Official Countdown to Firing"NoLowPostOffense"Grunfeld

[sfam]

If we make the playoffs this year, does EG make executive of the year?

[Hoopalotta]

If we make the playoffs this year, does EG make executive of the year?

I think Flip would be more likely to get coach of the year under the "he got 42 wins out of that?!?" provision.

[montestewart]

If we make the playoffs this year, does EG make executive of the year?

If the overwhelming majority of the contributions toward a playoff spot came from Wall, Arenas, Blatche, and maybe McGee, maybe not, but if a significant portion of such success could be attributed to the other picks, Hinrich, Thornton, Yi, or any other acquisitions, he should merit consideration, as should Saunders for COTY.

[closg00]

clos- OK, assuming Presti to the Nets is a done deal, who can we get to replace Ernie 'Wes' Grunfeld?

Gee, we'll have to wait to see how-long it will take Ted to realize that he should have fired Ernie when he assumed ownership, could be years. Who knows who will be available. Had Presti been available sooner, I wonder if Ted would have made a move.

[Hoopalotta]

Its actually Pritchard that's available. Presti is very much in Oklahoma.

[closg00]

Its actually Pritchard that's available. Presti is very much in Oklahoma.

Thanks, Feudian-slip. Pritchard and Presti It is indeed Pritchard who is available and I would wager that he has heard from many teams with and without actual openings.

[montestewart]

Its actually Pritchard that's available. Presti is very much in Oklahoma.

I did see a vague rumor about Presti moving on, but it looked like typical idle speculation. On the strength of his work in OKC, Presti might at some point wonder whether another team might pay him more than OKC is willing to spend.

[hands11]

i like the fact that ernie finally - FINALLY - had a near perfect draft and we're tearing him a new one

Maybe we could have done more (like say, traded Nick Young for more assets) but everything we did filled LONG-standing needs, including the Hinrich trade.

Fact is, we do *not* need cap space right away - Melo and Durant aren't coming (and I don't really want Melo), and nobody else is worth it. We *do* need size, rebounding, and leadership. Guess who provides that?

In other drafts, Ernie would have drafted some soft jumpshooting big or some undersized no defense guard - this time he drafted rebounding hustle bigs. He's learned, at least a little bit. Or at least Ted's telling him what to do.

Now, if he doesn't trade for Vince Carter, then I'm fine with him finishing out the season.

Don't misunderestimate the influence of an owners the mandate. EG should always be judged in this light. He was the GM for an old and dieing owner who hand picked the HC he couldn't get ride of and that wanted a title before he died.

We still have questions but this was the first set of moves in a 3 year plan.

We still don't know the final roster but even with what we have, we filled holes that needed filled.
Unless we add a proven starting C, this year is about figuring out if we found our answers down there for the next 3-5 years by drafting two and keeping our McGee ubber freak. We also answered our long standing PG problem with the #1 pick freak and a solid vet that help teach another top pick PG get his game together. We set the team up so Gil either make it or raises his value to get moved. Both Wall and Hinny and the other picks should help Gil focus on D, as should moving him to SG and getting the ball out of his hand so much. Don't forget, Gil can pop some shots. We didn't tie Drays hands so we get to see if he really turned the corner. What we have as the biggest question mark and hole is .. star SF but what we did find is a tough defender for that position and PF.

As far as rebuilding goes, we are looking good. We got tough guys who play D. Something people has wanted to see for a while and we still have cap room but used some of it.

One issue I have so far is over promoting Wall and giving him the team without him even stepping on the court. I hope as the season gets closer, they ramp this down a little and make him come off the bench to start the season. Just because we have a void of promotable stars doesn't mean we should over play our hand in creating a situation we will ultimately need to ramp back down.

In the end, Wall with need to share the stage with one or two other stars so lets not build the ego we will need to later break down. The kid is going to get plenty of attention on his own. We shouldn't feed into it. - See Gilbert.

I just hope Dray continues where he left off so 100% of the attention isn't on Wall. Plus, I hope Gil comes back and plays it as best he can.

This could be a productive team with Wall and Hinny dishing and playing tough D, Gil popping and Dray doing what he did last year. It doesn't have to be all about Wall and that would be best for everyone involved.

At it's best it would be our version of D Rose/Rondo, Wade/Allen, Dirke/KG
That's pretty much what you need. And of all these players, Dray is actually a very important piece who we are hearing the least about.

And with so many team with open cap space, things dont look so bad if we do decide to move Gil, though I wouldn't be so quick to decide we should. I want to see what we have first.

Nice to know there should be space in NY for him if we need to move him.

[hands11]

If we make the playoffs this year, does EG make executive of the year?

If the overwhelming majority of the contributions toward a playoff spot came from Wall, Arenas, Blatche, and maybe McGee, maybe not, but if a significant portion of such success could be attributed to the other picks, Hinrich, Thornton, Yi, or any other acquisitions, he should merit consideration, as should Saunders for COTY.

I didn't follow your logic in this post.

Wall, Gil, Dray and McGee where all brought here by EG.

Gil for nothing via UFA
Dray as a long shot project out of HS who showed some excellent production late last year.
Wall as the #1 pick - in part by dismantling the team with AJ and CB last year and some luck
I didn't like that we lost Haywood but ...
McGee as the player drafted as best center prospect after the Georgetown kid was taken.

Then you place more emphasis on " other picks, Hinrich, Thornton, Yi, or any other acquisitions"

Well, " the other acquisitions " may or may not show everything they will become in their first year.
I do think we will get contributions from Hinny and Booker from day one.
Yi was had for a dead asset in Ross. That a win in itself.
Thorton. Can't remember all the details. Didn't he come along with cleaning space.
As for when we see something from Seraphin. First we need to get him here, then he needs to get some court time. If he is here, I hope he is, I believe he will be rebounding and blocking right out of the gates. That is what we need.

Hamady ? Lets see if he is on the active roster or if we fill other holes.

So there are more players in the mix than you suggest and while I think we will get immediate production from most, this shouldn't be judge by just one year.

[closg00]

If we make the playoffs this year, does EG make executive of the year?

I think Flip would be more likely to get coach of the year under the "he got 42 wins out of that?!?" provision.

Could be a toss-up here, Ernie probably has a few moves left this summer and if Flip can manage to get the new group playing together and make the playoffs, Ernie or Flip could be rewarded with one of those awards.

[closg00]

i like the fact that ernie finally - FINALLY - had a near perfect draft and we're tearing him a new one

Maybe we could have done more (like say, traded Nick Young for more assets) but everything we did filled LONG-standing needs, including the Hinrich trade.

Fact is, we do *not* need cap space right away - Melo and Durant aren't coming (and I don't really want Melo), and nobody else is worth it. We *do* need size, rebounding, and leadership. Guess who provides that?

In other drafts, Ernie would have drafted some soft jumpshooting big or some undersized no defense guard - this time he drafted rebounding hustle bigs. He's learned, at least a little bit. Or at least Ted's telling him what to do.

Now, if he doesn't trade for Vince Carter, then I'm fine with him finishing out the season.

Near-perfect draft??? Too-early to say don't you think?

[JonathanJoseph]

i like the fact that ernie finally - FINALLY - had a near perfect draft and we're tearing him a new one

Maybe we could have done more (like say, traded Nick Young for more assets) but everything we did filled LONG-standing needs, including the Hinrich trade.

Fact is, we do *not* need cap space right away - Melo and Durant aren't coming (and I don't really want Melo), and nobody else is worth it. We *do* need size, rebounding, and leadership. Guess who provides that?

In other drafts, Ernie would have drafted some soft jumpshooting big or some undersized no defense guard - this time he drafted rebounding hustle bigs. He's learned, at least a little bit. Or at least Ted's telling him what to do.

Now, if he doesn't trade for Vince Carter, then I'm fine with him finishing out the season.

Near-perfect draft??? Too-early to say don't you think?

No. Because while you can't evaluate how they players will turn out (and it's always a crap shoot), you can evaluate "the plan" Grunfeld had going into the draft (to get tougher, more athletic, better defensively and need big men prospects).

If you believe reports, he also outmaneuvered OKC and CLE or whoever else was trying to trade up for Seraphin, got a guy he wanted in Booker and got Hinrich and gave up NO ASSETS other than short term cap space to pull it off. Got Yi and Ndiyae for a free tryout.

We don't know how the players will pan out, but Grunfeld nailed it on draft day.

[JonathanJoseph]

BTW, I also think it's worth comparing Grunfeld to Sam Presti, since Presti seems to make people drool.

Presti is, without a doubt, one of the best GMs in the game. But if Pritchard drafts Durant over Oden, OKC wouldn't be very good. Even then, looking at the OKC roster and evaluating the "pieces in place", cap space going forward and assets, I don't think there's all that much difference between the Wizards and Thunder.

OKC
Pieces in place: Durant, Westbrook, Green, Harden, Sefalosha, Ibaka
Prospects: Aldrich, Maynor, Mullins, DJ White
Extra draft picks going forward: none
Ballpark 2011-2012 cap committments: $37M

Wiz:
Pieces in place: Wall, Arenas, Blatche, McGee
Prospects: Seraphin, Booker, Yi, Thornton, Young, Ndyiae
Extra draft picks going forward: none
Ballpark 2011-2012 cap committments: $53M ($8M is Hinrich expiring, and assuming the Wiz keep Yi, Young and Thornton. If those 3 are let go, Wiz have $42M including Hinrich)

So for all the EG hatred around here and subsequent worship of all-things-Presti, Grunfeld has managed to put the Wizards in a fairly comparable place in 3 months despite Presti having a 3 year head start.

If ANY 2 of the Wiz prospects become "pieces" and the Wiz renounce the rights to the other 4 (other than Seraphin and Booker, none have guaranteed contracts), the Wiz could very easily have as many "pieces" as OKC and more cap room within 1 year.

Curious to see what kind of discussion this starts.

[hands11]

Yeah, I would have to think EG is looking pretty good to Ted and isn't likely to go anywhere.

EG did Teds bidding and seems to have done it well.

As of today, if you're counting down to the firing of EG, I think you will be counting for a while.

This is nothing like the EFJ situation where it was only a matter of times until EG convinced Abe that EFJ needed to go.

The only one deciding if EG stays is Ted and it looks like they are working well together so far.

If the day comes that we need to get a new GM, I hope it is after we have turned the corner and Ted can attract only the best available. So even EG bashers should hope he stays a little longer.

[montestewart]

BTW, I also think it's worth comparing Grunfeld to Sam Presti, since Presti seems to make people drool.

What I really like about him is his clean-cut, boyish good looks. When I get old, I'll probably drool over anything, but I'm not drooling about Presti just yet.

Presti is, without a doubt, one of the best GMs in the game. But if Pritchard drafts Durant over Oden, OKC wouldn't be very good. Even then, looking at the OKC roster and evaluating the "pieces in place", cap space going forward and assets, I don't think there's all that much difference between the Wizards and Thunder.

OKC
Pieces in place: Durant, Westbrook, Green, Harden, Sefalosha, Ibaka
Prospects: Aldrich, Maynor, Mullins, DJ White
Extra draft picks going forward: none
Ballpark 2011-2012 cap committments: $37M

Wiz:
Pieces in place: Wall, Arenas, Blatche, McGee
Prospects: Seraphin, Booker, Yi, Thornton, Young, Ndyiae
Extra draft picks going forward: none
Ballpark 2011-2012 cap committments: $53M ($8M is Hinrich expiring, and assuming the Wiz keep Yi, Young and Thornton. If those 3 are let go, Wiz have $42M including Hinrich)

So for all the EG hatred around here and subsequent worship of all-things-Presti, Grunfeld has managed to put the Wizards in a fairly comparable place in 3 months despite Presti having a 3 year head start.

Regardless of the differences in the two groups and the way they were assembled, it's fair to compare them as they look right now, and the above does a good job of that. I don't really have a big problem with the players EG has put together right now, and didn't really expect much more at this point. Based on past observation, I still think he could have gotten more in return in his trades, had he played his cards right, and I wish Leonsis would translate EG's cryptic comments regarding moves. Now that the big-3 is broken up, that's the primary negative basis of my view of EG, and on the plus side, he seems to be laying off the vet FA market. If this group progresses well, my view can certainly change, and I sure don't hate him (or EJ or Pollin or Kwame or Ruffin or Wizard MJ or really even Lebron or Cavs fans; it is only basketball). I'm just a grousing Wizards fan.

If ANY 2 of the Wiz prospects become "pieces" and the Wiz renounce the rights to the other 4 (other than Seraphin and Booker, none have guaranteed contracts), the Wiz could very easily have as many "pieces" as OKC and more cap room within 1 year.

Curious to see what kind of discussion this starts.

Presti's good, but Durant is the centerpiece of a transformed OKC (as you sort of noted), and some of the other accomplishments seem overstated to me, or at least haven't really paid great dividends yet. Considering where they came from, OKC's 50 wins is nothing to dismiss, but I'll be interested to see if Presti can make the moves to get them beyond that level, or if they will be more a one superstar team (like Lebron's Cavs or Wade's Heat) that only goes as far as their superstar can drag them, which usually is not too far into the playoffs. Like Presti with Durant, EG combined a little luck and the fairly obvious pick with Wall. Nothing wrong with luck. I want a championship, and to be legitimately contending for it fairly soon, but if EG's moves result in something approaching 50 wins (a level the Wizards haven't reached since the 70s) that will get my attention and force me to reassess my view of him as a GM.

[Higga]

I don't think EG is terrible, nor do I think he's outstanding. He's pretty much run of the mill, maybe slightly above average at best. Who are we going to get that's better? I don't think Danny Ainge or Mitch Kupchak are better, both were on the verge of getting fired and sort of lucked into their situations. Pritchard maybe, but he did just get fired too. We aren't getting the Spurs guy.

[go'stags]

One thing to take into account for Presti: He found a very good coach in Scott Brooks, who has had a huge impact on that team. It may have been luck, but I'm sure he saw something, and didn't fire him after a lack of success.(I think EG is pretty solid BTW.)

[closg00]

I don't think EG is terrible, nor do I think he's outstanding. He's pretty much run of the mill, maybe slightly above average at best. Who are we going to get that's better? I don't think Danny Ainge or Mitch Kupchak are better, both were on the verge of getting fired and sort of lucked into their situations. Pritchard maybe, but he did just get fired too. We aren't getting the Spurs guy.

Pritchard did not get fired for how ran the team, there were ego problems between Pritchard and the owner Paul Allen where ultimately Allen tried to humiliate Pritchard by firing him on draft-night, then asking him to work-through the draft. Pritchard also was accused of doing funny-stuff with the finances.
Pritchard & Presti are the top-two GMs in the league IMO. Ernie is a C+ GM.

[no D in Hibachi]

Pritchard & Presti are the top-two GMs in the league IMO. Ernie is a C+ GM.

I think you're placing too much emphasis on which GM's have accumulated prospects rather than which GM's have made bold successful moves to win championships. I'd say that Danny Ainge and Mitch Kupchek are two of the top GM's in the business and easily better than Pritchard & Presti. Ainge has plucked absolute gems in the late first-early second with Rando, Powe, Big Baby, Kendrick Perkins, and I know Al Jefferson was taken at 15, but that was still a damn good spot to pick a 20/10 post player who ended up being the center piece of a KG trade.

It's easy for Presti to score big on his drafts when he's always drafted in the top five and if it weren't for Pritchards mistake the OKC Thunder would be one of the worst teams in the league. Also, Presti absolutely should have taken Evans over Harden. That will be a huge mistake that costs them down the line, huge mistake.

Further, Pritchard sat on his prospects and didn't cash in on them while they still had value. He squandered the trade value of Bayless, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, and Aldridge when he could have used them to acquire an absolute superstar. Ainge gave up 7 picks/prospects for KG, all of whom looked promising but none of them besides Jefferson are worth anything at this point. All that did was bring a championship and almost another ring to Boston.

Lastly, you also can't discount Mitch Kupchek as a GM. He rolled the dice on Bynum when he was a 17 year old pup and Bynum was the difference in the Lakers winning the championship this year. He also swindled the Grizz by ripping off Gasol for jack. Sure you'll say that Chris Wallace was an idiot for making such a lopsided trade, but EG didn't do it even though he had the resources to pull the trigger. In addition, he jettisoned Ariza, who looked very promising last year, for a grizzled lunatic in Artest who happened to win game 6 and game 7 of the finals for the Lakers this year.

I know we can get mesmerized by which teams have the most young talent, but a lot of the time the shine of young talent wears off and I'm sure it will for OKC down the line.

[montestewart]

^
Good post; recent moves transformed into very positive results for the Lakers and Celtics.

I think of Oden not as a mistake but more a bad turn of fate. When he's on the court, he's been quite good and might have been much better, but there's that fragility issue that probably will never go away.