Is it time we discuss Isaac Okoro?

[Jcool0]

Fill me in on what someone paying attention would see with Lonzo. I'm not paying attention, but he's at career worst numbers in basically everything advanced, on/off, raw, per game, per minute, rate based, on both sides of the ball outside of assist rate (which itself is mitigated by way worse TO%). The Cavs are playing worse with him on the floor than basically anyone else on the roster.

I've only seen the Cavs games in preseason and regular season where they played us, so not watching, but he looks awful. Fine for the Cavs, they were just dumping salary, but doesn't look like he's doing anything for them.

Not trying to say he's an All NBA player and shooting needs to get better but everything else is what you expect.

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https://kingjamesgospel.com/cavaliers-already-learning-brutal-lonzo-ball-reality

Again, I'm not watching the Cavs game by game, but those are largely random tweets, one of probably his lone good shooting stretch of the year. I don't know the metrics all make him look really, really awful. Again, maybe that's not the case, but you'd think it would show up in something if it wasn't.

It's fine for the Cavs, they were just trying to save money, and maybe Lonzo just chews up a few minutes for them, but man I don't think he's killing it out there.

So you're not watching Cavs games... But can dismiss evidence because it directly conflicts with what you think.... Okay then. Again his isnt going to be an All NBA player, Cavs don't need that. Hes a 7th man for them. He needs to get better shooting threes, history says he will. But the Assists and Steals are still around where they usually are for him.

[dougthonus]

So you're not watching Cavs games... But can dismiss evidence because it directly conflicts with what you think.... Okay then. Again his isnt going to be an All NBA player, Cavs don't need that. Hes a 7th man for them. He needs to get better shooting threes, history says he will. But the Assists and Steals are still around where they usually are for him.

Using only rate based stuff:
Assists are doing great (even slightly above career average)
TO% above his career average as well though (A/TO worse than career average)
STOCKS rates (and %s) way below his career average
All scoring stats WAY below career average (efficiency is out of the league bad)
His +/- stuff is about the worst on the team (typically a huge strength or indicator of doing stuff outside the box score)

And I'm not dismissing evidence. I'm dismissing very particular types of evidence of "here is a tweet highlighting a play". One such tweet shows him shooting well when we know he has shot god awful. The next shows a single good defensive possession. The 3rd shows a variety of highlights, most of him are shooting wide open 3s (which again is just sampling bias bias because we know he's been god awful as a shooter). He's got a few okay passes in that clip too but nothing real special (and certainly I believe he is a really good passer and have no problem believing that aspect of his game has been fine). I don't find that evidence particularly compelling given the vast majority of it is shots of him hitting wide open 3s, which again, we know factually he has been very bad at.

FWIW, I don't think the Cavs necessarily need him at all. As I said, this trade was about saving money for them. They already won the trade from their perspective.

[League Circles]

Lonzo Ball might be the most overrated shooter I've ever seen

[kodo]

After a very rough start his shooting %s in all areas has gone back up. Last 5 games: 51% FG, 42% 3P, 92% FT.
He's looking like a solid 3&D guy. Really my only issue with him is he shouldn't be starting.

[Red Larrivee]

I just don't see how Ball's play is relevant to the discussion anymore. He was never going to be on this team this season. His role is redundant with Jones here.

[HomoSapien]

I just don't see how Ball's play is relevant to the discussion anymore. He was never going to be on this team this season. His role is redundant with Jones here.

I mean yes and no. His size makes him versatile enough to play the three.

[Jcool0]

After a very rough start his shooting %s in all areas has gone back up. Last 5 games: 51% FG, 42% 3P, 92% FT.
He's looking like a solid 3&D guy. Really my only issue with him is he shouldn't be starting.

Except for the whole not paying good D part.

[Hangtime84]

After a very rough start his shooting %s in all areas has gone back up. Last 5 games: 51% FG, 42% 3P, 92% FT.
He's looking like a solid 3&D guy. Really my only issue with him is he shouldn't be starting.

Cavs were right to find a upgrade at that position. We will most likely do the same. Happy he is scoring better tho.

[Red Larrivee]

After a very rough start his shooting %s in all areas has gone back up. Last 5 games: 51% FG, 42% 3P, 92% FT.
He's looking like a solid 3&D guy. Really my only issue with him is he shouldn't be starting.

Except for the whole not paying good D part.

He's 74th percentile in defensive xRAPM so far. That's slightly below his 85th percentile average over the last 3 seasons.

At the very least, he's been good defensively.

[Jcool0]

So you're not watching Cavs games... But can dismiss evidence because it directly conflicts with what you think.... Okay then. Again his isnt going to be an All NBA player, Cavs don't need that. Hes a 7th man for them. He needs to get better shooting threes, history says he will. But the Assists and Steals are still around where they usually are for him.

Using only rate based stuff:
Assists are doing great (even slightly above career average)
TO% above his career average as well though (A/TO worse than career average)
STOCKS rates (and %s) way below his career average
All scoring stats WAY below career average (efficiency is out of the league bad)
His +/- stuff is about the worst on the team (typically a huge strength or indicator of doing stuff outside the box score)

And I'm not dismissing evidence. I'm dismissing very particular types of evidence of "here is a tweet highlighting a play". One such tweet shows him shooting well when we know he has shot god awful. The next shows a single good defensive possession. The 3rd shows a variety of highlights, most of him are shooting wide open 3s (which again is just sampling bias bias because we know he's been god awful as a shooter). He's got a few okay passes in that clip too but nothing real special (and certainly I believe he is a really good passer and have no problem believing that aspect of his game has been fine). I don't find that evidence particularly compelling given the vast majority of it is shots of him hitting wide open 3s, which again, we know factually he has been very bad at.

FWIW, I don't think the Cavs necessarily need him at all. As I said, this trade was about saving money for them. They already won the trade from their perspective.

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[boozapalooza]

One thing abundantly clear from the last 2 games - Okoro is our ONLY lockdown defender. Without him on defense, we can’t stop anything. He is a highly valuable piece for us. Need him back ASAP

[Red Larrivee]

One thing abundantly clear from the last 2 games - Okoro is our ONLY lockdown defender. Without him on defense, we can’t stop anything. He is a highly valuable piece for us. Need him back ASAP

If you scroll the Bulls most frequent 3-man lineups, pretty much every lineup with Okoro in it is a net negative. And not just by a little, but like....a lot.

That said, the Bulls have essentially got what they traded for. Okoro's production is in line with what he's always done. He's just not really good on either end, and teams don't even care that he's a 38% 3P shooter over the last 3 seasons, because he's not shooting more.

[MGB8]

One thing abundantly clear from the last 2 games - Okoro is our ONLY lockdown defender. Without him on defense, we can’t stop anything. He is a highly valuable piece for us. Need him back ASAP

If you scroll the Bulls most frequent 3-man lineups, pretty much every lineup with Okoro in it is a net negative. And not just by a little, but like....a lot.

That said, the Bulls have essentially got what they traded for. Okoro's production is in line with what he's always done. He's just not really good on either end, and teams don't even care that he's a 38% 3P shooter over the last 3 seasons, because he's not shooting more.

Eh, it may be that those numbers are missing something or just impacted by small sample size, because the Bulls sucking sure seems to coincide with Okoro being out. Not the only factor, sure, but speaks to the impact of his role and the substitutes the Bulls have (who also take more shots, which may be disruptive to others).

[Guru]

I just don't see how Ball's play is relevant to the discussion anymore. He was never going to be on this team this season. His role is redundant with Jones here.

Its not. He was also too fragile for what we needed him for

[Red Larrivee]

Eh, it may be that those numbers are missing something or just impacted by small sample size, because the Bulls sucking sure seems to coincide with Okoro being out. Not the only factor, sure, but speaks to the impact of his role and the substitutes the Bulls have (who also take more shots, which may be disruptive to others).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Bulls are better off without Okoro completely. But so far, his role within our sum of parts is the easiest to exploit. And that's why so many lineups with him are net negatives.

Even if he's shooting well, I don't think teams care. And while he's a more than capable defender, he's not so good at it that it negates what he doesn't bring on offense.

[HomoSapien]

Eh, it may be that those numbers are missing something or just impacted by small sample size, because the Bulls sucking sure seems to coincide with Okoro being out. Not the only factor, sure, but speaks to the impact of his role and the substitutes the Bulls have (who also take more shots, which may be disruptive to others).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Bulls are better off without Okoro completely. But so far, his role within our sum of parts is the easiest to exploit. And that's why so many lineups with him are net negatives.

Even if he's shooting well, I don't think teams care. And while he's a more than capable defender, he's not so good at it that it negates what he doesn't bring on offense.

He's really the player/position I want to upgrade the most. Billy called him out as our only defender on the roster (or only guy who hangs his hat on defense), but he's often undersized in the defensive matchups we're throwing him out against. He's also a below-average rebounder, which is costing us big as teams are feasting against us on the offensive glass (we're the 4th worst team in the league here and our overall rebounding differential is -0.3). Pat obviously contributes to these problems just as much, but is harder to move.

[dougthonus]

Eh, it may be that those numbers are missing something or just impacted by small sample size, because the Bulls sucking sure seems to coincide with Okoro being out. Not the only factor, sure, but speaks to the impact of his role and the substitutes the Bulls have (who also take more shots, which may be disruptive to others).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Bulls are better off without Okoro completely. But so far, his role within our sum of parts is the easiest to exploit. And that's why so many lineups with him are net negatives.

Even if he's shooting well, I don't think teams care. And while he's a more than capable defender, he's not so good at it that it negates what he doesn't bring on offense.

We just gave up 70 point first halves to the two worst teams in the league without him. I'll go out on a limb and say his defense means something.

The +/- stuff is an empty argument for all the reasons that all the data scientist people have been saying forever (needs bigger sample sizes, needs to regress for quality of opponents / teammates, needs luck factored out etc..). There are versions of looking at +/- data that mean something, but all the serious ones require more data and aren't relevant yet or easy to see on a box score.

[sco]

Eh, it may be that those numbers are missing something or just impacted by small sample size, because the Bulls sucking sure seems to coincide with Okoro being out. Not the only factor, sure, but speaks to the impact of his role and the substitutes the Bulls have (who also take more shots, which may be disruptive to others).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Bulls are better off without Okoro completely. But so far, his role within our sum of parts is the easiest to exploit. And that's why so many lineups with him are net negatives.

Even if he's shooting well, I don't think teams care. And while he's a more than capable defender, he's not so good at it that it negates what he doesn't bring on offense.

We just gave up 70 point first halves to the two worst teams in the league without him. I'll go out on a limb and say his defense means something.

The +/- stuff is an empty argument for all the reasons that all the data scientist people have been saying forever (needs bigger sample sizes, needs to regress for quality of opponents / teammates, needs luck factored out etc..). There are versions of looking at +/- data that mean something, but all the serious ones require more data and aren't relevant yet or easy to see on a box score.

We may still suck on defense with him, but I have little doubt we suck less. If somehow we can insert him AND replace Vuc, we might actually have a positive +- starting line-up. I REALLY want to know if that's possible before the deadline.

[Red Larrivee]

We just gave up 70 point first halves to the two worst teams in the league without him. I'll go out on a limb and say his defense means something.

The +/- stuff is an empty argument for all the reasons that all the data scientist people have been saying forever (needs bigger sample sizes, needs to regress for quality of opponents / teammates, needs luck factored out etc..). There are versions of looking at +/- data that mean something, but all the serious ones require more data and aren't relevant yet or easy to see on a box score.

And we gave up 70 to Miami with him.

I'm not saying Okoro isn't a good defender and doesn't help us on that end. I still think the trade overall is fine and I understand the vision in acquiring him. But so far, his defense isn't so good that it negates the lack of volume or threat in his offensive game.

Teams do not care about him. And the offense doesn't really generate much for him. In a sense, the Bulls offense is working around his limitations. He has hit 1 three or less in 10 of his 15 games so far. That's weak for a 3D starting role.

[GoBlue72391]

One thing abundantly clear from the last 2 games - Okoro is our ONLY lockdown defender. Without him on defense, we can’t stop anything. He is a highly valuable piece for us. Need him back ASAP

I wouldn't call him a lockdown by any means, but he's our best perimeter defender.