1/12/2009 Woelfel: Conley deal waiting for Herb (poll added)

[Ill-yasova]

Sessions FG% 44 Conley 41.4. Sessions also has a better Ass/TO ratio, more points, more assists, more steals, and a higher Eff rating. Also, I don't think the difference in defense is enough to justify anything. Also why should Sessions FG% be disregarded because he shoots more shots closer to the rim? Last time I checked that was a good thing.

Career Sessions is 43.9, Conley is 42.3. And you completely miss the point of my near the rim comment. If he's shooting 43.9%, which is already not that great, but he's getting a lot of shots near the rim, then that makes the 43.9% even worse when you realize he's taking more shots near the rim. Just as a completely different example that would illustrate it, would you find it more impressive if Dwight Howard shot 51%, or Ray Allen shot 50% for a season? Again, it's not on that level, I'm just stating my point.

The defense right now, the gap is pretty big. Sessions is our worst defensive guard.

You also ignored my financial point.

Ray Allen is 6'7", Dwight Howard is a 7' tall athletic freak. Apples to oranges. Sessions and Conley apples to apples.

[jakecronus8]

Well, this was fun. I'm really happy this deal didn't and will not happen. Two prospects for one just doesn't make sense to me. It was entertaining though. I think tomorrow I'll post something like a, Bogut and Sessions for Amare done deal, pending physicals thread. See if I can get that one to 100 pages.

[Ill-yasova]

Ramon averaged 13.3 and 8.3 as a starter. Conley 7.3 and 4.

And how many seconds of the shot clock did Ramon handle the ball in comparision to Conley? What about preventing his opponent from scoring as well as his opponent's teammates if he's getting broken down? How many points you allow is half the equation, as a matter of fact. This aint fantasy, it's reality.

If Conley played Dominic James level defense I would agree with you, but this aint fantasy. He's not that good.

[LUKE23]

Ramon averaged 13.3 and 8.3 as a starter. Conley 7.3 and 4.

Career as starter:

Sessions (11 games):

41.78 min/13.2 ppg/5.2 rpg/11.4 apg/1.8 spg/43.2% FG

Conley (adjusted to Sessions minutes, minutes have to be taking into account, 64 games):

41.78 min/14.2 ppg/4.3 rpg/6.5 apg/1.4 spg/42.9% FG

Conley has a much bigger sample size as a starter as well (nearly 6 times the games), so it would be interesting to see what Sessions numbers would be after 64. Hard to imagine he'd be over 11 apg.

[aboveAverage]

I agree with most of your points, but Conley is not a better outside shooter nor do I think he's a better defender than Sessions.

Sessions career 3 point %: 21.9
Conley's career 3 point %: 33.1

I'm not going to do it, but I'm guessing if you went to 82games.com and looked at their splits, Conley would shoot a better % on perimeter shots as well.

Regarding defense, I'm guessing you're in the vast minority on that one. Sessions has easily been our worst guard defender this year. Don't take this as me being down on him, I still like Sessions quite a bit, but his D has been horrendous all season.

I wasn't aware that outside shooting referred to only 3 pointers. I was including any jumper outside of 15 feet.

[LUKE23]

Ray Allen is 6'7", Dwight Howard is a 7' tall athletic freak. Apples to oranges. Sessions and Conley apples to apples.

Once again missing the point. If you're not going to address my points, don't respond to the post.

[europa]

Chad Ford's take on the possible trade:

David (Vegas): Chad, not sure I understand the Conley for Sessions/Alexander deal from the Bucks' side. Is Alexander a big bust? Is Conley's upside that high? What's his true ceiling (especially if the Grizz think it's below Lowry's)?

SportsNation Chad Ford: (1:11 PM ET ) I really like Conley, he's just not in the right situation in Memphis. However, right now, Sessions is the better player. I think it's a very good trade for Memphis, though long term, it might swing in the Bucks favor. As for Alexander ... I'm skeptical. He's a great athlete and a talented kid, but I don't think he has any real feel for the game. There's a reason Mbah a Moute (also a rookie) has gobbled all of his minutes. Either way, Ridnour should be a reserve, not the starter, in Milwaukee. I don't understand what Scott Skiles is doing there.

[LUKE23]

I wasn't aware that outside shooting referred to only 3 pointers. I was including any jumper outside of 15 feet.

I'm not going to do it, but I'm guessing if you went to 82games.com and looked at their splits, Conley would shoot a better % on perimeter shots as well.

[Ill-yasova]

Ramon averaged 13.3 and 8.3 as a starter. Conley 7.3 and 4.

Career as starter:

Sessions (11 games):

41.78 min/13.2 ppg/5.2 rpg/11.4 apg/1.8 spg/43.2% FG

Conley (adjusted to Sessions minutes, minutes have to be taking into account, 64 games):

41.78 min/14.2 ppg/4.3 rpg/6.5 apg/1.4 spg/42.9% FG

Conley has a much bigger sample size as a starter as well (nearly 6 times the games), so it would be interesting to see what Sessions numbers would be after 64. Hard to imagine he'd be over 11 apg.

ok let's say at the end of the day they are even in your eyes. Why should we throw in JA if the other two guys are even?

[LUKE23]

Chad Ford's take on the possible trade:

David (Vegas): Chad, not sure I understand the Conley for Sessions/Alexander deal from the Bucks' side. Is Alexander a big bust? Is Conley's upside that high? What's his true ceiling (especially if the Grizz think it's below Lowry's)?

SportsNation Chad Ford: (1:11 PM ET ) I really like Conley, he's just not in the right situation in Memphis. However, right now, Sessions is the better player. I think it's a very good trade for Memphis, though long term, it might swing in the Bucks favor. As for Alexander ... I'm skeptical. He's a great athlete and a talented kid, but I don't think he has any real feel for the game. There's a reason Mbah a Moute (also a rookie) has gobbled all of his minutes. Either way, Ridnour should be a reserve, not the starter, in Milwaukee. I don't understand what Scott Skiles is doing there.

Well, thanks a lot Chad. We don't care about all that, is the deal going to happen or not? He makes it sound like it's a done deal though, he doesn't refute it.

[aboveAverage]

Chad Ford's take on the possible trade:

David (Vegas): Chad, not sure I understand the Conley for Sessions/Alexander deal from the Bucks' side. Is Alexander a big bust? Is Conley's upside that high? What's his true ceiling (especially if the Grizz think it's below Lowry's)?

SportsNation Chad Ford: (1:11 PM ET ) I really like Conley, he's just not in the right situation in Memphis. However, right now, Sessions is the better player. I think it's a very good trade for Memphis, though long term, it might swing in the Bucks favor. As for Alexander ... I'm skeptical. He's a great athlete and a talented kid, but I don't think he has any real feel for the game. There's a reason Mbah a Moute (also a rookie) has gobbled all of his minutes. Either way, Ridnour should be a reserve, not the starter, in Milwaukee. I don't understand what Scott Skiles is doing there.

This constant hate on Ridnour has me thinking that many "experts" outside of Milwaukee do not watch any Bucks games. Ridnour has played great this year, and has clearly been outperforming all of the other point guards on the team. Why should he be a reserve then?

[LUKE23]

ok let's say at the end of the day they are even in your eyes. Why should we throw in JA if the other two guys are even?

I don't think Hammond views them as even, but I will answer your question assuming I think they are even. The reason you do it is that you get a PG that is "even" with Sessions locked up for three years at rookie scale, and if he pans out to your (Hammond's) expectations, then you have the money (RJ/Redd/Gadz all expiring) to sign him long-term.

If you don't do this deal, you also run the risk of losing Sessions this offseason and having neither Conley or Sessions. And I agree, I don't like giving up JA, but as of right now, where are his minutes on this roster? If they move RJ, then maybe he has some, but not with RJ and LRMAM.

[Fight the Tank]

I think it is already clear that none of the "experts" watch the Bucks.

[Ill-yasova]

I gotta go. This discussion to be coninued. Wish me luck driving to Milwaukee.

[europa]

[
This constant hate on Ridnour has me thinking that many "experts" outside of Milwaukee do not watch any Bucks games. Ridnour has played great this year, and has clearly been outperforming all of the other point guards on the team. Why should he be a reserve then?

I think it comes down to the points I've made over the years about talent vs. fit. In terms of talent, Sessions is more talented than Ridnour. I think most people would probably agree with that. But in terms of fit, Ridnour provides more of what the Bucks are looking for from the starting PG. Skiles and Hammond likely view that as carrying more importance so that is why the arguably lesser talented player is starting.

[aboveAverage]

I do agree that Joe will never be a good NBA player, and we should get anything we can for him. But we should definitely wait until after the dunk contest (assuming he gets voted in), because if he does well, his value will rise a little bit around the league. I don't know exactly if All Star weekend is before the trade deadline, but if it is, we should wait until after the dunk contest to trade Alexander.

[aboveAverage]

[
This constant hate on Ridnour has me thinking that many "experts" outside of Milwaukee do not watch any Bucks games. Ridnour has played great this year, and has clearly been outperforming all of the other point guards on the team. Why should he be a reserve then?

I think it comes down to the points I've made over the years about talent vs. fit. In terms of talent, Sessions is more talented than Ridnour. I think most people would probably agree with that. But in terms of fit, Ridnour provides more of what the Bucks are looking for from the starting PG. Skiles and Hammond likely view that as carrying more importance so that is why the arguably lesser talented player is starting.

I agree, but I also think Ridnour is more talented than Sessions. He's a better defender, shooter, distributor, leader, ballhandler than Ramon.

[Bernman]

Ramon averaged 13.3 and 8.3 as a starter. Conley 7.3 and 4.

And how many seconds of the shot clock did Ramon handle the ball in comparision to Conley? What about preventing his opponent from scoring as well as his opponent's teammates if he's getting broken down? How many points you allow is half the equation, as a matter of fact. This aint fantasy, it's reality.

If Conley played Dominic James level defense I would agree with you, but this aint fantasy. He's not that good.

But we're comparing Sessions to Conley.

The difference between Conley's average defense between the last 2 seasons and Sessions' pitiful defense pre Skiles, is rather substantial. If you only respond to #'s, Sessions had a 23.1 opponent PER and Conley's has been 17.3. Add that to Conley's offensive #'s to shift that paradigm. Conley would likely improve under Skiles as both Ridnour and Sessions have, defensively.

Also, offensively, Conley averaged 9.9 points and 4.3 assists in 27.3 minutes per game as a starter last season. That was before OJ Mayo arrived and became the Grizz' pseudo point guard in the halfcourt. Sessions doesn't have the same problem in Milwaukee nor would Conley. In that small sample (4 games) you referenced where Sessions was averaging 13.3 and 8.3 as a starter, he played 40.3 minutes per game. In the same amount of minutes as Sessions, Conley actually projected to average 14.6 points and 6.3 assists. At 2.5 years younger, which is significant when we're talking about 20 v. 22 year olds, and as less of a ball dominator surely.

[LUKE23]

Bern was right on cue:

Jeremy (Memphis): Chad, what reasons do you think Conley is not in the right situation here? Thanks.

SportsNation Chad Ford: (1:13 PM ET ) OJ really needs the ball in his hands all the time. That leaves Conley standing around a lot. Because he's not a shooter, that hurts. He'd be a better fit in Milwaukee setting up Michael Redd. I eventually think OJ will be the point guard in Memphis.

[Joana]

I don't get the Memphis' guys rationale at all. Therefore I dont trust him.

Conley may not be a good fit with Mayo because Mayo needs the ball. So you trade for Sessions

He's half-right, I think. It's not about Sessions being a good fit with Mayo and the later needing the ball, rather about being a good fit in that Memphis team:

it's a spread offense that relies on the superiority of each individual player to create his own shot (of course that Memphis players aren't generally superior to their opponents, but that's why Mayo and Gay hold the ball so much, play 1vs5 so frequently and they lost most of their games). Here and there they have Gasol dishing from the high post to some cuts (like we frequently do with Bogut), but it doesn't get more complex than that. Eventually it can indeed be the best fit for the kind of players they have. But this type of game doesn't require a lot from the PG, except the execution of some patterned passes to initiate the offense and then move to spread the floor and provide space to penetrations/shots (Sessions is indeed a good fit for them, although he'd be an even better one if he had a good jumper)

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=870288&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=465#p18254033

Summing it up, instead of having Mayo and Gay creating shots going 1on1, they'd have Sessions also doing that - and, for now, that's Sessions most prominent skill. Also, on the defensive side, the big Sessions would certainly be a better fit next to the small Mayo than Conley.

Good points. I think Sessions would be a really good fit there, because it would be similar to how New Jersey uses Harris and Carter (caution: hyperbole comparison). Mayo is more of a shooter, Sessions more of a penetrator. Both are combo-guards in a way, and running two combo guards can be a nice net positive. They both have things to learn on the defensive side of the ball, but I think Sessions in place of Conley would improve their offense immediately.

Yes, if I am Sessions agent I'm doing everything I can to make this deal succeed. I think Sessions could earn the starting job there and end the season with some good numbers in a team with plenty of cap space to re-sign their own free-agents.

Btw, If I am Mr. Conley Sr., I'd be doing the exact same thing - trying to make this deal go down.