Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10

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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#101 » by semi-sentient » Wed Jul 7, 2010 5:00 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Some more thoughts:

With the top 3, I've got a bit of a triangle going in my head. LeBron seems clearly above Wade, but Wade's got a great case over Kobe, and Kobe's got a great case over LeBron. I don't think I'm going to end up satisfied however I pick.


Same here. I might just have to invoke homer for the tie-breaker.

They've all got their ups and downs.

Wade had an awful start to the season (through December), but picked it up and played well in the playoffs. Kobe came out of the gates tearing it up, had a pretty bad stretch in January/February, then had a great post-season. LeBron had a great regular season from start to finish then flamed out in the post-season.

It's a tougher decision than I thought it would be.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#102 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:01 am

So much of this project has provided fruitful discussion and analysis that should be beneficial to people who choose to read this as a snapshot of NBA seasons for elite individual players. But in this thread, I think there is a disservice being done here (to the project and those people) and I'm almost questioning whether we should even be doing 2010 as so much of what I hear seems to deviate so much from the discussion from past years.

I have plenty to say regarding games and analysis, but I'm not sure it's worth it yet because of the narratives to which some people are clinging. That's all I could think of when I read these first 7 pages -- narratives.

LeBron didn't care. He's not a leader. Againt Cleveland flamed out. He looked off into space once! Cavs fans were angry. Home Court Advantage. Stepping up in the "big game" (which apparently can count 100 times as much as other games, including other proximal playoff games ;) ).

Of course LeBron's teammates didn't show up after his effort. Of course Kobe's did. The Lagacy! INTANGIBLES!

A few specifics I've seen mentioned:

The elbow. This is a small injury anyway we slice it (diagnosis, appearance, affect on play). Thus a small "downgrade" seems consistent per the norm of most people's handling of injuries. I also talked to a few contacts in Cleveland who are doctors and they thought LeBron looked "drugged" (as in pain meds) in game 4. They've watched his whole career. Just an FWIW...although maybe that will change the narratives from "can't trust him" to "silent warrior samurai master leader who battled drugs and still had that series against epic defense and fantastic team." :-?

Then people are going wild with game 5, but what a bad game from other players? I don't get it. Is one game that important or not? Game 7 NBA Finals? Game 3 of a 1-1 series? Closeout games? Etc.

And why not be equally positive about ridiculous good, and important, single games. LeBron went nuts in game 3 after Boston took serve back in game 2.

Now Mufasa brought up a GREAT point - he's going to "penalize" LeBron as if his play "were an injury." Well, this is interesting because he was injured. And we've seen other injured players in this project. But this is one game -- how many players have been injured or missed a game and (presumably) been knocked THREE spots (after the entire group seems to agree they were No. 1 until then by a WIDE margin)? And it wouldn't be a discussion if we didn't all agree he was clearly the best player in the league for the first 90 games. That's what so bizarre about this...Dwyane Wade's probably the only one who was "close" in the first 90 games. Kobe would have been but -- ahem -- he was injured for a lot of the season and had a down year. Yes, he was even injured in the playoffs and had a pretty subpar series. But his team compensated and for some weird reason people aren't scratching their heads and writing narratives to downgrade him.

That stubborn Bryant - if only he had healed instead of playing. Kobe's selfish - he was shooting double-team fadaways in game 7 of the NBA Finals off the side of the backboard! How can you win with that? I can't trust him. He airballed the biggest shot of the season against Phoenix -- he didn't want it! He shot 27% in the 4th quarters of the NBA Finals -- what a choke artist! Etc. Etc. It seems to run contrary to the very nature of the POY threads.

I get that it's a stubborn group at times, all I'm saying is I've been sitting back and reading this for a while and I think some of you guys need to take a step back and think about how much you are adjusting your own bars -- after ~25 years of the project -- in this one season, for this one guy.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#103 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:02 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:For starters, Wade's playoff sample size is all of five games. Despite his gaudy stats, he was able to take a grand total of 1 game from the Celtics. And it's not that his team mates are crappy, his team was the 5th seed. In a 4-5 match up, the guy gets nearly swept and somehow becomes the unanimous POY ?


I'll chime in here with how I see Wade's place in the dilemma: A first round exit, no matter how gaudy the performance, is not enough to move a guy above other guys who were superior in the regular season, and strong in the playoffs leading actual contenders.

However, if a player is superior in the regular season, and he performs on a jawdropping level in the playoffs with his team doing about as well as you'd expect, how do you drop him?

So this is the Kobe/Wade debate for me: Was Kobe better in either the regular season or post-season than Wade? In the regular season he was clearly hurt - it's not a debate about true Kobe/Wade there. Kobe had some great performances in the post-season, but is there any way to think he outplayed Wade when when they both played Boston, Wade looked better?

I should be clear, I probably rate Kobe and LeBron both ahead of Wade - but the above issue is why I'm not easily satisfied in doing so.


What is your analysis of Wade, LeBron and Kobe's play against Boston? How would you rate those three series?
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#104 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:02 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:For starters, Wade's playoff sample size is all of five games. Despite his gaudy stats, he was able to take a grand total of 1 game from the Celtics. And it's not that his team mates are crappy, his team was the 5th seed. In a 4-5 match up, the guy gets nearly swept and somehow becomes the unanimous POY ?


I'll chime in here with how I see Wade's place in the dilemma: A first round exit, no matter how gaudy the performance, is not enough to move a guy above other guys who were superior in the regular season, and strong in the playoffs leading actual contenders.

However, if a player is superior in the regular season, and he performs on a jawdropping level in the playoffs with his team doing about as well as you'd expect, how do you drop him?

So this is the Kobe/Wade debate for me: Was Kobe better in either the regular season or post-season than Wade? In the regular season he was clearly hurt - it's not a debate about true Kobe/Wade there. Kobe had some great performances in the post-season, but is there any way to think he outplayed Wade when when they both played Boston, Wade looked better?

I should be clear, I probably rate Kobe and LeBron both ahead of Wade - but the above issue is why I'm not easily satisfied in doing so.

I still have Kobe over Wade in the RS. Kobe had a rough period when hurt, but Wade also had a tough start to the season. Overall, Kobe ended up 3rd in MVP voting, was All-NBA/All-D 1st team, and led LA to the best record in the West. Wade was 5th in MVP voting, All-NBA 1st & All-D 2nd. Kobe's PS performance leading LA past 4 50+ win teams to a title, trumps Wade's PS by a mile, IMO. So I would say Kobe should be higher. I haven't really heard a compelling argument for Wade yet.

To take it a bit further, I would say Dwight is ahead of Wade too. Even when Orlando has a injury or suspension, Dwight keeps that team at the top of the East. The Magic made the ECF for the 2nd straight year, and Dwight was 4th in MVP voting, DPOY, and All-NBA/All-D 1st. Based on play last year, Dwight is ahead of Wade.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#105 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:41 am

Just to a sprinkle some concrete analysis into the mix, I have James producing 5 of the top 15 games of the NBA Playoffs (unadjusted for opponent strength and intangibles like winning shots):

1. James G4 v Bulls
2. James G3 v Celtics
3. Richardson G3 v Blazers
4. Howard G3 v Hawks
5. Gasol G4 v Jazz
6. Nowitzki G1 v Spurs
7. Bryant G4 v Suns
8. Williams G2 v Nuggets
9. James G1 v Boston
10. James G3 v Bulls
11. Anthony G1 v Jazz
12. Allen G2 v Lakers
13. Duncan G2 v Suns
14. James G2 v Bulls
15. Williams G3 v Nuggets

For those wondering about Wade's game 4 (just missed the cut) he was done in by 6 turnovers and a below average defensive game. And again, this is unadjusted for opponent strength, or obviously a game like Wade's G4 would be high on the list.

Same criteria as above, this time top series performers instead of games:

1. Howard v Atl
2. James v Chi
3. Gasol v Uta
4. Richardson v Por
5. Nelson v. Char
6. Bryant v Pho
7. Wade v Bos
8. Nash v Sas
9. Williams v Den
10. Nowitzki v Sas

(James v Bos was No. 12, FWIW. Bryant v Bos didn't crack the top 30. Durant didn't make the top 50.).

Again, unadjusted so take them for what they are worth: an estimate of a player's raw contributions on offense and defense.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#106 » by Minge » Wed Jul 7, 2010 7:01 am

ElGee wrote:-snipped-
Same criteria as above, this time top series performers instead of games:

1. Howard v Atl
2. James v Chi
3. Gasol v Uta
4. Richardson v Por
5. Nelson v. Char
6. Bryant v Pho
7. Wade v Bos
8. Nash v Sas
9. Williams v Den
10. Nowitzki v Sas

LMAO. 41.5 MPG 33.7 PPG 7.2 RPG 8.3 APG 52.1 FG% 43.2 3P% 88.1 FT%

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Layups/Dunks: 7-11 (FG%: 63.6%; AS%: 57.1%) | Assisted: Gasol, Odom, Fisher, Artest

4-8 Feet: 3-9 (FG%: 33.3%)

  1. 4-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 7:52)
  2. 4-footer (Gm 2: 2nd Qtr, :57) | Blocked: Stoudemire
  3. 5-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 10:04)
  4. 5-footer (Gm 2: 1st Qtr, 6:24)
  5. 6-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, :19)
  6. 7-footer (Gm 1: 1st Qtr, 1:00)
  7. 7-footer (Gm 3: 2nd Qtr, 5:18)
  8. 8-footer (Gm 1: 2nd Qtr, 4:48)
  9. 8-footer (Gm 4: 4th Qtr, 9:33)
9-15 Feet: 17-29 (FG%: 58.6%; AS%: 11.8%)

  1. 9-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, :41)
  2. 9-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, 5:31) | Assisted: Fisher
  3. 9-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, 8:15)
  4. 9-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 2:16)
  5. 9-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, :02)
  6. 10-footer (Gm 2: 4th Qtr, 6:41)
  7. 10-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, 10:02)
  8. 10-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 1:15)
  9. 11-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 10:22)
  10. 11-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 4:31)
  11. 11-footer (Gm 4: 4th Qtr, :26)
  12. 12-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, 1:08)
  13. 12-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, 5:39)
  14. 13-footer (Gm 3: 2nd Qtr, 4:52)
  15. 13-footer (Gm 1: 1st Qtr, 8:30)
  16. 13-footer (Gm 2: 1st Qtr, 8:47)
  17. 13-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, 2:32)
  18. 13-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, 6:19)
  19. 14-footer (Gm 1: 2nd Qtr, 3:03)
  20. 14-footer (Gm 2: 3rd Qtr, 7:54) | Assisted: Artest
  21. 14-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 10:38)
  22. 14-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 9:47)
  23. 14-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, 1:45)
  24. 14-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, 3:44) | Blocked: Stoudemire
  25. 14-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, 9:26)
  26. 15-footer (Gm 2: 3rd Qtr, 10:15)
  27. 15-footer (Gm 5: 1st Qtr, 10:02)
  28. 15-footer (Gm 4: 1st Qtr, 6:31)
  29. 15-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 7:11)
16-22 Feet: 27-46 (FG%: 58.7%; AS%: 33.3%)

  1. 16-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 11:12)
  2. 16-footer (Gm 2: 1st Qtr, 11:41)
  3. 16-footer (Gm 2: 2nd Qtr, :32)
  4. 16-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 2:06)
  5. 16-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 3:08) | Assisted: Odom
  6. 16-footer (Gm 4: 4th Qtr, 1:31)
  7. 16-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, 10:23) | Assisted: Gasol
  8. 16-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, :41)
  9. 16-footer (Gm 1: 2nd Qtr, 2:45)
  10. 16-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 8:55)
  11. 16-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 6:39)
  12. 17-footer (Gm 1: 1st Qtr, :01)
  13. 17-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 7:26)
  14. 17-footer (Gm 2: 3rd Qtr, :30)
  15. 17-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 3:42) | Assisted: Fisher
  16. 17-footer (Gm 2: 1st Qtr, 7:22)
  17. 17-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, 6:20)
  18. 18-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 4:52)
  19. 18-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 1:07)
  20. 18-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, 2:09) | Assisted: Gasol
  21. 18-footer (Gm 1: 1st Qtr, 11:42)
  22. 18-footer (Gm 2: 4th Qtr, 6:13)
  23. 19-footer (Gm 1: 4th Qtr, 9:34) | Assisted: Farmar
  24. 19-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, :47) | Assisted: Farmar
  25. 19-footer (Gm 2: 4th Qtr, 9:37)
  26. 19-footer (Gm 6: 2nd Qtr, 4:33)
  27. 20-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 7:20) | Assisted: Farmar
  28. 20-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, 10:33)
  29. 20-footer (Gm 1: 2nd Qtr, 4:07)
  30. 20-footer (Gm 2: 2nd Qtr, 8:00)
  31. 20-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 4:48)
  32. 20-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, 11:40)
  33. 20-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, 3:10)
  34. 21-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 8:56)
  35. 21-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 3:11)
  36. 21-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 8:19) | Assisted: Brown
  37. 21-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, 4:33)
  38. 21-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, 1:59)
  39. 21-footer (Gm 3: 2nd Qtr, 1:00)
  40. 21-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 3:17)
  41. 22-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 7:52) | Assisted: Odom
  42. 22-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 3:10)
  43. 22-footer (Gm 6: 2nd Qtr, 4:18)
  44. 23-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, :35)
  45. 23-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, :00)
  46. 24-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, :00)
3-Pointers: 19-44 (FG%: 43.2%; AS%: 57.9%)

  1. 23-footer (Gm 6: 2nd Qtr, 5:52)
  2. 23-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 5:24)
  3. 23-footer (Gm 2: 1st Qtr, 2:10)
  4. 24-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, 4:41)
  5. 24-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 6:24)
  6. 25-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 5:50) | Assisted: Fisher
  7. 25-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 6:18)
  8. 25-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 7:22)
  9. 25-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 6:52)
  10. 25-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 11:10) | Assisted: Gasol
  11. 25-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, 8:18)
  12. 25-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, 6:20)
  13. 25-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 11:30)
  14. 25-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 10:19)
  15. 25-footer (Gm 5: 2nd Qtr, 3:54)
  16. 25-footer (Gm 5: 3rd Qtr, 8:25)
  17. 25-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, 3:51)
  18. 26-footer (Gm 1: 1st Qtr, :34)
  19. 26-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 9:37) | Assisted: Artest
  20. 26-footer (Gm 2: 1st Qtr, 3:36)
  21. 26-footer (Gm 3: 3rd Qtr, 2:14) | Assisted: Gasol
  22. 26-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, 2:03) | Assisted: Odom
  23. 26-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 8:45) | Assisted: Artest
  24. 26-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 2:19) | Assisted: Farmar
  25. 26-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, 6:31) | Assisted: Fisher
  26. 26-footer (Gm 2: 3rd Qtr, :02)
  27. 26-footer (Gm 3: 1st Qtr, :42)
  28. 26-footer (Gm 3: 2nd Qtr, 3:38)
  29. 26-footer (Gm 3: 4th Qtr, 1:36)
  30. 26-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 9:29)
  31. 26-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, 5:28)
  32. 26-footer (Gm 5: 4th Qtr, :02)
  33. 26-footer (Gm 6: 1st Qtr, 5:48)
  34. 27-footer (Gm 1: 4th Qtr, 10:41) | Assisted: Farmar
  35. 27-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 1:00)
  36. 27-footer (Gm 1: 4th Qtr, 10:15)
  37. 27-footer (Gm 3: 3rd Qtr, 11:47)
  38. 27-footer (Gm 4: 2nd Qtr, :01)
  39. 27-footer (Gm 6: 3rd Qtr, 4:03)
  40. 28-footer (Gm 6: 2nd Qtr, :12) | Assisted: Artest
  41. 28-footer (Gm 1: 3rd Qtr, 5:41)
  42. 28-footer (Gm 3: 2nd Qtr, :00)
  43. 28-footer (Gm 6: 4th Qtr, 8:11)
  44. 29-footer (Gm 4: 3rd Qtr, 9:21) | Assisted: Gasol
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhBKIcl6FYA[/youtube]

Kobe Bryant -- The Suns tried to throw their newly crowned defensive stopper, Grant Hill, on Kobe. Hill was well-versed from the Battier school of Kobe defensive tactics. Hill would tag team with Jared Dudley. Some 40 points and a blowout later and the Suns found themselves with the same problem the Jazz had. A spry, rested Black Mamba is trouble. Kobe attacked the paint, hit jumpers, cut off the ball and showed his general versatility that gives defenders fits. "So much for this improved defense," Reggie Miller said right afterward. The Suns will try to make adjustments, but that will likely mean committing more numbers to Kobe. Phil suspects quick doubles will come to get the ball out of his hands. Phil said he wasn't sure what Kobe's reactive time or shooting would be like without running in practice. Kobe was optimistic all week, however, and looked in A-game form. Asked if he was trying to make a statement as the best player on the planet now that LeBron was out, Kobe didn't bite. "I'd like to get one more cookie, though," he said, as in "Hey, LeBron. Have you seen my championship rings?"

The Stats: He scored 40 points on 13-23 shooting (3-6 from three, 11-12 from the line) to go with 5 boards, 5 assists, 1 steal, 2 turnovers and 1 foul in 35 minutes. He was a +20.

The Action: He missed a wing jumper over Hill on the first possession. He missed a fading baseline pull-up. He kicked to Ron for a three. He attacked Hill and drew FTs on Amare, he made both. He hit Lamar under the hoop off an attack and it led to a layup. Dudley in to cover Kobe, he went right after him and drew two quick fouls, he made both FTs. He attacked, took contact with no call and hit the floater. He swished a two-for-one three attempt. He set up the screen, attacked right and swished the long kickstand baseline jumper at the first quarter buzzer. He had 11 points on 3-5 shooting in the first. He was tripped on a step-through and didn't get the call. He missed a three he had to take against the shtoclock. He sank a pull-up at the elbow working off the high screen. He missed an early offense jumper next time down and was looking for the foul. He attacked and hit Pau for the layup. Superb footwork off the pull-up to draw FTs on a step-through, he made one. Working off the high screen his pass to DJ was picked off. He crossed over Hill badly (sending him to the floor), but Kobe missed the floater (Powell dunked it in). He had 14 points on 4-10 shooting (5-6 from the line) and 3 assists.

Second Half: He sank a tough turnaround at the elbow with the shotclock going off. He split a double team and flipped in a layup over a third defender. He swished a long three off the swing pass. He attacked and missed at the rim, then picked up a tech when he didn't get the call. He swished a face-up jumper over Hill. Hill was whistled for a foul and picked up a tech, Kobe sank it, then made both of the foul FTs. He missed a wing three. He stripped Amare on one end, then hit a face-up jumper on the other. He tried to iso, didn't get anything, wisely gave it up to Fish, who hit Pau, Kobe cut off it for an And-1 layup, he made the FT (great sequence). He busted out off a Laker steal and streaked in for a dunk. He was stripped on a drive. He settled for a three when his man flew by, it led to a early offense three the other way. He attacked before a double team came at the end of the quarter and drew FTs with 3.6 seconds left, he made both. He had 21 points on 7-10 shooting (6-6 from the line) in the third. He sank an open three on a kickout. He missed a pull-up three next time down. He swished an elbow jumper on a quick pivot away from his man. He got to sit on the bench for the rest of the fourth.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sbNfVNc1s0[/youtube]

Kobe Bryant -- "There's a reason he's the best basketball player in the world," Gentry said. Kobe looked to spread the ball around from the start, perhaps passing a little too much a couple of times, but he orchestrated the offense well. He had 9 assists in the first half as he picked apart the Suns D. In the second half, he usually gets a little more aggressive with his shot when he has these types of games. He actually shot less in the second half of this game. His passing was brilliant. He put the ball on the money to open perimeter players. He threw bullets to teammates under the hoop for layups. Late in the game, he continually got the ball to Pau to go to work. He conducted the orchestra with precision and tied his season high with 13 assists. It was in the Western Conference Finals last year when Kobe's complete game took over. The other end of the floor could use a little more work. He was soft defensively (except for a great block on Amare), but he was not making an attempt to recover to shooters or was often very late when he did. The defensive rotations certainly had something to do with that but often Kobe was getting caught in no man's land without purpose or didn't make the extra effort that he has been. He'll need to tighten that up when those small Suns units have more shooters on the floor.

The Stats: He scored 21 points on 8-18 shooting (1-3 from three, 4-4 from the line) to go with 5 boards, 13 assists, 1 block, 2 turnovers and 2 fouls in 43 minutes. He was a +14.

The Action: He sank a wing jumper to start the game. He missed a short jumper. He overpassed on the break instead of dunking, turnover by Pau. He picked up a foul getting caught in the air, but thought he was standing up straight. He missed a leaning jumper. He got it back, blew past defenders with a hesitation move and scored a layup. He missed a short jumper in the lane, got it back and couldn't knock down the follow up. He was fouled twice on one offensive possession and drew FTs, he made both. He backed off JRich and he hit a three on him. He missed a corner three. He swished an open three over the zone. He hit Ron at the buzzer for an open three. He had 9 points on 3-8 shooting and 6 assists in the first. He missed a jumper short, then lost his man on the other end for a three. He missed a short bank. He kicked to Artest for a three. He got picked for a dunk trying to cross over Dudley. He hit Fish for a three next time down. He missed a wild shot in the paint. He swished an elbow pull-up. He had 11 points on 4-11 shooting and 9 assists.

Second Half: He attacked the lane, slammed on the breaks and hit the short jumper. He sank a pull-up elbow jumper. He blocked Amare's dunk from behind, great play. No close out and he gave up a three. Horrible pass in traffic, uncontested score the other way. He sank a pull-up in the lane. He missed a three at the end of the third. He had 6 points on 3-6 shooting. He whipped a no-looker off the dribble to Pau for a layup. Dudley hit a wide open three on him next time down. He bricked trying to draw contact on a jumper. He backed his man down, then jump passed to Lamar for a layup. He lost Hill with a behind-the-back dribble and he hit the open baseline pull-up jumper. He missed an open baseline jumper. He whipped a pass from the corner to a cutting Pau for an And-1. He drew FTs on the perimeter, he made both. He hit Pau slipping a screen for an And-1 (Kobe telling him "Go! Go! Go!).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lcy2FChmwKQ[/youtube]

Kobe Bryant -- Kobe had a near triple-double, connecting early and often . Taking what the defense gave him as Phil said. His perimeter shot looked good early, but the minutes might have caught up to him a little later. He started the game with 15 points on 7-9 shooting and 4 assists in the first quarter. It was one of his miscues in the fourth, however, that put the Lakers in a huge hole. A simple unforced error, he just took his eyes off the ball, then tried to save it and the Suns quickly hit a three. The Lakers never recovered from that.

The Stats: He scored 36 points on 13-24 shooting (2-8 from three, 8-8 from the line) to go with 9 boards, 11 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 5 turnovers and 3 fouls in 43 minutes. He was a -12.

The Action: He grabbed an offensive board in a crowd and sank a short turnaround. He hit a long wing jumper off the dribble. He was stripped for points the other way. He scored a layup off the slip screen. He hit Lamar on a lob. He nailed a wing three. He hit a wing jumper on iso. He missed a short lefty bank. He spun away from a double and sank a baseline jumper. He swished a sideline jumper. He then took a quick-fire wing three in early offense (this miss resulted in Lamar's second foul of the quarter in transition D). He took the drop pass from Pau, drew the D and hit Pau for the dunk (one of the better sequences all game). He cleaned up a Lamar missed drive. He attacked across the lane and hit a hanging jumper. He missed a long three against the zone. He found Pau in the lane for a layup. Weak offensive foul as Kobe attacked off the dribble and Nash caught an inadvertant elbow. He missed an iso jumper, quick counter attack for FTs the other way. He lost the ball against the zone with the shotclock low. He missed a long three at the end of the half. He had 19 points at the half.

Second Half: He was flat on a three, it led to transition points the other way to start the half. He hit Ron for the open three. No ball movement against the zone, then he threw a pass away. He spotted Pau on the high-low next time down for a layup. He kicked out to Fish for a three. He swished a long three, bailing out the offense after a bad possession against the zone. He attacked the zone and drew FTs, finally, with just a few seconds left in the third, he made both. He drew FTs with 3 seconds left and made both. He probed the lane and hit the short one-hannder. Killer sequence, he took his eyes off a pass, fumbled it and then threw it away, it led to a three the other way with 7 minutes left. He missed a quick-fire three. He missed a step-through in traffic next time down. He drew FTs on the offensive glass, he made both. Quick attack down the middle of the lane and he drew FTs, he made both. He missed a pull-up jumper. He attacked, spun through the D and scored a layup. Down big, he missed a three. He sank a runner. He missed a floater, but Pau tipped it in.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YkPVvcxki4[/youtube]

Kobe Bryant -- He was the only real weapon the Lakers had in this game. He was on fire between the second and third quarters trying to fight back a Phoenix storm. He was burying threes and exposing the soft spots of the zone. Then Phil rested him with a minute left in the third. When he came back, we didn't go after it with him like we should have, effectively chilling the red hot hand. "The ball's got to find the hot man," Kevin McHale said afterward. CWebb called out Kobe's teammates afterward for not getting him the ball. Kobe worked the left wing of the zone again and again when he was raining jumpers down. When he wasn't draining jumpers, he was setting up teammates. The team just didn't go back to it like they should have and managed their worst scoring quarter of the night in the fourth. Kobe didn't use that as an excuse. "We lost the game because our defense sucked," he said.

The Stats: He scored 38 points on 15-22 shooting (6-9 from three, 2-4 from the line) to go with 7 boards, 10 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 turnovers and 3 fouls in 45 minutes. He was a -4.

The Action: He tried to split a double team and couldn't get through cleanly (looked held), turnover. He missed a short baseline jumper. He hit Pau cutting down the middle of the lane for a layup. He hit Pau over the zone with a lob. He ball-watched and Dudley hit an open three. He missed a contested three trying to get it back on the other end. He drained a long wing jumper, his first field goal with 8 minutes left in the half. He then went to work. He sank another one from the same spot next time down. He fouled Dudley from behind on a jumper. He drained a wing three, getting hit with no call (he was ticked). He stuck a sideline three next time down. He sank a toe-on-the-three-line jumper. He ball-watched and gave up a putback layup. He sank a wing three next time down. He missed a long three at the halftime buzzer. He had 15 points on 6-8 shooting and 5 assists at the half.

Second Half: He blocked Lopez from behind. He up-faked JRich and drew FTs, he made one. He sank a baseline pull-up jumper. He drained a 30-footer over the zone. He popped out from the back screen next time down and sank the wing three. He missed a baseline jumper. He missed a wing three over the zone. He got penetration and dished to Pau for the dunk. He missed a wing jumper. He sank a pull-up jumper in a transition scramble. He swished a baseline fade. He swished a wing three on the next possession. He drew the D in the corner and hit Lamar cutting for a layup. He had 16 points in the third. He lost the handle to start the fourth. He was hit on a baseline jumper with no call and missed. Dudley hit a three on him when he sagged off to help. He swiped the ball from Barbosa and hit Artest for a layup. He made a tech FT. He pumped Nash into the air and hit an And-1 wing jumper on him, he missed the FT. He sliced through the zone and scored a layup. He sank a pull-up jumper in the lane.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef28xmg761A[/youtube]

Kobe Bryant -- He came to play. He was amped up and ready to go for the kill. That fire was quickly chilled, however. Got to love that homecourt whistle. He started the game on the bench with two loose ball fouls in two and a half minutes. That was a shot to the gut that had the team staggered. Phil would bring him back later in the first to play with the foul troubles. He cut down on his attacks, was cautious on D and avoided picking up the third foul of the half. When asked about the two quick fouls afterward, he just stared at the questioner. He didn't say a thing until prompted again, then said "unfortunate" to use the reporter's words. He may have been more steamed about the very inconsistent whistle. There were times when he seemed obviously fouled and the refs didn't call it. Eventually, it cost Kobe a tech. In the fourth, he settled a bit too much for jumpers. It could be he was tired. It could be he felt he wasn't going to be able to manufacture any FTs. DFish joked about Kobe going for 40/20/10 in this game. He played that way. He even had 4 blocks. No assist for Kobe on the airball and he finished an assist shy of the triple-double. This was Kobe's 190th playoff game, tying him with Magic for most by a Laker.

The Stats: He scored 30 points on 12-27 shooting (4-10 from three, 2-3 from the line) to go with 11 boards (3 offensive), 9 assists, 4 blocks, 2 turnovers and 3 fouls in 43 minutes. He was +4.

The Action: He lost the ball on the first possession. He was called for a loose ball foul when Hill flailed after losing it and fell to the floor (Kobe was beating him to the ball and he ran into Kobe). He sank a pull-up wing jumper for the Lakers first score. He missed a drive, looking for a foul, then picked up his second foul crashing the glass on the miss and had to sit only 3 minutes into the game. Back in, he ball-watched and it led to a dunk. He blocked Amare's drive (risky with the foul situation, but he was careful on it). He had 2 points on 1-2 shooting and 2 assists. He pushed out the break and drew FTs, he wanted the goaltend, he made both. He missed an open three. He somehow banked in a hanging jumper from about 10 feet out. Great effort to pull down a Sasha miss while avoiding a foul, he then found Lamar for FTs. He missed a tech FT. He drained a three off a screen. He drained another wing three over the zone. He sank a step-back three in early offense, third straight three to force a timeout. He forced a pass into a crowd, points the other way. He missed a three in transition. He missed a reverse. He missed a pull-up jumper from the wing. He had 15 points on 5-10 shooting (3-5 from three) and 4 assists.

Second Half: He missed a wing jumper. Sank an elbow jumper over Nash and the zone. He missed a three. He dunked off the pass from Ron on the break. He moved in off the three line and hit the short one-hander from the left side. He rejected Amare off the glass to ignite a break. He missed a baseline jumper. He sank a short wing jumper. All kinds of contact on a drive, no call. He drained a wing three over the zone. Bad chuck from three, challenged over the zone. He then picked up a tech. He got tapped on an elbow jumper. He swished a fading wing jumper. He bricked a pumping wing jumper. He scooped up a loose ball and hit Pau with a long outlet for a layup. He got tapped on a three over the zone. He swished a pull-up wing jumper. He settled and missed a long wing jumper. He hit Pau cutting out of a timeout for FTs. He found LO under the hoop for a layup. He fired from 3 quickly on the inbounds, Ron saw Kobe fouled, tracked the airball and put it a the buzzer.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUpd8eo-HAc[/youtube]

Kobe Bryant -- Kobe was not going to lose to the Suns again. When the Suns seemed to gain some momentum in the second half, Kobe answered their challenge again and again. Late in the game, he stuck the dagger in them with an insanely difficult wing jumper in front of the Suns bench. He then gave Gentry a love tap, essentially telling them they were done. "What can you say about Kobe?" Gentry said afterward. There is no one in this game you would rather have in a foxhole. He is simply the most fearless and feared there is. People wrote him off. They said he was too old. They took him for granted playing through multiple injuries and wear and tear from the season. He's still Kobe. As quickly as he knocked the Suns out, he will focus his attention on one more score to settle with the Celtics. "I don't give a damn who play," Kobe said when asked about it. He said he was looking forward to the challenge and seeing how much his team has grown. Kobe tied Kareem for second with most 30+ playoff games tonight. Bleeding from his left hand, he had to sit briefly during the first quarter while getting patched up. Just a cut that didn't affect his game.

The Stats: He scored 37 points on 12-25 shooting (3-8 from three, 10-11 from the line) to go with 6 boards, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 turnovers and 1 foul in 41 minutes. He was a +19.

The Action: He drained a wing pull-up jumper on his first attempt. He attacked left, took contact and threw up an And-1 bank, he made the FT. He drained a wing three over the zone. He airballed a three next time down. He was blocked, picked up the ball again and called for a travel. His repost pass was stolen. He was knocked over by Amare on a jumper, he still made it despite the no-call. He missed a leaner trying to draw contact at the end of the first. He had 10 points on 4-7 shooting in the first. He missed an open corner three. He missed a wing bank. He drew contact on a leaner from the three line and didn't get the call on the miss. He swished about a 37-foot three with the shotclock at 7. He had 13 points on 5-11 shooting (2-4 from three) and 1 assist.

Second Half: He sank a pull-up jumper standing on the three line. He got JRich in the air at the FT line and drew the foul on the jumper, he made both. He missed a turnaround at the FT line. He attacked off the three line on a kickout and drew FTs at the rim, he made both. He settled and missed a long three over the zone. He drained a FT jumper creating over Dudley. He sank a tough fading baseline jumper. He sank a tough baseline jumper around a double team. He swiped an inbounds pass but couldn't hit at the third quarter buzzer. He had 13 on 4-7 shooting in the third. He missed a difficult baseline turnaround in early offense. He missed an open three. He missed a tough pull-up jumper, settling. He somehow made a runner on a step through from about 16 feet out with the shotclock going off (crazy good skills there). He missed a three, Lamar got it back. He sank a difficult wing jumper over a double team. He scooped up a loose ball, attacked and drew FTs, he made both with 1:43 left. He drained a tough pumping jumper standing on the three line with Hill all over him and the shotclock low (he then gave Gentry the slap on the rear, up 7 with 34 seconds left). He was fouled with 13 seconds left, he made one FT. He was fouled with 8 seconds left, he made both FTs. "At this time right now, he's the best player in basketball and I don't even think it's close," Gentry said afterward.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#107 » by KINGD » Wed Jul 7, 2010 7:14 am

:lol:
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#108 » by Gongxi » Wed Jul 7, 2010 9:28 am

There are people that prize objective analysis, who work to avoid cognitive biases as best possible and who hate anecdotal evidence. And then there are people for whom emotions and assorted snapshots from a large picture and imagine it represents the full one.

I remember the Durant vs. Kobe thread in the middle of the LAL-OKC series. Most people- aside from Laker fans and Mrs. Bryant, Minge- agreed that Durant was actually the better player or the two throughout the regular season, whether because of Kobe's injuries or not. But the Lakers win the championship and then suddenly Kobe contends for being the best player in the NBA? While playing worse against the same team that eliminated the Cavs than either LeBron or Wade?

For years now, I've been called a McGrady homer, a Jordan homer, a Wade homer, a LeBron homer, etc because I don't think Kobe is what his superfans think he is, because I'm actually a homer for objective- not stories and opinions!- analysis and avoiding misperceptions. Now I'm also contending with the contingent that confuses team success with player production.

I'm reminded of a two quotes:

Addicted to a naïve stimulus-response philosophy, we tend to take it for granted that people’s actions depend on nothing but the momentary stimuli that we, the manipulators, can control at will.

-Paul Kecskemeti

You only need to change a few words for that one to make sense. And closer to home:

Those who are right, in politics as in science, are rarely distinguished from those who are wrong by their superior ability to judge specific bits of information…Rather, the expectations and predispositions of those who are right have provided a closer match to the situation than did those who are wrong. Thus many of the people who interpreted early bits of information about Watergate as indicating that President Nixon was implicated drew correct inferences because they had previously distrusted the man. The very fact that they were so quick to consider him guilty points to the importance of their previous views and the relatively slight role played by closer observation of the immediate events. Those who took the opposite position were wrong not because of their faulty reading of the direct evidence- until near the end their reading was at least as plausible as was that of those who were correct- but because of their basic misunderstanding of the president.

-Robert Jervis

You shouldn't need to replace anything for that to make sense. I can think of another fine example...

Why am I talking about the methodology and not talking about X's and O's or even production? One, because I think to many people those things simply don't matter; at least not so far as being of use other than to support their preconceived notions. And second, because even if they do, it doesn't matter if they're applied fallaciously.

But hey, even though he played worse than the other two guys that are clearly in the top 3 against the same team, and in fact had a worse playoff than those two in general, because his team one, one guy simply MUST have intangibles that the other two lack. It's gotta be!
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#109 » by bert stein » Wed Jul 7, 2010 9:52 am

Gongxi wrote:There are people that prize objective analysis, who work to avoid cognitive biases as best possible and who hate anecdotal evidence. And then there are people for whom emotions and assorted snapshots from a large picture and imagine it represents the full one.

Addicted to a naïve stimulus-response philosophy, we tend to take it for granted that people’s actions depend on nothing but the momentary stimuli that we, the manipulators, can control at will.

-Paul Kecskemeti

You only need to change a few words for that one to make sense. And closer to home:

Those who are right, in politics as in science, are rarely distinguished from those who are wrong by their superior ability to judge specific bits of information…Rather, the expectations and predispositions of those who are right have provided a closer match to the situation than did those who are wrong. Thus many of the people who interpreted early bits of information about Watergate as indicating that President Nixon was implicated drew correct inferences because they had previously distrusted the man. The very fact that they were so quick to consider him guilty points to the importance of their previous views and the relatively slight role played by closer observation of the immediate events. Those who took the opposite position were wrong not because of their faulty reading of the direct evidence- until near the end their reading was at least as plausible as was that of those who were correct- but because of their basic misunderstanding of the president.

-Robert Jervis



I particularly like the jervis quote - which is consistent with the point that in noisy, data-poor environments, adherence to an objective methodology isn't going to get you much closer, if at all, to the truth than subjective evaluation, regardless of the possible corruption of the latter. unfortunately, in the case of basketball where the publicly available metrics to the casual fan are poorly correlated with whatever we wish to define as "performance", "objective" analysis is simply another form of cognitive failure - albeit one that doesn't tilt towards one's favorite player.

which is why we pat those casual fans who "prize objective analysis" gently on their head and give them a cookie.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#110 » by semi-sentient » Wed Jul 7, 2010 2:31 pm

GJ Minge. The self-proclaimed objective crowd that enjoys watching box scores refresh over real analysis (i.e. what actually happens on the court during the course of a game) are going to hate you for it, because they're like, so objective and non-biased.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#111 » by LAKERS_1981 » Wed Jul 7, 2010 3:26 pm

1. Kobe
2. Lebron
3. Wade
4. Durant
5. Howard.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#112 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 7, 2010 3:55 pm

Gongxi wrote:There are people that prize objective analysis, who work to avoid cognitive biases as best possible and who hate anecdotal evidence. And then there are people for whom emotions and assorted snapshots from a large picture and imagine it represents the full one.

I remember the Durant vs. Kobe thread in the middle of the LAL-OKC series. Most people- aside from Laker fans and Mrs. Bryant, Minge- agreed that Durant was actually the better player or the two throughout the regular season, whether because of Kobe's injuries or not. But the Lakers win the championship and then suddenly Kobe contends for being the best player in the NBA? While playing worse against the same team that eliminated the Cavs than either LeBron or Wade?

There is a case that Durant played better in the RS than Kobe, but that was easily trumped by Kobe's PS performance.

Kobe was 3rd in MVP voting, and made both All-NBA 1st & All-D 1st team. KD was #2 in MVP voting, All-NBA, but not the defender Kobe was. In the PS Kobe led LA past four 50 win teams(including KD's), and won Finals MVP in that Boston series. Was his shooting off in the FInals, yes, but he more than made up for it with his defense & leadership in those FInals. And Boston was not the same team mentally in the FInals that played Miami or even Cleveland. The stakes alone were vastly different, as were the matchups. This is afterall a project for player of the year, so actually accomplishment should play a major factor.

I would also point out that you put Wade at #1 in 2006, despite him being All-NBA 2nd team, no All-D, and 6th in MVP. You went on to say this, "And, as I said, if the whole thing ended with the regular season, Kobe would have this, but because Wade put on a convincing Jordan impression in the ECF and Finals...this is Dwayne's year."
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#113 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 7, 2010 4:13 pm

Again...What makes Durant clearly a better player than Melo?
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#114 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 7, 2010 4:36 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:Again...What makes Durant clearly a better player than Melo?

It's not that KD is a better player yet, it's that he played a better year and was way more consistent in 2010.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#115 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 7, 2010 5:03 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Again...What makes Durant clearly a better player than Melo?

It's not that KD is a better player yet, it's that he played a better year and was way more consistent in 2010.


Melo led his team to 53 wins, while Durant led his to 50. They played in the same, tough conference. Melo did have a better supporting cast, but he also had more injuries to his top teammates, while Durant's team had some remarkable luck with health this year. Unfortunately, coach Karl had to leave the team at the end of the season as well.

IIRC, Nene, Martin, and I believe even Birdman at some point had injury issues during their first round series. Melo tried his hardest to do what it took to win the series, averaging 31 and increasing his efforts on the defensive glass while his frontcourt mates were not 100%. He shot 46% and 56% TS%. He averaged 2 steals per game and had better assist and turnover numbers than Durant. He ranked higher in advanced metrics.

I can see an argument for Durant. Maybe. But if Melo is on your radar and everybody else's radar, Melo needs to be, too.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#116 » by Sedale Threatt » Wed Jul 7, 2010 5:47 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:With the top 3, I've got a bit of a triangle going in my head. LeBron seems clearly above Wade, but Wade's got a great case over Kobe, and Kobe's got a great case over LeBron. I don't think I'm going to end up satisfied however I pick.


This is the best comment in the entire thread, hands down.

Other than the pompous psuedo-intellecuality, of course.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#117 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:04 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:Again...What makes Durant clearly a better player than Melo?


In the regular season at least, Durant rates superior to Melo in basically every possible metric. Far better scoring efficiency, better PER, light years better +/-, etc. Why is this stuff irrelevant to you?
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#118 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:08 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:I still have Kobe over Wade in the RS. Kobe had a rough period when hurt, but Wade also had a tough start to the season. Overall, Kobe ended up 3rd in MVP voting, was All-NBA/All-D 1st team, and led LA to the best record in the West. Wade was 5th in MVP voting, All-NBA 1st & All-D 2nd. Kobe's PS performance leading LA past 4 50+ win teams to a title, trumps Wade's PS by a mile, IMO. So I would say Kobe should be higher. I haven't really heard a compelling argument for Wade yet.

To take it a bit further, I would say Dwight is ahead of Wade too. Even when Orlando has a injury or suspension, Dwight keeps that team at the top of the East. The Magic made the ECF for the 2nd straight year, and Dwight was 4th in MVP voting, DPOY, and All-NBA/All-D 1st. Based on play last year, Dwight is ahead of Wade.


If you rate Kobe ahead in the RS, then there's no Wade dilemma for you. Makes sense.

Re: Dwight vs Wade. I had Dwight ahead of both Kobe and Wade after the regular season, but changed my mind with the playoffs. As we saw, Dwight still disappears at time - and his supporting cast basically showed they could get to the 2nd round without him. I just can't see him as a reliable superstar up there with the Big 3.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#119 » by Sedale Threatt » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:15 pm

Agree with that as well. Phenomenal defensive player, but he doesn't do enough to be considered with three of the best all-around perimeter players in history.
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Re: Player of the Year Discussion (Not Voting) Thread 2009-10 

Post#120 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jul 7, 2010 6:17 pm

ElGee wrote:What is your analysis of Wade, LeBron and Kobe's play against Boston? How would you rate those three series?


Wade seemed clearly ahead of the other two. He looked great. I'm reluctant to reward a guy too much for a losing series where his team got beaten easily. I'd really love to see your take on him. Do you think that if Boston played hims later in the playoffs that have played better? Do you think that Wade's success was partly due to a strategy of letting-Wade-get-his?

Kobe & LeBron are close. Kobe went into his typical "I'm going shoot my way out of it" mode several times where he really shouldn't have - including in Game 7. However, after Game 3, LeBron really never got into a groove again, and his Game 5 was clearly the worst performance between those two players in the playoffs. I probably give Kobe the nod just on those two series - but Kobe's problems are chronic ones, whereas I doubt LeBron ever has Game 5 again.

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