Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

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Without doing much arithmetic to confirm, I'm quite sure Sylvie's projection is pretty much on the mark.

OTOH, really, I don't see what bearing this has on the main issues.

1. Deni improved a lot the 2d half of his '23-4 season. Then he improved a fair amount more with Portland.
2. If Portland went to trade Deni now, they would get significantly more than they gave for him. I don't see how that can be questioned.
3. This means that the trade has turned out extremely well for Portland so far.
4. We don't know yet how the trade will turn out for us overall, because we still have a R1 pick & 2 R2 picks coming. There's no point in denying this.
5. That said, altho we might get Jimmy Butler II w/ that R1 pick & Jokic II w/ one of those R2 picks, no one in his right mind would predict that outcome: it looks likely that when all the cards are turned over the values will favor Portland.

There's an unknown factor in the potential effect Deni's good play if he'd been here last season might have had on our draft position. Would this argument still be raging if we'd won the lottery & picked Cooper Flagg? Nah....

At the same time, there's no point in making an argument based on incalculables.

In the end, it's fair to say that we gave up a very good player, and we have not yet gotten back a player who helps even up that balance of value. I don't see how anyone could deny this.

[doclinkin]

In the end, it's fair to say that we gave up a very good player, and we have not yet gotten back a player who helps even up that balance of value.

We got a 100% chance to land Tre Johnson. Vs a possibility that we slipped even further. However you want to calculate that. We fell to the floor of probability but still got a good player.

We got the upside of Bub Carrington, as yet unknown.

And most importantly we retain a stronger possibility that we keep our 2026 pick. After which I think it’s fair to judge this front office, since at that point they own all their own decisions. But until then, even if Deni wins MIP or tiptoes into all star conversation, in my opinion it’s too early to judge.

At the point where they chose to bottom out and build through the draft, it’s hard to assess them based on wins and losses. But I do have to respect how completely they have committed to that process.

We have what, twelve players on rookie contracts right now. No team wins with that make up. We can massage losses while auditioning talent here and the Gogo. Somehow they have out-PIF’ed PIF even. Even in his wildest trade down scenarios we rarely ended up with that many rooks and youngsters. Yet here they’ve done it while trading UP in every draft. And having a steady revolving door of Bring Out Your Dead veterans to land us young prospects.

They have done exactly what they’ve said they’d do. Sticking firmly with the strategy. In contrast with prior regimes it’s a refreshing change that does take a long range view instead of hanging on to players too long, and patching the team with bandaid trades around them.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don’t think Deni was worth a lot of wins by the way. I know this because he played for us and we lost a lot.

Neither was Rui Hachimura. How on earth he's played well the past two seasons for the Lakers is inexplicable.

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In the end, it's fair to say that we gave up a very good player, and we have not yet gotten back a player who helps even up that balance of value.

We got a 100% chance to land Tre Johnson. Vs a possibility that we slipped even further. However you want to calculate that. We fell to the floor of probability but still got a good player....

We got the upside of Bub Carrington, as yet unknown.

And most importantly we retain a stronger possibility that we keep our 2026 pick....

Yes, I agree totally: all three of these points will factor in when we look back at the move a few more years down the line.

...After which I think it’s fair to judge this front office, since at that point they own all their own decisions. But until then, even if Deni wins MIP or tiptoes into all star conversation, in my opinion it’s too early to judge....

The trade of Deni cannot be fully judged until all the pieces traded have actually come to the teams involved. Period. How could it be?

...they chose to bottom out and build through the draft...

TBH, I'm not even sure that counts as a choice. I'd put it differently. What they chose was to build a modern, sustainable, contending franchise -- a choice no previous Wizards FO had ever made. That alone was revolutionary.

.&, given that choice, there was no other route than to "bottom out and build through the draft." Period. Even if we'd kept Deni, that would still have been the sole -- & necessary! -- route to success....

..They have done exactly what they’ve said they’d do. Sticking firmly with the strategy. In contrast with prior regimes it’s a refreshing change that does take a long range view instead of hanging on to players too long, and patching the team with bandaid trades around them.

Hence, if we are to "judge this front office," all we can judge are those draft picks. Were they good choices. That's what there is to watch for -- how the young guys work out.

Of course, there are other events to keep an eye on -- the bargain pick up of Whitmore if it works out, etc. But, in truth, they are secondary.

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Another view... very low level analysis, however:

Watch on YouTube

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OTOH:

Watch on YouTube

[AFM]

We should rename this board the Deni Avdija board and just have one Wizards thread.

[doclinkin]

I.e. if one wants to criticize the Deni trade, no problem -- but the critique has to be that "we didn't get enough for Deni," followed by justification of the claim. &, in fact, this was the approach nate took initially (if I recall correctly), writing that if we were going to trade Deni we should have gotten the same kind of value that Cam Johnson had just brought.

Mikal Bridges. I wanted the Mikal Bridges package.

Then we'd have to time travel and have Deni attend VIllanova. As a 15 year old. So he could play alongside Brunson, Josh Hart, Bridges, and DiVincenzo.

Nobody is getting that trade. It was a confluence of events not repeatable. The Nova connection. The Knicks needing exactly what Bridges was thought to offer (ranged shooting plus defense). That Brunson was owed input in roster decisions given that he re-upped for cheaper than he earned. And chiefly that the Penguin was coaching New York and he notoriously does not trust rookies. He didn't care if they traded away a future haul in order to bring another Nova player to help out Brunson and the other 'cats.

Yes naturally if someone offered 5 unprotected 1st round picks and swaps the Wiz would have jumped on it. You're not likely to see that haul again. Thats a Ricky WIlliams to the New Orleans Saints lopsided trade. Worse than Doncic for Unibrow. Its an unrealistic standard.

(To say nothing of the difficulty of preserving Deni's value while both trying to lose, and finding developmental minutes for multiple other players at his position, and trying to showcase Kuzma for trade, along with Deni's spotty history of reacting poorly to being benched in favor of worse players. Teams around the league would have had leverage knowing we were under pressure to ship out surplus forwards, while we slid from top lotto position to 5th, 6th, 7th... Egor Demin here we come.)

Given the knowns vs. unknowns at the time, we did pretty well to recoup 6 assets for one player. I think long term we will look back and say we did well from the deal. In the short term Portland is happy. Though Deni helping them win may have an effect on what draft pick we get back from the Bucks swap. Potential bonus to us, though that could go either way.

[dckingsfan]

We should rename this board the Deni Avdija board and just have one Wizards thread.

Or do that at least until Deni becomes an all-star or when the Wizards become a top 6 team in the East.

[Kanyewest]

I am lying down on my Deni bed sheets awaiting some new posts.

[Dat2U]

Substitute Deni on this roster for Bub and Riley for Clayton Jr and suddenly the roster looks play-in caliber. The core would be solid, with upside but maybe a cap on the ceiling with no true star. 35-40 wins feels likely. Losing the 2026 pick feels likely as well but we'd be a young team with a taste of the playoffs in good position to add salary.

To me, the protections owed pick is what that Deni trade was really about and they really wanted shots at both the '25 & '26 drafts. Keeping Deni, who was entering his prime was likely going to get in the way of that in their view. They gambled thinking he would not turn into the star they were hoping to acquire with one of those picks. He's become a top 60 player in book, maybe a little higher but they are gambling by letting him go, they can draft a franchise altering prospect next year that's even better.

Do i agree with it? No, I'm generally against trading away young guys that are midst of significantly improving and showing steady development. Quality wings are so few & far between that guys like Avdija are a premium. Contract was too good. Not saying he was untradeable but that deal disappointed me significantly. I guess I understand it and agree with the idea of doing everything to keep those '25 & '26 picks but I would have tried to go about it another way.

[nate33]

Substitute Deni on this roster for Bub and Riley for Clayton Jr and suddenly the roster looks play-in caliber. The core would be solid, with upside but maybe a cap on the ceiling with no true star. 35-40 wins feels likely. Losing the 2026 pick feels likely as well but we'd be a young team with a taste of the playoffs in good position to add salary.

To me, the protections owed pick is what that Deni trade was really about and they really wanted shots at both the '25 & '26 drafts. Keeping Deni, who was entering his prime was likely going to get in the way of that in their view. They gambled thinking he would not turn into the star they were hoping to acquire with one of those picks. He's become a top 60 player in book, maybe a little higher but they are gambling by letting him go, they can draft a franchise altering prospect next year that's even better.

Do i agree with it? No, I'm generally against trading away young guys that are midst of significantly improving and showing steady development. Quality wings are so few & far between that guys like Avdija are a premium. Contract was too good. Not saying he was untradeable but that deal disappointed me significantly. I guess I understand it and agree with the idea of doing everything to keep those '25 & '26 picks but I would have tried to go about it another way.

Agreed.

The bottom line is that I think our 2025 pick would have been okay by keeping Deni, but our 2026 pick would definitely be in jeopardy. If we had gotten the Philly slot, our 2025 pick would have actually been higher than where we ended up, and maybe we would have enough talent right now to shift into competitive mode.

And if we got screwed in the 2025 lottery, we would still have the option to trade Deni right now for an even better return. Deni for Harper would have made a ton of sense.

Also, I think Deni is going to look more like a top 30 player by the end of this season - a fringe All-Star if he was playing in the East. His overall numbers last year may have been top 60-ish, but that was only due to a disastrous first 11 games. Since then, he has played like a top 30-40 player.

[Dat2U]

Substitute Deni on this roster for Bub and Riley for Clayton Jr and suddenly the roster looks play-in caliber. The core would be solid, with upside but maybe a cap on the ceiling with no true star. 35-40 wins feels likely. Losing the 2026 pick feels likely as well but we'd be a young team with a taste of the playoffs in good position to add salary.

To me, the protections owed pick is what that Deni trade was really about and they really wanted shots at both the '25 & '26 drafts. Keeping Deni, who was entering his prime was likely going to get in the way of that in their view. They gambled thinking he would not turn into the star they were hoping to acquire with one of those picks. He's become a top 60 player in book, maybe a little higher but they are gambling by letting him go, they can draft a franchise altering prospect next year that's even better.

Do i agree with it? No, I'm generally against trading away young guys that are midst of significantly improving and showing steady development. Quality wings are so few & far between that guys like Avdija are a premium. Contract was too good. Not saying he was untradeable but that deal disappointed me significantly. I guess I understand it and agree with the idea of doing everything to keep those '25 & '26 picks but I would have tried to go about it another way.

Agreed.

The bottom line is that I think our 2025 pick would have been okay by keeping Deni, but our 2026 pick would definitely be in jeopardy. If we had gotten the Philly slot, our 2025 pick would have actually been higher than where we ended up, and maybe we would have enough talent right now to shift into competitive mode.

And if we got screwed in the 2025 lottery, we would still have the option to trade Deni right now for an even better return. Deni for Harper would have made a ton of sense.

Also, I think Deni is going to look more like a top 30 player by the end of this season - a fringe All-Star if he was playing in the East. His overall numbers last year may have been top 60-ish, but that was only due to a disastrous first 11 games. Since then, he has played like a top 30-40 player.

If they land a top 3 pick this yr, the sting of the Avdija trade is alleviated somewhat, unless he goes on to become a top 20-25 player and Bub never materializes into an NBA starter.

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Deni improved with Portland in '24-25. He had already improved, & he continued to improve.

Part of any negative look-back at the trade inevitably invokes that continued improvement -- how not? One would say, yeah, that improvement looks like what one would have expected of a player who was, after all, still only 23 when the season began!

Fair enough. All the same, that continued improvement was speculative -- it might not have happened. In which case, we'd be looking back at this trade somewhat differently.

Of course, something similar may still happen on the back end of this trade -- as Portland actually delivers the elements we get back. We too might "get lucky." Let's say, to be extreme for a moment, we get a guy w/ the R1 pick who turns out to be as good as... Tobias Harris. & one of the R2 picks gives us a player like Jalen Brunson, while the other one supplies Toumani Camara!

Not likely, you say? How right you are!

But, it could happen, obviously. & until we see what does happen we can't really close the books on this trade. Especially since judging it based on Deni now for Bub so far & Brogdon here & gone... it doesn't look particularly appealing!

[DCZards]

Who is to say that Bub’s improvement by year 3 or 4 won’t mirror that of Deni and that those 2 SRPs the Zards got from Portland weren’t used to acquire Cam Whitmore, who has the potential to be a star.

[nate33]

Who is to say that Bub’s improvement by year 3 or 4 won’t mirror that of Deni and that those 2 SRPs the Zards got from Portland weren’t used to acquire Cam Whitmore, who has the potential to be a star.

Obviously, nobody can predict the future with certainty. You can also say the same thing about the two second round picks or the future Portland pick.

But Deni wasn't traded for Bub or Cam. He was traded for the #14 pick, the 2029 Portland pick and two SRP's. We have a general idea of what those picks are worth on average, and Deni's production last season was worth more than that collection of picks on average.

As PIF put it earlier: if you could trade Bub, Brogdon, the 2029 Portland FRP and two SRP's for Deni right now, would you?

Of course you would. So therefore, the value that we got for Deni was not good.

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Who is to say that Bub’s improvement by year 3 or 4 won’t mirror that of Deni and that those 2 SRPs the Zards got from Portland weren’t used to acquire Cam Whitmore, who has the potential to be a star.

Obviously, nobody can predict the future with certainty. You can also say the same thing about the two second round picks or the future Portland pick.

But Deni wasn't traded for Bub or Cam. He was traded for the #14 pick, the 2029 Portland pick and two SRP's. We have a general idea of what those picks are worth on average, and Deni's production last season was worth more than that collection of picks on average.

As PIF put it earlier: if you could trade Bub, Brogdon, the 2029 Portland FRP and two SRP's for Deni right now, would you?

Of course you would. So therefore, the value that we got for Deni was not good.

Unnnhhhh, close. but no cigar!

It's certainly fair to say that Deni's performance in Portland means that the trade doesn't look as good now as it would look had he not improved. But we still have to see how it all turns out. If we get the next Jimmy Butler w/ that R1 pick, how could the trade be "not good."

Moreover, your "on average" point seems a stretch. If we couldn't know how good the picks would be, had to use the average, we also couldn't know that "Deni's production last season" would continue to improve.

OTOH, the trade for Cam certainly doesn't enter into the equation -- despite Zards' valiant effort to connect it!

For one thing, the two trades were a year apart! We didn't trade Deni for Brogdon, Cam & a R1 pick!

For another, we possessed plenty of R2 picks to use on Cam -- we could have acquired Cam w/o having traded Deni! The one trade did not enable the other.

Plus, we have no idea how good Cam is going to be! Hope he knocks it out of the park, but we do him no favors by acting as if he already has.

[Kanyewest]

Agree -- as above -- except I would say that...

... Just replacing 25-30 Kuzma... minutes a night with Deni minutes adds 3-4 wins by itself....

this is extremely conservative. Adding Deni & Clingan, along w/ Camara's improvement, brought Portland 15 more wins. Over half of that was Deni.

Also Deni got off to a slow start because he was transitioning to the Trail Blazers. He probably would have jumped out of the gate and had a great start for the Wizards since he wouldn't have to make adjustments. Still would have liked to have seen a better return though. In speculation, some were saying that the Celtics wouldn't even trade Derrick White for the #1 pick. It seemed like a low return given the valuation of the draft- given that Castle was the winner of the rookie of the year class- the prediction may be true. The 2028 pick is looking slightly better given the relative state of the Bucks and perhaps the Trail Blazers do not amount to much by then either (the Wizards get the worse of those picks, so they need both to be bad for it to be more valuable).

I will agree though that the trade did secure the Wizards as a bottom feeder. If they were even slightly worse (see Bub Carrington's miracle shot) they may have ended up with Ace Bailey. Time will tell if the Wizards would simply just rather have Tre Johnson anyways. But it also appears that dropping even 1 spot looked significant as of this point of time although we have to wait to see how guys like Fears, Denim, CMB, etc work out- and who the Wizards ultimately would have taken not using 20/20 hindsight.

Random thought, I wonder where Carrington would have gone had the Wizards not taken him.

Another random thought, the Wizards may have gotten a better offer from the Pelicans given that Troy Weaver moved there and did trade for Jordan Poole. They were also widely criticized for trading for Derrick Queen. So basically the Wizards were deprived of a better return and we were deprived of Deni and Derrick Queen pairing (which may have also happened if the Wizards finished significantly better as many are saying).

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This thread is getting fuller & fuller of recondite phantasms.
(which is not meant as criticism, btw; indeed, I am a featured contributor to same!)

[AFM]

You know PIF you took the words right out of my mouth.