Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[Tiago]

If anyone want to look at his stats, just visit this site:

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/p ... code=e2008

I saw 2 games of Olympiacos and he didn't impressed me at all, I already saw a much better Josh Childress in NBA.

[doclinkin]

On the plus side. We're still on track, the only part of the plan to 'tank with dignity' that has gone out the window is the 'with dignity' part.

Brendan Haywood gets his cast off next week (Monday) then begins the long process of regaining strength. The first of the year is just around the corner and we hear about Gil playing in a spirited game of one-on-one vs JCritter. We're building a cushion of losses now, even if we manage to win a string by accident when we get players back. We'll still qualify for a nice pick, or two. Danny Green of UNC may fall to an early round 2 pick (defensive, spot up shooter, decent passer this year). Plus a quality lotto top pick. There are decent players who will be around in the late lotto. Always are.

[Dat2U]

I originally was going to post this in the Open Letter thread but I thought it was more appropriate here:


It's been so long since Arenas has played, I think many have forgotten how good he can be. Anyone who wants him gone is a fool (unless, of course, Arenas can't regain his old form).

I also think it's a bad idea to move him to SG. Arenas just isn't as effective as an off-the-ball scorer. He's not the kind of guy who comes around picks a la Rip Hamilton. He needs the ball in isolation so he can kill you with a three or take it to the rack. He puts so much pressure on the defense with his ridiculous range and his willingness to shoot from anywhere.

That said, there is something to the argument that when Arenas plays, the rest of the team has a tendency to stand around a bit too much on offense. Arenas' first instinct isn't to set others up for easy buckets. That makes Arenas a difficult guy to build around - difficult, but not impossible. The more I think about it, the more I think that this team MUST invest major resources into finding that ideal backcourt mate for Arenas. We need a Manu Ginobili to San Antonio's Tony Parker. We need an Eric Snow to Philly's Allen Iverson. We need a Joe Dumars to Detroit's Isiah Thomas.

It's possible to find a big guard who can pass. They're rare but they're out there. Larry Hughes was actually a good fit except for the constant injuries. I think we can all agree that Deshawn Stevenson isn't that guy. Kirk HInrich is a possibility but he's a little small. Manu is too old (and unavailable, anyhow). Brandan Roy is too good (and thus, unavailable).

So who is left? I can think of 1 guy who would be a perfect fit, but he may be too expensive. That's Joe Johnson. The problem with getting him is that our best trade assets: Butler and Jamison, play positions where Atlanta is already stocked.

Iguodala is a possibility but he's really more of a SF than a guard.

Hinrich is available and may be the best fit for the price.

Can Rudy Fernandez fill the role? How are his handles? Is he really a Manu clone or is he more like a Reggie Miller? How is his defense?

Jamal Crawford can handle and pass, but he's a gunner who shoots inefficiently. Can he be reigned in? Can he handle defensive duties as a full time SG?

Mike Miller is currently averaging 5.4 assists per 40 minutes in Minnesota. They're obviously building toward the future so he shouldn't cost too much.

I've thought for the longest, ever since Hughes left, that the Wizards would be best served to have a secondary ballhandler next to Gil that can create for himself & others. That's why I never viewed DeShawn as a good fit and only saw him as a stopgap option.

Putting a ballhandler next to Gil takes the pressure off of him to be a scorer & distributor and he can concentrate on what he does best. Even still he'd get 6 assists a game just based on defenses concentrating on him. Joe Johnson is a perfect fit to Gil and I think he'd really open up the offense with his ability to hit shots, getting to the basket & find the open man. He's also a solid defender at the 2guard position and has great size.

My 2nd choice would be Rudy Fernandez who reminds me so much of a young Ginobili. He's fearless at attacking the basket, hitting the outside shot & his ability to handle the rock and get the ball to others.

I always thought Jamal Crawford would breakout here much like Hughes did. He shoots the J a bit too much for my taste but he's got the requiste skills as a ballhandler and slasher and he create for others as well (at least in theory).

Iggy would work well b/c he can defend the tougher perimeter matchup regardless of size allowing us to cover Caron's defensive defiencies. He's a great slasher, decent ballhandler & good passer. His only problem is his jumper, but frankly I think we take too many jumpers as a team already. We are pretty much a jump shooting team as currently constructed, and we could use a top notch athletic slasher to utlilize those lanes created by spacing the floor as much as we talk about the importance of spacing.

Hinrich scares me, he's just sucked so bad the past two years. I wonder what's happenned to his game. When he's playing his best he's a pesky defender, decent shooter with range & a solid ballhandler. But I haven't seen him play at his best in a long time. At his current salary I'd hesitate big time on acquiring him.

[Ruzious]

On the plus side. We're still on track, the only part of the plan to 'tank with dignity' that has gone out the window is the 'with dignity' part.

Brendan Haywood gets his cast off next week (Monday) then begins the long process of regaining strength. The first of the year is just around the corner and we hear about Gil playing in a spirited game of one-on-one vs JCritter. We're building a cushion of losses now, even if we manage to win a string by accident when we get players back. We'll still qualify for a nice pick, or two. Danny Green of UNC may fall to an early round 2 pick (defensive, spot up shooter, decent passer this year). Plus a quality lotto top pick. There are decent players who will be around in the late lotto. Always are.

Green is the small forward shot-blocker we need! Actually, he's a very underrated swingman who could be a heckuva backup swingman.

[WizarDynasty]

Just curious..if we were to look for a free agent signing or draft pick who is above average offensively and also an above average man to man defender..mean he regularly holds his position below their season average...who would be available to us?

[Hendrix]

What about your pick, and some youg guys for Bosh? Then maybe move Jamison for a SG, or run a great/deep frontcourt rotation.

I think when everyone's healthy this could be a sick lineup.

Arenas
Young
Butler
Bosh-Jamison
Haywood-Bosh.

[nate33]

What about your pick, and some youg guys for Bosh? Then maybe move Jamison for a SG, or run a great/deep frontcourt rotation.

I think when everyone's healthy this could be a sick lineup.

Arenas
Young
Butler
Bosh-Jamison
Haywood-Bosh.

Must of us are in favor of a Bosh trade. I'd readily give up the 2010 contracts of James and Etan plus our 2009 lotto pick, plus Young and McGee for Bosh. Of course, Bosh would have to agree to an extension first.

Most Toronto fans have shot that trade proposal down. Understandably, they think that they should get more in return for the best young PF in the game. Under normal circumstances, they probably would. But with Bosh contemplating leaving, Toronto doesn't have the same leverage.

It all boils down to the market. Who will put together the most competitive package for Bosh? I think the Wizards could be in the mix.

[doclinkin]

Funny. I just referenced a Bosh trade in the 40 mins for Antawn thread. Yes. I'd like Chris Bosh. We'd have two funny blog superstars. Problem with my concept is, even if EJ lands in Toronto to coach I think he'd like to keep Bosh over his friend Antawn. Never know though. Loyalty is huge.

All depends on the value of that lotto pick. CBosh right now is better than most lotto selections. Most. And will be over the next 3 years at minimum.

[hands11]

I originally was going to post this in the Open Letter thread but I thought it was more appropriate here:


It's been so long since Arenas has played, I think many have forgotten how good he can be. Anyone who wants him gone is a fool (unless, of course, Arenas can't regain his old form).

I also think it's a bad idea to move him to SG. Arenas just isn't as effective as an off-the-ball scorer. He's not the kind of guy who comes around picks a la Rip Hamilton. He needs the ball in isolation so he can kill you with a three or take it to the rack. He puts so much pressure on the defense with his ridiculous range and his willingness to shoot from anywhere.

That said, there is something to the argument that when Arenas plays, the rest of the team has a tendency to stand around a bit too much on offense. Arenas' first instinct isn't to set others up for easy buckets. That makes Arenas a difficult guy to build around - difficult, but not impossible. The more I think about it, the more I think that this team MUST invest major resources into finding that ideal backcourt mate for Arenas. We need a Manu Ginobili to San Antonio's Tony Parker. We need an Eric Snow to Philly's Allen Iverson. We need a Joe Dumars to Detroit's Isiah Thomas.

It's possible to find a big guard who can pass. They're rare but they're out there. Larry Hughes was actually a good fit except for the constant injuries. I think we can all agree that Deshawn Stevenson isn't that guy. Kirk HInrich is a possibility but he's a little small. Manu is too old (and unavailable, anyhow). Brandan Roy is too good (and thus, unavailable).

So who is left? I can think of 1 guy who would be a perfect fit, but he may be too expensive. That's Joe Johnson. The problem with getting him is that our best trade assets: Butler and Jamison, play positions where Atlanta is already stocked.

Iguodala is a possibility but he's really more of a SF than a guard.

Hinrich is available and may be the best fit for the price.

Can Rudy Fernandez fill the role? How are his handles? Is he really a Manu clone or is he more like a Reggie Miller? How is his defense?

Jamal Crawford can handle and pass, but he's a gunner who shoots inefficiently. Can he be reigned in? Can he handle defensive duties as a full time SG?

Mike Miller is currently averaging 5.4 assists per 40 minutes in Minnesota. They're obviously building toward the future so he shouldn't cost too much.

I've read threw that nicely done detailed brake down of our mistakes and the rest of the posts until I finished with yours and the answer is the same.

BH, AB, AJ, CB, GA

That is what this team is waiting to put on the floor. CB is that SG your talking about. He can hit out to the 3 or back down the smaller players. He isn't GA or NY on a drive but he has pretty good handles. He can pass. Hell, he is practically our PG right now. He and GA and can get it done at the 1 and 2. Part of what needs to happen in something I have long awaited and that is for GA to mature so that he knows when to set up his teammates and when to go off. It's something that great scorers don't settle into until they have been around 5-6 years or so..except Labron who learned it early. It's the lesson MJ and Kobe had to learn. They can't score enough on their own to beat the best teams on a regular basis.

It takes teammates getting involved with ball movement. People would stand around with GA because he didn't get them involved enough. To often, he was a better option. This is the problem of having a top 5 scorer who is a PG. You have to get others involved and help them grow so they are there for you later when you need them. You have to use your post players to beat on the other team and get them emotionally involved and get to other team in foul trouble. Just like BH did last year. They got him his early and then he was into it for the game. I'd rather a truck hit a truck then a Porche.

And with this as your starters

BH, AB, AJ, CB, GA

you have

McGee, DSong, DMAC, NY, DS, James, Dixon That 12 with 3 inactive.

Etan, OP, Crit

So we need a back up point guard out of James, Crit, Dixon
We need an athletic PF as a 2nd option to DSong or you get a bigger SF who will eventually push AJ to the bench. How ever you do it, DS needs to go so he doesn't eat into NYs mins off the bench and eat up a roster spot we need.

I see no need for OP. Etan is to expensive. Dixon is not needed if you keep James and Crit.

So we have at least OP, Etan, Dixon and DS to get ride of. How do we do that ?
I wouldn't mind having Dixon in the wings as #13 if we can do it. Crit can be #14

[nate33]

And with this as your starters

BH, AB, AJ, CB, GA

If Blatche continues to improve, these may indeed be our best 5 players. I'd like to see Butler lose a bit more weight and try to get quicker on his feet if he's going to be a full time SG, though. I think he could do it.

My biggest concern with that lineup is Jamison's defense at SF. There's a lot of real good scoring SF's in this league, and Jamison can't guard any of them. Jamison can exploit his size in the post against SF's, but he's going to have a little trouble doing so with Haywood and Blatche clogging the lane. Besides, we can post up Butler just as easily so Jamison in the post would be redundant.

I guess what I'm saying is that if we were to go with Butler at SG and Blatche at PF, I think we'd be better off trading Jamison for a defensive-minded SF who can nail a 3-pointer. We wouldn't really need much else offensively from that spot. A guy like Battier would be ideal. Martell Webster could work out too. Both Houston and Portland might be open to a Jamison trade.

Trade Jamison + Stevenson + Etan for Martell Webster and Raef LaFrentz. That solves the Stevenson problem and the Etan problem. We avoid the luxury tax and we get younger. Our lineup would look like this:

PG Arenas/Crittenton
SG Butler/Young
SF Webster/DMac
PF Blatche/DSong
C Haywood/McGee

That team is huge but still has skills. Furthermore, the team is flexible enough to make room for a lotto pick at nearly any position except center. A PF would replace DSong and push Blatche. A SF would displace DMac and vie with Webster for the starting spot. A SG could start with Butler sliding back to SF. And a PG could back up Arenas.

[Hendrix]

What about your pick, and some youg guys for Bosh? Then maybe move Jamison for a SG, or run a great/deep frontcourt rotation.

I think when everyone's healthy this could be a sick lineup.

Arenas
Young
Butler
Bosh-Jamison
Haywood-Bosh.

Must of us are in favor of a Bosh trade. I'd readily give up the 2010 contracts of James and Etan plus our 2009 lotto pick, plus Young and McGee for Bosh. Of course, Bosh would have to agree to an extension first.

Most Toronto fans have shot that trade proposal down. Understandably, they think that they should get more in return for the best young PF in the game. Under normal circumstances, they probably would. But with Bosh contemplating leaving, Toronto doesn't have the same leverage.

It all boils down to the market. Who will put together the most competitive package for Bosh? I think the Wizards could be in the mix.

I was one of the ones taht shot you down. Although your thread came up after we had only sucked for a few games really, but now that we're 20 something games into the season I think the team needs to look in a new direction. Not because Bosh isn;t a great player, but just because the team isn't currently in a great situation to either retain him, and even of they do giving him a big contract when you don't have peices around him makes it really hard to build a team.

I think Washington is a great trading partner for a couple reasons. 1 being it's a place Bosh would want to stay. They will have the team that can compete with him, a gaurd that can perform in the clutch, and he'll be able to get significantly more money.

I mean for starters they can offer him more right off the bat because of bord rights. I think like $33 million more. Then Was doesn;t have state or city tax like NYC. The tax alone on $100 million is a difference of a~$10 million between NYC, and WAS.

Would Butler, Mcgee, and a 1st be too much? Just kind of trying to get an idea.

[nate33]

Would Butler, Mcgee, and a 1st be too much? Just kind of trying to get an idea.

It would be tough to give up Butler plus a potential franchise player in that lotto pick. If we gave up Butler, I think we'd have to put top 5 protection on the pick.

But then the question is, why would you really want Butler on a team without Bosh? Butler is good, but he's really only a #2 option at best. He's the kind of guy that might keep you just good enough that you avoid the top of the draft. And at 28 years old (and slightly injury prone), he'll probably start to decline before you can effectively rebuild and seriously compete for a championship.

I think Toronto would be better off going for raw potential with more talent, but with less impact right now. An unprotected lotto pick, plus McGee and Young will give you some real talent to work with down the road, but it will also allow you to lose more games in the short term and get another lotto pick or two before all that young talent can gel.

McGee is a real talent. There is no doubt in my mind that he'll eventually be as good as a guy like Chandler, if not better. He's ridiculously long and very agile for his size; and he's a hard worker with good attitude. He also has excellent hands and a pretty good shooting touch for a big man. He just needs to get stronger and to learn how to play in the post (at both ends) at the NBA level. It's only a matter of time.

[Hendrix]

Would Butler, Mcgee, and a 1st be too much? Just kind of trying to get an idea.

It would be tough to give up Butler plus a potential franchise player in that lotto pick. If we gave up Butler, I think we'd have to put top 5 protection on the pick.

But then the question is, why would you really want Butler on a team without Bosh? Butler is good, but he's really only a #2 option at best. He's the kind of guy that might keep you just good enough that you avoid the top of the draft. And at 28 years old (and slightly injury prone), he'll probably start to decline before you can effectively rebuild and seriously compete for a championship.

I think Toronto would be better off going for raw potential with more talent, but with less impact right now. An unprotected lotto pick, plus McGee and Young will give you some real talent to work with down the road, but it will also allow you to lose more games in the short term and get another lotto pick or two before all that young talent can gel.

McGee is a real talent. There is no doubt in my mind that he'll eventually be as good as a guy like Chandler, if not better. He's ridiculously long and very agile for his size; and he's a hard worker with good attitude. He also has excellent hands and a pretty good shooting touch for a big man. He just needs to get stronger and to learn how to play in the post (at both ends) at the NBA level. It's only a matter of time.

Reason why I'de like Butler is because he's a nice peice to the puzzle and has a decent contract that goes past 2010.

Lets just hypothetically say Toronto goes rebuild/tank. They trade Bosh for that package, and trade Calderon (he's byc) for a guy like Rudy Frenandez. Draft a couple solid prospects ike Harden, and Jennings with the 2 picks.

Jennings
Harden/Rudy
Butler
Bargnani
Mcgee

Young guys are all big question marks, but say even 2 of the young guys besides Butler turn into very good players by 2010 then the whole core 6 guys is basically locked up for just $25 million during a year when we could fill in the holes with free agents. We would have enough to sign 2+ max players to a team that would probably already have some ballers on it. Having an already solid guy like Butler would just help solidify that we have a good situation for free agents to come too, and not quite as dependent on potential. Potential's good, but a whole team of it isn't great. The whole rebuild could be done in 1.5 seasons imo.

But now that I think about it, I do think that's probabyl too much even in a weak draft class.

[Jajwanda]

Well I think the Lakers can help you to some regard with Etan Thomas. I realize that he has sucked terribly so far this year and I can also see that you guys are not part of the 2010 crowd so I'd trade you Radmanovic for Etan Thomas with the Lakers sending enough cash to make up the total difference between the contracts. Essentially for one more year of service you guys get a much better player who can help with the low shooting percentages you guys have currently from 3P. He's the 4th best 3 point shooter in the league and when played next to Brendon Haywood he could stretch the floor very nicely for Caron Butler, that is if you decide to trade Jamison.

[LyricalRico]

He's the 4th best 3 point shooter in the league and when played next to Brendon Haywood he could stretch the floor very nicely for Caron Butler, that is if you decide to trade Jamison.

I've always been a Radmanovic fan. He'd definitely overpaid but I like what he brings from a size and shooting perspective. But it doesn't make sense for us to trade for him for a number of reasons.

1. We already have Jamison, as you alluded to.

2. Even with the cash LA could send, I'm more concerned about his salary pushing us closer to the luxury tax in 2010. Depending on what happens with our own FAs his contract could prevent us from using our MLE.

3. We actually have a similar prospect in Pecherov. He's a rebounding 7-footer with 3pt range. He's not as fluid or athletic as Radman but he is a similar style of player. If we're going to go with somebody like that, I'd rather develop the guy we already have.

[nate33]

Well I think the Lakers can help you to some regard with Etan Thomas. I realize that he has sucked terribly so far this year and I can also see that you guys are not part of the 2010 crowd so I'd trade you Radmanovic for Etan Thomas with the Lakers sending enough cash to make up the total difference between the contracts. Essentially for one more year of service you guys get a much better player who can help with the low shooting percentages you guys have currently from 3P. He's the 4th best 3 point shooter in the league and when played next to Brendon Haywood he could stretch the floor very nicely for Caron Butler, that is if you decide to trade Jamison.

We want to trade Etan because he's killing our cap and will force us to pay a luxtax next year. The last thing we want to do is add more salary.

[Jajwanda]

It lessens salary by a couple million.

[nate33]

It lessens salary by a couple million.

There are better ways of doing that.

One that I'm sure is feasible would be to trade Etan + James to NY for Rose + Jeffries. NY does it to clear Jeffries off the books in 2010. We do it to save $6M next year and avoid the luxtax. We could probably throw in Pecherov so we save $7.5M. I'm sure NY would do it either way. That beats the hell out of saving a measily $1.1M next year while being saddled with $7M of Radman's salary in 2011.

[nate33]

I was just going over the salary cap figures for the next few years. It's going to be a problem. Here's our our salary picture looks over the next four years:

Code: Select all

Player           08/09  09/10  10/11  11/12
Arenas,Gilbert   14.65  16.19  17.73  19.27
Jamison,Antawn    9.93  11.65  13.36  15.08
Butler,Caron      9.25  10.03  10.81    - 
Thomas,Etan       6.86   7.35    -      - 
James,Mike        6.20   6.40    -      - 
Haywood,Brendan   5.50   6.00    -      - 
Songaila,Darius   4.26   4.55   4.84    - 
Stevenson,Desha   3.62   3.89   4.15    - 
Blatche,Andray    2.74   3.00   3.26   3.52
Young,Nick        1.60   1.75   2.69    - 
Pecherov,Olesky   1.45   1.55   2.38    - 
McGee,JaVale      1.39   1.50   1.60   2.46
Javaris Critten   1.38   1.48   2.28    - 
McGuire,Dominic   0.71   0.83    -      - 
2009 pick (#4)     -     3.01   3.23   3.46
2010 pick (#23)    -      -     1.20   1.29
2011 pick (#23)    -      -      -     1.24

Total Salary     69.54  79.17  67.55  46.33
Salary Cap       58.68  60.44  62.25  64.12
Luxury Tax       71.15  73.74  75.95  78.23
Money Available   1.61  -5.43   8.40  31.90

I'm assuming we draft 4th in this draft and then in the early 20's thereafter. With the addition of Crittenton and the higher-than-anticipated draft pick, our salary situation is pretty bleak. We project to be more than $5M over the luxtax next year, and we have just $8.4M in luxtax space in 2010/11 excluding Haywood. Haywood is gonna cost at least $7M.

I can tell you this: we may as well scrap the Big Trade plan. That ain't gonna fly. Any trade that sends out the 2010 expirings of Etan and James and brings back long term salary is going to force us into the luxury tax in 2010/11 (or, at the very least, it'll cost us Haywood). If EG wants to set up a Big Trade, he's going to have to unload Songaila and/or Stevenson first. If there's any interest in Songaila out there right now, EG needs to make the deal. I don't know if Songaila's trade value will ever be this high again.

At this point, if EG wants to avoid the luxtax, his only real chance is to try and move Mike James for an expiring contract by the Trade Deadline. Something like James + Pecherov + 2nd round pick for Malik Rose could work. My guess is that NY is first going to try to use Rose's contract as a bribe to get Jeffries off their hands. But if that doesn't pan out, my Mike James trade might be a decent option for them. It gives them depth at guard and center for 2009/10 without impacting their Lebron plans.

[Induveca]

Nate, call me crazy.......but after seeing the curious trade of Daniels for James, I don't have a ton of faith in EG any longer. The whole "Mike James resurgence then trade" theories bouncing about on the board seem quite unlikely.

James fell of the NBA radar for two complete years. Those types of players won't be in high demand, especially when they are starting for a 4-21 squad. I think more than likely Daniels for James was another Chucky Atkins type move, doing an illogical favor for a veteran player in the twilight of his career.

We should have held onto Daniels, come late January/February there would have been much better options on the table for a classy backup PG who knows how to control an offense. There will inevitably be a few teams putting together some runs between now and Feb, and hence getting their playoff run hops up. I suspect Daniels would have been quite interesting to those teams looking to solidify their second rotation. Mike James? Not even close.