Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on Playoff NetRtg

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Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on Playoff NetRtg 

Post#1 » by Ssj16 » Sun Aug 10, 2025 12:43 am

I noticed on these boards that there have been many claims to weaker vs stronger playoff runs. For instance, I've seen several posters who claim the Denver run was one of the weaker playoff runs in recent history.

I decided to look at the Net Rating of each playoff Champ and the teams they faced and decided to compare how each of the playoff runs stacked up against each other. Net Rating was the best advanced stat I could find that I believe best showcased the current strength of each team during each playoff run. This does not take into account injuries.

Net Rating Score ( Champion net rating subtracting the sum of all the competing team's net ratings; lower score = stronger playoff)
1) Raptors: 5.3
2) Warriors: 6.5
3) Bucks: 15.8
4) Nuggets: 16.3
5) Lakers: 17
6) Thunder: 27.9
7) Celtics: 28

Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds (see spoiler for formula; lower score = stronger playoff
1) Raptors: -260.2
2) Warriors: -242.9
3) Bucks: -237.2
4) Nuggets: -226.6
5) Lakers: -219.4
6) Thunder: -214.5
7) Celtics: -213.5

Net Rating with No First Round Score (first round can skew scores since these teams generally have a drastically lower score than teams in further rounds; lower score = stronger playoff
1) Raptors: -9.7
2) Bucks: -4.4
3) Warriors: -1.7
4) Lakers: 6.6
5) Nuggets: 7.1
6) Thunder: 8.6
7) Celtics: 10.8

Opponent Strength Score with No First Round (higher score = stronger playoff)
1) Raptors: 15.3
2) Bucks: 9.7
3) Warriors: 6.9
4) Denver: 1.6
5) Lakers: 0.4
6) Thunder: -0.2
7) Celtics: -2.1

Overall Score based on all above rankings (Ordered from strongest to weakest playoff run; tie breaker in spoiler)
1) Raptors
2) Warriors
3) Bucks
4) Nuggets
5) Lakers
6) Thunder
7) Celtics

Spoiler:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2019.html
2018-2019 Championship Run Net Ratings
Raptors 5.6
Warriors 3.5
Bucks 8.7
76ers 3.1
Magic -15

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2020.html
2019-2020 Championship Run Net Ratings
Lakers 7
Heat 2
Nuggets -2.4
Rockets 0.8
Trailblazers. -10.4

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2021.html
2020-2021 Championship Run Net Ratings
Bucks 5.3
Suns 4.7
Hawks -1.5
Nets 6.5
Heat -20.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2022.html
2021-2022 Championship Run Net Ratings
Warrriors 5.2
Celtics 3.7
Mavericks 0.8
Grizzlies 2.4
Nuggets -8.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2023.html
2022-2023 Championship Run Net Ratings
Nuggets 8.7
Miami 1.6
Lakers 2.4
Suns -2.4
Timberwolves. -9.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2024.html
2023-2024 Championship Run Net Ratings
Celtics 8.7
Mavericks 2.8
Pacers 1.1
Cavaliers -6
Heat -17.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2025.html
2024-2025 Championship Run Net Ratings
Thunder 8.4
Pacers 2
Minnesota 2.8
Nuggets -5
Grizzlies -19.3

Formula for Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds:
Each net rating was adjusted by adding 21 to ensure all net ratings were positive numbers.
Applied Fibonacci sequence to weight against the net rating of each round the champ faced:
Round 1 multiplied by 1
Round 2 multiplied by 2
Round 3 multiplied by 3
Round 4 multiplied by 5
Subtracted the the sum of the weighted Round 1 through 4 scores from the championship Net Rating score

Formula for Overall Score Tie Breaker
To break tie between Bucks and Warriors the following formula was used:

Net Rating Score + Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds + Net Rating with No First Round Score - Opponent Strength Score with No First Round
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#2 » by tmorgan » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:04 am

Isn’t this more of a statement that:

Based on regular season results from that year, the Raptors were the biggest overall underdog to win a title recently?
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#3 » by Rust_Cohle » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:05 am

Lebron was in some horrific conferences for much of his career but didn’t realize that even when he did move West, the lakers had an easier run than most.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#4 » by NZB2323 » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:21 am

Net Rtg isn’t the best stat to show the current strength of a team they’re facing if that team has injuries.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#5 » by DusterBuster » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:57 am

LOL.

I see what you're doing OP
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#6 » by whatisacenter » Sun Aug 10, 2025 2:53 am

Image

Now I'm picking the Raptors to win the title!
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#7 » by Anticon » Sun Aug 10, 2025 4:13 am

Tremendous bait right here lol.

But as everyone knows, the Raptors were the greatest team in the parity era and the Celtics were frauds. So thank you for confirming my very objective opinion.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#8 » by LeBronSpaghetti » Sun Aug 10, 2025 4:14 am

The Celtics did have an extremely weak path, everyone knows this. And everyone they faced was decimated by injuries. They were still an outstanding team and it was as legit a championship as any. Also the Raptors played the warriors without KD in the finals. Do these stats take that into account?
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#9 » by tmorgan » Sun Aug 10, 2025 5:22 am

C’mon, this is just ridiculous. It’s just comparing regular season net rating to opponents.

The Celtics and Thunder score the lowest because they were the best team in the league for their championship year with the highest net rating. That’s it. Nothing more.

This is the intellectual equivalent of saying the Cavs played the weakest schedule in the NBA last year. They did, but only because the were the best team in the weaker conference. Means nothing.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#10 » by Ticket » Sun Aug 10, 2025 7:25 am

tmorgan wrote:C’mon, this is just ridiculous. It’s just comparing regular season net rating to opponents.

The Celtics and Thunder score the lowest because they were the best team in the league for their championship year with the highest net rating. That’s it. Nothing more.

This is the intellectual equivalent of saying the Cavs played the weakest schedule in the NBA last year. They did, but only because the were the best team in the weaker conference. Means nothing.


Thank you. The more dominant a team's playoff run is, the more it gets downplayed to weak opposition.

It's in RealGM's nature.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#11 » by Godymas » Sun Aug 10, 2025 9:28 am

Lakers should be 7th by default because the league suspended play around March and then resumed play in August

just absurd conditions for an old and injury prone team to get a rest for 4 months before the playoffs
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#12 » by Optms » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:29 pm

This is the epitome of stat gymnastics if I've ever seen. Congrats. :lol:
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#13 » by brackdan70 » Sun Aug 10, 2025 3:02 pm

LeBronSpaghetti wrote:The Celtics did have an extremely weak path, everyone knows this. And everyone they faced was decimated by injuries. They were still an outstanding team and it was as legit a championship as any. Also the Raptors played the warriors without KD in the finals. Do these stats take that into account?

All true, but it’s never mentioned that that Celtics team also had key injuries.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#14 » by chilluminati » Sun Aug 10, 2025 3:05 pm

The best year to start counting would have to be 2019, obviously.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#15 » by YogurtProducer » Sun Aug 10, 2025 3:25 pm

This is a bad post that still somehow comes to the right conclusion.

Raptors are the strongest championship team since 2019. Only team I say is close and would be a toss up is OKC.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#16 » by Ssj16 » Tue Aug 12, 2025 2:39 am

tmorgan wrote:Isn’t this more of a statement that:

Based on regular season results from that year, the Raptors were the biggest overall underdog to win a title recently?


It could be seen that way. But there is a table of data that shows opponent net rating regardless of the championship team's net rating and Raptors opponents were fairly strong even before the the injuries of Klay and KD.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#17 » by Ssj16 » Tue Aug 12, 2025 2:43 am

tmorgan wrote:C’mon, this is just ridiculous. It’s just comparing regular season net rating to opponents.

The Celtics and Thunder score the lowest because they were the best team in the league for their championship year with the highest net rating. That’s it. Nothing more.

This is the intellectual equivalent of saying the Cavs played the weakest schedule in the NBA last year. They did, but only because the were the best team in the weaker conference. Means nothing.


I think you misunderstood. These are net rating metrics taken during the playoffs, not during the regular season. I linked the reference to those metrics.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on NetRtg 

Post#18 » by Ssj16 » Tue Aug 12, 2025 2:46 am

YogurtProducer wrote:This is a bad post that still somehow comes to the right conclusion.

Raptors are the strongest championship team since 2019. Only team I say is close and would be a toss up is OKC.


I challenge why this is a bad post. Everything is factual based on playoff net rating. Weekly while I'm on RealGM, I hear people say "Team X had the weakest playoff run ever", but this is purely objective.

I'm not saying playoff net rating is a perfect stat or metric but it's an objective attempt to look at how different play runs played out vs listening to an opinion of a RealGM poster which would be most likely covered in bias.
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on Playoff NetRtg 

Post#19 » by ChumboChappati » Tue Aug 12, 2025 3:42 pm

Ssj16 wrote:I noticed on these boards that there have been many claims to weaker vs stronger playoff runs. For instance, I've seen several posters who claim the Denver run was one of the weaker playoff runs in recent history.

I decided to look at the Net Rating of each playoff Champ and the teams they faced and decided to compare how each of the playoff runs stacked up against each other. Net Rating was the best advanced stat I could find that I believe best showcased the current strength of each team during each playoff run. This does not take into account injuries.

Net Rating Score ( Champion net rating subtracting the sum of all the competing team's net ratings; lower score = stronger playoff)
1) Raptors: 5.3
2) Warriors: 6.5
3) Bucks: 15.8
4) Nuggets: 16.3
5) Lakers: 17
6) Thunder: 27.9
7) Celtics: 28

Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds (see spoiler for formula; lower score = stronger playoff
1) Raptors: -260.2
2) Warriors: -242.9
3) Bucks: -237.2
4) Nuggets: -226.6
5) Lakers: -219.4
6) Thunder: -214.5
7) Celtics: -213.5

Net Rating with No First Round Score (first round can skew scores since these teams generally have a drastically lower score than teams in further rounds; lower score = stronger playoff
1) Raptors: -9.7
2) Bucks: -4.4
3) Warriors: -1.7
4) Lakers: 6.6
5) Nuggets: 7.1
6) Thunder: 8.6
7) Celtics: 10.8

Opponent Strength Score with No First Round (higher score = stronger playoff)
1) Raptors: 15.3
2) Bucks: 9.7
3) Warriors: 6.9
4) Denver: 1.6
5) Lakers: 0.4
6) Thunder: -0.2
7) Celtics: -2.1

Overall Score based on all above rankings (Ordered from strongest to weakest playoff run; tie breaker in spoiler)
1) Raptors
2) Warriors
3) Bucks
4) Nuggets
5) Lakers
6) Thunder
7) Celtics

Spoiler:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2019.html
2018-2019 Championship Run Net Ratings
Raptors 5.6
Warriors 3.5
Bucks 8.7
76ers 3.1
Magic -15

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2020.html
2019-2020 Championship Run Net Ratings
Lakers 7
Heat 2
Nuggets -2.4
Rockets 0.8
Trailblazers. -10.4

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2021.html
2020-2021 Championship Run Net Ratings
Bucks 5.3
Suns 4.7
Hawks -1.5
Nets 6.5
Heat -20.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2022.html
2021-2022 Championship Run Net Ratings
Warrriors 5.2
Celtics 3.7
Mavericks 0.8
Grizzlies 2.4
Nuggets -8.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2023.html
2022-2023 Championship Run Net Ratings
Nuggets 8.7
Miami 1.6
Lakers 2.4
Suns -2.4
Timberwolves. -9.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2024.html
2023-2024 Championship Run Net Ratings
Celtics 8.7
Mavericks 2.8
Pacers 1.1
Cavaliers -6
Heat -17.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2025.html
2024-2025 Championship Run Net Ratings
Thunder 8.4
Pacers 2
Minnesota 2.8
Nuggets -5
Grizzlies -19.3

Formula for Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds:
Each net rating was adjusted by adding 21 to ensure all net ratings were positive numbers.
Applied Fibonacci sequence to weight against the net rating of each round the champ faced:
Round 1 multiplied by 1
Round 2 multiplied by 2
Round 3 multiplied by 3
Round 4 multiplied by 5
Subtracted the the sum of the weighted Round 1 through 4 scores from the championship Net Rating score

Formula for Overall Score Tie Breaker
To break tie between Bucks and Warriors the following formula was used:

Net Rating Score + Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds + Net Rating with No First Round Score - Opponent Strength Score with No First Round

is it another way to tell us that Raptors were not the luckiest champion in the past 10 years? :lol:
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Re: Weakest to Strongest Playoff Runs (2019 - 2025) Based on Playoff NetRtg 

Post#20 » by Edrees » Tue Aug 12, 2025 9:01 pm

This doesn't take nito account injury. Raptors net rating of opponents isn't actually what it is , Warriors net rating without KD and Klay is probably bottom tier in the league.

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