Rebuilding the Spurs

[Rustyman]

So on to free agency and the Spurs have a gaping need for bigs as they only have one big man on the roster.

The signing of Kornet immediately addresses the Spurs need for a defensive back-up big man to play 10-15 minutes per game off the bench. He is also paid appropriately at around $10m for that role and he fills the immediate need as someone who can hold up defensively while Wemby sits. Now I don't know if the Spurs had some indication that Kornet was going to sign at the time of the draft but it immediately plugs the backup big gap now better than any rookie would. Some could argue that the Spurs overpaid for Kornet but I am not amongst that group. They needed to get him away from Boston at a price that the Celtics could not and would not match and they did that.

Next was the signing of Olynyk for Branham and Wesley. Also a good signing. He is only contracted for the coming season, he is a stretch big and he will be playable immediately. I can see Olynyk playing more minutes than Kornet as he can fulfill multiple roles but now the Spurs have two different kind of bigs which is what they were looking at with Collins and Bassey but of significantly better quality.

They also signed McLaughlin as a third PG which was needed with the trading of Wesley who I still believe will be a decent NBA rotation player in the future.

So my rating for free agency is an A-.

[Rustyman]

So looking back at the draft after free agency, I am more inclined to rate it as a solid B as the Spurs seemingly had a plan to address their big man deficiency in free agency rather than the draft.

On Carter Bryant, I see what the Spurs saw in him. A highly talented SF prospect who played little in college and in HS but who has the potential to be a starter somewhere down the line. They obviously rated Bryant's talent as being significantly higher than any other big prospect at that point in the draft which I agree with, but which I think does not address an immediate need.

What free agency also told me about the Spurs is that they want to compete NOW. No big man drafted this year would have addressed the immediate need around Wemby. The Spurs obviously feel that they should be a playoff team this coming season and I agree with that assessment. Even without this past off-season, I would have expected the Spurs to achieve 50 wins and a second round playoff appearance. People seem to forget that Fox only played 15 games for the Spurs last year and only 5 with Wemby. The Spurs were on track for 40 wins last year before Wemby went down. I expect them to add 10 to that total with a health Wemby/Fox and the free agents additions.

[Rustyman]

So with all the moves today, lets look at the Spurs guard rotation going into season 25/26:

1. De'Aaron Fox. Will be the starting PG and there should be no discussion about this. He is a proven All Star, coming off a season where injury hampered his performance. It was a hand injury not a lower body injury so he should be good going forward. He also is a score in clutch situations where the Spurs had problems if Wemby had an off night. Plug him in for 32-34 minutes a night and 20 points 7 assists per game. He will also get his extension which hopefully is something like $50m per year for 4 years rather than the full max.

2. Devin Vassell. Yes, I am plugging him in as the starter as SG because he is better than the alternatives for a cohesive starting 5. Harper is unproven, Castle's shooting is unproven and we need shooting in the starting 5. Does not mean Vassell is not tradeable if a better alternative becomes available but for now, he is the best option to start. Also, he started to take defending more seriously last year after finally being disabused of the notion that he was "the man" going forward. He should be getting 30 minutes a night putting up 17-18 points per game with good efficiency numbers and decent defense.

3. Dylan Harper. Yes, I am putting Harper ahead of Castle in the guard rotation as he should be the primary backup at both PG and SG. Yes he will make mistakes, yes he will hopefully be a net neutral rather than a net negative player but I believe he should get time at both guard spots from the get go. I would be looking for him to average 24 minutes a game with 12-14 points, 5 assists on poor efficiency.

4. Stephon Castle. Castle will spend some time at both guard positions but his primary role should be starting SF. I assume he will get around 8 minutes in a guard role and around 20 in the SF role. Currently Castle has the body and game to play SF while his efficiency improves. He will primarily be a defensive stopper but I also expect him to score around 15-17 points per game on much improved efficiency.

5. Jordan McLaughlin. He is in that box labelled, "Break Open in the event of emergency". He shouldn't be playing any significant minutes if the Spurs are doing well.

[imagump1313]

So with all the moves today, lets look at the Spurs guard rotation going into season 25/26:

1. De'Aaron Fox. Will be the starting PG and there should be no discussion about this. He is a proven All Star, coming off a season where injury hampered his performance. It was a hand injury not a lower body injury so he should be good going forward. He also is a score in clutch situations where the Spurs had problems if Wemby had an off night. Plug him in for 32-34 minutes a night and 20 points 7 assists per game. He will also get his extension which hopefully is something like $50m per year for 4 years rather than the full max.

2. Devin Vassell. Yes, I am plugging him in as the starter as SG because he is better than the alternatives for a cohesive starting 5. Harper is unproven, Castle's shooting is unproven and we need shooting in the starting 5. Does not mean Vassell is not tradeable if a better alternative becomes available but for now, he is the best option to start. Also, he started to take defending more seriously last year after finally being disabused of the notion that he was "the man" going forward. He should be getting 30 minutes a night putting up 17-18 points per game with good efficiency numbers and decent defense.

3. Dylan Harper. Yes, I am putting Harper ahead of Castle in the guard rotation as he should be the primary backup at both PG and SG. Yes he will make mistakes, yes he will hopefully be a net neutral rather than a net negative player but I believe he should get time at both guard spots from the get go. I would be looking for him to average 24 minutes a game with 12-14 points, 5 assists on poor efficiency.

4. Stephon Castle. Castle will spend some time at both guard positions but his primary role should be starting SF. I assume he will get around 8 minutes in a guard role and around 20 in the SF role. Currently Castle has the body and game to play SF while his efficiency improves. He will primarily be a defensive stopper but I also expect him to score around 15-17 points per game on much improved efficiency.

5. Jordan McLaughlin. He is in that box labelled, "Break Open in the event of emergency". He shouldn't be playing any significant minutes if the Spurs are doing well.

I like the idea of Castle at SF. As I have said on here before, I dont think he is a PG. He is more of a scorer.

As far as Vassell, I'm not so sure he should be starting. He should be quick points off the bench when needed then get him off the floor before he screws everything up. Too much Vassell sucks the life out of everyone else's offense (And I used to be one of his biggest fans) but he can score in bunches at times.

[Rustyman]

I like the idea of Castle at SF. As I have said on here before, I dont think he is a PG. He is more of a scorer.

As far as Vassell, I'm not so sure he should be starting. He should be quick points off the bench when needed then get him off the floor before he screws everything up. Too much Vassell sucks the life out of everyone else's offense (And I used to be one of his biggest fans) but he can score in bunches at times.

I am not in love with the idea of Vassell as the starting SG but what is the alternative. I want proven scoring from one of the wing positions.

I know, a great alternative would be to start Castle at SG and Champagnie at SF. That would solve the problem.

[imagump1313]

I like the idea of Castle at SF. As I have said on here before, I dont think he is a PG. He is more of a scorer.

As far as Vassell, I'm not so sure he should be starting. He should be quick points off the bench when needed then get him off the floor before he screws everything up. Too much Vassell sucks the life out of everyone else's offense (And I used to be one of his biggest fans) but he can score in bunches at times.

I am not in love with the idea of Vassell as the starting SG but what is the alternative. I want proven scoring from one of the wing positions.

I know, a great alternative would be to start Castle at SG and Champagnie at SF. That would solve the problem.

NNNNOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!

[Rustyman]

So the forwards for season 25/26. We have Castle, Sochan, Barnes, Champagnie, Minix, Bryant, Keldon. Fitting that all into 96 minutes is not possible so it means that a couple of players are going to miss out. This is my starting lineup in order of preference:

1. Castle should be the starting SF playing around 20 mins per game in that role. The reason for this rationale is that Castle, despite his abysmal efficiency last year, is looking like he will be a scorer. He just has a multitude of moves around the rim, in mid-range and at times even from 3 that indicates to me that with any level of improved efficiency (47% from the field, 34% from 3), he will be a competent 15+ points per game scorer. This is assuming that his defense improves to the point where he can be the primary backcourt/wing defender. As Castle should also be getting around 8 minutes at the guard spots, this should be enough time for him. I should note that the idea that Castle is a PG should now disappear with Fox/Harper being the foreseeable PG's for the next decade.

2. Barnes. As much as I would like to put Sochan in this role, the outside shooting of Barnes is essential if you play either Castle or Sochan. In fact, I was annoyed last year by Barnes not shooting more than he did. At times the Spurs desperately needed more scoring and Barnes would defer to other players who were much less capable than him. While Barnes will mainly play the 4, he can at occasion shift to the 3 in big lineups, however, his role would not change at all. At this stage of his career, Barnes there to provide a calm presence, knockdown 3 point shooting and being a connective piece in the 24 minutes per game he should be playing.

3. Sochan. It was really whether the starting paring would be Castle/Barnes or Sochan/Barnes. In the end I went with Castle instead of Sochan as the starter as I believe it will help Castle to develop quicker by being a starter. I still believe Sochan is the better player. Also, when talking about efficiency, just remember that Sochan has better numbers than Castle both from the field in general and from 3 point range. Sochan is also a better defender than Castle at this stage of his career and a more versatile one being able to defend both guards and forwards. Essentially, in the end, I believe that Sochan will not drop off in efficiency by being played off the bench and he should be getting around 30 minutes per night.

4. Keldon. He is in a difficult position currently. Not good enough to be a starter but not efficient enough to be a microwave scorer off the bench. Unless there is an injury elsewhere, I think his minutes drop off and he gets between 18-20 minutes per night. If he could only recapture his 3rd year 3 point shooting, he would solve a lot of problems for the Spurs.

5. Champagnie. He goes from being a starter for the majority of last year to being 3rd string off the bench. He goes to being a 10-15minute bench player when his ideal role would be a 18-20 minute 3&D player. His efficiency is decent enough but if he could lift that by a couple of percentage points in both overall and 3 point shooting, he might be in line for a decent MLE type contract next season, if not from the Spurs, someone else will give him that.

6. Minix, Bryant, will continue to remain largely in the G-League to refine their games, only being called up if there are injuries to the main squad.

[G R E Y]

Read on Twitter

[Rustyman]

Okay, after a health and work break, I will continue this.

On to centers and it is a good time to do so as the Spurs have finally rounded out their center rotation with Biyombo. Let me say at the outset, I always expected the Spurs to draft a veteran backup and Kornet, on the contract he has, is a good choice. However, I wanted the Spurs to pick a developmental big in the 2nd round of the draft as I felt they needed to start looking at someone who could be a long-term backup for Wemby. Obviously, the Spurs could either not pull that off or they didn't want to go in that direction.

So with Wemby. Expectations for him this season are simple. First team NBA, DPOY, lead the Spurs to the 2nd round of the playoffs. His medical issues seem to be resolved and once known, there is a fix for blot clot issues. He also has had the first break he has had in a couple of years so I expect him to be ready going into the season.

Stats are important if this team is to grow so I am going with 34 minutes per game, 27 points on 52/38/88 splits. I don't expect his shot attempts to increase, instead I expect his efficiency to improve. This is important when he is playing with a legitimate scorer in Fox. Also, as Wemby has to have an equal or even greater impact on defense, he cannot simply become a scorer only. I also expect him to lift his rebounding to around 12.5 and blocks to around 4 per game. He should be able to do this as when he tires, Kornet can come in and fill those 12-15 minutes without a too significant drop off.

With Kornet, the expectation is simple, 12-15 minutes a night. Play good defense, rebound and see if his outside shooting can be revived. I also expect him to play with Wemby when the Spurs play teams with a big big like Jokic, Embiid, etc. For the money the Spurs are paying him, I expect Kornet to fill the role we expected from Zack Collings who I never understood why he could not fill that role.

Biyombo is a "break open in event of emergency" player at this stage of his career but he might still be the best matchup with players like Sengun and Sabonis. Smaller skilled interior centers.

[G R E Y]

Okay, after a health and work break, I will continue this.

On to centers and it is a good time to do so as the Spurs have finally rounded out their center rotation with Biyombo. Let me say at the outset, I always expected the Spurs to draft a veteran backup and Kornet, on the contract he has, is a good choice. However, I wanted the Spurs to pick a developmental big in the 2nd round of the draft as I felt they needed to start looking at someone who could be a long-term backup for Wemby. Obviously, the Spurs could either not pull that off or they didn't want to go in that direction.

So with Wemby. Expectations for him this season are simple. First team NBA, DPOY, lead the Spurs to the 2nd round of the playoffs. His medical issues seem to be resolved and once known, there is a fix for blot clot issues. He also has had the first break he has had in a couple of years so I expect him to be ready going into the season.

Stats are important if this team is to grow so I am going with 34 minutes per game, 27 points on 52/38/88 splits. I don't expect his shot attempts to increase, instead I expect his efficiency to improve. This is important when he is playing with a legitimate scorer in Fox. Also, as Wemby has to have an equal or even greater impact on defense, he cannot simply become a scorer only. I also expect him to lift his rebounding to around 12.5 and blocks to around 4 per game. He should be able to do this as when he tires, Kornet can come in and fill those 12-15 minutes without a too significant drop off.

With Kornet, the expectation is simple, 12-15 minutes a night. Play good defense, rebound and see if his outside shooting can be revived. I also expect him to play with Wemby when the Spurs play teams with a big big like Jokic, Embiid, etc. For the money the Spurs are paying him, I expect Kornet to fill the role we expected from Zack Collings who I never understood why he could not fill that role.

Biyombo is a "break open in event of emergency" player at this stage of his career but he might still be the best matchup with players like Sengun and Sabonis. Smaller skilled interior centers.

We also have Canuck Olynyk on board, so it's a good mix of best skill depending on what a situation needs, from lunch pail hard nails effort to bouncy energy on boards to smart passing to 3s. I feel much better about our C rotation this season.

As to Wemby, I agree his game will be both more dynamic and less reliant on him solely which in turn opens up the game for everyone else in either scenario.

I'm excited for this season for the balanced depth we've created on the roster and for Wemby's leap this season.

We've had some important changes to the bench this off-season beyond Mitch being handed the reins by Pop. I hope this gets some attention, too, because there's a fine infusion of talent, and it's nice to be doing the poaching for once rather than getting poached year in year out.

[Rustyman]

On Olynyk, I really think he is a 4/5 hybrid and he is only really playing center in a situation where the Spurs want to play small ball. I think it is much more likely that the plays the 4 with Kornet at the 5 and either Barnes or Keldon at the 3. Like I said earlier, I believe Champagnie will get his minutes but these will be split between the 2/3, especially early in the season when Harper is still injured.

[G R E Y]

Kind of quiet on the Sochan extension front, isn't it?

[Rustyman]

Kind of quiet on the Sochan extension front, isn't it?

I am really puzzled by the Sochan extension. If it was up to me, I would be offering him $20M/season with a player option on the 5th.

However, for Sochan, I don't think his value will drop significantly from that figure unless he gets seriously injured again and he might be better off playing out the season with a Spurs team who at worst will be contending for the play-in. Also, Barnes is due to move to the bench, he might start this year but his optimum position for the Spurs would be first big off the bench.

The problem is that until Sochan can be an average shooter from 3, it almost necessitates Barnes starting as Castle is also a poor shooter so you have to stagger those two. You either have Castle starting or Sochan but not both until they find a reliable outside shot.

It the Spurs make it to the second round of the playoffs this year, I think Sochan gets a minimum of $25M/year from someone and I don't think anyone else on the roster is capable of filling his role for the next couple of years.

Yep, the Spurs have a quandry. They overpaid Vassell and to a lesser extent Keldon but that was under a different Cap situation. In the current environment, it is very difficult to determine what to pay your 4-7th player in the rotation.

[Rustyman]

Now that training camp has started and barring any significant injuries, I think this should be the starting 5 and bench for the first 5-10 games depending on when Fox and Harper return from injury.

PG - Castle, Mclaughlan. While I don't expect to see Castle get many minutes at PG once Fox and Harper return, he is the best choice to start the season.

SG - Vassell, Champagnie, Jones-Garcia. This is Vassell's chance to show he should retain the SG job when Fox returns and that Castle should be pushed to SF instead of replacing him.

SF - Barnes, Keldon, Bryant, Minix. This is a chance for Barnes/Keldon to show who should be starting for the majority of the season and for Bryant, it gives him some unexpected early season minutes. I also think it gives Minix some burn to see if he is a potential replacement next year for Champagnie if Julian gets offers too rich for the Spurs.

PF - Sochan, Olynyk, Wemby. Chance for Sochan to nail down the starting job in a crucial year for him. I expect to see Wemby get some minutes at PF to see how he looks playing with Kornet.

C - Wemby, Kornet, Biyambo. This is why the Spurs signed Kornet, to give the team at the absolute minimum someone who can hold the defense down when Wemby is sitting.

For the non-core minutes, I see Mclaughlan getting some minutes because the Spurs saw something in him last season. I expected him to be cut but they brought him back as the emergency PG. Jones-Garcia will get some minutes to see if he can be that microwave scorer off the bench and if he can fill in some emergency PG minutes. Minix, as explained, the Spurs need to find out if he can become a rotation player.

The rest of the bench are strictly "break open in case of emergency" options.

It is a key year for Champagnie and Sochan as this year's performances will determine what they get paid next year. For Vassell, I think it is his final chance to prove that he is a starting calibre player on a playoff Spurs team.

[G R E Y]

Now that training camp has started and barring any significant injuries, I think this should be the starting 5 and bench for the first 5-10 games depending on when Fox and Harper return from injury.

PG - Castle, Mclaughlan. While I don't expect to see Castle get many minutes at PG once Fox and Harper return, he is the best choice to start the season.

SG - Vassell, Champagnie, Jones-Garcia. This is Vassell's chance to show he should retain the SG job when Fox returns and that Castle should be pushed to SF instead of replacing him.

SF - Barnes, Keldon, Bryant, Minix. This is a chance for Barnes/Keldon to show who should be starting for the majority of the season and for Bryant, it gives him some unexpected early season minutes. I also think it gives Minix some burn to see if he is a potential replacement next year for Champagnie if Julian gets offers too rich for the Spurs.

PF - Sochan, Olynyk, Wemby. Chance for Sochan to nail down the starting job in a crucial year for him. I expect to see Wemby get some minutes at PF to see how he looks playing with Kornet.

C - Wemby, Kornet, Biyambo. This is why the Spurs signed Kornet, to give the team at the absolute minimum someone who can hold the defense down when Wemby is sitting.

For the non-core minutes, I see Mclaughlan getting some minutes because the Spurs saw something in him last season. I expected him to be cut but they brought him back as the emergency PG. Jones-Garcia will get some minutes to see if he can be that microwave scorer off the bench and if he can fill in some emergency PG minutes. Minix, as explained, the Spurs need to find out if he can become a rotation player.

The rest of the bench are strictly "break open in case of emergency" options.

It is a key year for Champagnie and Sochan as this year's performances will determine what they get paid next year. For Vassell, I think it is his final chance to prove that he is a starting calibre player on a playoff Spurs team.

The only thing is the presumed improved 3s shooting of both Castle and Sochan, otherwise it's a lot of pressure on the others when the 1 and 4 are targeted.

If Dev is on the starter's hot seat, what has Sochan done to start or not be on it as well? They're both valuable, but agree they have to prove their worth with competition for spots.

Before Fox and Carter return, I think the starters will be Castle, Dev, Champie, Barnes, Wemby. Big, versatile, defensively responsible, and at least 4 of 5 players are reliable from the arc.

I kind of feel bad for Dev. He was put in unenviable revolving door of roles from 1 to 2 to 3, having to play alongside **** D black hole sieve Branham and Blake who couldn't make a shot. Crazy how much better balanced we are with those two gone. Fewer minutes for 'let's see what they've learned' guys, fewer **** ups, fewer frustrations with teammates who know what the scheme is but watch them mess it up, just a huge relief.

With a steady mostly 2 role, and with a full healthy summer's worth of training and prep, Dev will both not have the pressure to do too much and will have more room to excel in his sweet spots - elbow pull ups, non-paint middies, drives, 3s.

Mitch said he wants us to play fast so hopefully gone will be 15 seconds of dribbling by ISO-happy whoever in favour of run, execute sets crisply, lots of movement and cuts and extra passes.

REALLY looking forward to seeing what *both* of our rookies bring. I know Dylan was rightly hyped as a top tier prospect, but I can't wait to see Carter develop into our long-term starting 3. Crazy thrilled he fell to us.

Practice in day 2 of training camp showed Wemby and Luke sharing the court and some high-low big to big action. So good to have the depth and the options.

[Rustyman]

If Dev is on the starter's hot seat, what has Sochan done to start or not be on it as well? They're both valuable, but agree they have to prove their worth with competition for spots.

Before Fox and Carter return, I think the starters will be Castle, Dev, Champie, Barnes, Wemby. Big, versatile, defensively responsible, and at least 4 of 5 players are reliable from the arc.

This has always been my question, can Castle and Sochan play together. The only reason I proposed that the Spurs do it at the start of the season is that you have definite replacements returning soon.

I think if both Castle and Sochan don't show significant shooting improvement over the first 10 or so games, you have to rejig your lineups to stagger them. The reason I wouldn't start Champagnie is because he is a known quantity. At this stage, I know he is capable of starting, I want to see if others can fill that role as well. Champagnie has been used as a crutch over the past 2 seasons and I think it does him a disservice as he should be a sixth man of the year candidate. A premier 3&D player but the Spurs consistently ask him to do more.

Of the proposed lineup above, I think if you play both Champagnie and Barnes, you give up too much defense and rebounding, that is the only reason I am proposing Sochan starting as I think you have enough shooting with Vassell, Champagnie/Barnes at SF, to play Sochan at PF.

[G R E Y]

Kind of quiet on the Sochan extension front, isn't it?

I am really puzzled by the Sochan extension. If it was up to me, I would be offering him $20M/season with a player option on the 5th.

However, for Sochan, I don't think his value will drop significantly from that figure unless he gets seriously injured again and he might be better off playing out the season with a Spurs team who at worst will be contending for the play-in. Also, Barnes is due to move to the bench, he might start this year but his optimum position for the Spurs would be first big off the bench.

The problem is that until Sochan can be an average shooter from 3, it almost necessitates Barnes starting as Castle is also a poor shooter so you have to stagger those two. You either have Castle starting or Sochan but not both until they find a reliable outside shot.

It the Spurs make it to the second round of the playoffs this year, I think Sochan gets a minimum of $25M/year from someone and I don't think anyone else on the roster is capable of filling his role for the next couple of years.

Yep, the Spurs have a quandry. They overpaid Vassell and to a lesser extent Keldon but that was under a different Cap situation. In the current environment, it is very difficult to determine what to pay your 4-7th player in the rotation.

Jovic just got extended for around $16M/yr for 4 seasons; Kuminga, just over $24M/yr. I'd be surprised if Sochan got less than $20M/yr. But he's not starting and has some nagging tweak type of injuries and has to prove his 3 is legit, at least not hurting us with it even if it's not a feature, just a raised floor. He's a tricky player to slot and evaluate, not a traditional anything except terrific defender.

I wouldn't want to go into the season without an extension done but maybe he's banking on himself. We can always match offers. And we're a great situation to be in. Team does well is usually a financial boost for a player. He can just for on and excel in his wheelhouse rather than doing too much and getting stretched too thin.

Hopefully this gets resolved before the season starts. We finally have some much needed stability and reinforcements and balance. It would suck to have this hanging over our heads, or a guy playing out of scheme, maybe doing too much to stand out to get paid.

[G R E Y]

p.s. We have until the 20th to extend Sochan...

[Rustyman]

At this stage, I just think the Spurs wait until restricted free agency. At the moment, I think the Spurs would probably not exceed 4years/80m, not because I think he isn't worth more, but simply, the availability and his shot. If Sochan accepts that, then the Spurs get another key piece at a reasonable price. For Sochan though, I wonder if he isn't looking to get closer to the Jabari Smith Jr deal which is around $24m/year average.

In comparison, Smith is a better shooter but Sochan is a better defender so this is a realistic comparison. If Sochan is willing to wait, I think he can get close to that $24m average if his shooting and health is better this year but is a $4m/year extra worth the risk of further injury or poor performance.

At this stage, I think Sochan would jump on a 4year/$88m deal and if it gets close to 20th October, I think that is what he will take if it is offered.

[Rustyman]

Now that the pre-season is over, I wonder what expectations other Spurs fans have of the team in this 4th year of the rebuild.

For me, it is 50 win season and second round of the playoffs. Now that might sound overly optimistic but I do think this team has the talent to do it and even more important, the desire and expectation to do it.

No one doubts that the Spurs would have won at least 40 games last year with a healthy Wemby and Fox. This year, I expect more because of the growth of Wemby, Castle, Champagnie and Sochan, the increased depth at big with Kornet and Olynyk and hopefully more consistent Keldon and Devan. That is leaving out any contributions from the rookies.

I think 50 wins and 5th or 6th in the Western Conference is a reasonable expectation. Now I know people are going to say "but what about team X", my response is:

- Thunder and Nuggets are locks for the top 4.
- Rockets: no PG and limited guard depth
- Clippers: old and an injury away from being lottery fodder
- Lakers: Luka is good but their second best player is Lebron and they have no defense
- Warriors: old, injury prone and no real depth
- Wolves: teams have caught up to their bully ball and I think Ant lacks the mental ability to lead a team.

These are the competition for the Spurs. One if not more than one of these teams will falter, the Spurs have to be in position to take that opportunity.