Why the Warriors should and will re-sign Kuminga

[TB]

I still think around 21m first year makes the most sense for both parties.

Lets the Warriors use the TPMLE (Horford) and not be forced to go with rookies for the remaining vet minimums (guys like Melton, Beal, Morris, GP2 etc).

Kuminga gets serious wealth with likely opt outs early in his potential prime to land that massive deal he thinks he deserves… but without the risk of losing it all or feeling like its him against the world in another prove it year. And I actually think he has more of a role on the Warrior with an aging Jimmy/Dray (especially if we land Horford and other 3/Ds) than some of the teams he’s linked to. What happens when he’s losing minutes to Murray and Derozan or Clifford starts needing minutes? Is he a better future than Matas and Essengue in Chicago?

[vvoland]

Yea if he was only good at it is the issue

His scoring is definitely not the issue. He does so at a high level, both individually, and for the team's o-rating. Whether his defense, rebounding, passing, etc. will be at a level high enough for Kerr to play him is another question.

He scored at a below average true shooting percentage.

That's a bit misleading. His TS% of ~60% his first 3 seasons would be well above league average. The 53.5% he shot last season, was below league average, but looks like an outlier. Career, he's at .583 or just above league average (.576 last year) . Same story for eFG.

Between the injury, the awful start, and other issues, I think he's closer to his first 3 years than he is to what he showed last year, at least from an offensive efficiency standpoint.

[CS707]

Yes, that was a S&T, same as KD, it's not that rare. It is exceedingly rare, however, to get anything of value in those type of S&Ts. Considering how, at the moment, the leverage is almost entirely with GSW and, next summer, will be mostly with JK.

Not sure how the leverage is with GS, seems to me the leverage is with the other teams that the Warriors are trying to make a deal with, and with JK, who has to agree to any S&T.

No one has the cap space to make a big offer, JK's play doesn't warrant the $$$ he's seeking, and the dubs seem fine matching anything 25M and under. Agreeing to a S&T isn't required, unless the assets are significantly better than DC, Saric, and 2 seconds. Getting JK to sign a 3 year deal, even with a PO, at anything under 25, seems like a win for the dubs.

I keep using Austin Reaves as my example, in a better market, a player with a much better rep around the league, and high level playoff production. He got screwed by RFA despite having multiple things go in his favor, including his play and the market timing, versus where JK, Giddey, et al, currently are. What leverage does JK have? Sac or Mia has no leverage. Only BKN, which had the capspace to tell the dubs to kick rocks and could have offered him a contract that would have guaranteed the dubs were over the 2nd apron. I don't believe they can do that, anymore.

Why would the dubs need to agree to the poo-poo platter return in a trade, this time? When the dubs traded KD and a pick for d'angelo russell, they did it just to keep the salary slot but now? Why not just keep JK. Especially when the contract looks like it'll be 15/yr.

Wasn't Reaves limited due to only having two years tenure in the league? IIRC there were some funky rules specific to his situation that allowed LAL to match a larger contract offer than they could actually offer themselves, which limited outside interest. I think Kuminga's issue is less about the lack of flexibility and more to do with the league valuing him closer to the Warriors than JK's asking price. Teams aren't going to tie their money up in an offer they know the Warriors will match. If he was valued higher, I think someone would have found a way to make it work. To be clear, I'm not saying he has no value, just that there seems to be a consensus of approximate value that is more in line with the organization than JK's camp.

[Onus]

His scoring is definitely not the issue. He does so at a high level, both individually, and for the team's o-rating. Whether his defense, rebounding, passing, etc. will be at a level high enough for Kerr to play him is another question.

He scored at a below average true shooting percentage.

That's a bit misleading. His TS% of ~60% his first 3 seasons would be well above league average. The 53.5% he shot last season, was below league average, but looks like an outlier. Career, he's at .583 or just above league average (.576 last year) . Same story for eFG.

Between the injury, the awful start, and other issues, I think he's closer to his first 3 years than he is to what he showed last year, at least from an offensive efficiency standpoint.

Yea he thrived when he was playing off of others. When he actually has to create for himself against someone he doesn't have a physical advantage on it's not pretty

[vvoland]

He scored at a below average true shooting percentage.

That's a bit misleading. His TS% of ~60% his first 3 seasons would be well above league average. The 53.5% he shot last season, was below league average, but looks like an outlier. Career, he's at .583 or just above league average (.576 last year) . Same story for eFG.

Between the injury, the awful start, and other issues, I think he's closer to his first 3 years than he is to what he showed last year, at least from an offensive efficiency standpoint.

Yea he thrived when he was playing off of others. When he actually has to create for himself against someone he doesn't have a physical advantage on it's not pretty

Tell that to Jalen McDaniels and anyone else on the Twolves roster.

He's clearly a flawed player and one that may not be a good fit here. It's hard to argue he's not a talented and efficient scorer. Sure, he has trouble against teams with size on the back line because he doesn't have a great offensive game outside of 5 feet. That doesn't matter when you can finish like giannis (career 74% from <3ft and 39% from <10ft vs JK at 73%/49%). Oh, and gets to the line like shai (FT rate of .40 for shai vs .41 for JK). Can he do that with more minutes? The numbers indicate that he has when he got them but it's different when you have to do it for 82 games.

No matter how you slice it, he's a very good offensive player, and for his age range, a great one. Franz Wagner, by comparison, has worse numbers across the board (efg, ts, ftr, and finishing w/in 3 AND 10 ft). So is Ant. So is Paolo. Yes, they're all better at other things, but, as a scorer, JK more than holds his own in EVERY metric, except volume.

Again, AS A SCORER, JK is in that class. It's the assist rate vs TO rate that puts him below those guys as an overall offensive player, but, as a scorer, JK is highly underrated and is elite for his position (PF) and age (either <22 or <=4 yrs).

[statsman]

It is a bit difficult to analyze Kuminga's shooting numbers. But there does seem to be a pattern that the more FGAs per36 (or per 100pos) he has, the lower his eFG%. The curve from his first three seasons is pretty consistent with that.

With last season (his 4th), the eFG curve dropped off quite a bit with a career high FGAs/36, if only the games before the injury are analyzed. 50.6% eFG on 18.3 FGAs/36.

Actually, there was a bit of a dropoff in eFG after the ASG in his 3rd season with an increase in FGAs/36.

If you are going to rely on Kuminga for high volume shooting, you had better be prepared for much lower efficiency in his shooting.

[vvoland]

It is a bit difficult to analyze Kuminga's shooting numbers. But there does seem to be a pattern that the more FGAs per36 (or per 100pos) he has, the lower his eFG%. The curve from his first three seasons is pretty consistent with that.

With last season (his 4th), the eFG curve dropped off quite a bit with a career high FGAs/36, if only the games before the injury are analyzed. 50.6% eFG on 18.3 FGAs/36.

Actually, there was a bit of a dropoff in eFG after the ASG in his 3rd season with an increase in FGAs/36.

If you are going to rely on Kuminga for high volume shooting, you had better be prepared for much lower efficiency in his shooting.

Yes, the volume question is an open one and I left that as a caveat in my post, as well.

My counterpoint to this very valid argument is that JK plays the vast majority of his minutes w/o Steph and on this team, especially last year, that meant 0 spacing. Despite that, he still managed to put above average efficiency and I'm not sure there's anyone else on this roster that could have done that, including jimmy.

[Onus]

That's a bit misleading. His TS% of ~60% his first 3 seasons would be well above league average. The 53.5% he shot last season, was below league average, but looks like an outlier. Career, he's at .583 or just above league average (.576 last year) . Same story for eFG.

Between the injury, the awful start, and other issues, I think he's closer to his first 3 years than he is to what he showed last year, at least from an offensive efficiency standpoint.

Yea he thrived when he was playing off of others. When he actually has to create for himself against someone he doesn't have a physical advantage on it's not pretty

Tell that to Jalen McDaniels and anyone else on the Twolves roster.

He's clearly a flawed player and one that may not be a good fit here. It's hard to argue he's not a talented and efficient scorer. Sure, he has trouble against teams with size on the back line because he doesn't have a great offensive game outside of 5 feet. That doesn't matter when you can finish like giannis (career 74% from <3ft and 39% from <10ft vs JK at 73%/49%). Oh, and gets to the line like shai (FT rate of .40 for shai vs .41 for JK). Can he do that with more minutes? The numbers indicate that he has when he got them but it's different when you have to do it for 82 games.

No matter how you slice it, he's a very good offensive player, and for his age range, a great one. Franz Wagner, by comparison, has worse numbers across the board (efg, ts, ftr, and finishing w/in 3 AND 10 ft). So is Ant. So is Paolo. Yes, they're all better at other things, but, as a scorer, JK more than holds his own in EVERY metric, except volume.

Again, AS A SCORER, JK is in that class. It's the assist rate vs TO rate that puts him below those guys as an overall offensive player, but, as a scorer, JK is highly underrated and is elite for his position (PF) and age (either <22 or <=4 yrs).

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630228/shots-dash

The more JK holds the ball and dribbles the worst he is.

JK playing off of others and finishing is a very efficient scorer.

JK isolations terrible.

[Onus]

It is a bit difficult to analyze Kuminga's shooting numbers. But there does seem to be a pattern that the more FGAs per36 (or per 100pos) he has, the lower his eFG%. The curve from his first three seasons is pretty consistent with that.

With last season (his 4th), the eFG curve dropped off quite a bit with a career high FGAs/36, if only the games before the injury are analyzed. 50.6% eFG on 18.3 FGAs/36.

Actually, there was a bit of a dropoff in eFG after the ASG in his 3rd season with an increase in FGAs/36.

If you are going to rely on Kuminga for high volume shooting, you had better be prepared for much lower efficiency in his shooting.

Yes, the volume question is an open one and I left that as a caveat in my post, as well.

My counterpoint to this very valid argument is that JK plays the vast majority of his minutes w/o Steph and on this team, especially last year, that meant 0 spacing. Despite that, he still managed to put above average efficiency and I'm not sure there's anyone else on this roster that could have done that, including jimmy.

Jimmy did do it though ...

[vvoland]

It is a bit difficult to analyze Kuminga's shooting numbers. But there does seem to be a pattern that the more FGAs per36 (or per 100pos) he has, the lower his eFG%. The curve from his first three seasons is pretty consistent with that.

With last season (his 4th), the eFG curve dropped off quite a bit with a career high FGAs/36, if only the games before the injury are analyzed. 50.6% eFG on 18.3 FGAs/36.

Actually, there was a bit of a dropoff in eFG after the ASG in his 3rd season with an increase in FGAs/36.

If you are going to rely on Kuminga for high volume shooting, you had better be prepared for much lower efficiency in his shooting.

Yes, the volume question is an open one and I left that as a caveat in my post, as well.

My counterpoint to this very valid argument is that JK plays the vast majority of his minutes w/o Steph and on this team, especially last year, that meant 0 spacing. Despite that, he still managed to put above average efficiency and I'm not sure there's anyone else on this roster that could have done that, including jimmy.

Jimmy did do it though ...

Yea, Jimmy was really good in the non-curry minutes. I just went back to check the numbers : +12.8 in 877 possessions.

[vvoland]

Yea he thrived when he was playing off of others. When he actually has to create for himself against someone he doesn't have a physical advantage on it's not pretty

Tell that to Jalen McDaniels and anyone else on the Twolves roster.

He's clearly a flawed player and one that may not be a good fit here. It's hard to argue he's not a talented and efficient scorer. Sure, he has trouble against teams with size on the back line because he doesn't have a great offensive game outside of 5 feet. That doesn't matter when you can finish like giannis (career 74% from <3ft and 39% from <10ft vs JK at 73%/49%). Oh, and gets to the line like shai (FT rate of .40 for shai vs .41 for JK). Can he do that with more minutes? The numbers indicate that he has when he got them but it's different when you have to do it for 82 games.

No matter how you slice it, he's a very good offensive player, and for his age range, a great one. Franz Wagner, by comparison, has worse numbers across the board (efg, ts, ftr, and finishing w/in 3 AND 10 ft). So is Ant. So is Paolo. Yes, they're all better at other things, but, as a scorer, JK more than holds his own in EVERY metric, except volume.

Again, AS A SCORER, JK is in that class. It's the assist rate vs TO rate that puts him below those guys as an overall offensive player, but, as a scorer, JK is highly underrated and is elite for his position (PF) and age (either <22 or <=4 yrs).

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630228/shots-dash

The more JK holds the ball and dribbles the worst he is.

JK playing off of others and finishing is a very efficient scorer.

JK isolations terrible.

I agree with the shot selection/play type criticism. He's done enough of both, across his 4 seasons, to still be a very good scorer (if not better than that).

That is, literally, all I'm saying.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Not sure how the leverage is with GS, seems to me the leverage is with the other teams that the Warriors are trying to make a deal with, and with JK, who has to agree to any S&T.

No one has the cap space to make a big offer, JK's play doesn't warrant the $$$ he's seeking, and the dubs seem fine matching anything 25M and under. Agreeing to a S&T isn't required, unless the assets are significantly better than DC, Saric, and 2 seconds. Getting JK to sign a 3 year deal, even with a PO, at anything under 25, seems like a win for the dubs.

I keep using Austin Reaves as my example, in a better market, a player with a much better rep around the league, and high level playoff production. He got screwed by RFA despite having multiple things go in his favor, including his play and the market timing, versus where JK, Giddey, et al, currently are. What leverage does JK have? Sac or Mia has no leverage. Only BKN, which had the capspace to tell the dubs to kick rocks and could have offered him a contract that would have guaranteed the dubs were over the 2nd apron. I don't believe they can do that, anymore.

Why would the dubs need to agree to the poo-poo platter return in a trade, this time? When the dubs traded KD and a pick for d'angelo russell, they did it just to keep the salary slot but now? Why not just keep JK. Especially when the contract looks like it'll be 15/yr.

Wasn't Reaves limited due to only having two years tenure in the league? IIRC there were some funky rules specific to his situation that allowed LAL to match a larger contract offer than they could actually offer themselves, which limited outside interest. I think Kuminga's issue is less about the lack of flexibility and more to do with the league valuing him closer to the Warriors than JK's asking price. Teams aren't going to tie their money up in an offer they know the Warriors will match. If he was valued higher, I think someone would have found a way to make it work. To be clear, I'm not saying he has no value, just that there seems to be a consensus of approximate value that is more in line with the organization than JK's camp.

Yeah, reeves was limited on his extension because he was an undrafted rookie. But looking at all the guys who can score but can't defend, I think he and his agent miscalculated his value.

If guys like jk and reeves were rfa a few years back, I think they'd have more value than they do now. The league is changing. Follow the money.

[vvoland]

Yea he thrived when he was playing off of others. When he actually has to create for himself against someone he doesn't have a physical advantage on it's not pretty

Tell that to Jalen McDaniels and anyone else on the Twolves roster.

He's clearly a flawed player and one that may not be a good fit here. It's hard to argue he's not a talented and efficient scorer. Sure, he has trouble against teams with size on the back line because he doesn't have a great offensive game outside of 5 feet. That doesn't matter when you can finish like giannis (career 74% from <3ft and 39% from <10ft vs JK at 73%/49%). Oh, and gets to the line like shai (FT rate of .40 for shai vs .41 for JK). Can he do that with more minutes? The numbers indicate that he has when he got them but it's different when you have to do it for 82 games.

No matter how you slice it, he's a very good offensive player, and for his age range, a great one. Franz Wagner, by comparison, has worse numbers across the board (efg, ts, ftr, and finishing w/in 3 AND 10 ft). So is Ant. So is Paolo. Yes, they're all better at other things, but, as a scorer, JK more than holds his own in EVERY metric, except volume.

Again, AS A SCORER, JK is in that class. It's the assist rate vs TO rate that puts him below those guys as an overall offensive player, but, as a scorer, JK is highly underrated and is elite for his position (PF) and age (either <22 or <=4 yrs).

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630228/shots-dash

The more JK holds the ball and dribbles the worst he is.

JK playing off of others and finishing is a very efficient scorer.

JK isolations terrible.

Thanks for posting that link. Is there a way to get it to show multiple seasons?

[Onus]

Tell that to Jalen McDaniels and anyone else on the Twolves roster.

He's clearly a flawed player and one that may not be a good fit here. It's hard to argue he's not a talented and efficient scorer. Sure, he has trouble against teams with size on the back line because he doesn't have a great offensive game outside of 5 feet. That doesn't matter when you can finish like giannis (career 74% from <3ft and 39% from <10ft vs JK at 73%/49%). Oh, and gets to the line like shai (FT rate of .40 for shai vs .41 for JK). Can he do that with more minutes? The numbers indicate that he has when he got them but it's different when you have to do it for 82 games.

No matter how you slice it, he's a very good offensive player, and for his age range, a great one. Franz Wagner, by comparison, has worse numbers across the board (efg, ts, ftr, and finishing w/in 3 AND 10 ft). So is Ant. So is Paolo. Yes, they're all better at other things, but, as a scorer, JK more than holds his own in EVERY metric, except volume.

Again, AS A SCORER, JK is in that class. It's the assist rate vs TO rate that puts him below those guys as an overall offensive player, but, as a scorer, JK is highly underrated and is elite for his position (PF) and age (either <22 or <=4 yrs).

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630228/shots-dash

The more JK holds the ball and dribbles the worst he is.

JK playing off of others and finishing is a very efficient scorer.

JK isolations terrible.

Thanks for posting that link. Is there a way to get it to show multiple seasons?

There should be a filter where you can change the year and regular season vs post season but not multiple seasons. Would just need to put it into an excel and do the math on your own to do that.

[vvoland]

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630228/shots-dash

The more JK holds the ball and dribbles the worst he is.

JK playing off of others and finishing is a very efficient scorer.

JK isolations terrible.

Thanks for posting that link. Is there a way to get it to show multiple seasons?

There should be a filter where you can change the year and regular season vs post season but not multiple seasons. Would just need to put it into an excel and do the math on your own to do that.

I'm not that invested in it. The ability to navigate between seasons is good enough. Just weird that they have a date filter but it's overwritten by the season filter.

[KevinMcreynolds]

He’s not a winning player, would’ve been great to take a shot on a guy like Carter. Not sure why that trade fell through. I don’t buy the “they don’t want to trade to a division rival” story.

[Onus]

He’s not a winning player, would’ve been great to take a shot on a guy like Carter. Not sure why that trade fell through. I don’t buy the “they don’t want to trade to a division rival” story.

Come on you think Lacob was going to settle for Devin Carter who shot under 40 and under 30 after his rookie year after saying no to Og, Pascal, Lauri, Cam, Caruso?

[KevinMcreynolds]

He’s not a winning player, would’ve been great to take a shot on a guy like Carter. Not sure why that trade fell through. I don’t buy the “they don’t want to trade to a division rival” story.

Come on you think Lacob was going to settle for Devin Carter who shot under 40 and under 30 after his rookie year after saying no to Og, Pascal, Lauri, Cam, Caruso?

He exposed him to the league, so now he has to take his losses. If they pass up Carter we’ll probably end up with even less later on. JK’s value is going to continue going down.

[Onus]

He’s not a winning player, would’ve been great to take a shot on a guy like Carter. Not sure why that trade fell through. I don’t buy the “they don’t want to trade to a division rival” story.

Come on you think Lacob was going to settle for Devin Carter who shot under 40 and under 30 after his rookie year after saying no to Og, Pascal, Lauri, Cam, Caruso?

He exposed him to the league, so now he has to take his losses. If they pass up Carter we’ll probably end up with even less later on. JK’s value is going to continue going down.

Why does he have to take his loss? Lacob is just going to continue to force JK on this team

[vvoland]

Come on you think Lacob was going to settle for Devin Carter who shot under 40 and under 30 after his rookie year after saying no to Og, Pascal, Lauri, Cam, Caruso?

He exposed him to the league, so now he has to take his losses. If they pass up Carter we’ll probably end up with even less later on. JK’s value is going to continue going down.

Why does he have to take his loss? Lacob is just going to continue to force JK on this team

While it's undeniable Lacob has huge influence over FO decisions, I am willing to bet significant money that he has 0 say over Kerr's rotations. Not just because they've been so weird and often feature players the FO is not invested in over the youth the FO drafted. Mostly because Kerr is a no b.s. dude, once fought Mike in practice, and has 4 rings (3 in his first 4 years as coach). He doesn't need the job, has the ultimate backing from players, and is a strong personality. He has more say over FO decisions than lacob has over the lineups.