Off-season resources and moves discussion

Hoopstarr · Post #1 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:49 pm

Post #2 » by **Schad** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:41 am

And for those too lazy to click links, some Jays-relevant contract stuff.

Arbitration-eligible (3-6 year vets):

- Jose Bautista. 4+ years of service. Currently playing for $2.4m.

- Jason Frasor. 5+ YOS, which means he'll likely be a free agent after next year. Currently playing for $1.45m.

- Brian Tallet. 4+ YOS. Playing for $1.015m.

- Jeremy Accardo. 3+ YOS. Playing for $900k.

- Shawn Camp. 4+ YOS. Playing for ~$750k, ~$770k if he reaches 60 appearances.

- Brandon League. 3+ YOS. Playing for $640k.

- Raul Chavez. 4+ YOS. Playing for $500k.

Free agents:

- Marco(s) Scutaro. Currently playing for $1.5m incl. bonuses. Comp status: definite A.

- Rod Barajas. Playing for $2.5m. Comp status: near-definite B.

- John McDonald. Playing for $1.9m. Comp status: N/A.

- Kevin Millar. Playing for $950k (will reach $1m if he hits 300 PAs. Comp status: heh.

- Michael Barrett. "Playing" for $600k. Seriously...he's still on the team. Comp status: N/A.

Frasor will be an interesting one to watch in the off-season...he has one more year remaining before he reaches free agency, and the team might want to cash in on the value he's shown before that point. However, he's also a decent season away from being a Comp-A guy, and the organization might use that as a hedge: if he's great again next year, sign him to a multi-year deal (as they did with Downs). If he's merely good and no team offers much, let him walk and take the picks.

Beyond him and Scutaro/Barajas there isn't much to write home about. Bautista, Tallet and Camp are nudging toward free agency, but they are all so highly replaceable that it scarcely matters. None of the talented young players will reach arbitration for at least another year...though Lind, who'll be arb-eligible after 2010 could be worth watching.

zilby · Post #3 » by **zilby** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:11 am

nice work hoopstarr and Schad. its at least something we can all look forward to now.

Michael Bradley · Post #4 » by **Michael Bradley** » Mon Sep 28, 2009 1:24 pm

This is a longshot if the payroll is going to remain in limbo, but I would love the Jays to sign Rich Harden. He has never thrown a full season's worth of innings, but there has never been an issue with his performance. Career ERA+ of 130 (Halladay is at 133), career .633 winning percentage, and career K/9 of 9.4. He is better than Burnett but unfortunately way more injury prone. Plus the Jays actually have a decent shot at signing him since he is Canadian and teams are likely going to be scared off by his injury history (that has never scared JRP before...assuming he stays).

It would be a huge risk if the deal is more than three years, but the upside would be just as huge. I am not comfortable going into next season with Marcum coming off TJS, Romero finishing the season poorly, and some combination of Zep, Cecil, Purcey, McGowan (off two injuries) and Richmond taking up the final two spots. Even if we trade Halladay, someone like Harden would be a good gamble assuming the price is reasonable.

Hoopstarr · Post #5 » by **Hoopstarr** » Mon Sep 28, 2009 7:20 pm

Wilner included Harden in his fantasy off-season plan (http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mike ... a-remodel/).

His plan is pretty crazy but plausible, assuming Rogers is for real about spending.

To summarize, he wants:
-Trade Travis Snider, Scott Richmond and Lyle Overbay (paying some of his freight) and toss in Brett Cecil and an additional prospect-type (Justin Jackson? Brad Mills? Daniel Farquhar? Reider Gonzalez?) to pry King Felix away from the Mariners.
-Trade Marc Rzepczynski or David Purcey, Casey Janssen, Edwin Encarnacion and one of those additional prospect pitchers that didn’t move in the Hernandez deal for Fielder, who will be a free agent after 2010, and Hardy, who will be a free agent after 2011.
-Sign Chone Figgins on a three-year deal for about $25 million
-Sign Jason Bay gets four years and $55 million.
-Sign Rich Harden to a low-base, incentive-laden contract to be the 5th starter behind Halladay, Hernandez, Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum.
-Trade Mark Teahan for Brad Mills

Whoa. Usually you don't see Wilner doing this kind of stuff so it seems even he's fed up with the rudderless ownership/management.

I agree with getting Harden as long as it's a short contract AND if he's not going to be the main pitching acquisition of the winter. Other pitchers I'd look at are Tim Hudson (if Atlanta lets him go), Bedard, Ben Sheets, Andy Pettitte, or Joel Pineiro. All of them have their issues but that's why they're #3 starters.

I have no clue why he wants Teahan. He's a poor OBP, yawn-inducing league avg hitter with OK defense.

I love King Felix but he wants to give up too much for him. There are FA options like John Lackey, for example,, who aren't as good but you don't have to give up the farm for them.

I like the Prince Fielder trade, but that's probably because we're ripping off the Brewers. True, it's only for two seasons of Prince, but it would still cost more to get him. A cheap alternative would be to sign Carlos Delgado to a short contract. He's still got it, looking at his start to 2009 before he got hurt. He'd provide the .900 OPS 1B that we've been missing since...Carlos Delgado.

I like Chone Figgins and his .398 OBP. He'd be the perfect lead-off hitter and he'd replace Rolen at 3B beautifully because he's a great fielder too.

I'm not that big a fan of Jason Bay. He's an awful fielder, and I'd want to build my team around defense, but I wouldn't really object to him either. However, I'd just rather have someone like Abreu.

I'll wait a bit until I talk about what I'd do. I do think Wilner has the right idea, though. The Jays need to make a BIG splash to really show everyone and themselves that they're serious about contending. Part of that requires spending and part of it requires trading young potential to get proven talent.

Michael Bradley · Post #6 » by **Michael Bradley** » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:54 pm

Wilner suggesting that the Jays could get Felix Hernandez and Prince Fielder for Snider, Overbay, Richmond, Cecil, Zep, Encarnacion, Janssen, and Mills/Purcey is either a joke or a drug-induced hallucination. In that scenario Toronto would be adding a 23-year old Cy Young candidate and a 25-year old with a 1.000 OPS for one elite prospect (Snider) and nothing else of significance. A team with a strong farm system (Texas, Boston, Giants, etc) could easily trump those offers. Not even close to realistic.

I have no problem packaging prospects for established talent at this point if the goal is to legitimately try to win in 2010-beyond, but reality is the Jays have a mediocre farm system. They are not going to be players in any of the big potential trades because other than Snider they don't have much young talent to trade. It doesn't help that many of their better prospects had off years.

At this rate the Jays have to really hit home runs with their signings, meaning they have to be relatively low risk with high reward. Harden falls into high risk if the amount of years in his contract exceed three, but he is a perfect example of someone I would take a risk on. Ace-level upside, in his prime, and an injury history that will scare some teams away. I don't think he will be a cheap pitcher though. He might have to settle for less years, but I think dollar wise he might be in the $8-12 million a year range depending on how bad a team wants him. Even last year in a depressed economy the pitching market was expensive. Unless Harden has arm problems, he'll get a decent contract IMO. Another player with high reward, assuming the Cubs agree to pay at least half his contract, is Milton Bradley. JJ Hardy is another one who could come cheap. Bedard on an incentive-laden type deal fits into that category. And so on. I can't see the Jays going after Bay, Figgins, etc. That would be buying high and I doubt ownership would go that route.

Will be interesting to see what the payroll in 2010 will be. That will determine what is realistic and what isn't.

Hoopstarrzz · Post #7 » by **Hoopstarrzz** » Tue Sep 29, 2009 9:06 pm

I say we go all out and do something crazy this year and I, for one, don't object to Wilner's idea. However, I am not sure if we get Prince for the package he has proposed. I am not also particularly thrilled about sending Snider out. Perhaps if we could send out someone like Chad Jenkins instead of Snider, I'll be all up for it. God knows we have been crying out for power bats and if we can lock up a good defensive, young, power hitting right fielder in Snider, why not do it?

3B Figgins
2B Hill
LF Lind
DH Bay
1B Fielder
CF Wells
RF Snider
SS Hardy
C Barajas

with a rotation like:
Halladay
Kind Felix
Romero
Marcum
Bedard / Harden

Bench:
Johnny Mac
Inglett
Ruiz
Dopirak
Arencibia

Bullpen:
Fraser
League
Accardo
Renockie (Sp?)
Tallet
Carlson (only cuz we don't have any lefty option in the pen)
McGowan

That is easily a contender!

zilby · Post #8 » by **zilby** » Wed Sep 30, 2009 8:56 pm

Hoopstarrzz wrote:I say we go all out and do something crazy this year and I, for one, don't object to Wilner's idea. However, I am not sure if we get Prince for the package he has proposed. I am not also particularly thrilled about sending Snider out. Perhaps if we could send out someone like Chad Jenkins instead of Snider, I'll be all up for it. God knows we have been crying out for power bats and if we can lock up a good defensive, young, power hitting right fielder in Snider, why not do it?

3B Figgins
2B Hill
LF Lind
DH Bay
1B Fielder
CF Wells
RF Snider
SS Hardy
C Barajas

with a rotation like:
Halladay
Kind Felix
Romero
Marcum
Bedard / Harden

Bench:
Johnny Mac
Inglett
Ruiz
Dopirak
Arencibia

Bullpen:
Fraser
League
Accardo
Renockie (Sp?)
Tallet
Carlson (only cuz we don't have any lefty option in the pen)
McGowan

That is easily a contender!

what about downsy?

and thats not a contender, because it was merely a dream.

Hoopstarr · Post #9 » by **Hoopstarr** » Sat Oct 3, 2009 12:06 am

Added a bunch of Twitter feeds

zilby · Post #10 » by **zilby** » Sun Oct 4, 2009 4:00 am

WOOO JP CANNED!!!!!!!!!

beeston made my day.

Hoopstarr · Post #11 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 1:53 am

Some good reading:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/b ... le1311769/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/b ... le1311161/
http://tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=293901
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadi ... 14OxI5M7NA
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadi ... wNOBbZs7BA

Griffin alert
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnis ... cle/705012
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnis ... cle/705119
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnis ... cle/705121
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnis ... cle/705325
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnis ... cle/705131

Hoopstarr · Post #12 » by **Hoopstarr** » Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:02 pm

The Indians just swooped in and took Manny Acta away from the Astros. I was thinking the Jays would go after him since he has Expos ties and worked with Dana Brown. A young manager who's familiar with common sense baseball metrics and reads Baseball Prospectus would've been a nice change from Cito.

Post #13 » by **tsherkin** » Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:15 pm

I already have huge confidence in the Anthopolous era. We won't involve ourselves in the bidding war for Aroldis Chapman because we haven't been pursuing him for years. Won't even entertain the notion that reviewing tape and his WBC performances and what-not could help, or that lefty fireballers who throw with right-hander velocity don't come around a lot, etc, etc.

Ugh.

Modern_epic · Post #14 » by **Modern_epic** » Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:08 pm

Did he say that today? Where?

Michael Bradley · Post #15 » by **Michael Bradley** » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:11 pm

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/ar ... p&c_id=tor

"We don't have enough background and scouting looks to make a proper offer," Anthopoulos wrote in an e-mail. "Going forward, these will be the types of things we will be more proactive with. I think the way the Red Sox pursued [Daisuke Matsuzaka] is a great model. They were doing homework on him for years."

I wasn't expecting the Jays to go after Chapman anyway, but it's always disappointing when these types of arms or bats become available and all we hear is excuses as to why it's not feasible for this team.

Post #16 » by **Schad** » Mon Oct 26, 2009 10:36 pm

In this case, though, he might be right...the biggest concern with Chapman is his delivery, which isn't exactly textbook. I wouldn't invest $50m+ in the guy without being absolutely sure that his mechanics will hold up.

Hoopstarr · Post #17 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:01 am

Yea I'm not too disappointed in pulling out of the Chapman race. These types of guys rarely live up to the hype and money spent. Although some of that might be because they get put into pressure-packed situations right away in a big market. El Duque worked out moderately well. Matsuzaka basically got 6 years and 102M, so I wouldn't say he's been a huge hit either. Contreras just sucks.

I'd rather spend the money on an established guy like John Lackey. Although I just read today he might be looking for 100M. Yeesh.

zilby · Post #18 » by **zilby** » Sat Nov 7, 2009 8:57 pm

What we need is a catcher who plays defense and can hit

some deals have been done already, hoping that Anthopoulos strikes early before it's too late.

Hoopstarr · Post #19 » by **Hoopstarr** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 4:55 pm

What does everyone think of Lind at 1B? I think it's a no-brainer. Just about any warm body can play 1B and I don't get why they're so reluctant.

zilby · Post #20 » by **zilby** » Sat Nov 21, 2009 1:15 am

Hoopstarr wrote:What does everyone think of Lind at 1B? I think it's a no-brainer. Just about any warm body can play 1B and I don't get why they're so reluctant.

so when overbay gets traded and we have milton? because thats what will happen.