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A Treatise on Andy Marte

FordPrefect
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#21 » by FordPrefect » Sat May 8, 2010 6:39 pm

The Alomar and Colon trades were at least somewhat innovative.

But I think the point is exactly what you say: that Shapiro in his entire tenure never learned anything. That's a far cry from Jack Z assembling a team that can't hit: he can keep looking for a DH and a better 1b and LF without really hurting the defense too much.

But there's two steps to being a GM, to assembling a team with value: assembling a core (Shapiro and Jack Z have both done that) and then finding a way to supplement the core with enough talent to win. Shapiro's veteran gambits were 85% of the time massive failures. I'll give him SPs, at least- Millwood and Pavano outweigh Jason Johnson. But he developed a fantastic up the middle core and then did absolutely nothing with it. The people who want Brantley in LF didn't learn from it: he has value but if you have a Sizemore in CF, you don't give that advantage bac kby running out Johnny no hit in LF.

The Indians could have had Sizemore-Gutierrez-Choo in the OF, Marte-Peralta-Cabrera- Branyan (amazing that Shapiro only noticed Branyan could hit after Seattle did0 and Victor behind the plate. Even with bad Peralta and Marte, that would have been some defense and some offense. And cheaper than the Dellucci run version.

And that's just looking at obvious available alternatives, nothing more creative like drafting more effectively.

Shapiro's term should go down as a wasted opportunity. There's two parts to that: that it genuinely was an opportunity (what a lot of Shapiro haters from the early going never understood) and that he wasted it.

I'm mostly focusing on veterans in this thread because I see SHapiro and his cabal of ex players CONSISTENTLY do the same crap. There's room for either Kearns or Branyan to play full time, but heck, let's try to play both. It's madness.


Hmmm, this seems to be just me ranting. Treat it as such.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#22 » by Lando12 » Sat May 8, 2010 8:34 pm

You may just be ranting, but I'm going to try to talk you down a bit anyway.

Shapiro has learned some things. They changed their approach to trading after moving Alomar. Alomar's collapse tends to hide the horrible approach the Indians took to that deal.

Shapiro's first draft signaled the organizational commitment to pitching and defense. They picked a crapload of high school arms. They fixed that. As troubling as the drafting has been, things have certainly started to look up. The 08 draft continues to look very strong. The early returns on White, Kipnis, and Gardner have been very promising. It may have taken some personnel reshuffling, but the drafting has changed for the better. I know that people have been harping on the drafting for years, but these things take time. The draft and develop Twins under Smith didn't start out great in the draft. From 95-00, the only good player the Twins drafted was Morneau. It wasn't until Cuddyer's breakout in 2006 that changed that. That was nearly a full decade after he was drafted. Kubel, a 2000 draftee, didn't breakout until last year. For much of Smith's tenure, his early drafting looked like a waste of a ton of premium picks.

It hasn't been successful, but the approach to the bullpen has certainly changed. They had a lot of success in 05. Things collapsed in 06, leading to a wildly different approach in 07. That worked for a year, and then collapsed again. Then the Indians tried a high priced closer to fix things, and that didn't work. Now they have acquired a giant pile of young relievers and prospects. We'll see. The bullpen problems cannot be blamed on a lack of effort. They have tried a number of different approaches.

There was also the ill fated platoon experiment. It failed, they learned, and they stopped. And along the way they canned a manager.

Shapiro has certainly made mistakes, and I do question if they have learned from all of them. But I don't think Shapiro's tenure is so easy to break into segments. He wasn't nearly as awesome in the early going as the legend claims. He got off to a pretty rough start. Some of the things Shapiro gets hammered for now didn't just spring up in 2008. They signed Aaron Boone in 2005. The one year contract to Trot Nixon doesn't seem so out of place next to that deal. The praise of Shapiro in 05 and 07 was a bit much, and the current disdain for which he is held seems like a pretty drastic overcorrection.

It does get lost that the big spending splurge that Shapiro bungled left him with a payroll about 10 million lower than what Jack Z got to play with this past year. Epstein has blown a crapload of money on a few bad contracts. None of these guys are superheroes. Part of Shapiro's problem is that too many people bought the hype.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#23 » by Lando12 » Tue May 11, 2010 10:48 pm

Quick update on Marte's predicament. He has a 375 OBP and 417 SLG in 32 PA. Kearns has a 364 OBP and a 333 SLG over his last 33 PA. If Marte hasn't played his way into more playing time, hasn't Kearns played himself out of everyday status?
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#24 » by DavidMcGr » Wed May 12, 2010 2:14 am

Acta has defied logic thus far. Marte is everyone's doghouse and short-term "solutions" are getting playing time over long term ones.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#25 » by FordPrefect » Wed May 12, 2010 3:59 am

I fail to see a distinction between the Indians and the 90s Pirates.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#26 » by Lando12 » Wed May 12, 2010 6:07 am

As silly as some of these decisions have been, they don't come anywhere near to the 90s Pirates. That is just a different animal. This veteran silliness may be a page out of that playbook, but the Pirates ran the entire thing. Marte has been completely misused. The Pirates shipped out Aramis Ramirez despite the fact that he had posted an 885 OPS as a 23 year old.

This sort of thing is annoying, but we need to back away from the ledge a bit. This is still the team that stuck its neck out with trades last summer. That is something that the Pirates never would have considered. Don't let those who would defend all of this stuff to the death push you towards an extreme.

Anyhow, something funny happened tonight. Branyan raised his OPS by .222. In one game. Branyan had a demotion worthy 200/300/286 line before tonight. Now it sits at 250/333/475. I'm going to take that as a sign that we shouldn't be looking too deeply into the numbers just yet.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#27 » by DavidMcGr » Wed May 12, 2010 1:48 pm

For the sake of Andy Marte, I wish Branyan's HRs were rained out instead of Grady's and Hafner's.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#28 » by Lando12 » Wed May 12, 2010 5:04 pm

Last year, Valbuena got 398 PA at the major league level. Only 40 of those PA were against lefties, so he was platoon player. Acta claimed that the Indians aren't in the business of making 24 year old platoon players, and Valbuena has had 23% of his PA against LH. All is well, right? Not exactly. Valbuena is on pace for 432 PA. If we were to stretch out his 2009 MLB time over a full season, he would have gotten 467 PA. He's not being developed as a platoon player, he's just getting platoon level playing time. A platoon would be better than what we have gotten with Valbuena. At least there would be a reason for playing Grudzielanek and his 0 XBH. Right now they are sharing time as if it was a platoon without any of the benefits of a platoon. It is the worst of both worlds.

And just to be clear, Grudzielanek stinks. He has a .621 OPS. His contact heavy approach has led to exactly as many productive outs as Valbuena (in more chances). But hey, he has come through on the extra GIDP. Hooray groundballs!

I guess what makes this so frustrating to me is that it shows a failure to learn the right lessons from the Phillips fiasco. Yeah, choosing Vazquez over Phillips was dumb. But at least from that screw up the Indians got Stevens. Stevens turned into DeRosa, and DeRosa turned into Perez and Todd. The Indians got value from the transaction. What the Indians seemed to take away from that mistake is to never, ever let a former top prospect go until you absolutely have to. So Marte sits on the end of the 08 bench because letting him go would have been scary. The real lesson should have been: How in the world did the organization allow Phillips vs Vazquez to become a real choice? How did Phillips find himself competing for the 25th spot on the roster? The real mistake was letting Phillips fall to a point where he was competing with Ramon Vazquez, not trading him off when the manager didn't want him for that role.

Clearly, the Indians disagree with that assessment. They keep doing things that lead to this sort of mess. The only change is that the team will hold on tight once these situations reach their logical conclusions. Both decisions are a mistake. It was silly to block Phillips, but at least they got something for him. They robbed Marte of any value he once may have had.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#29 » by FordPrefect » Wed May 12, 2010 10:49 pm

The Indians may not be trading players away like Bonifay, but they're bringing players in certainly like he would. Moreover, Jhonny peralta is closely approaching Pat Meares territory. T

This is the mistake I'm seeing: the Indians gave someone money and are determined to get value from the player, instead of being determined to get value from the situation. This is an elementary mistake, which makes me wonder what potential influence Keith Woolner can have, if any.

Moreover, LaPorta is on track for just 400 ABs, Valbuena less than that and people think this is a good long term trend, as if the Indians can operate this year and it will somehow lead to long term success. Not to go all Kant here, but it doesn't work like that: Committing to youngsters when you lose with a small market (or lose ever) is the only way to get better, even if it doesn't happen immediately.

The Indians instead have a different approach: they make quick judgments on them and give veterans a long leash, before drastically changing course in midseason, which only sends the message that all the young players are crap. Then everyone doesn't play as well, things go bad, and new veterans are brought in.

it's a hellish cycle.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#30 » by Lando12 » Thu May 13, 2010 12:03 am

I don't think the desire to get production out of guys that are getting paid good money makes the Indians the 90s Pirates. I think it makes them common. And Peralta was signed before the 06 season. It's just a different situation. Jose Guillen is a Pat Meares move. This veteran love is disturbing, but we shouldn't fly off of the handle about it. It isn't that far from harping about Brian Barton. I would consider how Marte was handled a felony. These other things are misdemeanors. We're starting to make mountains out of molehills. That's really easy to do when people at Scout try to tell you they aren't molehills.

And I think it is really difficult to find a real pattern in this mess. Through Valbuena's first 95 PA last year, he had a 573 OPS. Naturally, his playing time increased. Asdrubal Cabrera was allowed to be aggressively horrible until June in 08. Now Valbuena sits for Grudzielanek? In May? I cannot make sense of all of this. I don't know if it's better or worse, but it seems like a complete lack of a pattern. I don't believe there is some deep seated veteran love. I think they are flying by the seat of their pants.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#31 » by Lando12 » Thu May 13, 2010 12:21 am

Tonight's lineup is making patience difficult. Thank goodness all of the youngsters are getting a break versus Bannister and Davies. I'm sure they'll be back to confidence building versus Grienke.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#32 » by DavidMcGr » Thu May 13, 2010 2:47 am

I'm not sure if the Acta or the scout forum is more frustrating but I'm getting close to quitting both (that board and watching). Does anyone else find it difficult to watch games when the major of players in the starting lineup have no long term future with the club while 4 guys sit on the bench who do? It's one thing to watch a team lose games and see some development but its another to watch a bunch of grinders and team players lose 85 games.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#33 » by Lando12 » Thu May 13, 2010 3:51 am

Games aren't as much fun to watch. Those PA from young players take on a little extra meaning. They are the only things that can give hope for the long term. Whether or not Grudzielanek singles doesn't make a bit of difference. Games like tonight are just backround noise. There really isn't any point in paying close attention.

The defense of this crap is just mind numbing. It's OK to do this so long as they don't keep doing it. It is a logical pretzel that I cannot imagine anyone truly believing. It isn't worth your time trying to reason with people over there. The level of discourse was so low that I found it made me worse as a poster. It's a forum for one line zingers and yelling, nothing more.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#34 » by DavidMcGr » Thu May 13, 2010 3:59 am

It's really true. I've viewed as a treat procrastination tool, especially for quick 2 minute breaks while at work, but I don't think I can handle it anymore. I'm going to try put my effort towards making less frequent but more meaningful posts here (and if time permits maybe even blogging again).

As for the Indians, yeah it's bad news. I'd love to stay a fan of the team but I wonder if I will be able to if this refusal to develop players continues. Clearly that's a ridiculous overstatement as they would need to keep this behavior up for an extended period of time (I don't see it happening), but it does worry me to some degree. I've never been a bandwagon fan of anything but I do find myself wondering if I would enjoy watching the Rays or Rangers more than the Indians at this point in time (and that's less about winning and more developing talent).
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#35 » by Lando12 » Wed May 26, 2010 3:41 am

Lando12 wrote:It isn't worth your time trying to reason with people over there.


I really should take my own advice more often. Yikes.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#36 » by DavidMcGr » Wed May 26, 2010 4:36 am

Slightly, on topic.

I knew that Kearns wasn't playing very well and that he should be sitting on the bench in place of Laporta but I had no idea how bad he has been until I looked at his trajectory numbers. His TBwOBA is 0.311. He's value is exclusively derived from a 0.400 BABIP (career 0.303) and a couple good games in April. This whole playing the "hot hand" myth should be debunked as, even with Kearn's 0.366 BABIP in May, he has still only put up a 0.310 wOBA while striking out 40% of the time with very little power. I think he was a solid pick up for us as a plus defender with a bit of upside with the bat, but playing him over a top prospect like Laporta is painfully stupid. I've never been this down on the Indians the before but I fear that as this decisions add up I may only be one more gut jerk move away (ex: moving Masterson to the pen) from abandoning ship.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#37 » by Lando12 » Wed May 26, 2010 4:50 am

I'm a bit of a masochist. No matter how many silly things they do, I'll keep coming back for more. I can't help it.

The hot hand stuff gave me a really depressing thought. I saw someone suggest Kearns to the Rays. My first reaction was that the Rays wouldn't be that stupid. Then it hit me, the Indians are that stupid. I'm not saying that I've always believed that the Indians have done the best job or that they have all of the smartest guys. I just have never believed that the difference between them and a smarter organization would be so stark.

I have been trying to back away from the ledge. There are plenty of things that the FO does right. They aren't the the worst guys out there. But trying to figure out the organization's overall philosophy is like nailing jello to the wall. It's maddening.

I find that some Indians fans are tempting me to root against the team. Part of me wishes that they would get what they want, just so I could see the ensuing carnage.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#38 » by FordPrefect » Wed May 26, 2010 6:01 pm

The key to understanding the Indians is to understand who makes the decisions. Shapiro has long had a cadre of very, very conventional thinkers around him, most if not all of whom are "veteran baseball guys". This is his culture - look at his father. He has two saber guys, with no indication they're listened to for anything important.

Compare this to Tampa, where there's an institutional history of thinking out of the box and no pressure like that at all.

That's Shapiro's biggest flaw and the consistent trend. He has enough discipline to not spend money chasing it, but he doesn't let that change his approach.

The Indians MO? Veterans, veterans, veterans until they run out.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#39 » by DavidMcGr » Wed May 26, 2010 6:10 pm

FordPrefect wrote:The key to understanding the Indians is to understand who makes the decisions. Shapiro has long had a cadre of very, very conventional thinkers around him, most if not all of whom are "veteran baseball guys". This is his culture - look at his father. He has two saber guys, with no indication they're listened to for anything important.

Compare this to Tampa, where there's an institutional history of thinking out of the box and no pressure like that at all.

That's Shapiro's biggest flaw and the consistent trend. He has enough discipline to not spend money chasing it, but he doesn't let that change his approach.

The Indians MO? Veterans, veterans, veterans until they run out.


It should be noted that it's more mediocre veterans. My issues would be lessened to a serious degree if we were playing above average vets over prospects, but we're playing ones who are not only having bad years but ones who have extensive histories of being average, and in some cases below average, players. It's one thing to say that we're going to play Jake Westbrook and let Carrasco get a bit more time in AAA (and likely avoid super2) and another to play Austin Kearns, Russel Branyan and lesser "prospects" like Duncan and Crowe over Matt Laporta or playing a 39 year old MIF who is has never even been an average player over Luis Valbuena.
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Re: A Treatise on Andy Marte 

Post#40 » by Lando12 » Wed May 26, 2010 8:27 pm

FordPrefect wrote:The key to understanding the Indians is to understand who makes the decisions. Shapiro has long had a cadre of very, very conventional thinkers around him, most if not all of whom are "veteran baseball guys". This is his culture - look at his father. He has two saber guys, with no indication they're listened to for anything important.


I don't think the problem is not listening to the saber guys. It's that they seem to listen to everybody. Everyone seems to get a crack at it, which could explain why I cannot identify an overarching philosophy.

Compare that to how the A's were described in Moneyball. There was a philosophy dictated by the guys at the top, and everyone below them was expected to act accordingly. The Indians like to bring the manager into the decision making process. It's no wonder that things are a bit jumbled.
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