borderline All Star or whatever brackets you want. Broadly, I'd go:

15%: average starter
20%: high level starter / borderline All Star

My definition of borderline All Stars are guys who would be really good 3rd options, maybe they make AS if they're having a good year on a good team

Mikal Bridges
Aaron Gordon
Derrick White
DeRozan (current version)
FVV
OG
Jamal Murray
Dejounte Murray
McCollum

Their salaries are going to be all over the place because NBA free agency is not a liquid market. Sometimes guys are overpaid, sometimes they're underpaid. It usually makes sense for contending teams to overpay because they want every little bit to win. To me, IQ hadn't done anything to prove he was on that level or that he was clearly a top 15 PG. Is he better than any of these guys? Trae, Haliburton, Fox, Kyrie, Cade, Brunson, Ja, Garland, SGA, Murray, Curry, FVV, Harden, Jrue, Lillard, Ball, Maxey.

The answer is no, which makes him an average starter at best. Do teams have to pay the "potential" premium? Of course, but there was no way his fair market value was $175M/5yr. Even before his injury, I think they easily overpaid $3M/yr. Is that the end of the world? No, it isn't.

The 40th highest paid player this year is making 38M. IQ is down at 53rd. Or is your argument that there are 30 guys who qualify as borderline all-stars (after the 24 guys who are actual all-stars)?

You know the same 24 guys don't make the team every year, right? There are easily 30+ All Star "calibre" players at any given time. Unless you somehow think Sabonis, Booker and Haliburton shouldn't count just because they weren't selected this year. That's my intuition and it also squares with the actual data. There were 38 players who made >= 25% last year. All have been All Stars with the exception of OG, Jamal Murray and MPJ.

As above, my definition of "borderline" is basically guys who aren't really All Stars at all, but a tier under. Do I think IQ is a top-50 player in this league right now? Absolutely not.

As for Poeltl, if 15% is an average starter, and he's an average starter, then he's underpaid the next two years at 13% and 12% of the cap. So we should be happy about that, right?

That said, average starter should be between the 2nd and 3rd highest paid player on the average team. 2.5x30 is the 75th ranked salary. That's 25M, or more like 16.5%.

So Jak at 13%, 12%, 15%, 15%, 15% over the next 5 years is straight up a steal by your standards.

I didn't say Poeltl was overpaid, I said it would be if the 5th year was fully guaranteed since the 2nd half of his extension is much higher and I expect he'll be well below average by then at age 35. Also, he would have less leverage as a non-FA. There's also the larger question of when it does and doesn't make sense to pay market rate for average production. Good team, yes. Bad team, less so.

Straight ranking is also nonsensical because distribution of salaries is also not linear at all, but heavily weighted on the star end.

This all ignores that some rookie scale guys would actually be in the top portion of those lists and push some more expensive guys down into those spots, increasing the expected salary for veteran guys in those roles.

Yes, what's your point? Rookie scale salaries are predetermined (mostly) so there's no purpose in comparing them to non-rookie salaries.

[djsunyc]

it's ok. there's really nothing tangible to refute any criticisms of the team because there's nothing practical to back it up. everything is in the ether. tanking teams get lauded b/c the theory of tanking is looked at favorably.

we aren't tanking so if we're not a contender and not tanking, then folks will criticize it.

and that's OK.

the proof will always be in the pudding. if the team starts winning then that's all that matters. i don't really care what non-raptor fans think about the squad.

BELIEVE IN YOUR CITY! BELIEVE IN YOURSELVES!!!

[tsherkin]

we aren't tanking so if we're not a contender and not tanking, then folks will criticize it.

I will be thrilled if we're north of .500 and make the first round.

I'm prepared to call that a successful season. It's modest, it's attainable, and it's a large shift from the past couple years.

[nikster]

That's the whole deal, though. The "right move" is looking more and more like attaching an asset to get off his salary.

Denver has been waiting many years for a "right move" on MPJ, who has killed their ability to retain other valuable players, or add more. And that's with having a bargain contract in Gordon on the books. That's not because they didn't want to move on from MPJ, they just couldn't get anything other than garbage contracts until they were able to attach an unprotected 1st to move off his cap killing deal.

These are costly constraints on team building. They're not as easy to identify because we're not privy to all the "can't do this because of that" discussions, and they're not all as obvious as Bradley Beal.

MPJ makes $10 million more annually and has a much more significant injury history. His 3 point shootingvmakes him fit as role player but im not dure hes better than RJ (RJs efficiency plummeted with Scottie on the bench this year, just like MPJ falls apart without Jokic). Plus Denver is in win now mode and can't afford to wait. Next off season RJ is gonna be an expiring.

This is more of an example, and yes, being contenders heightens the consequences (we're talking about maneuvers under the tax as a lottery team as opposed to blowing a hole in it and trying to sign veterans for a chip run).

But we already have threads about the potential consequences of the salary bloat. Whether to keep/move Ochai, Gradey or Walter. Ochai, a useful 3&D guard needing a contract next year can very well be the consequence of the salary problems this FO created. You don't want to be forced into actions if you're an FO, you like to be able to dictate and pick and choose.

But I don't think its a very good example because of cost and team situation. RJ is expiring next year and will be more valuable.

And we are having conservation about Ochai, Gradey and Walter because of the amount of players at that position more so than contract issues. We still have lots of flexibility. Dont think there's a point complaining about our cap situation until we see some actual consequences

[Tripod]

The example you're using is not really indicative of the other contracts we've signed though, Fred obviously wanted to leave if the numbers were equal because it's Canada tax vs. Texas no state tax situation, not a surprise, throw in the losing situation in Toronto and it was a no-brainer for him, I don't blame him at all for leaving.

Players who are looking for contract extensions or who are RFA don't have that flexibility, there is no reason to overpay players when they have no leverage like they did with IQ, they were just bidding against themselves. It might even have been better to let him leave if another team overpaid him because we had a drop in replacement in Davion Mitchell who looked really good in Miami after we traded him and is on a significantly cheaper contract going forward. Every team has to make hard decisions about where they spend their money and you need a few solid guys on cheap contracts so you can pay your stars the big bucks.

So you don't think Can taxes come into play unless it's for UFA'S? Come on.

It worked pretty well with Gary Trent, he wanted a big contract, we said no, he signed on a minimum contract and he's probably not getting much more than minimums the rest of his career. We have plenty of other players that can fill his spot on the roster, that's one example of when they made the right move instead of just coughing up the money to keep him.

And really? Davion? He was a cap dump last summer coming off a 5.3pt seasons. It would have been asinine to let IQ go and put Davion in as our starting PG.

Yes Davion had a bounce back year, but what he did in Miami is not sustainable. He is not going to shoot 44.7% from 3 again. And he was still a 10 pt player averaging less assists.than IQ despite playing 4 minutes more a game. You are comparing a starter to a backup.

Davion will be a starter in Miami. Did you watch them in the playoffs? He was playing starter minutes and averaged 15PPG while shooting even better on 3s than he did for them during the regular season. When push came to shove and they needed to play their best players, Davion was one of those players, maybe even the 3rd best player on their team. The league is changing and defence is becoming more important, meanwhile our team has three below average defenders at the starting 1, 2, and 3 spots, somehow I don't think that will end well for us.

It's easy to find 1 example like GTJ for anything.

Maybe, just maybe, they traded and WANTED IQ so there was never a chance they would just let him walk and put Davion as our starting PG. To pretend that was an option is silly.

And yes, Davion played great for the Heat especially in the playoffs. But AGAIN, it's not sustainable. He isn't going to shoot 50% from 3 like he did in the playoffs.

And it's nothing against Davion...I liked him here. He helped create our defensive identity. He just isn't close to going as good as IQ. Hell, if he was, he would have just gotten more than 12 million a year.

[TheGeneral99]

Bobby has to go too, that Poeltl contract is just disgusting and we can't blame Masai for that. Hopefully Ed Rogers cleans house.

Why is it disgusting?

A center in his prime who averages 15 and 10 on 63%fg with elite defense making 25m a year on average until he is 34. That's pretty much on par with any most good starting centers.

Jarrett Allan is on a 4 year 100m deal which expires in 2025 and make no mistake but he will be making at least 30m in his next deal.

Claxton is on a 4 year 97m deal.

Hartenstein is on a 3 year 87m deal.

Turner just signed a 4 year 107m deal.

[S.W.A.N]

Yawn. A lame Bill Simmons hot take.

We literally just finished a tank. Every player on the roster should seem overpaid.
IQ is paid like an above average starting pg. If he plays more that 30 games in a tank year he probably looks like fair value
BI is paid like an above average starting sf. If he plays at all he probably looks like fair value.
RJ is paid like an average starting sg. He's overpaid. But by how much??? AT 20 mill he probably seems like a really good deal.
Scottie is paid like a star PF. He is probably slightly overpaid, but tank year, etc..
Yak is paid like a starting C. He is underpaid this year and next year. Maybe he'll be overpaid in the next two years of the contract, but the cap goes up so it won't be a large amount.
Rest of the roster is basically on rookie or cheap deals.

If this team wins 45 games. It is fairly paid.
IF this team sucks again then Bill is right. But lets actually wait to see how that turns out before panac sets in.

[tsherkin]

Bobby has to go too, that Poeltl contract is just disgusting and we can't blame Masai for that. Hopefully Ed Rogers cleans house.

That... isn't a reasonable opinion at all. He's getting paid less than RJ or Scottie, and the percentage of cap it takes up declines over the length of the contract. It's perfectly fine, and Yak is actually quite a good player.

[TheGeneral99]

Yawn. A lame Bill Simmons hot take.

We literally just finished a tank. Every player on the roster should seem overpaid.
IQ is paid like an above average starting pg. If he plays more that 30 games in a tank year he probably looks like fair value
BI is paid like an above average starting sf. If he plays at all he probably looks like fair value.
RJ is paid like an average starting sg. He's overpaid. But by how much??? AT 20 mill he probably seems like a really good deal.
Scottie is paid like a star PF. He is probably slightly overpaid, but tank year, etc..
Yak is paid like a starting C. He is underpaid this year and next year. Maybe he'll be overpaid in the next two years of the contract, but the cap goes up so it won't be a large amount.
Rest of the roster is basically on rookie or cheap deals.

If this team wins 45 games. It is fairly paid.
IF this team sucks again then Bill is right. But lets actually wait to see how that turns out before panac sets in.

I agree.

The contracts are fair but the issue is health. If Quickley and Ingram can actually stay healthy and play at least 70 games we should be fine, but if they are both injured and miss 25+ games each, it may be a rough season and an overpay.


Right now the worst contracts are Embiid and George on Philly as they barely play, Markennan gets paid a **** ton, Beal is on a massive crazy deal, Zion is on a crazy deal, Murray is heavily overpaid, the Ayton contract was bad, Grant is overpaid, Patrick Williams is overpaid, Lavine is overpaid etc.

[Tripod]

People always hate the way the Raps build because they don't sell everything off to the bones and tank until they get a superstar.

Even next year when we jump up the standings, people will be tossing out "mid", "treadmill", etc...

Meanwhile Indy 2 years ago finished with 35 wins. Things can change quickly.

[Tha Cynic]

Our most notable free agent signings of all time? Not all for the good - one from the draft, and 3 from Europe:

FVV
Jose Calderon
Anthony Parker
Jorge Garbajosa
Bismack Biyombo
Dennis Schroder
Hedo Turkoglu
Jarrett Jack
Jason Kapono
DeMarre Carroll

Yeah Bill Simmons can shut up - he knows nothing about this organization

[johanliebert]

8 pages over the loser Bill Simmons.

[johanliebert]

Our most notable free agent signings of all time? Not all for the goods - one from the draft, and 3 from Europe:

FVV
Jose Calderon
Anthony Parker
Jorge Garbajosa
Bismack Biyombo
Dennis Schroder
Hedo Turkoglu
Jarrett Jack
Jason Kapono

Yeah Bill Simmons can shut up - he knows nothing about this organization

Can't forget Demarre Carrol.

[HoopAndTheHarm]

Bobby has to go too, that Poeltl contract is just disgusting and we can't blame Masai for that. Hopefully Ed Rogers cleans house.

Careful what you wish for. In very short order, now that he has control, Ed will be the central problem to all the MLSE teams. He thinks he's a sports guy and he has terrible judgement on hiring front office people for teams.

[Tha Cynic]

Our most notable free agent signings of all time? Not all for the goods - one from the draft, and 3 from Europe:

FVV
Jose Calderon
Anthony Parker
Jorge Garbajosa
Bismack Biyombo
Dennis Schroder
Hedo Turkoglu
Jarrett Jack
Jason Kapono

Yeah Bill Simmons can shut up - he knows nothing about this organization

Can't forget Demarre Carrol.

Edited to add

[Tor_Raps]

This is a put up or shut up season after tanking back to back years. Masai's already gone but Bobby can pack his bags at the end of the season if this team doesnt make the playoffs and put up a competitive 1st round series.

1 consolidation trade could easily make that a reality but even status quo can put us down that path. I am not a fan of Darko being a good enough coach for when we start to expect wins.

[MoneyBall]

I legit don't get the hate people have for Bill Simmons. He's entertaining and honestly doesn't even take his own opinions too seriously. There's nothing he said there that was way off base.

[TheGeneral99]

Our most notable free agent signings of all time? Not all for the good - one from the draft, and 3 from Europe:

FVV
Jose Calderon
Anthony Parker
Jorge Garbajosa
Bismack Biyombo
Dennis Schroder
Hedo Turkoglu
Jarrett Jack
Jason Kapono
DeMarre Carroll

Yeah Bill Simmons can shut up - he knows nothing about this organization

Ironically, it's not like the Celtics are great at attracting free agents either.

Their most notable free agent signing since 2000 was Gordon Hayward in 2017 and that was helped a lot because Stephens coached him College.

Other than that their main free agent signings have been Horford, Amir Johnson, and Evan Turner.

[Boogie!]

Where’s Kendrick Perkins? Simmons is a certified raptors hater, got into with Perkins when Perkins suggested raptors could be a 6th seed next year.