2025-26 NBA Season Discussion

[falcolombardi]

He has to be the draft GOAT, or at the very least the best as far I can remember (even if we didn't pick Mitchell ourselves).

Zero misses, clear vision of the BPA no matter the consensus, tons of late steals. Keen eye for talent.

Nikola Topic, Dillon Jones, Tre Mann, Mitch McGary, Terrance Gerguson.

He has some clear misses.

Does Topic really count as a miss?

Or mitch mcgary for that matter

[Peregrine01]

7 games into the season and Jokic has a +18 on/off. Was really hoping that the Nuggets would be better without him this year with the addition of Jonas but it hasn’t turned out that way so far. The issue again is the lack of creation and at this point it’s clear that Murray really can’t do much without Jokic at all.

It’s actually a +28 on-off. The +18 is the net rating with him on the court.

Oops. Yeah it’s even worse and the Nuggets are once again leading the league in futility without their best player. I have to think that if they don’t win this year, they’re gonna have to move on from Murray. Just an underwhelming player all-around and particularly bad at $40 mil a year.

[ReggiesKnicks]

He has to be the draft GOAT, or at the very least the best as far I can remember (even if we didn't pick Mitchell ourselves).

Zero misses, clear vision of the BPA no matter the consensus, tons of late steals. Keen eye for talent.

Nikola Topic, Dillon Jones, Tre Mann, Mitch McGary, Terrance Gerguson.

He has some clear misses.

Does Topic really count as a miss?

Does KD count as a hit?

[lessthanjake]

I don’t really think that picks outside the top dozen or so picks can really be held up as a serious “miss” for a GM, since the chance of those picks resulting in a good player just isn’t high. Yeah, there’s some great players who have been picked outside of that (Jokic, Kawhi, Giannis, Manu, Draymond, etc.). But the baseline expectation of what you’ll get really isn’t high, so it’s hard to really “miss” on that. It’s the higher picks where picking someone who ends up not being good actually feels like it’s far worse than what would generally be expected from the pick.

As for top-dozen picks, the Thunder have gotten the following guys:

Kevin Durant
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Steven Adams
Josh Giddey
Chet Holmgren
Jalen Williams
Nikola Topic

We have no idea yet how good Topic will be (and if his current health issues prevent him from playing, it’s certainly not a foreseeable thing that Presti could reasonably be blamed for). So let’s leave him aside.

Other than Topic, we have three all-time greats (Durant, Westbrook, Harden), two all-star or all-NBA level guys who were already major contributors to an all-time great team (Holmgren, Williams), and then Josh Giddey and Steven Adams. Obviously, the Thunder ended up moving on from Giddey while he was still very young, but he’s looking like an all-star level guy at age 23. So the closest to a “miss” would be Steven Adams—who got picked at #12 and has been a genuinely very good role player. It’s certainly a “miss” in the sense that Giannis got picked a few picks later, but it’s not like the Thunder picked a guy who was a scrub.

[jalengreen]

Nikola Topic, Dillon Jones, Tre Mann, Mitch McGary, Terrance Gerguson.

He has some clear misses.

Does Topic really count as a miss?

Does KD count as a hit?

Not really sure what that has to do with Topic, but sure I'll bite: for evaluating a GM, no not really. I give the Spurs 0 credit for drafting Wemby, for example. It scales and I guess one can bicker between whether the Durant pick warrants some or no 'hit' credit? Shrug

But yeah not sure why one would write the Topic pick as a miss already. They knew he'd miss a year when they picked him and then he got cancer. Just feels odd

[eminence]

I don’t really think that picks outside the top dozen or so picks can really be held up as a serious “miss” for a GM, since the chance of those picks resulting in a good player just isn’t high. Yeah, there’s some great players who have been picked outside of that (Jokic, Kawhi, Giannis, Manu, Draymond, etc.). But the baseline expectation of what you’ll get really isn’t high, so it’s hard to really “miss” on that. It’s the higher picks where picking someone who ends up not being good actually feels like it’s far worse than what would generally be expected from the pick.

As for top-dozen picks, the Thunder have gotten the following guys:

Kevin Durant
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Steven Adams
Josh Giddey
Chet Holmgren
Jalen Williams
Nikola Topic

We have no idea yet how good Topic will be (and if his current health issues prevent him from playing, it’s certainly not a foreseeable thing that Presti could reasonably be blamed for). So let’s leave him aside.

Other than Topic, we have three all-time greats (Durant, Westbrook, Harden), two all-star or all-NBA level guys who were already major contributors to an all-time great team (Holmgren, Williams), and then Josh Giddey and Steven Adams. Obviously, the Thunder ended up moving on from Giddey while he was still very young, but he’s looking like an all-star level guy at age 23. So the closest to a “miss” would be Steven Adams—who got picked at #12 and has been a genuinely very good role player. It’s certainly a “miss” in the sense that Giannis got picked a few picks later, but it’s not like the Thunder picked a guy who was a scrub.

I would add the Ray Allen for Jeff Green trade, as that was clearly a young talent Presti identified and then acquired at draft time (probably agreed upon for Boston to take Green if we're being honest).

[Doctor MJ]

I don’t really think that picks outside the top dozen or so picks can really be held up as a serious “miss” for a GM, since the chance of those picks resulting in a good player just isn’t high. Yeah, there’s some great players who have been picked outside of that (Jokic, Kawhi, Giannis, Manu, Draymond, etc.). But the baseline expectation of what you’ll get really isn’t high, so it’s hard to really “miss” on that. It’s the higher picks where picking someone who ends up not being good actually feels like it’s far worse than what would generally be expected from the pick.

As for top-dozen picks, the Thunder have gotten the following guys:

Kevin Durant
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Steven Adams
Josh Giddey
Chet Holmgren
Jalen Williams
Nikola Topic

We have no idea yet how good Topic will be (and if his current health issues prevent him from playing, it’s certainly not a foreseeable thing that Presti could reasonably be blamed for). So let’s leave him aside.

Other than Topic, we have three all-time greats (Durant, Westbrook, Harden), two all-star or all-NBA level guys who were already major contributors to an all-time great team (Holmgren, Williams), and then Josh Giddey and Steven Adams. Obviously, the Thunder ended up moving on from Giddey while he was still very young, but he’s looking like an all-star level guy at age 23. So the closest to a “miss” would be Steven Adams—who got picked at #12 and has been a genuinely very good role player. It’s certainly a “miss” in the sense that Giannis got picked a few picks later, but it’s not like the Thunder picked a guy who was a scrub.

I would add the Ray Allen for Jeff Green trade, as that was clearly a young talent Presti identified and then acquired at draft time (probably agreed upon for Boston to take Green if we're being honest).

Yeah, that list is incredibly impressive, but Green should be on it too, and that was a huge miss not just because Green never became a player you should be playing serious minutes on a non-tanking team, not just because Greens presence contributed to OKC never really understanding what they had in Harden - which is a bizarre statement to make - but also as you say, they traded Ray Allen away for him.

Looking to trade the old to build around the young makes sense generally, but aside from the “for who exactly?”, one wonders Ray’s professionalism and mentorship could have kept those 3 superstar draft picks from becoming utterly toxic to culture like they have.

And this is also where the criticism for Presti aligns with the only really valid criticism of Ainge:

If you have a keen eye for talent but a poor sense of culture building, sometimes that blows up in your face.

Ainge is the more dramatic one here because he’s developed a reputation for disloyalty that makes players feel like just going to use them up and throw them away.

Presti with his first contender batch was a bit like Hinkie type. Just letting the kids roam free and then when they develop bad habits, realize it’s too late to mentor them because they think they know better than you do now.

I think it’s interesting to see Billy Donovan succeeding in Chicago after first succeeding in college and then being brought in as a new coach in OKC to fix things. He’s always looked like he had command over his team except in OKC, and I don’t think any other coach could have done much better. What Presti allowed to happen prior to that left the Thunder largely uncoachable until they started over with a new batch of youngins’.


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[Peregrine01]

AD with the good ol' bro science - "I gotta show up to camp 30 lbs overweight so I don't lose too much weight". Lo and behold, he's already missed half the games so far this season.

[penbeast0]

Does KD count as a hit?

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Does KD count as a hit?

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

[penbeast0]

Does KD count as a hit?

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

AS you can surely see yourself, there's a difference though I don't blame Portland or their GM for picking Oden. Injuries aren't something you can predict. He gets a minimal amount of credit for Durant over Horford, or someone like Jeff Green. People do make the wrong choice, like Bowie, or my Wiz taking Kwame Brown over #2 Pau Gasol. Often, but not always, the consensus choice is the right one.

[frica]

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

AS you can surely see yourself, there's a difference though I don't blame Portland or their GM for picking Oden. Injuries aren't something you can predict. He gets a minimal amount of credit for Durant over Horford, or someone like Jeff Green. People do make the wrong choice, like Bowie, or my Wiz taking Kwame Brown over #2 Pau Gasol. Often, but not always, the consensus choice is the right one.

Nobody had to predict injuries with Greg Oden though.
He was already riddled with them before getting picked.

[penbeast0]

I don't remember Oden being particularly injury prone before the NBA. He played all 32 games for Ohio State and neither the pre draft nor the post draft evaluations mention it:

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/greg-oden/
https://www.draftexpress.com/amp/article/2007-NBA-Draft-Report-Card-2156/

[Jaivl]

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

AS you can surely see yourself, there's a difference though I don't blame Portland or their GM for picking Oden. Injuries aren't something you can predict. He gets a minimal amount of credit for Durant over Horford, or someone like Jeff Green. People do make the wrong choice, like Bowie, or my Wiz taking Kwame Brown over #2 Pau Gasol. Often, but not always, the consensus choice is the right one.

Nobody had to predict injuries with Greg Oden though.
He was already riddled with them before getting picked.

It was my first year following the NBA, so take this with a huge grain of salt, but I don't remember injuries being a concern at all, or at least not in the way they were for other heralded prospects like Embiid.

Nikola Topic, Dillon Jones, Tre Mann, Mitch McGary, Terrance Gerguson.

He has some clear misses.

Does Topic really count as a miss?

Does KD count as a hit?

Not really, picking a bonafide superstar at #2 on a clear 2-superstar-prospect draft is perfectly neutral merit, slightly above average at best. Just like picking an irrelevant player with an irrelevant selection is about neutral, or slightly below average at worst.

[Doctor MJ]

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

AS you can surely see yourself, there's a difference though I don't blame Portland or their GM for picking Oden. Injuries aren't something you can predict. He gets a minimal amount of credit for Durant over Horford, or someone like Jeff Green. People do make the wrong choice, like Bowie, or my Wiz taking Kwame Brown over #2 Pau Gasol. Often, but not always, the consensus choice is the right one.

So I wanted to jump in here because I think beast & I see things similarly, but because he's expressing with nuance I'm not sure if it's clear.

When he said "not choosing Bowie of that year", I interpreted that to mean broadly choosing the (actual, not just projected) BPA rather than reaching for someone less talented in the name of fit. As such, given that Oden was already off the board before they picked, beat wasn't talking about Oden about the possibility of picking someone other than Durant at the 2nd spot and instead picking someone else available.

Folks I think are clearly confused because Oden like Bowie had huge injury issues, and that's understandable, but regardless of those similarities, Oden was off the board, end of story.

Beyond that, I do think we all have the reaction of "Who would the Bowie even have been given that 2007 was about the most clear cut 2-man-draft draft we ever saw?". There really was no discussion about who to pick 2nd, it was always "Whichever of the two superstar talents doesn't go #1."

But I do think it's worth recalling that:

a) Bowie was a freshman in '79-80, so by the time of the 1984 Draft, he was positively ancient by modern draft pick standards.

b) Bowie only made 3rd team All-SEC in the '83-84 season, so we're not talking about an actual dominant college star.

c) If we compare Bowie to the #1 pick 2-years-younger Hakeem based on box score stats:

PPG: Hakeem 16.8 on 64.7% TS, Bowie 10.5 on 56.2.
RPG: Hakeem 13.5, Bowie 9.2
BPG: Hakeem 5.6, Bowie 1.9
SPG: Hakeem 1.6, Bowie 0.6

While it's not like Portland ever made the case that Bowie was debatable against Hakeem for the top spot, I do think picking Bowie second kind of implies that at the very least they were getting a "poor man's #1 big", and to me this is where things get so damning. If you were imagining Bowie as a big time defensive anchor, how could you ignore the fact he's only blocking 1/3rd of the shots as the guy he's supposed to be the poor man of?

I've said before and I'll say again: I think the fact that Bowie's team got to the Final 4 at a time when Hakeem & Patrick Ewing did too made the Blazers thing "bigs are how you win, and since Ewing isn't in the draft, we're getting the 2nd best big and thus the 2nd most valuable draft pick".

And thus part of what we're talking about here is essentially "casual GMing". This wasn't a situation where a massive scouting department watched tons of film and came up with a minority opinion, this is about a lazy approach where they were looking for a player archetype and settled on whoever seemed like he could fit.

And while we might say no one is that incompetent today, we can at least say that when Presti drafted Durant, that was proof he wasn't THAT incompetent.

More broadly, as you say, we're kinda talking about 3 tiers of drafting:

Top: Disagreeing with consensus and proving to be right.
Middle: Agreeing with consensus whether they are right or wrong.
Bottom: Disagreeing with consensus and proving to be wrong.

Presti is in the Top tier for guys like Westbrook, Harden & JDub, in the Middle with KD, and I'm not sure if he's ever been in that Bottom tier.

And since you've brought up Kwame, here's my assessment, from years I was therefore, of #1 draft picks who weren't actually consensus top prospects:

1989 - Pervis Ellison (Sac)
1998 - Michael Olowokandi (LAC)
2006 - Andrea Bargnani (Tor)
2013 - Anthony Bennett (Cle)
2024 - Zaccharie Risacher (ATL)

I'd note that in none of these years was there a "sure thing superstar" available for choosing.

[penbeast0]

[quote="Doctor MJ"]

Pervis Ellison v. Danny Ferry in 89 I remember as being pretty much a consensus pick but generally bigs have been most of the reaches in the #1 spot. You left out LaRue Martin (before your sample size?) and the mentioned Kwame Brown as well.

[falcolombardi]

Does KD count as a hit?

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

You are getting oddly hung up on this, specially mentioning cases like topic as a miss who i am assuming no one saw getting cancer right after a redshirt year

[Doctor MJ]

Pervis Ellison v. Danny Ferry in 89 I remember as being pretty much a consensus pick but generally bigs have been most of the reaches in the #1 spot. You left out LaRue Martin (before your sample size?) and the mentioned Kwame Brown as well.

Well, LaRue is definitely before my time.

In 1989, I think you're definitely a better judge than me. My perception at the time of Ellison was of a guy who'd made a big splash as a freshman, and while he was solid in the years to come, got surpassed by a guy like Ferry in the time after. As I say that, it's not like Ferry was a Ewing-level prospect, so this might belong more in the territory of "there was no consensus".

Re: Kwame. My perception of that draft is that no one thought anyone other than the high schoolers had star potential and so it was just a question of which between Kwame, Tyson & Curry would go first, with the draft coming in the wake of HS-to-pro Darius Miles being seen as "the guy who should have gone #1" the prior year.

There were certainly folks at the time pushing against the "HS-to-pro Bubble" and you may well have been one of them, but the fact that no college players went in the Top 5, and that there were literally bigger concerns about drafting a White Euro at #1 than a High Schooler, I think the Kwame pick made sense.

But of course similarly, after the 2001 draft, there was some caution about championing high schoolers unthinkingly. While I don't actually think was the worst #1 pick in terms of NBA basketball that we've since seen - Bennett - Kwame is to this day someone who never proved competent at playing basketball beyond the high school level, and while that has to be a possibility for any HS-to-Pro guy, it was quite embarrassing both for the Wizards (who drafted Kwame) and the Bulls (who bet everything on Tyson/Curry).

[Owly]

I don't remember Oden being particularly injury prone before the NBA. He played all 32 games for Ohio State and neither the pre draft nor the post draft evaluations mention it:

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/greg-oden/
https://www.draftexpress.com/amp/article/2007-NBA-Draft-Report-Card-2156/

Oden plays 32 of 39
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/ohio-state/men/2007.html

Per Wikipedia

Oden had surgery on his right wrist on June 16, 2006, in Indianapolis to repair a ligament injury that occurred late in his senior high school season.[10] As a result, he sat on the Ohio State bench during the beginning of the 2006–07 season

I don't know about anything at the level of Embiid or which would have led people to have a good idea where his career actually went.

[ReggiesKnicks]

It counts as a hit but not as one where he went against consensus. But, he does get credit for not choosing whoever the Sam Bowie of that year was.

He gets credit for not taking Greg Oden since Greg Oden was picked #1 and Oklahoma City had the #2 pick?

The mental gymnastics here are incredible.

You are getting oddly hung up on this, specially mentioning cases like topic as a miss who i am assuming no one saw getting cancer right after a redshirt year

I think I've made two to three comments in here. Is that what hanging up means?