Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread)

[Optms]

srs for the relevant teams:

Denver: 12.13
OKC: 8.88
SAS: 6.09
Lakers: 3.13
Mil: 1.36

This tells me that the lakers and bucks are simply not going to win enough games for Luka and Giannis to be competitive. We now have a 3 man race between Jokic, Wemby and SGA.

Lakers just beat the Spurs with Wemby and they weren't even at full health.

But somehow some stat tells you they can't keep this pace up? Luka has missed about 40% of the games, Reeves has missed time as well and Lebron hasn't even played yet. They are 8-3 despite all the injuries. Does SRS take that into account? I guess not. I can't say the same thing about the Bucks since they are at full health and lack the supporting cast around Giannis but they still are playing in the East so its feasible for them to approach 50 wins. What the Lakers are doing however is surprising no one but non Lakers fans. Most of us knew Luka would be coming out rolling. And additions like Ayton and Smart have been out of the park moves. Luka will insert himself into the debate by next week if not challenge for MVP lead. Some already have him top 3.

SRS accounts for point differential and the Lakers' point diff is not great. They're winning a ton of close games, which usually evens out over time.

Luka has been great, but this doesn't look like some dominant team.

It doesn't reflect the Lakers have been winning close games while injured, that's why it isn't a barometer of long term success here because it isn't taking into account those points. So if the Lakers are better at full health, like almost every team is, and they've been winning despite missing their core for all if most of the year, then their winning is sustainable.

Much like Wemby, so long as Luka is healthy, he will be in the MVP race at years end. Not so sure he can win with a healthy Wemby playing, but he can finish top 2 or 3 fairly easily.

[CobraCommander]

Luka is clearly in the lead with 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg, the only question is whois in second.

If you take the stats he could win no doubt. Besides, he will need to play enough, Lakers to finish top-4 I guess, and also build a narrative around why he should win it.

IMO, Jokic would only need the Nuggets finish close enough to OKC. And SGA, just roughly match Joker's and Luka's stats/impact.

Sure but SGA is not that close to matching Luka's stats:

Luka 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg / 1.7 spg
SGA 33.2 ppg / 5.2 rpg / 6.0 apg / 1.1 spg

Now show Austin with Luka there and Not there…

Luka is carrying more of the load because he wants to not because he has to… the team wins as much with AR as with Luka and as good as Luka is, he makes the best players around him worse.::.

Honestly I’m not saying any of this is true but that’s the only narrative that keeps Luka out of the top 3 or 4 this year -

I don’t see anyone beating Wemby unless SGA wins like 70… or Jokic is even Better than ever - or if Luka avg 37 9 and 9 plus plays enough games and isn’t a sink hole on defense PLUS the lakers win a ton.:..

The wemby story is just too good… and he is the future

[iggymcfrack]

Luka is clearly in the lead with 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg, the only question is whois in second.

He's still not within a country mile of Jokic even if you ignore Jokic's huge lead in games played. Here are the numbers for the top MVP candidates this year:

Jokic: 18.5 BPM, .420 WS/48, 18.7 net rating, +19.9 on/off
Giannis: 11.8 BPM, .312 WS/48, 9.2 net rating, +19.4 on/off
Luka: 11.3 BPM, .255 WS/48, 3.9 net rating, +3.6 on/off
SGA: 11.2 BPM, .329 WS/48, 13.4 net rating, +1.4 on/off
Wemby: 5.8 BPM, .220 WS/48, 11.8 net rating, +12.3 on/off

Luka's numbers in the games he's healthy this year are actually much closer to Mikal Bridges than they are to Jokic. And he's currently on pace to play only 52 games.

[Whopper_Sr]

Jokic: 18.5 BPM, .420 WS/48, 18.7 net rating, +19.9 on/off

That's just ridiculous. That's some 09 LeBron levels of shenanigans.

[Yuri36]

Luka is clearly in the lead with 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg, the only question is whois in second.

Not to mention a 8-3 record without LeBron since the beginning of season

[Yuri36]

Luka is clearly in the lead with 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg, the only question is whois in second.

If you take the stats he could win no doubt. Besides, he will need to play enough, Lakers to finish top-4 I guess, and also build a narrative around why he should win it.

IMO, Jokic would only need the Nuggets finish close enough to OKC. And SGA, just roughly match Joker's and Luka's stats/impact.

Why he should win? Because firstly, he is long overdue
He should have already won it two years ago with the insane and historical season he had.
The fact he finished 3rd in the voting was a really bad joke which probably wouldn't have happened if he was wearing Lakers jersey instead of Mavs.

[Yuri36]

Shai has better efficiency, has played 4 more games, has scored 33% more total points than Luka. And that’s just the side of the ball they are close on. Defensively, they aren’t close.

....which obviously explains why Luka has almost twice as many rebounds AND steals as SGA so far

[Optms]

Luka's best bet versus Shai is to maintain a 34-35 ppg average. That will close the defensive gap. Otherwise it's another Jokic / Shai situation due to Shai's two way ability. Zero chance OKC ends up with 70 wins either. Not with JDub missing time and how fragile Chet is.

Luka ending up with 34/10/8 on good efficiency is realistic.

[Yuri36]

I love how people talk about SGA's defense like he was prime MJ or Kawhi when he is obviously very very far from that.

Let's put it that way, his perimeter defense is decent and certainly better than Luka's (mostly because of Luka's clear lack of speed for a NBA guard) but really not significant enough to make a real difference in games.

[zero rings]

Lakers just beat the Spurs with Wemby and they weren't even at full health.

But somehow some stat tells you they can't keep this pace up? Luka has missed about 40% of the games, Reeves has missed time as well and Lebron hasn't even played yet. They are 8-3 despite all the injuries. Does SRS take that into account? I guess not. I can't say the same thing about the Bucks since they are at full health and lack the supporting cast around Giannis but they still are playing in the East so its feasible for them to approach 50 wins. What the Lakers are doing however is surprising no one but non Lakers fans. Most of us knew Luka would be coming out rolling. And additions like Ayton and Smart have been out of the park moves. Luka will insert himself into the debate by next week if not challenge for MVP lead. Some already have him top 3.

SRS accounts for point differential and the Lakers' point diff is not great. They're winning a ton of close games, which usually evens out over time.

Luka has been great, but this doesn't look like some dominant team.

It doesn't reflect the Lakers have been winning close games while injured, that's why it isn't a barometer of long term success here because it isn't taking into account those points. So if the Lakers are better at full health, like almost every team is, and they've been winning despite missing their core for all if most of the year, then their winning is sustainable.

Much like Wemby, so long as Luka is healthy, he will be in the MVP race at years end. Not so sure he can win with a healthy Wemby playing, but he can finish top 2 or 3 fairly easily.

There's certainly room for them to get better, but a +1.6 net diff just isn't that impressive no matter how you cut it. The Thunder have been dealing with all sorts of injuries and they're at +13.6.

[Edrees]

Lakers just beat the Spurs with Wemby and they weren't even at full health.

But somehow some stat tells you they can't keep this pace up? Luka has missed about 40% of the games, Reeves has missed time as well and Lebron hasn't even played yet. They are 8-3 despite all the injuries. Does SRS take that into account? I guess not. I can't say the same thing about the Bucks since they are at full health and lack the supporting cast around Giannis but they still are playing in the East so its feasible for them to approach 50 wins. What the Lakers are doing however is surprising no one but non Lakers fans. Most of us knew Luka would be coming out rolling. And additions like Ayton and Smart have been out of the park moves. Luka will insert himself into the debate by next week if not challenge for MVP lead. Some already have him top 3.

SRS accounts for point differential and the Lakers' point diff is not great. They're winning a ton of close games, which usually evens out over time.

Luka has been great, but this doesn't look like some dominant team.

It doesn't reflect the Lakers have been winning close games while injured, that's why it isn't a barometer of long term success here because it isn't taking into account those points. So if the Lakers are better at full health, like almost every team is, and they've been winning despite missing their core for all if most of the year, then their winning is sustainable.

Much like Wemby, so long as Luka is healthy, he will be in the MVP race at years end. Not so sure he can win with a healthy Wemby playing, but he can finish top 2 or 3 fairly easily.

Yeah, the Lakers point differential with Luka , Reeves, Smart, Ayton all missing several games and Lebron missing every game is in no way indicitive of how the team will do when they have everyone healthy, which stands that it will be a much better point differential with all healthy.

[zero rings]

I love how people talk about SGA's defense like he was prime MJ or Kawhi when he is obviously very very far from that.

Let's put it that way, his perimeter defense is decent and certainly better than Luka's (mostly of Luka's clear lack of speed for a NBA guard) but really not significant to make a real difference in games.

Even if you're lower on SGA's defense (I'm not), he has his advantages on offense, too. He's the more efficient/consistent scorer and his turnovers are incredibly low given his production. 1.7 TOVs per game is insane.

[BigGargamel]

Luka's best bet versus Shai is to maintain a 34-35 ppg average. That will close the defensive gap. Otherwise it's another Jokic / Shai situation due to Shai's two way ability. Zero chance OKC ends up with 70 wins either. Not with JDub missing time and how fragile Chet is.

Luka ending up with 34/10/8 on good efficiency is realistic.

Williams has yet to play and they are 10-1. I absolutely think they can win 70 games if they don't start resting players. The Thunder are that much better than everyone else.

Which is why I think SGA is the only player deserving over Jokic, like last year. Even though Jokic remains the best player in the NBA, the Thunder are unquestionably the best team in the league, and SGA makes that engine go. He's an MVP.

Even if Jokic, a center, doubles SGA, a point guard, in assists.

[Edrees]

SRS accounts for point differential and the Lakers' point diff is not great. They're winning a ton of close games, which usually evens out over time.

Luka has been great, but this doesn't look like some dominant team.

It doesn't reflect the Lakers have been winning close games while injured, that's why it isn't a barometer of long term success here because it isn't taking into account those points. So if the Lakers are better at full health, like almost every team is, and they've been winning despite missing their core for all if most of the year, then their winning is sustainable.

Much like Wemby, so long as Luka is healthy, he will be in the MVP race at years end. Not so sure he can win with a healthy Wemby playing, but he can finish top 2 or 3 fairly easily.

There's certainly room for them to get better, but a +1.6 net diff just isn't that impressive no matter how you cut it. The Thunder have been dealing with all sorts of injuries and they're at +13.6.

You can't even compare their injuries. Lakers missed 4 games from Luka, 3 games from Reeves, 1 game from Ayton, 8 games from Vincent, 2 games from Smart, and 11 games from Lebron. That's a total of 18 games from All Star level players including 2 all NBA players, and 12 total games from rotational players. Their net diff is absolutely a result of these injuries, the fact that they are still winning games they had no business winning with these injuries is a huge break for them.

Compare that talent disparity to what OKC has missed. SGA hasn't missed a single game. You are comparing apples to oranges. If SGA missed 4 of 11 games with SGA and their net rating wasn't too high, you would definitely not use that against them, just be honest with yourself.

Also nobody is saying Lakers will catch up or win as much as OKC. Only as much as the other teams in the west. If you have to use OKC as a barometer of why the Lakers aren't good at all, its meaningless. Every other team in the west would lose that comparison too. Nobody is saying the Lakers will end up with a better record than the Thunder. It's like saying Player X is good and your rebuttal is that his averages aren't as good as Michael Jordan.

[Bob8]

Luka is clearly in the lead with 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg, the only question is whois in second.

He's still not within a country mile of Jokic even if you ignore Jokic's huge lead in games played. Here are the numbers for the top MVP candidates this year:

Jokic: 18.5 BPM, .420 WS/48, 18.7 net rating, +19.9 on/off
Giannis: 11.8 BPM, .312 WS/48, 9.2 net rating, +19.4 on/off
Luka: 11.3 BPM, .255 WS/48, 3.9 net rating, +3.6 on/off
SGA: 11.2 BPM, .329 WS/48, 13.4 net rating, +1.4 on/off
Wemby: 5.8 BPM, .220 WS/48, 11.8 net rating, +12.3 on/off

Luka's numbers in the games he's healthy this year are actually much closer to Mikal Bridges than they are to Jokic. And he's currently on pace to play only 52 games.

So season is basically over and Nuggets already champions? They will just play Jokic 40+ minutes in playoffs and won all games by 15+ points. Numbers say he's that good. Congrats to Denver.

Btw. I see Brown dominating this season too in Denver, can't shoot, but his +/-, on/off is spectacular. He might be in first All Nba team. What a player.

And in the end what impressive wins Nuggets had, they dominated Pelicans, Pacers, Wolves without Ant, Warriors without Steph...

[zero rings]

It doesn't reflect the Lakers have been winning close games while injured, that's why it isn't a barometer of long term success here because it isn't taking into account those points. So if the Lakers are better at full health, like almost every team is, and they've been winning despite missing their core for all if most of the year, then their winning is sustainable.

Much like Wemby, so long as Luka is healthy, he will be in the MVP race at years end. Not so sure he can win with a healthy Wemby playing, but he can finish top 2 or 3 fairly easily.

There's certainly room for them to get better, but a +1.6 net diff just isn't that impressive no matter how you cut it. The Thunder have been dealing with all sorts of injuries and they're at +13.6.

You can't even compare their injuries. Lakers missed 4 games from Luka, 3 games from Reeves, 1 game from Ayton, 8 games from Vincent, 2 games from Smart, and 11 games from Lebron. That's a total of 18 games from All Star level players including 2 all NBA players, and 12 total games from rotational players. Their net diff is absolutely a result of these injuries, the fact that they are still winning games they had no business winning with these injuries is a huge break for them.

Compare that talent disparity to what OKC has missed. SGA hasn't missed a single game. You are comparing apples to oranges. If SGA missed 4 of 11 games with SGA and their net rating wasn't too high, you would definitely not use that against them, just be honest with yourself.

Also nobody is saying Lakers will catch up or win as much as OKC. Only as much as the other teams in the west. If you have to use OKC as a barometer of why the Lakers aren't good at all, its meaningless. Every other team in the west would lose that comparison too. Nobody is saying the Lakers will end up with a better record than the Thunder. It's like saying Player X is good and your rebuttal is that his averages aren't as good as Michael Jordan.

Chet has missed 4 games, Dort has missed 4 games, Caruso has missed 4 games, and Williams has missed the entire season. I'd say that's pretty comparable to the Lakers' injury woes.

And yes, if Shai had missed 4 out of 11 games, I would absolutely hold that against his MVP case. Why wouldn't I? Especially if the team went 3-1 without him.

I'm not a Shai stan or a Luka hater. I'm rooting for Jokic to get his 4th. I just think Shai has a had a more complete season than Luka so far, as he has for the past couple years.

[iggymcfrack]

Luka is clearly in the lead with 37.1 ppg / 9.4 rpg / 9.1 apg, the only question is whois in second.

He's still not within a country mile of Jokic even if you ignore Jokic's huge lead in games played. Here are the numbers for the top MVP candidates this year:

Jokic: 18.5 BPM, .420 WS/48, 18.7 net rating, +19.9 on/off
Giannis: 11.8 BPM, .312 WS/48, 9.2 net rating, +19.4 on/off
Luka: 11.3 BPM, .255 WS/48, 3.9 net rating, +3.6 on/off
SGA: 11.2 BPM, .329 WS/48, 13.4 net rating, +1.4 on/off
Wemby: 5.8 BPM, .220 WS/48, 11.8 net rating, +12.3 on/off

Luka's numbers in the games he's healthy this year are actually much closer to Mikal Bridges than they are to Jokic. And he's currently on pace to play only 52 games.

So season is basically over and Nuggets already champions? They will just play Jokic 40+ minutes in playoffs and won all games by 15+ points. Numbers say he's that good. Congrats to Denver.

Btw. I see Brown dominating this season too in Denver, can't shoot, but his +/-, on/off is spectacular. He might be in first All Nba team. What a player.

And in the end what impressive wins Nuggets had, they dominated Pelicans, Pacers, Wolves without Ant, Warriors without Steph...

I’m just saying Jokic has a massive lead in the MVP race. The difference between 1st and 2nd in BPM is larger than the difference between 2nd and 11th. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets are better than any team’s ever been for a season with one player. I’m not saying Jokic is really going to have the best season of all-time 70 games from now, but he’s on pace for it.

Putting it all on the schedule is silly too. The Nuggets have a point differential of +13.2 and an SRS of +12.1. So the team’s average game is against a team 1.1 points below league average. Adjusted for schedule, the Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are now behind the 15/16 Warriors with Steph/Draymond, but that’s it.

Jokic had his best game of the season against Miami who’s 5th in the league in SRS and 6th in defensive rating with an excellent defensive center in Bam Adebayo.

[Bob8]

He's still not within a country mile of Jokic even if you ignore Jokic's huge lead in games played. Here are the numbers for the top MVP candidates this year:

Jokic: 18.5 BPM, .420 WS/48, 18.7 net rating, +19.9 on/off
Giannis: 11.8 BPM, .312 WS/48, 9.2 net rating, +19.4 on/off
Luka: 11.3 BPM, .255 WS/48, 3.9 net rating, +3.6 on/off
SGA: 11.2 BPM, .329 WS/48, 13.4 net rating, +1.4 on/off
Wemby: 5.8 BPM, .220 WS/48, 11.8 net rating, +12.3 on/off

Luka's numbers in the games he's healthy this year are actually much closer to Mikal Bridges than they are to Jokic. And he's currently on pace to play only 52 games.

So season is basically over and Nuggets already champions? They will just play Jokic 40+ minutes in playoffs and won all games by 15+ points. Numbers say he's that good. Congrats to Denver.

Btw. I see Brown dominating this season too in Denver, can't shoot, but his +/-, on/off is spectacular. He might be in first All Nba team. What a player.

And in the end what impressive wins Nuggets had, they dominated Pelicans, Pacers, Wolves without Ant, Warriors without Steph...

I’m just saying Jokic has a massive lead in the MVP race. The difference between 1st and 2nd in BPM is larger than the difference between 2nd and 11th. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets are better than any team’s ever been for a season with one player. I’m not saying Jokic is really going to have the best season of all-time 70 games from now, but he’s on pace for it.

Putting it all on the schedule is silly too. The Nuggets have a point differential of +13.2 and an SRS of +12.1. So the team’s average game is against a team 1.1 points below league average. Adjusted for schedule, the Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are now behind the 15/16 Warriors with Steph/Draymond, but that’s it.

Jokic had his best game of the season against Miami who’s 5th in the league in SRS and 6th in defensive rating with an excellent defensive center in Bam Adebayo.

Massive lead after playing 9 games.

It's not only schedule. It's about some of their opponents missing half of the team or their best players and Denver being one off the healthiest teams.

If you really believe in those numbers, then you should put big money on Denver, because they will be unbeatable in playoffs, where Jokic's minutes go up.

[iggymcfrack]

So season is basically over and Nuggets already champions? They will just play Jokic 40+ minutes in playoffs and won all games by 15+ points. Numbers say he's that good. Congrats to Denver.

Btw. I see Brown dominating this season too in Denver, can't shoot, but his +/-, on/off is spectacular. He might be in first All Nba team. What a player.

And in the end what impressive wins Nuggets had, they dominated Pelicans, Pacers, Wolves without Ant, Warriors without Steph...

I’m just saying Jokic has a massive lead in the MVP race. The difference between 1st and 2nd in BPM is larger than the difference between 2nd and 11th. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets are better than any team’s ever been for a season with one player. I’m not saying Jokic is really going to have the best season of all-time 70 games from now, but he’s on pace for it.

Putting it all on the schedule is silly too. The Nuggets have a point differential of +13.2 and an SRS of +12.1. So the team’s average game is against a team 1.1 points below league average. Adjusted for schedule, the Nuggets with Jokic on the floor are now behind the 15/16 Warriors with Steph/Draymond, but that’s it.

Jokic had his best game of the season against Miami who’s 5th in the league in SRS and 6th in defensive rating with an excellent defensive center in Bam Adebayo.

Massive lead after playing 9 games.

It's not only schedule. It's about some of their opponents missing half of the team or their best players and Denver being one off the healthiest teams.

If you really believe in those numbers, then you should put big money on Denver, because they will be unbeatable in playoffs, where Jokic's minutes go up.

I already bet them at 8:1 in the offseason which is better odds than you can get anywhere now. They're very good, but I still don't think they're as good as a healthy Thunder team which we haven't seen yet all year despite their 10-1 record.

[DrModesty]

There's certainly room for them to get better, but a +1.6 net diff just isn't that impressive no matter how you cut it. The Thunder have been dealing with all sorts of injuries and they're at +13.6.

You can't even compare their injuries. Lakers missed 4 games from Luka, 3 games from Reeves, 1 game from Ayton, 8 games from Vincent, 2 games from Smart, and 11 games from Lebron. That's a total of 18 games from All Star level players including 2 all NBA players, and 12 total games from rotational players. Their net diff is absolutely a result of these injuries, the fact that they are still winning games they had no business winning with these injuries is a huge break for them.

Compare that talent disparity to what OKC has missed. SGA hasn't missed a single game. You are comparing apples to oranges. If SGA missed 4 of 11 games with SGA and their net rating wasn't too high, you would definitely not use that against them, just be honest with yourself.

Also nobody is saying Lakers will catch up or win as much as OKC. Only as much as the other teams in the west. If you have to use OKC as a barometer of why the Lakers aren't good at all, its meaningless. Every other team in the west would lose that comparison too. Nobody is saying the Lakers will end up with a better record than the Thunder. It's like saying Player X is good and your rebuttal is that his averages aren't as good as Michael Jordan.

Chet has missed 4 games, Dort has missed 4 games, Caruso has missed 4 games, and Williams has missed the entire season. I'd say that's pretty comparable to the Lakers' injury woes.

And yes, if Shai had missed 4 out of 11 games, I would absolutely hold that against his MVP case. Why wouldn't I? Especially if the team went 3-1 without him.

I'm not a Shai stan or a Luka hater. I'm rooting for Jokic to get his 4th. I just think Shai has a had a more complete season than Luka so far, as he has for the past couple years.

Not to mention 3 games missed by Wiggins, 5 games missed by Joe, 1 game missed by Cason, Dort missing his 5th game tonight, and Kenrich out all season. OKC have had injuries all over the place.