UTA - PHI: Embiid + George to Utah

[Apz]

I fo find it kinda funny what utah wanted from lakers in the kessler discussions, then here they in the scenario gives kessler and lauri for 2 1sts and maybe the biggest negative money package in history

[babyjax13]

I fo find it kinda funny what utah wanted from lakers in the kessler discussions, then here they in the scenario gives kessler and lauri for 2 1sts and maybe the biggest negative money package in history

Well, the hypothetical value of the picks matters a lot, and whether they are protected/unprotected, etc.

[gswhoops]

I fo find it kinda funny what utah wanted from lakers in the kessler discussions, then here they in the scenario gives kessler and lauri for 2 1sts and maybe the biggest negative money package in history

Well, the hypothetical value of the picks matters a lot, and whether they are protected/unprotected, etc.

Exactly. The unprotected 2026 Philly 1st alone is worth more than all of the picks/swaps LAL has to offer.

[the_process]

So slightly off topic from the original trade, but let's say Embiid's knee is really the gnarled tree stump that it seems, and he medically retires at the end of this season. What happens to the money? I assume Embiid gets all his contract money... do the sixer's get it off their cap space (while still having to pay it?) Or... ?

Yes.

[the_process]

I am trying to figure the value for the players. If Embiid and George are "cooked", that makes them essentially zero value to me.
So, it turns out to be Markkanen, Kessler and roles for McCain and 2 firsts? If Kessler is worth a first, Markkanen is only McCain and a first?
Bad year or not, Markkanen is worth more than that.

McCain and a 1st for Lauri is not something I'd do for Philly.

[the_process]

How far off is PG, Drummond, and the Clipper 1st for Lauri and SloMo?

[gswhoops]

How far off is PG, Drummond, and the Clipper 1st for Lauri and SloMo?

Probably one decent but not great 1st if PG and Lauri continue to play like they did last year

[jbk1234]

Every time something leaks out of Philly regarding Embiid's health status there's a medical retirement implication, and that just wildly misaligns the incentives for a trade.

In any event, I don't have the o.p. as nearly enough incentive to eat that much salary for that long. Philly should obviously do it.

I think I agree with the first sentence... But I don't see why on the 2nd. Unless you believe in a Maxey/VJ/Lauri core...

From Philly's perspective, it really comes down how amenable Embiid is going to be to a medical retirement. He has to not play for an entire year after the announcement in order for the cap hit to drop.

Spending 65% of your cap on PG and Embiid over the course of three full seasons is brutal. PG drops off and McCain is a RFA. Embiid drops off and VJ is a RFA. Also, Maxey will need a new deal that summer. Basically, they're completely capped out over the course of two separate iterations of the team.

Now maybe they decide they're not retaining Maxey at 30%. Maybe one or both of McCain and VJ aren't worth 25%, but they're forgoing the opportunity to add to roster with Embiid and PG on the books.

[gswhoops]

Every time something leaks out of Philly regarding Embiid's health status there's a medical retirement implication, and that just wildly misaligns the incentives for a trade.

In any event, I don't have the o.p. as nearly enough incentive to eat that much salary for that long. Philly should obviously do it.

I think I agree with the first sentence... But I don't see why on the 2nd. Unless you believe in a Maxey/VJ/Lauri core...

From Philly's perspective, it really comes down how amenable Embiid is going to be to a medical retirement. He has to not play for an entire year after the announcement in order for the cap hit to drop.

Spending 65% of your cap on PG and Embiid over the course of three full seasons is brutal. PG drops off and McCain is a RFA. Embiid drops off and VJ is a RFA. Also, Maxey will need a new deal that summer. Basically, they're completely capped out over the course of two separate iterations of the team.

Now maybe they decide they're not retaining Maxey at 30%. Maybe one or both of McCain and VJ aren't worth 25%, but they're forgoing the opportunity to add to roster with Embiid and PG on the books.

This would all make sense if Philly were getting expirings back in this deal, but they're not. Lauri's deal is just as long as Embiid's (and longer than PG's). Kessler is going to take $20-25M annually to re-sign. They still end up capped out for the foreseeable future; just with fewer assets to build a team that might actually compete for something other than a play-in spot down the line.

[jbk1234]

I think I agree with the first sentence... But I don't see why on the 2nd. Unless you believe in a Maxey/VJ/Lauri core...

From Philly's perspective, it really comes down how amenable Embiid is going to be to a medical retirement. He has to not play for an entire year after the announcement in order for the cap hit to drop.

Spending 65% of your cap on PG and Embiid over the course of three full seasons is brutal. PG drops off and McCain is a RFA. Embiid drops off and VJ is a RFA. Also, Maxey will need a new deal that summer. Basically, they're completely capped out over the course of two separate iterations of the team.

Now maybe they decide they're not retaining Maxey at 30%. Maybe one or both of McCain and VJ aren't worth 25%, but they're forgoing the opportunity to add to roster with Embiid and PG on the books.

This would all make sense if Philly were getting expirings back in this deal, but they're not. Lauri's deal is just as long as Embiid's (and longer than PG's). Kessler is going to take $20-25M annually to re-sign. They still end up capped out for the foreseeable future; just with fewer assets to build a team that might actually compete for something other than a play-in spot down the line.

Lauri makes less than either player though. Assuming Kessler signs for 10-15% of the cap, your talking about 20% more cap space, and with players who are far more likely to offer positive contributions.

[Daddy 801]

Every time something leaks out of Philly regarding Embiid's health status there's a medical retirement implication, and that just wildly misaligns the incentives for a trade.

In any event, I don't have the o.p. as nearly enough incentive to eat that much salary for that long. Philly should obviously do it.

I think I agree with the first sentence... But I don't see why on the 2nd. Unless you believe in a Maxey/VJ/Lauri core...

From Philly's perspective, it really comes down how amenable Embiid is going to be to a medical retirement. He has to not play for an entire year after the announcement in order for the cap hit to drop.

Spending 65% of your cap on PG and Embiid over the course of three full seasons is brutal. PG drops off and McCain is a RFA. Embiid drops off and VJ is a RFA. Also, Maxey will need a new deal that summer. Basically, they're completely capped out over the course of two separate iterations of the team.

Now maybe they decide they're not retaining Maxey at 30%. Maybe one or both of McCain and VJ aren't worth 25%, but they're forgoing the opportunity to add to roster with Embiid and PG on the books.

Crappy thing for Philly fans is Embiid will probably lace them up a few games each season. But not enough to make a big difference. If he is in as bad of shape as published I wouldn’t try to play him a single game until the last 10 games of the regular season just so the guys have some familiarity with his game pre playoffs. Brutal situation regardless.

[gswhoops]

From Philly's perspective, it really comes down how amenable Embiid is going to be to a medical retirement. He has to not play for an entire year after the announcement in order for the cap hit to drop.

Spending 65% of your cap on PG and Embiid over the course of three full seasons is brutal. PG drops off and McCain is a RFA. Embiid drops off and VJ is a RFA. Also, Maxey will need a new deal that summer. Basically, they're completely capped out over the course of two separate iterations of the team.

Now maybe they decide they're not retaining Maxey at 30%. Maybe one or both of McCain and VJ aren't worth 25%, but they're forgoing the opportunity to add to roster with Embiid and PG on the books.

This would all make sense if Philly were getting expirings back in this deal, but they're not. Lauri's deal is just as long as Embiid's (and longer than PG's). Kessler is going to take $20-25M annually to re-sign. They still end up capped out for the foreseeable future; just with fewer assets to build a team that might actually compete for something other than a play-in spot down the line.

Lauri makes less than either player though. Assuming Kessler signs for 10-15% of the cap, your talking about 20% more cap space, and with players who are far more likely to offer positive contributions.

To what end though? You're locked into a slightly better team with less upside and fewer assets moving forward. Maybe you make the play-in instead of being the 12th seed? That can't be the goal.

[jbk1234]

This would all make sense if Philly were getting expirings back in this deal, but they're not. Lauri's deal is just as long as Embiid's (and longer than PG's). Kessler is going to take $20-25M annually to re-sign. They still end up capped out for the foreseeable future; just with fewer assets to build a team that might actually compete for something other than a play-in spot down the line.

Lauri makes less than either player though. Assuming Kessler signs for 10-15% of the cap, your talking about 20% more cap space, and with players who are far more likely to offer positive contributions.

To what end though? You're locked into a slightly better team with less upside and fewer assets moving forward. Maybe you make the play-in instead of being the 12th seed? That can't be the goal.

I don't think the new team has less upside. I know it has more cap space.

[SD2042]

So slightly off topic from the original trade, but let's say Embiid's knee is really the gnarled tree stump that it seems, and he medically retires at the end of this season. What happens to the money? I assume Embiid gets all his contract money... do the sixer's get it off their cap space (while still having to pay it?) Or... ?

I *think* the way this works is that Embiid still gets the cash (from either the Sixers or their insurance carrier) and the money comes off their books from a cap/tax/apron perspective

Embiid's salary would transfer to the insurance carrier like how Chris Bosh's salary did when his medical health issues with his blood clots forced him to retire several years ago.

[HornetJail]

i think if Philly is ready to move on from Embiid, they'll get something small from a desperate team, but I doubt it's Utah. Embiid will add wins Utah doesn't want (until he gets his annual injury) in their race to the bottom.

I guess the 2026 pick is worth it, but the Jazz would surprise me as a destination overall

[Daddy 801]

i think if Philly is ready to move on from Embiid, they'll get something small from a desperate team, but I doubt it's Utah. Embiid will add wins Utah doesn't want (until he gets his annual injury) in their race to the bottom.

I guess the 2026 pick is worth it, but the Jazz would surprise me as a destination overall

If Utah was going to trade for him (which all indications from the Jazz front office are they would not) they would rest him for the whole year. Have him get whatever surgeries he needs, rehab, condition, etc. And then take a look at playing him next year or medical retirement.

[Daddy 801]

More I think about this trade the more I think it would be just PG for Lauri. Assuming Lauri comes back strong and PG isn’t playing well. If Philly can offload Embiid’s contract via medical (and this thread is assuming it’s that bad he needs to) then Philly is in a good spot to have a lot of cap space and a decent young core and getting off of PG (assuming he isn’t playing well) and using the cap space they now have with Embiids contract off the books seems more likely a scenario for Philly.

If I am the Philly GM I am not giving up picks to offload Embiid IF he can be a medical insurance policy claim. But if PG isn’t playing well, adding Lauri who is playing well, using the cap space, and sending limited assets to Utah to take PG….I could see that type of thing happening.

[AingesBurner]

Yeah. Utah shouldn’t do this.

[gswhoops]

Lauri makes less than either player though. Assuming Kessler signs for 10-15% of the cap, your talking about 20% more cap space, and with players who are far more likely to offer positive contributions.

To what end though? You're locked into a slightly better team with less upside and fewer assets moving forward. Maybe you make the play-in instead of being the 12th seed? That can't be the goal.

I don't think the new team has less upside. I know it has more cap space.

If you don’t think that giving up McCain and an unprotected 1st in an excellent draft for Lauri Markkanen lowers their upside then we’re just gonna have to agree to disagree

[tmorgan]

Important point to remember:

The medical retirement is only available to the team that signed the player to the contract. Therefore, Philly is never trading Embiid, because he has massive negative value anywhere else.

Unless, of course, he miraculously gets healthy. And then Philly keeps him anyway.