Paradise wrote:MMyhre wrote:Tre Johnson is not comfortable at the NBA level yet. Jeremiah Fears stocks are rising.
And that makes him a better prospect? Based on random preseason games?
Did I say Fears was a better prospect, or did I say Fears has shown better things early on the NBA level?
So you think it's a good sign to struggle in preseason and that it means nothing? I think the good players perform possibly even better in preseason, and the bad players struggle just like normal. SGA has like a 87 % field goal percentage, while Bronny James is at 15 % in the other end of the talent spectrum.
The intensity in preseason has been good, games like Nuggets - Clippers had really nice defensive intensity, so it is not meaningless when we want to evaluate how these players look at NBA level and we start to see more of their personality and trends in their game looking deeper.
If you look at Summer League highlights of both Fears and Johnson, Johnson is hitting a lot of contested jump shots. Those contests turn into blocks against NBA defenders, or tougher contests and it has showed that he hasn't adapted to the physicality and defense at NBA level yet. Fears get's to the rim much easier with his speed and determination, and most of his misses is just him being a bad shooter for now, that can improve but he still get's easier looks and that's a big advantage and he has shown better mentality as I will get into later. In the two games against NBA-level defenders Johnson is 4-17 from the field and 0-4 from 3pt with 2 free throws attempted in 46 minutes. 3 assists, 5 turnovers, 6 fouls. He had a good game when his team was better than the Knicks bench but their backcourt was a G-League guy and retiring washed up Brogdon, and it was just ok 4-7 from fg and 2-4 from 3pt and 3 ast, 0 to when his team was steamrolling behind Bagley. If you compare him to Cooper Flagg who is playing alongside an Hall of Famer he has taken less shots and had much less usage, because Flagg wants the pressure because he knows this will make him better. Johnson has not shown that yet despite playing alongside and against objectively terrible players at times.
Fears started off 3-15 for 7 pts in 22 mins against Melbourne, with 3 assists/5 turnovers and 4 fouls for a -4.
Next game against the same team he goes in 24 min for 12 pts, 5-10 fg, 1-2 3pt, 1-1 ft, 3 ast/2 turnovers. That's what I love to see, that confidence and fearlessness to bounce back that I am not seeing yet from Tre Johnson who looks very timid out there.
Fears put up 20 pts, 8-15 fg, 2-6 3pt, 2-2 ft, 6 reb, 4 ast/3 to, 2 stl and a +4 against the TOUGH tough players of the Houston Rockets after that.
Then he put up 16 pts on 5-12 fg, 1-4 3pt, 5-6 ft, 6 rebm 2 ast/3 to on a -5 against decent players on the Magic, one of the better defensive teams just like the Rockets.
A big part of being successful is your personality and mentality on the court, and Fears has that toughness and determination in his game that I am yet to see from Tre Johnson. If you want to get better, YOU NEED to not be afraid of failing and you need to try and attack and fail a bit and then adjust and get better.
Failing is how you get better, not trying and playing soft like Johnson is and passing to Bub Carrington and letting him do stuff is just not what I want to see from a lottery pick in preseason. I watched his first game, he did not want that ball and those shots, he was playing timid. TAKE RESPONSIBILITY, you are the guy here, you need to want that ball, to want that pressure and sure you are going to **** up a lot, that's part of the process of getting better. Look at LeBron in his rookie season, he had like tons of turnovers, bad shots he failed like a **** out there. And that's how he got so much more experience than timid rookies that are scared to try and fail, and that's how he is possibly the GOAT.
Fears has that, Castle has that, Flagg has that, Harper has that, Nique Clifford has shown some of that as well... Tre Johnson has not yet shown this fearlessness and it frustrates me, because obviously his shooting and outside scoring game is miles above Fears, but you're not going to develop and take the level, get that experience and play better if you play hesitant and scared.
Here is an almost 22 year old rookie lottery pick Dwyane Wade in November 2003:
35.4 min, 14.7 pts on 45.1 ts %, 39.7 fg % on 14.5 fga, 18 % from 3pt for 0,3 makes, 2.9-4 - 72.9 ft %, 4.7 ast/3.6 to and a -3.8 per game, 1.6 stl, 0.6 blk, 4.7 reb.
Terrible player, no future right? He is old for a lottery pick, can't score well, can't shoot well, lots of turnovers, no three ball, bad free throw shooter and all of that as a guard.
Next month he was up to 19 pts on 58.4 ts %, 4.5 ast/2.9 to and just a -1.4 with the same amount of stats overall +/-.
Then he hit a game winner in his first playoff game in the playoffs, and the next series he put up 40.5 min, 21 pts on 56.7 ts %/6.3-8 79.2 ft %, 4 reb, 5.7 ast/4.5, 1,3 stl, 0.5 blk. All of that over 6 games against the best team in the league in the regular season the 61-21 Pacers with the 3rd best defensive rating, Miami was 42-40 in the regular season in comparison.
In the elimination game he put up in 39 min: 24 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast/4 to, 3 stl, 2 blk, 10-16 fg, 4-4 ft on a 67.6 ts % on a +2.
The other guys in his team, EXPERIENCED All NBA and All Star level players had stats like 2 pts in 37 min on 1-9 fg in Caron Butler, Odom 22 pts on 5-17 fg with 0 assists/2 turnovers, Eddie Jones 16 pts on 6-21 fg with 2 assists etc. Brian Grant managed 0 points in 39 minutes with 0 ast/3 turnovers..... like that just shows the level you can get to in just ONE SEASON, from being a big negative player in your first month to totally outperforming All NBA players in the playoffs against the 1# seed in the league in a series they would have won if the others stepped up.
And sure enough, in his next season Wade was an 24.1 pts, 6.8 ast/4.2 to, 1.5 stl, 5.2 reb, 1.1 blk on 56.1 ts % and finished 8th in MVP voting, 21 in DPOY, 2nd team All NBA, All Defensive 2nd team, made the All Star game and would have led the Heat to the finals as their best player if he didn't get injured against the reigning champions the Pistons.
Am I saying Jeremiah Fears is going to become Dwyane Wade? No, but he has that same fearlessness in his approach to the game and that's what you need to be truly great in this league. Being scared to take shots and handle pressure and deferring to **** Bub Carrington who looked like a G-Leaguer in that same game is NOT what you want to see from someone with the ability of Tre Johnson.
A huge part of becoming a star in this league is your mentality, and he has shown a lack of it SO FAR, he can still do better of course but it's a bad start.
So that's one thing I am looking at in rookies, and the other one is that Tre Johnson is slow, a lot slower than Fears and he is weak as well. That's a problem, because now you are getting bullied on ball, off ball and you can't get to the rim or your spots as easy as Fears does. How do you compensate for that? By being tough and determined and thinking faster/ahead of what you want to do on court, you need resilience and so far he hasn't showed that and it's a real concern until I see the opposite. He had low % of shots at the rim in just college, so the one thing I do not want to see is more hesitation and fear of going at people and taking on the pressure when the level gets higher, because then will you just fall apart like he did in these games and you will be a guy who only takes contested jump shots, contested tough shots in general and with bad playmaking, a high amount of turnovers, a low amount of higher % shots at the rim, less free throw attempts, bad defensive impact, you are looking at a pretty terrible NBA player. I am not saying he will be, but that's how he is going to look if he isn't more aggressive and determined out on court.
If your offensive game is solely reliant on just tough, contested jump shots from long range you are not going to be an impactful offensive player in most cases. Even if he did hit more of these contested shots, you would still want more shots closer to the rim, short mid-range, floaters, shots at the rim, free throws and more playmaking to gradually become a more impactful offensive player. The problem is that he did not get a lot of these easy shots in college despite having a very high usage. For comparison, another non-great finisher near the rim in the NBA, Trae Young, was at the same amount of 2pt shots like Johnson in college, 9,1 attempts, but made 49.3 % of them compared to Johnsons 44.9 % because he got layups and had the ability to get to the rim so he got more free throws as well, while Johnson takes long two's which are the toughest and statistically worst shot in basketball. You don't want a player that relies on long twos as your best offensive player in the NBA, as it's inefficient and unless you are a Star level player they will be unreliable offense as well which takes time to develop. Trae Young wound up finishing an okay 56.2 % at the rim and he got there a lot. Rookie Kemba Walker for comparison got there much less and had just 50 %, rookie Westbrook got there a lot and finished a terrible 47.6 %.
He is compared to Beal a lot, and they had the exact same combine speed, but Johnson is bigger and longer by a decent margin, Beal got to the rim very little (2.1 times per game) finished decent at 59.5 %, but got to the line very little 2.8, and took too many long jumpers 291 to 121 at the rim and made just 38.4 % of them. His three ball was already decent so he had 38.6 % from there, but was terrible from 3-16 feet and shot a lot of long tough two pointers so he ended up on 13.9 pts on a terrible 51.5 ts % despite already being a good 3pt shooter.
So if Johnson does similar stuff to Beal, ending up with very low rim % shots, a lot of twos and maybe he does not even hit his threes at the level Beal did, he will be terrible in his first season. It all depends, he has a long wingspan and decent height compared to Beal, so we will see if he will be assertive and have good shot selection, the problem is that he did NOT in college, so why would that become better in the NBA? And he did not show this in preseason either, so until he proves otherwise I am on the skeptical side at least for his rookie season.
Another thing is that the Wizards are a mess, CJ McCollum and Middleton are out there chucking up shots just to show that they are not washed up, Sarr is trying to figure it out, Kyshawn George is trying to figure it out blabla. So when he is not being determined and taking his spot, standing his ground and saying give me the ball I want the responsibility, then he will get the ball less and develop slower than a Fears who wants the ball, takes the ball and makes stuff happen even if he will have misses and turnovers. Then he develops faster and improves faster because of this, unless he has no talent like some players but that will show fast in a couple of months.
And no, I am not saying Tre Johnson is done based on preseason games, but I have seen some signals from him that I don't want to see from a player of his talent level, and I hope he turns it around. Until he does, it's going to be a disappointing rookie season because you can't be scared of the intensity of the NBA. I had him as one of the favorites until I watched that first game and the Wizards situation, I haven't been able to see the other games so maybe he is playing tougher but we'll have to wait and see. I have Fears and others above him in the rookie race until Johnson shows some mentality out there and starts having more self-belief in his game and himself, because that's just as important as your skill to get better.
. So we're all sleeping on the #2 pick because a realgm pool didn't have him top 5 in the thread poll? 
