Bruce Arthur: Glass half full analysis of Andrea

[XxIronChainzxX]

If Andrea hits 20 points or more tonight, April will be his highest points per game month of the season. But frankly, I'm not going to rest my case on such a small sample.

Nor should you. Yours is a weak case.

It is also his worst shooting month of the season. His FG% is 0.425 and his TS% is 0.500. His career TS% is 0.540 and this season he was at 0.550.

So if we're going to say anything about April, its that Bargnani's scoring is a product of chucking.

[dagger]

Except, if you had read what I wrote and you quoted - "I'm not going to rest my case on such a small sample". That means I recognize the flaws in taking a number out of context and running with, like talking about Bosh's assists, without referring to his total performance. It's just too little of a sample to say that this or that is indicative of a season's work or even a half-season's

[djsunyc]

if a player was never put in a certain position, then how can one deduce he can't perform at that position?

bargs was never used as the primary option on offense.

so how can anyone conclude he isn't up for the task when he was never given the task?

[neurotik]

He will most likely have next year to be the number one guy and we will have a better sample to analyze his strengths and weaknesses then. I see a lot of you are arguing your case and making some really good points but the truth is, like it was pointed out, the sample size is too small. It's pointless to debate a point that has a large portion of potential involved as a base for the argumment. Evaluating him next year will be far more accurate. But for now I will have to digress....

[gerrit4]

I think the hope is that Bargnani will step it up once he knows he's the first option and has to lead the team. He's only had that pressure for parts of this season and it's always been known that it's temporary.

I'm not saying that's what I think will happen. But I do believe that is the hope.

[Tacoma]

Except, if you had read what I wrote and you quoted - "I'm not going to rest my case on such a small sample". That means I recognize the flaws in taking a number out of context and running with, like talking about Bosh's assists, without referring to his total performance. It's just too little of a sample to say that this or that is indicative of a season's work or even a half-season's

Not to speak for Lionel but he was responding to the remark that "Bosh gets double teammed all the time and get no assists to show for it," so you're out of context as well. Insofar as Bosh's season stats are concerned, he's 8th in the league in assists this season and 5th last season among PFs. Yes, he's not Nash when it comes to passing the ball, but he's still among the best at it at his position.

He will most likely have next year to be the number one guy and we will have a better sample to analyze his strengths and weaknesses then. I see a lot of you are arguing your case and making some really good points but the truth is, like it was pointed out, the sample size is too small. It's pointless to debate a point that has a large portion of potential involved as a base for the argumment. Evaluating him next year will be far more accurate. But for now I will have to digress....

It's always next year for Bargnani. Then next year comes and more excuses and Dagger and the rest of the Bargs nuthuggers will say he's only been the #1 option for one year and so will need a few more years to learn his new position as #1 option... and on and on with more excuses.

When he was drafted, it was said Bargs needed 4-5 years on the learning curve to truly show his worth. Now after 4 years, he's still very much on the learning curve and if you consider his numbers on a per min basis, his improvement has been agonizingly slow and appearing to level. Folks were predicting 17/6 in his 2nd year and now he's there 4 years later or 2 years too late.

He's going to have to make a huge leap in his skillset to earn this #1 option gift from Colangelo (he definitely hasn't earned it). But he's been coddled his entire Raptors career so while some things stays the same, lets hope this doesn't describe his minute-adjusted results for next season. That's my non-nuthugging version of glass half full.

[Lionel Messi]

Except, if you had read what I wrote and you quoted - "I'm not going to rest my case on such a small sample". That means I recognize the flaws in taking a number out of context and running with, like talking about Bosh's assists, without referring to his total performance. It's just too little of a sample to say that this or that is indicative of a season's work or even a half-season's

Not to speak for Lionel but he was responding to the remark that "Bosh gets double teammed all the time and get no assists to show for it," so you're out of context as well. Insofar as Bosh's season stats are concerned, he's 8th in the league in assists this season and 5th last season among PFs. Yes, he's not Nash when it comes to passing the ball, but he's still among the best at it at his position.

I actually already responded by saying that. Seems they ignored it

[Courtside]

The fact is that the ball is swung out of a Bosh double team very often and that's what makes our offence so effective, as well as the ball swinging when Bosh sets a pick on a P&R.

There are times when Bosh seems more in the flow and does pass better - but there are also times when you can forget about the ball coming out. It's one thing that has bothered me about him. He knows we do better when the ball moves more - he mentioned this specifically 2 seasons ago when he was out and got to watch the ball movement from the sideline - but there are times when he really isn't concerned with ensuring the team plays well. His assist numbers before the injury were pretty good, but afterwards can anyone really say that he didn't take way too many weak jumpers (early in the clock when team mates were open) or that he didn't take way too long deciding what to do when iso'd, only to drive into a double team or take a fadaway jumper still?

As for Chris setting picks - I think you really ought to avoid bringing that up. He sets the weakest picks ever - often times never even making contact with the defender - and it makes it a lot more difficult for the guard to either get him the ball or effectively shake his man. This worked a lot better 2 seasons ago, but this year our P&R game has been pretty weak. Part of that is on the guards, part if that is on the big man setting bad picks and messing up the timing and intent of the pick in the first place.

[bychai]

He's shown flashes of what he is capable of.

this line has been used since his rookie year

remember that between the legs backwards pass to bosh for the dunk (which bosh missed)? FLASHES.

consistency is definitely the key... and getting after the freaking rebound.

[XxIronChainzxX]

Except, if you had read what I wrote and you quoted - "I'm not going to rest my case on such a small sample". That means I recognize the flaws in taking a number out of context and running with, like talking about Bosh's assists, without referring to his total performance. It's just too little of a sample to say that this or that is indicative of a season's work or even a half-season's

Your implication seemed to be that Bargnani may well have had a good month, but you're not going to extrapolate from the stretch (hence "If Andrea hits 20 points or more tonight, April will be his highest points per game month of the season" which has a decidedly positive spin). Lionel was talking about Bosh having an excellent assist rate for a stretch; the parallel isn't Bargnani putting up deceptive offensive numbers in a similar stretch.

bargs was never used as the primary option on offense.

Bargs has the 2nd highest usage rate on the team. He has the same usage rate as Gasol. He has the ball in his hands a lot. In fact, he receives 1/5th of our total possessions. If he could create for himself in a meaningful sense, he could be doing it. Now, he might be a much better weapon if we build our entire offence around him to maximize his numbers, but that's not exactly what a team should be going for.

[Lionel Messi]

The fact is that the ball is swung out of a Bosh double team very often and that's what makes our offence so effective, as well as the ball swinging when Bosh sets a pick on a P&R.

There are times when Bosh seems more in the flow and does pass better - but there are also times when you can forget about the ball coming out. It's one thing that has bothered me about him. He knows we do better when the ball moves more - he mentioned this specifically 2 seasons ago when he was out and got to watch the ball movement from the sideline - but there are times when he really isn't concerned with ensuring the team plays well. His assist numbers before the injury were pretty good, but afterwards can anyone really say that he didn't take way too many weak jumpers (early in the clock when team mates were open) or that he didn't take way too long deciding what to do when iso'd, only to drive into a double team or take a fadaway jumper still?

As for Chris setting picks - I think you really ought to avoid bringing that up. He sets the weakest picks ever - often times never even making contact with the defender - and it makes it a lot more difficult for the guard to either get him the ball or effectively shake his man. This worked a lot better 2 seasons ago, but this year our P&R game has been pretty weak. Part of that is on the guards, part if that is on the big man setting bad picks and messing up the timing and intent of the pick in the first place.

Him and Bargnani both set the same quality picks because they both go for jump-shot or set up outside the paint rather than diving straight to the rim like Amir/Reggie do.

They often "slip" the pick (the instance you were talking about when he makes no contact) to set up for the open jumper before their defender can react.

If Bosh was purely an inside guy, he would set harder picks because that's the only way he would be effective, but his picks remain effective because of his jump-shooting ability and ability to beat his own man 1v1 off the pick.
You really think it's a coincidence that AMir/Reggie set the hardest screens, then Rasho and then Bargs/Bosh?

[Lionel Messi]

He's shown flashes of what he is capable of.

this line has been used since his rookie year

remember that between the legs backwards pass to bosh for the dunk (which bosh missed)? FLASHES.

consistency is definitely the key... and getting after the freaking rebound.

That pass might have been play of the year if Bosh had hit the and1 or not been fouled at all.

[strangespot]

It's always next year for Bargnani. .....

that happens when obviously there wasnt a clear development plan for a player...

rookie year: back up for bosh
2nd year: starts centre for some games, then comes off the bench for who knows who (once bosh, once rasho, plays in various positions and thanks S. Mitchell for exposing him at SF against Lebron).
3rd year: back up C after summer of bigman camp (first time)... plays well off the bench replacing JO.... then SF again and all the plan of Bargs C screwed again until S.Mitchel is fired
3rd yr part 2 / 4th yr: Bargs has his first REAL steady experience at C

conclusion: In EVERY season except this one, Bargs was subject to "changes of plan"

[Undefeated]

Bargs has the 2nd highest usage rate on the team. He has the same usage rate as Gasol. He has the ball in his hands a lot. In fact, he receives 1/5th of our total possessions. If he could create for himself in a meaningful sense, he could be doing it.

Sure, but how many of those touches come from running the offense through him oppose to playing off the ball or getting those touches down the shot clock and forced to do something when no other options are available? Bargnani is the leading Raptors in attempts with 16-20 seconds and can't blame Bargnani when he's expected to hoist those shots down shot clock.