Official Wizards Draft Thread: Version 2.0

[GhostOfKwame]

No one has mentioned Andy Katz claiming the Wizards might be moving up to get Rush? Also said we really like Lopez.

This might one of those rare times I'm down for trading down in an NBA draft, it's usually what I want in the NFL draft. If we could trade down to the low to mid 20s and pick up a future 1st rounder, that sounds pretty good to me.

Don't hear much Rush talk on here, you guys just thinking he won't be around I guess? Seems like someone who'd help us right away, and he's a great defender, which is critical. Looks like he could turn into a great #3 option. Also, insurance for when we realize Young will never develope the maturity/focus he needs to make an impact... and if Young was to somehow get his **** straight we could deal Butler and Jamison for a complete stud big, while starting Rush at SF.

Dunno if I'd trade up, but I think Rush is underrated. I want plenty of 6'6-6'10 athletic defenders on my team, especially having to deal with Lebron for the next 15 years

[Wizardspride]

Also, insurance for when we realize Young will never develope the maturity/focus he needs to make an impact...

Out of curiosity, how do you know that Young will never mature?

[fishercob]

I'd be OK with Greene as the pick. Let him light up the D-league for a while, increase his curb appeal and move him next year. He strikes me as someone -- like Nick Young -- who would be a very intriguing trade prospect to a rebuilding team.

[Cigamodnalro]

My magic eight ball gives me inside information: http://realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=816728

[LyricalRico]

Don't hear much Rush talk on here, you guys just thinking he won't be around I guess?

We talked about him a lot a couple weeks ago. There was a bandwagon going briefly, IIRC. But then guys like Speights started moving up into our range and others started falling into our range and Rush got lost in the shuffle.

I think you can make similar arguments for Rush as you can about Hibbert - ready to play right away, fits the system, will improve team defense, etc. I just think a lot of people here still want potential stars, which is why they aren't excited about a guy like Rush who projects as more of a role player.

But "role player" doesn't mean scrub. I think the guy could eventually be a starter who averages double figure ppg while playing excellent defense. Basically a bigger DeShawn Stevenson with better skills and zero off-court question marks. I don't know about you but that sounds fine for the #18 pick if you ask me.

Shoot, I wouldn't mind getting both Hibbert and Rush. We could immediately plug them into our bench and they would help us win games. I'm probably dreaming here but could we use Blatche/Etan/Pesh to get us into the mid-first?

Haywood/Hibbert
Jamison/Songaila
Butler/Rush
Stevenson/Young
Arenas/Daniels

[doclinkin]

I'd be OK with Greene as the pick. Let him light up the D-league for a while, increase his curb appeal and move him next year. He strikes me as someone -- like Nick Young -- who would be a very intriguing trade prospect to a rebuilding team.

Unless he also showed as a primadonna no-defense shotjacker in the D-League. No matter what, I'd far rather get a player than a prospect. He's big, has a nice shot, defends okay despite short arms, but all-in-all I'd rather have a trade down for Pat Calathes plus something. Lesser talent, same height, better ball IQ and one more chance at a late draft steal.

May just be my personal prejudices tho'. Nowadays anytime I hear a player comes outta B'more I'm thinking: thug friends close to home; then thinking: more trouble for Andray Blatche when they start hanging out. No offense, Baltimore, just saying. If I want a Boulevard thug on my team I want him playing Defense (Joey Dorsey) not looking pretty on the perimeter.

BTW, still sulking at the (temporary?) death of the 'Left Field Analysis' thread (and not prepping a MetaDraft in protest, probably) but as for the metas on whether he lives up to his potential/becomes a team player or simply thinks he's better than he is: DGreene shares a birthday with underachieving megatalent Steve Francis, and next to zero other NBAers ever.

[TheKingOfVa360]

I think DeAndre Jordan will be there at 18. IMO, we have to take him. He's got far too much potential not to have him as the pick. He's already a great rebounder and shotblocker.

I agree we have to take him with that pick. He is a diamond in the ruff. It's time to swing to the fences with these picks. EG is great at drafting and he will do the right thing.

Also it's time Nick Young and Blatche start if we can't get a new PF instead of AJ. I would love to go after Josh Smith.

[nate33]

Has anyone seen Hollinger's recent draft projections? He uses statistical regression techniques, backtested to 2002, to project the 3rd year PER of today's college players. His system appears to be more accurate than the collective wisdom of the NBA GM's making the picks.

Here's how Hollinger projects the PG's:
D.J. Augustin, Texas (14.88);
Derrick Rose, Memphis (14.69);
Mario Chalmers, Kansas (14.03);
Jerryd Bayless, Arizona (14.03).
Mike Green, Butler (12.75)

The wings:
Joe Alexander, West Virginia (14.58).
Donte Greene, Syracuse (13.17);
O.J. Mayo, USC (13.00);
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis (12.78).
Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State (12.35);
Reggie Williams, VMI (12.22);

And the bigs:
Michael Beasley, Kansas State, 19.31
Kevin Love, UCLA, 17.80
Darrell Arthur, Kansas, 15.82;
Marreese Speights, Florida, 15.02
Brook Lopez, Stanford 14.21;
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown 14.05
Kosta Koufos, Ohio State, 13.32;
Darnell Jackson, Kansas 13.17;
DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M, 13.17;
Richard Hendrix, Alabama, 12.95; J
ason Thompson, Rider, 12.77;
D.J. White, Indiana 12.63;
Trent Plaisted, BYU 12.61
Walter Sharpe, UAB, 12.45;
Joseph Jones, Texas A&M 12.36,
J.J. Hickson, N.C. State, 12.31;
JaVale McGee, Nevada, 12.25;
James Gist, Maryland, 12.23;
Sasha Kaun, Kansas, 12.09;
Robin Lopez, Stanford, 12.08.

Basically, guys with predicted PER's 14 or higher are fairly likely to be regular rotation players. Guys with predicted PERs in the 12.5-14 range are hit and miss. Guys with predicted PERs below 12.5 are unlikely to be regular rotation players. Guys with predicted PERs below 10 have no chance.

Arthur, Speights, Chalmers and Hibbert appear to be the best prospects potentially available when we pick.

Statistically, this draft is really weak at the wing position. There's Joe Alexander and that's it.

[Ruzious]

Arthur, Speights, Chalmers and Hibbert appear to be the best prospects potentially available when we pick.

Statistically, this draft is really weak at the wing position. There's Joe Alexander and that's it.

I think he needs to work on his system - considering he has a 6'8.5 216 lb PF (Arthur) as the 3rd best player in the draft.

Edit - I'm amazed he doesn't have Rush even listed. Maybe that's due to his injury.

[Ruzious]

No one has mentioned Andy Katz claiming the Wizards might be moving up to get Rush? Also said we really like Lopez.

This might one of those rare times I'm down for trading down in an NBA draft, it's usually what I want in the NFL draft. If we could trade down to the low to mid 20s and pick up a future 1st rounder, that sounds pretty good to me.

Don't hear much Rush talk on here, you guys just thinking he won't be around I guess? Seems like someone who'd help us right away, and he's a great defender, which is critical. Looks like he could turn into a great #3 option. Also, insurance for when we realize Young will never develope the maturity/focus he needs to make an impact... and if Young was to somehow get his **** straight we could deal Butler and Jamison for a complete stud big, while starting Rush at SF.

Dunno if I'd trade up, but I think Rush is underrated. I want plenty of 6'6-6'10 athletic defenders on my team, especially having to deal with Lebron for the next 15 years

I'd be happy with Rush and would definitely take him over Greene. He's a great catch and shoot guy, plays defense, understands how to take advantage of transitions, and doesn't hog the ball. He'd fit in from day 1. So what if he doesn't take his man off the dribble and isn't 6'10. As long as Gil and Caron and Young are here, we don't need him to.

[miller31time]

May just be my personal prejudices tho'. Nowadays anytime I hear a player comes outta B'more I'm thinking: thug friends close to home; then thinking: more trouble for Andray Blatche when they start hanging out. No offense, Baltimore, just saying. If I want a Boulevard thug on my team I want him playing Defense (Joey Dorsey) not looking pretty on the perimeter.

He's actually a really good guy with no "thug persona". He has a great, tight-knit family and a warm personality.

(IMO)

[TheKingOfVa360]

May just be my personal prejudices tho'. Nowadays anytime I hear a player comes outta B'more I'm thinking: thug friends close to home; then thinking: more trouble for Andray Blatche when they start hanging out. No offense, Baltimore, just saying. If I want a Boulevard thug on my team I want him playing Defense (Joey Dorsey) not looking pretty on the perimeter.

Don Imus is that you? I wonder if he wasn't black and was from Baltimore would you think the same thing.

[nate33]

Arthur, Speights, Chalmers and Hibbert appear to be the best prospects potentially available when we pick.

Statistically, this draft is really weak at the wing position. There's Joe Alexander and that's it.

I think he needs to work on his system - considering he has a 6'8.5 216 lb PF (Arthur) as the 3rd best player in the draft.

Edit - I'm amazed he doesn't have Rush even listed. Maybe that's due to his injury.

I'm confused about the Arthur rating too. I looked at his pace adjusted per 40 stats and came away unimpressed. I expected him to be have efficient scoring numbers, or unusually low turnovers, or unusually high steals and blocks - something that would rank him high statistically despite unextraordinary numbers in points, rebounds and assists. But I saw nothing that stood out. He's a pretty good (but not great) shot blocker for his size. That's it.

Rush did make Hollinger's rankings. His projected PER is an abysmal 11.34. According to Hollinger, he's a fringe 2nd rounder with little potential to be successful NBA player.

[doclinkin]

Basically, guys with predicted PER's 14 or higher are fairly likely to be regular rotation players. Guys with predicted PERs in the 12.5-14 range are hit and miss. Guys with predicted PERs below 12.5 are unlikely to be regular rotation players. Guys with predicted PERs below 10 have no chance.

All with the understanding that PER overrates rebounding a little (favoring PF's especially) and has no really effective measure of defense. A guy like Arthur will probably still be able to score in the NBA, but not much else.

[doclinkin]

I wonder if he wasn't black and was from Baltimore would you think the same thing.

Yep! It's a deeply-held prejudice generally against all things Baltimorean. Honestly, what good ever came outta Baltimore?

He's actually a really good guy with no "thug persona". He has a great, tight-knit family and a warm personality.

That's alright then.

[Ruzious]

Basically, guys with predicted PER's 14 or higher are fairly likely to be regular rotation players. Guys with predicted PERs in the 12.5-14 range are hit and miss. Guys with predicted PERs below 12.5 are unlikely to be regular rotation players. Guys with predicted PERs below 10 have no chance.

All with the understanding that PER overrates rebounding a little (favoring PF's especially) and has no really effective measure of defense. A guy like Arthur will probably still be able to score in the NBA, but not much else.

The thing I really did like about Arthur is his turnaround jumper - the closest thing I've seen to Elvin Hayes' since... Elvin Hayes. I don't think I've seen anyone use that shot since Hayes - just like nobody's copied Lew Alcindor's sky hook. Maybe when they said they were patented shots, they meant it literally? If Arthur was just a little taller and broader, he'd be a special player, because he does have a variety of quick spins and moves to the basket - and goes up "with authority" - though he does not have a good verticle leap - according to the pre draft measurement.

[80sballboy]

I'm beginning to like Arthur the more I think about it. If he's there, he's a solid pick and I don't think he'll be a guy that disappoints. In other words, not a lot of risk.

He appears bigger than 215. I think he played in college at around 225-230 and he does have a strong body. His numbers were pedestrian in college, but he averaged just 24mpg and played a team that was absolutely loaded. They didn't need him to score 25 like Beasley (not saying he's that good) or to get 10+ rebounds. Good athlete. Good post moves. Better than taking a shot on Koufos, who's super soft or some other Euro.

http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profile ... rthur.html

[newslowsad]

Ernie holding a presser at 2 PM today.

[LyricalRico]

^ Is that something that was already scheduled as sort of a pre-draft meeting with the media? Or was this something he just set up?

[fugop]

^^^^ Is Moute that good of a defender, or does he look so good because UCLA has a great team defensive scheme? I'm sure EG will figure out if Greene can play defense. While it would be nice to have a LeBron pest, it's also important to make LeBron work on both ends of the court, especially since he's dangerous if he's playing off his man.

Yeah, he's that good of a defender. UCLA's defensive schemes really struggled when he wasn't on the court, though he didn't have a great (or any, really) backup.

UCLA would typically use three types of rotations:

Collison/Shipp/Mbah a Moute/Love/(Mata/Aboya)
Collison/Westbrook/Shipp/Mbah a Moute/Love

I'm friends with a guy who runs the BruinsNation blog. They are pretty down on Luc Richard, as he certainly never lived up to expectations. An interesting article from the 2006 tournament, when he shut down Big Baby Davis:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/sport ... moute.html

The disappointment aside (and the somewhat inflated opinion of himself), he and Aboya are the players that took UCLA to three straight final fours. They are the "tough" defenders that were able to dominate the Charmin soft PAC-10 for three straight years.

He's probably not even going to get drafted. Dude can't shoot. But I'd love to bring him in to summer camp or pick him up with a late, cheaply acquired, 2nd. He's big, strong, quick, and smart.