Official Wizards Draft Thread: Version 2.0

[tsvqt]

I LIKE Pecherov + #18 for Lowry + #28. I don't like the AD for Kapono part.

Trade AD for cap relief. Then we'd have cap room for Mason.

You gotta really like what Mason gave us this year. That said, I think one
should expect that N1 will be taking that role away from him. One of those
2 guys could be redundant. Given that N1 is on a rookie contract and RMjr
is a UFA after a breakout season, add in N1's youth and the scales clearly
tilt in that direction. JMO.

N1 in a backcourt with a healthy Agent Zero is a scary prospect for defenses
(and possibly an enticing prospect for offenses, opp that is....but 0 and 1 will
have to work to live that down).

Oh wow. We need to start referring to the Arenas-Young backcourt as "The General Lee."

Yes, and if we had a defense, we could take the team name of Dukes of Hazard!! Oh well, without defense, we're really not very hazardous to any team's offense!!

[mohammed10]

Given that this thread is over 10 pgs long (not to mention that I am feeling tire and lazy!), I assume you guys are either on the Roy Hibbert bandwagon or not.

Given EG's penchant for drafting the BPA, what do you draftnicks think about Courtney Lee from W Ky (recent draft profile on this here website)? Would he be too redundant with NY1?

[tsvqt]

Given that this thread is over 10 pgs long (not to mention that I am feeling tire and lazy!), I assume you guys are either on the Roy Hibbert bandwagon or not.

Given EG's penchant for drafting the BPA, what do you draftnicks think about Courtney Lee from W Ky (recent draft profile on this here website)? Would he be too redundant with NY1?

Then you REALLY have a "General Lee" backcourt!! Arenas = #0, Young = #1, and the actual name LEE!
You guys amaze me.

[mohammed10]

Guess I walked right into that one...geez.

[RickRoll_inDC]

Given that this thread is over 10 pgs long (not to mention that I am feeling tire and lazy!), I assume you guys are either on the Roy Hibbert bandwagon or not.

Given EG's penchant for drafting the BPA, what do you draftnicks think about Courtney Lee from W Ky (recent draft profile on this here website)? Would he be too redundant with NY1?

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

ok, so i'm biased against him since he played for W Ky, who took out my Drake team in the tourney.
I just get bad memories- very bad memories- whenever I think of Western Kentucky......

but yay, roy hibbert

[Dat2U]

Roy Hibbert will not be the Wizards draft pick. I'm 99.9% sure of that. I personally think EG wil go out of his way to avoid making the "homer" pick that symbolized Susan O'Malley & the mom & pop type organization the team has employed in the past. No more Juan Dixon type selections for the Wizards.

I'm not saying Roy would be a bad pick, because I really think he'll have a decent role in the league for years to come. He's just not EG's type of player. EG wants upside. DeAndre Jordan or Javale McGee and maybe even Alexis Ajinca are more likely to be the choice at #18.

If I had to guess EG's pick right now, I'd bet DeAndre Jordan, who's stock is slipping, won't slide past #18.

[Wiz99]

Roy Hibbert will not be the Wizards draft pick. I'm 99.9% sure of that. I personally think EG wil go out of his way to avoid making the "homer" pick that symbolized Susan O'Malley & the mom & pop type organization the team has employed in the past. No more Juan Dixon type selections for the Wizards.

I'm not saying Roy would be a bad pick, because I really think he'll have a decent role in the league for years to come. He's just not EG's type of player. EG wants upside. DeAndre Jordan or Javale McGee and maybe even Alexis Ajinca are more likely to be the choice at #18.

If I had to guess EG's pick right now, I'd bet DeAndre Jordan, who's stock is slipping, won't slide past #18.

The Juan Dixon anology is a good one for drafting Hibbert, though maybe not only for the reason you refer to (B-level hucksterism to put a few butts in the seats with a local kid).

Both Dixon and Hibbert lack a fundamental physical skill that just pulls the rug out from underneath their other assets: Juan Didlio's speed on the break and (occasionally hot) shooting were cancelled out by his tiny size that lets other teams just abuse him with the post up. And Hibbert's 7'2" frame is cancelled out by how damn slow he is. Size ain't no damn good if your man is halfway down the court diving to the rim unguarded because you're still lumbering across halfcourt.

Hibbert could get away with it in college because he was so much taller than anyone else on the court and Gtown played an absurdly slow paced game. But he'll get eaten alive in the NBA where even reserves are as tall as him, and the game's played twice as fast.

Or do you want EJ to slow Gil, Caron, AJ and the rest of the team down so our #18 rookie won't be left behind?

[closg00]

Interesting, the latest NBAdraft.net mock has us taking the other Lopez bro. Lopez has been invited to the green room also.

[rook6980]

Hibbert could get away with it in college because he was so much taller than anyone else on the court and Gtown played an absurdly slow paced game. But he'll get eaten alive in the NBA where even reserves are as tall as him, and the game's played twice as fast.

OK - so, besides Dwight Howard, tell me which of these Eastern Conference Centers are the 7'2" ("as tall") speed demons you're talking about... ???

Let's try to remember that if the Wizards draft Hibbert, he would be playing against mostly the reserves on this list.

This is a list of the top 30 Centers in the Eastern Conference by # minutes played:
1 Dwight Howard , ORL (Starter)
2 Andrew Bogut , MIL (Starter)
3 Samuel Dalembert , PHI (Starter)
4 * Al Horford , ATL (Starter)
5 Ben Wallace , CLE-CHI (Reserve)
6 Rasheed Wallace , DET (Starter AS A FORWARD)
7 Zydrunas Ilgauskas , CLE (Starter)
8 Brendan Haywood , WAS (Starter)
9 Anderson Varejao , CLE (Reserve)
10 Eddy Curry , NYK (Starter)
11 Josh Boone , NJN (Starter)
12 Kendrick Perkins , (Starter)
13 Jeff Foster , IND (Starter)
14 Andrea Bargnani , TOR (Starter)
15 Mark Blount , MIA 69 (Starter)
16 Rasho Nesterovic , TOR (Reserve)
17 * Joel Anthony , MIA (Reserve)
18 * Joakim Noah , CHI (PT Starter/Reserve)
19 Nazr Mohammed , CHA-DET (PT Starter/Reserve)
20 Theo Ratliff , DET-MIN (Reserve)
21 DeSagana Diop , NJN-DAL (Reserve)
22 Alonzo Mourning , MIA (Reserve)
23 Zaza Pachulia , ATL (Reserve)
24 David Harrison , IND (Reserve)
25 Dan Gadzuric , MIL (Reserve)
26 * Aaron Gray , CHI (Reserve)
26 Randolph Morris , NYK (Reserve)
28 Primoz Brezec , TOR-DET-CHA (Reserve)
29 Adonal Foyle , ORL (Reserve)
30 * Oleksiy Pecherov , WAS (Reserve)

[fishercob]

Roy Hibbert will not be the Wizards draft pick. I'm 99.9% sure of that. I personally think EG wil go out of his way to avoid making the "homer" pick that symbolized Susan O'Malley & the mom & pop type organization the team has employed in the past. No more Juan Dixon type selections for the Wizards.

I'm not saying Roy would be a bad pick, because I really think he'll have a decent role in the league for years to come. He's just not EG's type of player. EG wants upside. DeAndre Jordan or Javale McGee and maybe even Alexis Ajinca are more likely to be the choice at #18.

If I had to guess EG's pick right now, I'd bet DeAndre Jordan, who's stock is slipping, won't slide past #18.

That's silly. You think EG's not going to pick HIbbert because he wants to make a point? If he doesn't pick him, it will be because he thinks someone else is a better fit for the Wiz or is going to be a markedly better player. EG couldn't care less if a guy is from Georgetown, Maryland or China.

As to EG's penchant for drafting "upside," it''s somewhat a function of where the Wiz have picked. Yeah, Blatche was an upside pick, but he was a 2nd rounder. Nick Young had some NBA-ready game, but needs a lot of work in other areas too. Ernie's a pragmatist. I'd have to think that given the way the Wiz have been dominated inside by the Cavs for three straight years in the playoffs, he'd like the idea of someone who can help address that issue right away.

[fishercob]

Wiz99, I think you're blowing Hibbert's slowness out of proportion. He's not Muresan getting up and down the floor by any stretch. If his man is a step or two faster than him in terms of simple sprint speed, there are ways to mitigate that problem (guards helping to prevent the long pass, etc,.)

The chicken-egg pace question is one worth exploring, though. Did Georgetown play slow because of Hibbert or vice-versa? Is there any on-off data about G'town's pace available?

Yes, Gilbert plays at one of the fastest paces in the league. We saw that right away when he returned this year. But Hibbert would likely be playing primarily with the second unit anyway. He'd fit in just fine with AD and Mason. And finally, I don't think one slow center ruins a running team. Look at Kareem and Parrish. Those guys didn't run very much, but their teams sure did.

[Ruzious]

As long as Hibbert hits the defensive boards, he's not going to stop the Wiz from running. You can't run without the ball - as the old saying goes. And as Rook showed, his pace adjusted defensive rebounding was good. Even though people say they don't see big upside in Hibbert, I see a whole lot more upside than downside in him.

Arthur is the player I'm afraid that the Wiz will pick. He's a talented player, but he's a tweener - too small for PF with the skills of a PF. He has the potential to develop SF skills, but that's a major projection to expect him to get there.

[Soup's Uncle]

Yeah, I'd take Brook Lopez. I also don't think he'll be avaialable. I just view getting abother bug man as meaning Etan is gone (which I want). Brook Lopez also hits the glass.

[fishercob]

As long as Hibbert hits the defensive boards, he's not going to stop the Wiz from running. You can't run without the ball - as the old saying goes. And as Rook showed, his pace adjusted defensive rebounding was good. Even though people say they don't see big upside in Hibbert, I see a whole lot more upside than downside in him.

Arthur is the player I'm afraid that the Wiz will pick. He's a talented player, but he's a tweener - too small for PF with the skills of a PF. He has the potential to develop SF skills, but that's a major projection to expect him to get there.

Yeah, I'm not buying the lack of upside thing about HIbbert. No, he's not a high flier. But he's 21 and has shown a proclivity for improving his body and his skill set (unlike certain other young Wizards...ehem...Andray). He's got good mechanics on his "jumper" and has expanded his range nicely. he's got good footwork in the post and has already developed baby hooks with both hands. Given his track record of getting better, I see plenty of upside.

I truly have no idea about Arthur. The analysis on him is all over the map. The David West comparison is interesting, but do we really need another smallish frontcourt player?

I think Ernie's either going to draft someone who can contribute relatively early (Hibbert, Chalmers) or a bigtime upside pick that he can potentially package with Nick Young and expirings in a trade next summer -- BPA, or "MMA," as in "most marketable available."

[MF23]

Are people really saying part of the reason for EG not drafting a player is because he's local? That just suprised me.

Ok, after seeing draftexpress's statistical analyisis of PF's I'm turning to the Richard Hendrix fan club. Is there anyway this guy doesn't contribute in the NBA? Reading that he's come off great in interviews, has good hands and long arms tilts the scale in his favor. I would be happy if he was drafted at 18.

[doclinkin]

So, Walter Sharpe of UAB has become the first and only player that we have worked out twice. He's made some bad decisions though.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2008/6/9/ ... y-of-walte

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/wizardsi ... ate_6.html

One thing I like most about Ernie is that he was an early adopter of deep data stattery. His Knicks were one of the first to start tracking the "hockey-style +/-" for players (I remember Oakley using the stat to convince Riles to give him more playing time).

Additionally he's shown a willingness to gamble on players who have been overlooked due to non-basketball related issues. The Strangler Latrell Sprewell is an example.

Walter Sharpe is one of those cats. I've avoided getting happitty about his prospects when reflected against the knucklehead factor and the possibility of a bad influence on guys like Andray Blatche (who has made some bad decisions despite a ton of good influences in him, but hasn't had a real charismatic bad seed to encourage the devil on his other shoulder, while that poor overworked angel on his other side is busy deflecting bullets past his heart and assigning police officers to catch him in the act of paying to be used as someone's salty lollipop so he doesn't catch a bad way).

But that said (whatever it was I just said) Walter Sharpe has popped up a few times in stat spelunking, and I've kept an interest in him as a possible reclamation project.

See, what every team needs for defense is two players: an anchor in the paint who can alter the decision to shoot as much as or more than he actually alters shots; and a 'sic'em' perimeter guy who can take the best ballhandler/shooter on the other team and make them work for their shots, make them pass to the next best guy, slow them down enough that the help defense can recover underneath. But the best defensive teams also have that close-the-gap help defender who can swoop like superman and save the falling baby or whatever. Long, fast, strong, rebounding, shotblocking lane predator. Last year we looked at DMac as this ath-elite, and early returns suggest a bright future. For this year's version GMEG is apparently considering the possibility of Walter Sharpe as a late pick or undrafted utility defender who can actually score with power underneath and inject passion to the defense.

Ernie's apparently not the only guy who's noticed. Stat wise.

Sharpe shows up well in blocks per 40min adj. Steals per 40adj. Assists per 40 adj. and gets to the line at a fair clip. He may think he's a better passer than he is (tons of turnovers) or could be he's too aggressive in attacking the hoop (high FTA pace). But as an overlooked (undrafted?) steal, he looks like an interesting prospect.

[rook6980]

I keep reading various blogs; with posters saying we should take this guy or that guy. Mostly, they're talking about guys with great offensive numbers... or "tremendous athletic abilities" (runs like a deer, jumps out of the Gym)...

Let’s face it, the Wizards have lots of guys that can score the ball. The worst part of the Wizards game is on the Defensive end. Specifically, perimeter Defense. Where they were killed ALL LAST YEAR by teams shooting wide open 3-pointers, or allowing Guard penetration for easy layups, or kick-outs to open shooters…..

So, instead of looking at Offensive numbers...... I decided to look at which PG's might be best suited to the Wizards DEFENSIVE needs.

Obviously, if Russelll Westbrook were to fall to # 18, or if Mario Chalmers were to fall to #47 - I think the Wizards would jump at drafting them. Both are considered VERY GOOD defenders. (The Wizards may consider drafting Chalmers at #18, even though he's projected to be a high 2nd round pick. They may decide he's worth the risk at #18)...

But, assuming that they don't draft a PG at #18, then who would be available in the 2nd round at #47?

Goran Dragic (6'4"), an International player that got some good reviews out of the Reebok Eurocamp.
Lester Hudson (6'3") - more a "combo" guard.
Mike Taylor (6'2")
Jamont Gordon (6'3")

All those guys could become good NBA players.....but......... I was looking for someone that has an already existing NBA skill..... Nick Young, when he was drafted had an NBA ready skill - his ability to create his own shot. Some players were just born with a particular skill. Scoring. The ability to see the entire floor. Tremendous athletic ability. Great anticipation. Fabulous quickness or speed.

I really like Kyle Weaver. He is a real LOCK DOWN defender. He's been called the best defensive player in College Basketball. This kid was BORN to be a good defender. He’s tall (6′6″) and long - He can defend PG, SG, and SF; all with same results. Night in and night out, he defended the other teams best players (some of the best players in the Country)... and consistently shut them down.

He has PG skills: Great handle, good passer, can penetrate, high basketball IQ, can break the press, and a low turn over ratio - but because Washington State used a 3 Point Guard Offense, he didn’t get to put up PG numbers in College… but he has the skills. The main knock against him is that he does not have a consistent long range shot. (Dave Hoopla???)

What do you guys think of Kyle Weaver as the #47 pick for the Wiz? (if he's still available)...

[doclinkin]

Roy Hibbert will not be the Wizards draft pick. I'm 99.9% sure of that. I personally think EG wil go out of his way to avoid making the "homer" pick that symbolized Susan O'Malley & the mom & pop type organization the team has employed in the past. No more Juan Dixon type selections for the Wizards.

I'm not saying Roy would be a bad pick, because I really think he'll have a decent role in the league for years to come. He's just not EG's type of player. EG wants upside. DeAndre Jordan or Javale McGee and maybe even Alexis Ajinca are more likely to be the choice at #18.

If I had to guess EG's pick right now, I'd bet DeAndre Jordan, who's stock is slipping, won't slide past #18.

Said this all before but the RealGM re-set ate it, so:

Ernie looks for upside more than proven players _after_ the pool of proven talent+production runs out. Which, considering the relative success of his teams, is where he most often drafts. What's important though is that he weighs 'system' and 'fit' heavily in the equation. When the Wiz picked him up he said it is important to him to try to build a team according to the vision of it's head coach. Only then can you truly evaluate the coach and the system. If you build the team around him that he wants and still doesn't succeed that's when you can blow it all up and start over.

The Jamison swap is one example (dropping team cancer Stackhouse and picking up perimeter forward Jamison for the #6 pick). You get proven production, undervalued on its team --despite 6MOY status--- and good fit for the coaches' offense, system.

Picks like PJR (too late to pick anything but upside) and Blatche (ditto) tend to underscore the idea. Ramos looked like a nice passer at the center spot, huge mobile, active, though either young/immature or stone-stupid and lazy. If he pans out he's a nice Princeton fit. Ditto multi-talented forward Dray Blatche: skilled passer, hybrid/combo/tweener raw talents -- possible mouthbreather but could just be young.

A guy like Pech is a perfect example though. Here we had some difficulty because the Wiz' only chance of scoring was when our perimeter big forward was in the game unclogging the paint. But the coach had a maddening tendency to go small to favor offense and ignore defense (for grit and guts defensive guy like GMEG this had to rankle) to the solution was to select a big hustling but skilled back-up to the undersized Gentleman Jamison. The Wiz looked at Hilton Armstrong, Ced Simmons, etc. more than Hilton's college frontcourt partner Josh Boone (no face-up game even if he had better college production than Hilton). But fellow Princeton system coach and sometime rival Byron Scott snatched up both Simmons (who shot the ball well in workouts and played in a Princeton system in college) and Armstrong, and in any case when the big goofy Ukrainian was matched against Armstrong he apparently crushed him in the Wiz workout. To the extent that the Wiz frontoffice pretended they never worked him out (not posted on their website).

A sevenfooter with an outside shot who works like demon? We could suddenly insert a 7foot hunchback in our frontline to replace Jamison's offense instead of going small to inject a notch of scoring. And hey maybe he can even play center, or at least as well as Jamison can...

Jury's till out on that one. But the principle's still sound, as a late 1st round gamble. The other best talent available were all point guards like Farmar, Marcus Williams, Rajon Rondo. And we already had AD plus Gil. So if you rank the tiers as equivalent talent, you pick the big guy and find your back-up PG elsewhere/when.

The question marks on Big Hibba and 'fit' only have to do with pace. But EJ out of necessity has been willing to adjust pace and improve defense as long as the offense doesn't fall apart. And again, all the frontcourt wrinkles he has added over the past year + playoffs have been stolen directly from Hibbert's play at Gtown, publicly admitted and avowed by EJ. I fully expect if he had a frontcourt Princeton passer and effective reliable scorer he'd play Hibbert no problem.

No there's no reason why the GM would shoot himself in the foot and avoid picking a local player whom he knows to be effective and an ideal fit for the team, who could improve team size and bench defense and who is coveted by the coach and has a proven track record at the hardest position to draft. Not unless there were an instant-fit SF or ideal future PG who were of far better talent and as right for the system.

But that said, I don't see HIbbert available at 18. Just doesn't jibe. Don't ring true. Donte Green, DeAndre Jordan will slip that far, but I don't want a piece of them. Nor McGee. Ajinca? Eh. Of the pure talent types I don't see any who fall to 18 that I'd want. We'd probably take Mario Chalmers in that case, maybe Donte Greene and hope to use him as a trade asset. I'd rather trade out/down.

[fishercob]

Agree on all fronts, doc. Hibbert's a player, and he won't be there when we pick.

[rook6980]

But that said, I don't see HIbbert available at 18.

You're probably right doclinkin

The way DeAndre Jordan's and JaVale McGee's stock have been free falling in this draft, it wouldn't surprise me if either the 76ers or Toronto pick Hibbert.

Toronto especially likes Hibbert, and would love a front line with Hibbert and Bosh.