Come the hell on, Luka had a higher +/- because the Celtics had already beaten the Mavs and didn't give a crap about game 4. It was the most gentlemanly sweep in history. Went back to Boston and smacked Dallas in front of the home crowd.
Tatum
+19
+6
-4
-33
+18
Luka
-10
-3
+9
+30
-19
Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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eminence
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
I bought a boat.
Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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Cavsfansince84
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
LA Bird wrote:I feel like the Tatum argument is kind of inconsistent. He doesn't have the best box scores so his supporters go the impact route instead (which is totally fine) but then they pick a year when his impact numbers wasn't actually that great just because he won a ring. His 2 year RAPM has dropped from top 5 to around 25 the last couple seasons and if we remove low leverage possessions,
2022 Tatum: +11.0 on, -2.1 off
2024 Tatum: +12.1 on, +15.1 off
The Celtics became very dominant because they upgraded their roster, not because of some massive leap in performance during Tatum's minutes. People cite Boston having the highest raw ORtg in history to support Tatum but leave out the part that they had a 131 ORtg in the games he missed (7-1 record, +11 SRS). In the Finals, he scored a lower percent of his team's points than Jason Kidd did, on 7% worse TS relative to his teammates. Tatum was only +3.8 offense for the entire title run. Despite losing the series, Luka had a higher +/- than Tatum in the Finals and almost everyone other than eminence (who had him #1) ranked Luka higher in 2024 POY. I am fine with Tatum making top 25 but going first now feels too early to me.
For the most part I agree with this. Nothing against Tatum, but I just don't think he peaked that high and if 2024 hadn't happened with one of the most stacked starting units of all time I don't think he'd have much of any argument whatsoever for inclusion yet. I think a few people are just sort of in love with this idea of him being a player with no weaknesses but I don't agree with that assessment either. Just ask any Celtics fan who watches most of their games and I think they will tell you what they are. Which is not necessarily things that show up in box scores but he relies too much on long 3's, doesn't attack that much and can have questionable decision making towards the end of games. It wasn't that long ago people were arguing the 2024 Celtics as a top 5 team of all time and that was with a guy who we are clearly saying wasn't a top 16 peak since 2000 leading them. Then there's also the pretty weak competition they faced in those playoffs which tends to bolster things like +/-. Just giving my .02 on why I'm not that high on him. If I had to pick between him and Luka to win a 7 games series I definitely would not pick Tatum. He's still very good but I don't think he's top 20. More 21-25. I also think he might be getting exaggerated defensive ratings here.
Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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One_and_Done
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
1. Luka (2022)
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)
HM: Tatum, Dwight
In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.
In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.
Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.
Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%
Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%
It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.
As for Jimmy, he is giving you enough of Kobe’s scoring, on better efficiency, but is supplementing that with elite D, and a vastly better floor game, that just leads to more winning. I’m not entirely sure why we’d focus on things like “ppg” in 1 series is a sensible response.
Sometimes stats aren’t everything, because volume stats can’t always capture the impact a guy is having. That said, when you look at say Jimmy Butler’s 2022 playoffs it looks better than Kobe’s 09 playoffs.
Butler 22 PS per 100: 38/10/6, on 604 TS%
Kobe 09 PS per 100: 39/7/7, on 564 TS%
Even raw numbers, which don’t capture Butler’s D and floor game, seem to favour him.
Butler’s absurd carry jobs are being too quickly forgotten. All three of his playoff runs, in 20, 22, and 23, were absurd. He took a starting group of Gabe Vincent, Max Struss, old Kevin Love, and Bam, to the finals. That’s ridiculous.
Butler’s impact on those teams is borne out by the win loss record also. From 20-23 the Heat were 144-81 with Butler, and only 37-41 without him. I’m going with 2023 Butler to account for injuries, even though he was a bit banged up by the finals, just because 64/82 games is enough, given all he did in the playoffs. His 2020 health is better than you think too, given there was a shorter season, he actually played 58/73 games.
Butler’s stats don’t jump off the page as some do, although as I noted above he sure looks comparable to someone like Kobe per 100, but his impact does. Stats don’t always capture stuff like your floor game, or defence, or the little things like intangibles, but it was very clear Jimmy had all those.
My last 2 places are for T-Mac and AD, but open to being persuaded otherwise (for actual superstar candidates, not role players).
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)
HM: Tatum, Dwight
In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.
In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.
Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.
Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%
Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%
It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.
As for Jimmy, he is giving you enough of Kobe’s scoring, on better efficiency, but is supplementing that with elite D, and a vastly better floor game, that just leads to more winning. I’m not entirely sure why we’d focus on things like “ppg” in 1 series is a sensible response.
Sometimes stats aren’t everything, because volume stats can’t always capture the impact a guy is having. That said, when you look at say Jimmy Butler’s 2022 playoffs it looks better than Kobe’s 09 playoffs.
Butler 22 PS per 100: 38/10/6, on 604 TS%
Kobe 09 PS per 100: 39/7/7, on 564 TS%
Even raw numbers, which don’t capture Butler’s D and floor game, seem to favour him.
Butler’s absurd carry jobs are being too quickly forgotten. All three of his playoff runs, in 20, 22, and 23, were absurd. He took a starting group of Gabe Vincent, Max Struss, old Kevin Love, and Bam, to the finals. That’s ridiculous.
Butler’s impact on those teams is borne out by the win loss record also. From 20-23 the Heat were 144-81 with Butler, and only 37-41 without him. I’m going with 2023 Butler to account for injuries, even though he was a bit banged up by the finals, just because 64/82 games is enough, given all he did in the playoffs. His 2020 health is better than you think too, given there was a shorter season, he actually played 58/73 games.
Butler’s stats don’t jump off the page as some do, although as I noted above he sure looks comparable to someone like Kobe per 100, but his impact does. Stats don’t always capture stuff like your floor game, or defence, or the little things like intangibles, but it was very clear Jimmy had all those.
My last 2 places are for T-Mac and AD, but open to being persuaded otherwise (for actual superstar candidates, not role players).
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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iggymcfrack
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
1. 2005 Manu Ginobili
Last season left for a player who was best in the league at their peak. Manu led the league in PI RS+PS RAPM from the 97-14 sample and from nbarapm.com he was 2nd in 2 year RAPM in 2005 and first in 2006 and 2007. Elevated tremendously in the playoffs where the efficiency gap between him and his co-stars was larger than the gap between Shaq and Kobe as he scored at a tremendous +13.2 rTS%. Played comparable minutes to other stars the last 15 games of the playoffs when he was starting.
2. 2016 Draymond Green
Much better impact stats than anyone left except for Manu and arguably better than Manu as well. Best on/off of all-time, best plus/minus of all-time, and best Game 7 in Finals history. When Steph Curry was hurt, Draymond led the team to a +137 point differential across 8 playoff games while he was on the floor and averaged close to 20 PPG on good efficiency while clearly being the best defensive player in the league by a huge margin AND the team's top facilitator.
3. 2017 Russell Westbrook
Deserved MVP season where he hit a ton of clutch buzzer beaters and averaged 32/11/10 on the best efficency of his career, leading the league in scoring while playing 81 of 82 games. Had a positive net rating in the playoffs even as his team played at -60.1 per 100 possessions in his brief moments of rest while carrying a huge load. His 2016 and 2017 seasons are the best 2 seasons by DARKO of any player who hasn't been selected yet with only Duncan, KG, LeBron, CP3, Curry, Dirk, Shaq, Jokic, Giannis, and Wade peaking higher.
4. 2020 Anthony Davis
The regular season impact stats aren't as high as the rest of the group, but he was an all-time efficient scorer while having a strong argument for defensive player of the year and also passing the ball well. In the playoffs, he had a 8.7 BPM on .665 TS%, led all players in WS/48, and had a significantly better on/off than LeBron who was pretty much unanimously considered POY other than a few people who would choose Davis.
Last season left for a player who was best in the league at their peak. Manu led the league in PI RS+PS RAPM from the 97-14 sample and from nbarapm.com he was 2nd in 2 year RAPM in 2005 and first in 2006 and 2007. Elevated tremendously in the playoffs where the efficiency gap between him and his co-stars was larger than the gap between Shaq and Kobe as he scored at a tremendous +13.2 rTS%. Played comparable minutes to other stars the last 15 games of the playoffs when he was starting.
2. 2016 Draymond Green
Much better impact stats than anyone left except for Manu and arguably better than Manu as well. Best on/off of all-time, best plus/minus of all-time, and best Game 7 in Finals history. When Steph Curry was hurt, Draymond led the team to a +137 point differential across 8 playoff games while he was on the floor and averaged close to 20 PPG on good efficiency while clearly being the best defensive player in the league by a huge margin AND the team's top facilitator.
3. 2017 Russell Westbrook
Deserved MVP season where he hit a ton of clutch buzzer beaters and averaged 32/11/10 on the best efficency of his career, leading the league in scoring while playing 81 of 82 games. Had a positive net rating in the playoffs even as his team played at -60.1 per 100 possessions in his brief moments of rest while carrying a huge load. His 2016 and 2017 seasons are the best 2 seasons by DARKO of any player who hasn't been selected yet with only Duncan, KG, LeBron, CP3, Curry, Dirk, Shaq, Jokic, Giannis, and Wade peaking higher.
4. 2020 Anthony Davis
The regular season impact stats aren't as high as the rest of the group, but he was an all-time efficient scorer while having a strong argument for defensive player of the year and also passing the ball well. In the playoffs, he had a 8.7 BPM on .665 TS%, led all players in WS/48, and had a significantly better on/off than LeBron who was pretty much unanimously considered POY other than a few people who would choose Davis.
Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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70sFan
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
17. 2019/20 Anthony Davis (HM: 2022/23, 2017/18)
It's one of the hardest, if not the hardest player to rank for me. Davis is theoretically a perfect player to thrive on my list, as I love two-way bigs (showed by very high ranking of Duncan, Garnett and Giannis in this project). He also has a very consistent pattern of improving his game in the postseason, which I also value heavily.
I just can't find any justification to put him higher due to the RS data we have from his whole career. Davis is the kind of player whose RS boxscore numbers heavily overvalue his actual impact. He's not good enough defensively on consistent basis to be a one-man defense like Duncan or Garnett and his offense is heavily reliant on guards creating for him, not the other way around. It's very clear when you look at his impact metrics, WOWY numbers etc. Davis just wasn't MVP-level player in the RS.
This is when his postseason translation comes to play. He can't lead the team to top tier results by himself, but if you give him a good playmaker and smart coach, he becomes extremely valuable in postseason setting. His defensive versatility allows him to play basically any scheme you want, him playing off perimeter creators creates very natural fit and his off-ball rim pressure opens up the game a little bit more in rough moments.
I also don't think too much about shooting variance here. When I am not sure about it, I just look at the other top seasons of considered player and think if I push him that high (or close to it) without outlier sample. Davis is tough, because he doesn't have many great RS performances, but I'd definitely consider 2018 Davis at this point and if I look at his 2023 postseason run, it can compete with anyone left in my opinion. 2020 is even better than that, but I scale it a little bit and that gives me Davis at 17th spot in the end.
18. 2020/21 Joel Embiid (HM: 2022/23)
The hardest player to rank for obvious reasons. I decided to go with 2020/21. Even with the injuries and disappointing end of the Hawks series, I think that Embiid is more valuable than anyone else left. I wish I had more time to do some deep dive on his defensive abilities, but I am fine with younger version. 2023 Embiid is still a good rim protector, but he was very sluggish outside the paint.
19. 2023/24 Luka Doncic
By far the best offensive player left. Had he been a little better defensively, I could convince myself to put him at the top of the ballot, but for now he ends at the edge of top 20.
20. 2015/16 Draymond Green (HM: 2016/17)
Most people acknowledged his remarkable impact and non-boxscore value, so I'll just say that I feel obligated to put the best defensive player of his generation inside top 20. I thought about Howard and Gobert over him, but in the end I went with the most proven playoff performer here.
It's one of the hardest, if not the hardest player to rank for me. Davis is theoretically a perfect player to thrive on my list, as I love two-way bigs (showed by very high ranking of Duncan, Garnett and Giannis in this project). He also has a very consistent pattern of improving his game in the postseason, which I also value heavily.
I just can't find any justification to put him higher due to the RS data we have from his whole career. Davis is the kind of player whose RS boxscore numbers heavily overvalue his actual impact. He's not good enough defensively on consistent basis to be a one-man defense like Duncan or Garnett and his offense is heavily reliant on guards creating for him, not the other way around. It's very clear when you look at his impact metrics, WOWY numbers etc. Davis just wasn't MVP-level player in the RS.
This is when his postseason translation comes to play. He can't lead the team to top tier results by himself, but if you give him a good playmaker and smart coach, he becomes extremely valuable in postseason setting. His defensive versatility allows him to play basically any scheme you want, him playing off perimeter creators creates very natural fit and his off-ball rim pressure opens up the game a little bit more in rough moments.
I also don't think too much about shooting variance here. When I am not sure about it, I just look at the other top seasons of considered player and think if I push him that high (or close to it) without outlier sample. Davis is tough, because he doesn't have many great RS performances, but I'd definitely consider 2018 Davis at this point and if I look at his 2023 postseason run, it can compete with anyone left in my opinion. 2020 is even better than that, but I scale it a little bit and that gives me Davis at 17th spot in the end.
18. 2020/21 Joel Embiid (HM: 2022/23)
The hardest player to rank for obvious reasons. I decided to go with 2020/21. Even with the injuries and disappointing end of the Hawks series, I think that Embiid is more valuable than anyone else left. I wish I had more time to do some deep dive on his defensive abilities, but I am fine with younger version. 2023 Embiid is still a good rim protector, but he was very sluggish outside the paint.
19. 2023/24 Luka Doncic
By far the best offensive player left. Had he been a little better defensively, I could convince myself to put him at the top of the ballot, but for now he ends at the edge of top 20.
20. 2015/16 Draymond Green (HM: 2016/17)
Most people acknowledged his remarkable impact and non-boxscore value, so I'll just say that I feel obligated to put the best defensive player of his generation inside top 20. I thought about Howard and Gobert over him, but in the end I went with the most proven playoff performer here.
Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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70sFan
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
Voting results
Votes:
Number of voters: 12
Best Kemeny score:
Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #15-#16 Spots:
#17. 2015/16 Draymond Green
#18. 2004/05 Manu Ginobili
Votes:
Spoiler:
Number of voters: 12
Best Kemeny score:
Spoiler:
Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #15-#16 Spots:
#17. 2015/16 Draymond Green
#18. 2004/05 Manu Ginobili
Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
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Doctor MJ
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Re: Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #17-#18 Spots
Wow, possibly really unfortunate I lost track of this. Glad my top 2 picks made it, but would it have flipped if I had voted? 
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