Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[brwnman]

Varsho had a great season and had a pivotal HR when the rest of the team couldn't hit a beach ball to get the Jays a division win. This effect cannot be understated. Based on the season and his ability to hit some clutch HRs, I understand why he wasn't moved down in the lineup but along with Lukes likely should have. Dodgers changed things up more moving up Smith for Betts for instance and their moves paid off.

The noodle arm made it much too easy to score on sac flies. The Bassitt run in particular, the throw looked awful.

The DRS only makes a difference when it does. It did in game 7 but so did the lack of hits and noodle arm. That being said, congrats to him on his great season.

Varsho had a great season and had a pivotal HR when the rest of the team couldn't hit a beach ball to get the Jays a division win. This effect cannot be understated. Based on the season and his ability to hit some clutch HRs, I understand why he wasn't moved down in the lineup but along with Lukes likely should have. Dodgers changed things up more moving up Smith for Betts for instance and their moves paid off.

The noodle arm made it much too easy to score on sac flies. The Bassitt run in particular, the throw looked awful.

The DRS only makes a difference when it does. It did in game 7 but so did the lack of hits and noodle arm. That being said, congrats to him on his great season.

Very low bar for a ‘great season.’ Barely played this season and the Jays had their best stretch when he wasn’t playing.

And it’s not just a noodle arm, it’s the worst arm in ML history for the OF. That pop up that he tried to throw home, if Teo took 2nd, dodgers would have had another run. That dive that saved a run, he could have given up 2 right after because of his arm.

And he was generally not great in the field in the playoffs. Way too many balls he couldn’t get to in the gap because he got poor reads.

On top of that, take away every hit, homer and rbi from Varsho. Jays don’t lose a single game that they won. He had 0 impact on winning in the post season. We already know he’s the singular biggest reason why they lost, but you replace him with the worst regular starting CF in the league and the Jays likely win the WS.

[mathgeek]

Varsho is hot and cold offensively, it's either boom or bust for him really. But he was our best defender last night. He doesn't make the diving catch and you have 2 runs in. The issue here is that okay maybe Schneider should have moved him down the lineup. How is that Varshos problem. Even from a managerial perspective its a very tough call because you want to try and give your batters confidence. Especially someone who has the potential to be a good bat.

[JaysRule25]

Varsho's catch was definitely amazing, but I think he also gave up a run with his throw. Looking at the run Bassitt gave up, that sac fly seemed pretty shallow. Is it just me or would most other centre fielders have had a shot to get that runner?

I know Varsho is coming off surgery and has a bum shoulder. I wonder if that's a concern going forward.

[PowerPlant1]

248 at bats with an 832 ops and 20 HR is not a small sample size to say he had a great season. If that's not enough at bats for a great season with all his DRS included, I don't know what is.

[brwnman]

Varsho is hot and cold offensively, it's either boom or bust for him really. But he was our best defender last night. He doesn't make the diving catch and you have 2 runs in. The issue here is that okay maybe Schneider should have moved him down the lineup. How is that Varshos problem. Even from a managerial perspective its a very tough call because you want to try and give your batters confidence. Especially someone who has the potential to be a good bat.

If he takes it on a hop, it’s one run.

If he could throw like an average fielder, sac fly doesn’t come up.

Net - 0 runs.

And he wasn’t our best defender last night, that was Vladdy. Varsho hasn’t been good defensively in the post season. He had 1 amazing catch (last night) and one good catch earlier in the post season. He allowed a lot to fall, namely that ohtani double that he didn’t read and in the Seattle series.

We’ve been waiting 3 years for this potential bat to be good, it hasn’t happened. But I guess there’s always year 4.

[brwnman]

248 at bats with an 832 ops and 20 HR is not a small sample size to say he had a great season. If that's not enough at bats for a great season with all his DRS included, I don't know what is.

It’s an extremely small sample size. Especially when you consider he gets hot for 2-3 weeks at a time and goes dormant for 3 months. His 3 year tenure with the jays.. he’s still a below average hitter.

DRS doesn’t take into account all the runs he gave up with his arm which was twice the amount he “saved.”

[brwnman]

248 at bats with an 832 ops and 20 HR is not a small sample size to say he had a great season. If that's not enough at bats for a great season with all his DRS included, I don't know what is.

It’s an extremely small sample size. Especially when you consider he gets hot for 2-3 weeks at a time and goes dormant for 3 months. His 3 year tenure with the jays.. he’s still a below average hitter.

DRS doesn’t take into account all the runs he gave up with his arm which was twice the amount he “saved.”

And if you take take 248 ABs as "not a small sample size," then his last 119 ABs in the regular season (which would be about half his regular season), he had a slash of .227/.260/.471. Add in 75 ABs in the playoffs, he had a slash line of .227/.284/.427 in close to the same amount of ABs as your sample. See how he was only getting worse or better yet, regressing to the mean ... the player he's always been.

[Duffman100]

I know as a true fan, the first thing I do after a gut wrenching loss is troll someone for liking a player on the team.

[s e n s i]

varsho absolutely killed us this series

there’s no two ways about it

but please give me varsho every day over the light hitting gabbie moreno whose diamondbacks have never made it that far in the playoffs, and never will as long as he is their catcher.

moreno in the 2023 postseason - 101 wRC+
varsho in the 2025 postseason - 110 wRC+
kirk in the 2025 postseason - 129 wRC+

despite the horrid execution of both varsho and kirk last night, still would rather have both of them in October over “gabriel moreno”

[PowerPlant1]

248 at bats with an 832 ops and 20 HR is not a small sample size to say he had a great season. If that's not enough at bats for a great season with all his DRS included, I don't know what is.

It’s an extremely small sample size. Especially when you consider he gets hot for 2-3 weeks at a time and goes dormant for 3 months. His 3 year tenure with the jays.. he’s still a below average hitter.

DRS doesn’t take into account all the runs he gave up with his arm which was twice the amount he “saved.”

Where do you get the twice as much? Baseball savant lists his fielding value at 84 out of 100. Overall a net positive. Range 95, arm value 23. Yes the discrepancy. A concern moving forward but overall net positive.

I didn't say his Jays career was great. 248 ab is small for a career. Why expand to career when you are arguing he didn't have a great season?

Yes, the pattern in the last 2 seasons were the hot streaks. He broke that pattern for 248 ab this season and had a pivotal HR when the Jays were scuffling.

Vlad had a full season at 589 ab. Varsho's is 42% of that. Not small.

[brwnman]

I know as a true fan, the first thing I do after a gut wrenching loss is troll someone for liking a player on the team.

Who’s trolling?

Like whoever you want. Criticism is valid.

[brwnman]

varsho absolutely killed us this series

there’s no two ways about it

but please give me varsho every day over the light hitting gabbie moreno whose diamondbacks have never made it that far in the playoffs, and never will as long as he is their catcher.

moreno in the 2023 postseason - 101 wRC+
varsho in the 2025 postseason - 110 wRC+
kirk in the 2025 postseason - 129 wRC+

despite the horrid execution of both varsho and kirk last night, still would rather have both of them in October over “gabriel moreno”

‘Never made it that far’ - literally made it to the WS his first year. Just full of lies and bad takes.

‘Postseason wRC+’ LOL - what was his wRC+ in the last 16 games of this postseason?

[brwnman]

248 at bats with an 832 ops and 20 HR is not a small sample size to say he had a great season. If that's not enough at bats for a great season with all his DRS included, I don't know what is.

It’s an extremely small sample size. Especially when you consider he gets hot for 2-3 weeks at a time and goes dormant for 3 months. His 3 year tenure with the jays.. he’s still a below average hitter.

DRS doesn’t take into account all the runs he gave up with his arm which was twice the amount he “saved.”

Where do you get the twice as much? Baseball savant lists his fielding value at 84 out of 100. Overall a net positive. Range 95, arm value 23. Yes the discrepancy. A concern moving forward but overall net positive.

I didn't say his Jays career was great. 248 ab is small for a career. Why expand to career when you are arguing he didn't have a great season?

Yes, the pattern in the last 2 seasons were the hot streaks. He broke that pattern for 248 ab this season and had a pivotal HR when the Jays were scuffling.

Vlad had a full season at 589 ab. Varsho's is 42% of that. Not small.

He didn’t break the pattern. He just didn’t have a full seasons worth of ABs for regression. If 42% isn’t bad, then 119/248 is 47% of ABs this season (most of his regular season). And add in playoffs and it goes up to 78% of his total ABs in the regular season. In those at bats, he was close to a similar player that he has been with the Jays.

[brwnman]

varsho absolutely killed us this series

there’s no two ways about it

but please give me varsho every day over the light hitting gabbie moreno whose diamondbacks have never made it that far in the playoffs, and never will as long as he is their catcher.

moreno in the 2023 postseason - 101 wRC+
varsho in the 2025 postseason - 110 wRC+
kirk in the 2025 postseason - 129 wRC+

despite the horrid execution of both varsho and kirk last night, still would rather have both of them in October over “gabriel moreno”

‘Never made it that far’ - literally made it to the WS his first year. Just full of lies and bad takes.

‘Postseason wRC+’ LOL - what was his wRC+ in the last 16 games of this postseason?

In case you need help, 17 total bases in those 16 games.

[PowerPlant1]

It’s an extremely small sample size. Especially when you consider he gets hot for 2-3 weeks at a time and goes dormant for 3 months. His 3 year tenure with the jays.. he’s still a below average hitter.

DRS doesn’t take into account all the runs he gave up with his arm which was twice the amount he “saved.”

Where do you get the twice as much? Baseball savant lists his fielding value at 84 out of 100. Overall a net positive. Range 95, arm value 23. Yes the discrepancy. A concern moving forward but overall net positive.

I didn't say his Jays career was great. 248 ab is small for a career. Why expand to career when you are arguing he didn't have a great season?

Yes, the pattern in the last 2 seasons were the hot streaks. He broke that pattern for 248 ab this season and had a pivotal HR when the Jays were scuffling.

Vlad had a full season at 589 ab. Varsho's is 42% of that. Not small.

He didn’t break the pattern. He just didn’t have a full seasons worth of ABs for regression. If 42% isn’t bad, then 119/248 is 47% of ABs this season (most of his regular season). And add in playoffs and it goes up to 78% of his total ABs in the regular season. In those at bats, he was close to a similar player that he has been with the Jays.

He broke the 2-3 week pattern of hot starts followed by fizzling out that you described. So yes he broke 'the pattern' this year as he just didn't have a hot start followed by miserable #s as in the past 2 seasons.

You keep moving the goal posts. He doesn't have to break the pattern by having a full season worth of ABs. To break a 2-3 week hot start pattern followed by poor #s, he just has to have better #s that carry over 2-3 weeks. 248 ab is much longer than 2-3 weeks. You don't make sense when arguing the fizzling out pattern is still intact when he's nearly played half a season.

[brwnman]

varsho absolutely killed us this series

there’s no two ways about it

but please give me varsho every day over the light hitting gabbie moreno whose diamondbacks have never made it that far in the playoffs, and never will as long as he is their catcher.

moreno in the 2023 postseason - 101 wRC+
varsho in the 2025 postseason - 110 wRC+
kirk in the 2025 postseason - 129 wRC+

despite the horrid execution of both varsho and kirk last night, still would rather have both of them in October over “gabriel moreno”

‘Never made it that far’ - literally made it to the WS his first year. Just full of lies and bad takes.

‘Postseason wRC+’ LOL - what was his wRC+ in the last 16 games of this postseason?

In case you need help, 17 total bases in those 16 games.

Moreno in 2023 Postseason
.749 OPS with a 0.238 WPA (4 homers from the light hitting Moreno)

Varsho in 2025 postseason
.711 OPS with a -0.424 (3 homers in more ABs)

With those numbers, I can really see why you'd rather have Varsho, stay losing.

[brwnman]

Where do you get the twice as much? Baseball savant lists his fielding value at 84 out of 100. Overall a net positive. Range 95, arm value 23. Yes the discrepancy. A concern moving forward but overall net positive.

I didn't say his Jays career was great. 248 ab is small for a career. Why expand to career when you are arguing he didn't have a great season?

Yes, the pattern in the last 2 seasons were the hot streaks. He broke that pattern for 248 ab this season and had a pivotal HR when the Jays were scuffling.

Vlad had a full season at 589 ab. Varsho's is 42% of that. Not small.

He didn’t break the pattern. He just didn’t have a full seasons worth of ABs for regression. If 42% isn’t bad, then 119/248 is 47% of ABs this season (most of his regular season). And add in playoffs and it goes up to 78% of his total ABs in the regular season. In those at bats, he was close to a similar player that he has been with the Jays.

He broke the 2-3 week pattern of hot starts followed by fizzling out that you described. So yes he broke 'the pattern' this year as he just didn't have a hot start followed by miserable #s as in the past 2 seasons.

You keep moving the goal posts. He doesn't have to break the pattern by having a full season worth of ABs. To break a 2-3 week hot start pattern followed by poor #s, he just has to have better #s that carry over 2-3 weeks. 248 ab is much longer than 2-3 weeks. You don't make sense when arguing the fizzling out pattern is still intact when he's nearly played half a season.

Who's moving goal posts? I think you're just missing it where he missed a chunk of games after he came into the season late. He struggled, was hot, missed time. Came back hot, and then regressed again. It's the same pattern and we're talking about a season where he played less than half the season.

If you really want to dive in, and look who he homered against and where/when he played - it'll become even less impressive. The series against Colorado (literally no ML talent on that pitching staff) and the entire team tee'd off and Cincinnati and their Mickey Mouse ballpark... take those away you'll see how ... not great his less than half season was.

[PushDaRock]

Finally some closure. Varsho and Kirk on the way to the WS.

Closure.

What they gonna say now?

Did we watch the same game? I saw Varsho prevent numerous runs with his glove tonight. And I don't think you understand what closure means. It was decided upon two weeks ago that the trade was a win. Incredible season with Kirk and Varsho trending up. Moreno, unfortunately seems to have stagnated and has been unable to address his power issues.

Moreno was really good this year and he hit for a bit more power this season. His HR/PA was right on par with Kirk actually. He was limited by injuries but a 2.7 WAR in 309 PA is really good. Kirk's lack of speed really hurt us at times in this series. I mean you even saw them pitch around Barger for the potential GIDP against Kirk than won them the game.

[PushDaRock]

Varsho's catch was definitely amazing, but I think he also gave up a run with his throw. Looking at the run Bassitt gave up, that sac fly seemed pretty shallow. Is it just me or would most other centre fielders have had a shot to get that runner?

I know Varsho is coming off surgery and has a bum shoulder. I wonder if that's a concern going forward.

His noodle arm is quite frustrating. Have to hope it gets better and isn't a complete liability going forward.

[brwnman]

Finally some closure. Varsho and Kirk on the way to the WS.

Closure.

What they gonna say now?

Did we watch the same game? I saw Varsho prevent numerous runs with his glove tonight. And I don't think you understand what closure means. It was decided upon two weeks ago that the trade was a win. Incredible season with Kirk and Varsho trending up. Moreno, unfortunately seems to have stagnated and has been unable to address his power issues.

Clearly you didn't watch Varsho's performance in the playoffs. And decided by whom? All I see is 3 straight years that the Jays have lost this trade.

You can't call closure at the start of playoffs when Varsho hadn't played in more than 2 playoff games for the Jays. And when he finally had his chance, he folded. And so did Kirk. Both ended with negative win probability added and championship probability added. You know who didn't have a negative impact on his team? Moreno.

Closure.