Kuminga to SAC, is there a middle ground?

[parsnips33]

I want one of these GMs that's only ever on the right end of deals

[NW]

I will say this…

….if Keon is unhappy about not getting the new deal asap (it cost him some change) then there’s a slim chance the Kings include him. But it’s only if they think the bridge is burned and he’ll test FA next offseason.

Yeah, I think Keon’s unrestricted FA status is a definite factor. With more teams looking to have cap room next summer, what kind of extension would the Kings have to give him to make him not want to test that market as an unrestricted FA with all the leverage in his favor? And will the Kings pay him that number?

Of course, if he’s in the deal, that becomes a concern for the Warriors too

I feel that all of you are ignorant to the fact that Scott Perry is not like any other GM we have had since the early 2000’s. He’s not stupid and he’s not going to let an asset walk for nothing or make a crappy deal just to make a deal. He’s also not giving away our talent for nothing like foolish past moves. He’s going to be on the right end of deals and get value.

I’m figuring he’s looking at the usual activity in an NBA season and he knows that he can move the guys that aren’t attracting enough interest now for good value then and likely dump money off the cap. He can then turn around and extend Keon at the same time also likely start him. So I don’t see it being an issue.

So he’s going to get value for contracts that no other team is touching and dump money off the cap to pay Ellis.

This is the Scott Perry from the Knicks front office pre-Leon Rose?

Okay. That should be impressive to watch

[ChuckDurn]

I will say this…

….if Keon is unhappy about not getting the new deal asap (it cost him some change) then there’s a slim chance the Kings include him. But it’s only if they think the bridge is burned and he’ll test FA next offseason.

Yeah, I think Keon’s unrestricted FA status is a definite factor. With more teams looking to have cap room next summer, what kind of extension would the Kings have to give him to make him not want to test that market as an unrestricted FA with all the leverage in his favor? And will the Kings pay him that number?

Of course, if he’s in the deal, that becomes a concern for the Warriors too

I feel that all of you are ignorant to the fact that Scott Perry is not like any other GM we have had since the early 2000’s. He’s not stupid and he’s not going to let an asset walk for nothing or make a crappy deal just to make a deal. He’s also not giving away our talent for nothing like foolish past moves. He’s going to be on the right end of deals and get value.

I’m figuring he’s looking at the usual activity in an NBA season and he knows that he can move the guys that aren’t attracting enough interest now for good value then and likely dump money off the cap. He can then turn around and extend Keon at the same time also likely start him. So I don’t see it being an issue.

I’m curious…. On what basis are you giving Perry this much credit?

He was GM for the Knicks for 6 years, starting with the 2017-28 season. That season they went 29-53, followed by seasons of 17-65 and 21-45 (COVID-shortened 2019-20 season).

In the summer of 2020, they hired Tom Thibodeau as head coach; the main roster additions were Obi Toppin (didn’t do much that year), Immanuel Quickley (productive as a rookie, but not game-changing), and Alec Burks. They obviously had roster subtractions as well, including Bobby Portis and Taj Gibson (i.e. productive players).

But with Thibodeau now coaching, the record jumped to 41-31 in ‘20-‘21; dropped to 37-45 in ‘21-‘22; and went up to 47-35 in ‘22-‘23. This second “jump” was largely attributable to Jalen Brunson signing in the summer of 2022….. but how much of that was Perry’s brilliance, as opposed to Brunson wanting to leave an unsatisfactory opportunity in Dallas, and make a lot of money playing in his hometown with his dad coaching him (Rick Brunson on staff to the Knicks)?

The Knicks’ further ascension to be a contender, and additional moves gathering star players (Bridges, Anunoby, Towns) took place after Perry left in the summer of ‘23.

So the 2 “jumps” in the record seemed to be because they made a smart coaching hire (Thibodeau), and had a hometown star drop in their lap (Brunson), not particularly because of roster-creation brilliance by Perry. Needless to say, they’re not going to have a hometown star drop in their lap in Sacramento.

So what has Perry done….. really….. to suggest that he’s markedly better than the GM team that led Sacramento to a shock 3rd-place finish in the Western Conference a couple of years ago?

[longfellow44]

Ya’ll keep underestimating Carter. His archetype is valuable. Look at the last two champs. They have guards who can defend up and down, and rebound. Carter shoots well enough to stay on the floor.

I'm not trying to dump on a guy after one injury filled year. And tbf I have no idea how the Warriors' FO scouted Carter. But from an outsider's perspective, the team that has the most invested in him - Sacramento - isn't acting like he's part of their long term plans. So I'm not really sure why I should assign him much value.

Yeah exactly this, the warriors are acting exactly the same way with kuminga, so his value is obviously also impacted.

[NW]

Ya’ll keep underestimating Carter. His archetype is valuable. Look at the last two champs. They have guards who can defend up and down, and rebound. Carter shoots well enough to stay on the floor.

I'm not trying to dump on a guy after one injury filled year. And tbf I have no idea how the Warriors' FO scouted Carter. But from an outsider's perspective, the team that has the most invested in him - Sacramento - isn't acting like he's part of their long term plans. So I'm not really sure why I should assign him much value.

Yeah exactly this, the warriors are acting exactly the same way with kuminga, so his value is obviously also impacted.

Kuminga has some record of on court performance in the league. Carter, to this date, has not

[Lenneth]

Ya’ll keep underestimating Carter. His archetype is valuable. Look at the last two champs. They have guards who can defend up and down, and rebound. Carter shoots well enough to stay on the floor.

25-26: 3.8 pts / 37% FG / 29.5% 3pts / 59.1% FT
Summer: 14.5 pts / 40.5% FG / 28.9% 3pts / 59.3% FT

Sure, he missed half a year with an injury. But, is it too much to ask for 23-year-old sophomore to dominate the summer league or put up decent stats at least? He might be a good defensive player, but I don't see how he could shoot well enough to stay on the floor with that kind of efficiency. And, Warriors are one phone call away from getting 6-2 defensive player, 34% from 3 pts, and know the Warriors system very well.

He could turn around and have a successful NBA career. But, when you hear Kings consider dumping Carter for Westbrook, it shows the trust Kings have on Carter...

How many shots is that for a guy coming back from a shoulder injury?

The Kings have a new GM. He has Keon. He sees a redundancy.

He injured his shoulder a year ago, and he returned to the court 7 months ago. Here are his monthly stats, which don't show any improvement.

Jan: 10.0 mins / 3.6 pts / 31.1% FG / 26.1% 3pts / 75.0% FT
Feb: 7.8 mins / 4.2 pts / 38.1% FG / 30.0% 3pts / 75.0% FT
Mar: 10.8 mins / 3.9 pts / 50.0% FG / 29.4% 3pts / 45.5% FT
Apr: 16.3 mins / 3.8 pts / 31.0% FG / 36.4% 3pts / 50.0% FT

If his shoulder is still bothering him after half a year to affect his poor summer league performance, that might be a bigger reason to worry about.

Usually, a team does not give up on a promising sophomore with a championship archetype regardless of redundancy. But then, Kings have a history of trading redundancy, so we will see.

[Nate the Great]

It’s unclear to me what GS or fans are thinking. This is his current value in this offseason’s market. Maybe the Kings offer gets a little better but this is the range. For some reason there’s a belief that’s not true and some much better offer is coming any moment now…as we enter into August. Kerr benched him at key times. He is worth what GS made him worth. That’s reality. Everything is pointing to that. Literally…all the evidence says that’s the case. Gonna have to deal with it.

You’re saying his current value on today’s market is two garbage players who won’t play and a couple seconds. Then by that logic, you shouldn’t want him on your team at all. So why don’t the Kings drop out of the discussion? The Warriors can do better than that by simply waiting until Kuminga has to take the QO.

I’m not saying…the market has said.

Getting a lotto pick from last year, an expiring and some mild draft compensation is the market. That’s reality. And there are Kings fans, myself included, who aren’t happy with that offer.

Don’t worry, there’s no logical reason for the Warriors to take it. You’re basically saying, “take this package that’s worse than nothing or you get nothing.”

[SNPA]

You’re saying his current value on today’s market is two garbage players who won’t play and a couple seconds. Then by that logic, you shouldn’t want him on your team at all. So why don’t the Kings drop out of the discussion? The Warriors can do better than that by simply waiting until Kuminga has to take the QO.

I’m not saying…the market has said.

Getting a lotto pick from last year, an expiring and some mild draft compensation is the market. That’s reality. And there are Kings fans, myself included, who aren’t happy with that offer.

Don’t worry, there’s no logical reason for the Warriors to take it. You’re basically saying, “take this package that’s worse than nothing or you get nothing.”

I’m not saying that…the market has said.

[Texas Chuck]

I want one of these GMs that's only ever on the right end of deals

I also want Donnie Nelson back.

[gswhoops]

I’m not saying…the market has said.

Getting a lotto pick from last year, an expiring and some mild draft compensation is the market. That’s reality. And there are Kings fans, myself included, who aren’t happy with that offer.

Don’t worry, there’s no logical reason for the Warriors to take it. You’re basically saying, “take this package that’s worse than nothing or you get nothing.”

I’m not saying that…the market has said.

Fine, by the same token "the market" has said that Devin Carter is so worthless that he's negative value on a rookie deal, because the Warriors won't even trade a guy no one wants for him.

[Texas Chuck]

Neither guy is worthless. Kuminga doesn't really hold much trade value as RFA's rarely do, but he's got some skills and he would have no problems getting signed if GSW pulled the QO. Carter has disappointed to date, but I don't think to the degree where teams already see his rookie deal as a negative. I think if the Kings really shopped him they could get some value back--not a pick as high as they used on him obviously, but something.

Not sure why we need to go to extremes though in discussing a theoretical deal.

[gswhoops]

Neither guy is worthless. Kuminga doesn't really hold much trade value as RFA's rarely do, but he's got some skills and he would have no problems getting signed if GSW pulled the QO. Carter has disappointed to date, but I don't think to the degree where teams already see his rookie deal as a negative. I think if the Kings really shopped him they could get some value back--not a pick as high as they used on him obviously, but something.

Not sure why we need to go to extremes though in discussing a theoretical deal.

My point here is mostly that a player's "market value" is not determined by what one specific team will or won't trade for them

[Texas Chuck]

My point here is mostly that a player's "market value" is not determined by what one specific team will or won't trade for them

Yep, its always been about what's the most any team would trade for them or pay them. Here we can't know that so we try and figure what makes the most sense in a vacuum, but we also do a pretty good job of talking about why team X might pay more than team Y. See that Sexton/Gafford discussion for instance.

[ChuckDurn]

Neither guy is worthless. Kuminga doesn't really hold much trade value as RFA's rarely do, but he's got some skills and he would have no problems getting signed if GSW pulled the QO. Carter has disappointed to date, but I don't think to the degree where teams already see his rookie deal as a negative. I think if the Kings really shopped him they could get some value back--not a pick as high as they used on him obviously, but something.

Not sure why we need to go to extremes though in discussing a theoretical deal.

You’ve just explained America in 2025, not merely the NBA.

[gswhoops]

Shams and Slater put out an article with some interesting tidits re: Kuminga this morning: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45859355/sources-jonathan-kuminga-declining-warriors-offer-terms

Some highlights:

Kuminga and Turner have used July to explore their sign-and-trade options. The most significant negotiations have been with the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns, getting proposals up to four years approaching $90 million total, including a player option for the final season, sources said. Phoenix has made the most lucrative push via sign-and-trade.

The Warriors have been uninterested in the trade returns from the Kings and Suns for Kuminga, sources said. In recent days, they have begun signaling a plan to cut off sign-and-trade conversations entirely, using their restricted free agency leverage to the fullest, sources said. Their current stance is that Kuminga will be on the Warriors' roster to begin next season -- either through their two-year offer on the table or the standing $7.9 million one-year qualifying offer, whichever is Kuminga's preferred path.

Kuminga prefers the longer-term offers presented by the Kings and Suns because he believes they signify a fresh start, a larger guaranteed role, a promised starting position and a greater level of respect and career control, shown in part through the player option, sources said. Phoenix's proposal is also nearly $70 million more guaranteed than the Warriors' offer.

[eminence]

Does it say what the current SAC/PHO offers are?

Saric/Carter or Grayson Allen offers are the last I remember seeing.

Not very good offers.

[gswhoops]

Shams and Slater put out an article with some interesting tidits re: Kuminga this morning: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45859355/sources-jonathan-kuminga-declining-warriors-offer-terms

Some highlights:

Kuminga and Turner have used July to explore their sign-and-trade options. The most significant negotiations have been with the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns, getting proposals up to four years approaching $90 million total, including a player option for the final season, sources said. Phoenix has made the most lucrative push via sign-and-trade.

The Warriors have been uninterested in the trade returns from the Kings and Suns for Kuminga, sources said. In recent days, they have begun signaling a plan to cut off sign-and-trade conversations entirely, using their restricted free agency leverage to the fullest, sources said. Their current stance is that Kuminga will be on the Warriors' roster to begin next season -- either through their two-year offer on the table or the standing $7.9 million one-year qualifying offer, whichever is Kuminga's preferred path.

Kuminga prefers the longer-term offers presented by the Kings and Suns because he believes they signify a fresh start, a larger guaranteed role, a promised starting position and a greater level of respect and career control, shown in part through the player option, sources said. Phoenix's proposal is also nearly $70 million more guaranteed than the Warriors' offer.

My interpretation of the above:

-Kings and Suns are willing to meet Kuminga's asking price but not to give GSW the kind of return they're expecting in a S&T
-Kuminga is willing to take a lower AAV to leave the Warriors and not willing to waive the implied NTC
-Warriors are prepared (and likely expecting) to go into the season with Kuminga on the roster despite him wanting to leave

[gswhoops]

Does it say what the current SAC/PHO offers are?

Saric/Carter or Grayson Allen offers are the last I remember seeing.

Not very good offers.

It didn't. It says the Phoenix offer is more "lucrative" but it's not clear whether that's referring to the financial offer to Kuminga, the asset offer to GS, or both.

[ChuckDurn]

Does it say what the current SAC/PHO offers are?

Saric/Carter or Grayson Allen offers are the last I remember seeing.

Not very good offers.

Yeah, there was some talk of the Suns’ offer potentially also being Royce O’Neale (maybe with Nick Richards) rather than Allen, but it sounds like the Warriors don’t have an interest in any of the 3 guys.

And it’s also pretty clear that the Kings’ offer can’t actually include Saric at this time, since he can’t be aggregated until January. At the time conversations started and that was “on the table”, the trade where teh Kings got him from Denver wasn’t completed so alternate structures were available as a multi-team deal, but that’s not possible any longer with that deal being done. So really the only way Sacramento can make a sign-and-trade offer, and get under the appropriate cap / apron (I can’t remember which they’re at) would be if they move salary off their books, most likely either Monk or DeRozan. (And they wouldn’t be going to the Warriors, who have no interest in either, and would create further complications for their books.) So any deal with Sacramento would have to be complicated, requiring at least a third team to take on that salary while giving very little back.

[xdrta+]

And it’s also pretty clear that the Kings’ offer can’t actually include Saric at this time, since he can’t be aggregated until January.

I've seen January a few times but don't know where it comes from. The rule is two months from the trade date which would make it Sept 13.