Championship: why not, or how. Strategy, tactics, best hopes

[hands11]

Hoop

You make a lot a very valid points. Heck, you may even be right. I guess it's just all so complicated for me to wrap my head around right now. Maybe I'm the one falling into the trap and that is the trap of being tired of being a fan of a below average owner and a team that never lined up it's assets for the best chance of success. I guess I just want to see that for once.

[doclinkin]

Where I'm at:

Rebuilding is rebuilding. When you hire a new coach with a radically different philosophy after 7 years in a particular system, you have to shrug and assume you'll need to workshop and woodshed for a while. You'll struggle for a time until you assemble the personalities playstyle and roster to suit the new direction. The probability is it will take a little time.

That being the case, you have to entrench and alter your expectations. Fixing my eye on a 2-3 year period before we're in the Finals has seemed unlikely. We're trying to change a franchise outlook, attitude, structure -- and change the outlook and perception not only of our own fanbase, but leaguewide: among players, agents, college kids, young talents in AAU ball. This will take more than a minute.

That doesn't make me restless, personally. I expect to be a fan of this team for a long while to come, and would count it a blessing if my squad won one or more Championships in something less than a lifetime. Forged a reputation as a persistent contender for yet another DC Dynasty team. Until then I'm happy as long as we're always looking to improve. Constant improvement is all you can ask. And from way down here there's a whole lot of up to climb.

I see no (obvious) immediate or short-term paths to sudden Championship contention. Opportunities will arise, improved scouting and metrics will uncover a few that would be otherwise overlooked. You can plan for some, others will develop quickly. You can lay a foundation to be able to take advantage of whatever arises. I understand the concept behind remaining lithe, flexible, economically fit in case the opportunity for a quick fix arises, sure, ain't nothing wrong with that. But there is never only one way to get there. Hell Gilbert's 22 million dollar expiring in year 4 may prove the clincher that nets a final piece.

Right now Cap Space is the watch word. Maybe in the near future a hard cap makes it even more sacred. Maybe, or, as was murmured, maybe the league wins non-guaranteed contracts. Or max salaries. Or an economic reset button that won't count against the cap. A neo-Houston rule. Or a host of other maybes. The CBA issues join a host of the usual unpredictables, never know what will happen. You have to expect though that teams who have players they like will find ways to keep those players. Nobody complains about the Larry Bird rule. I sincerely doubt teams will vote on a rule that prevents them from contending, locks them into an untenable situation. Right now the Wiz are one of a very few teams with significant space. I'd doubt the rest of the league wotes to paint themselves into a corner, not when they will need flexibility to develop some answer to the rise of the superteams.

But opportunities always arise. At some point Sacramento gets tired of Cousins' act and he forces a trade to play with his college point guard. Misunderstood. Angry. At some point Portland decides to cut bait on Greg Oden, nagging injuries having stalled his development beyond their patience and he lands here in a multi-player deal, then under the care of our new vanguard medical team undergoes a Ponce de Leon transformation and instantly realizes the advanced and mature game that was suggested by his 40-year-old visage. Proves remarkable durable. Yay, wizards win. Occasionally your Rasheed, your KG, your Pau, your Shaq switch teams and bring a contender a ring and a trophy. It happens. And in the past it hasn't even taken all that much to make it work.

Those are all in the 'never know' category. What we do know is what we have right now. Given what we've got, and casting our eye ahead, what is our ceiling. How high, how soon. How.

I'll play with this a little bit in this thread, upcoming. Sketch out a few ways I could see it developing.

[Kanyewest]

Within that next signing period, about the best I could come up with was the dual acquisitions of Anderson Varejao and Thaddeus Young while renouncing all our restricted guys (and even that would require getting creative, possibly sacrificing some assets and having a higher end sort of cap figure to work with).

McGee/Varejao
Blatche/Varejao
T.Young/Booker?
Arenas/Hiney
Wall/Hiney

It's not a bad squad (so long as Thaddeus can D-up like you'd want), but they'll get cooked by the top dogs. Needless to say I would have liked it a lot better had the free agent signings ended up with greater parity.

This plan is WAY too abstract for me mostly because we have no idea how good our current squad is. If I had to guess, I still think this team is a lottery team but there are enough x factors (Arenas, Blatche, McGee, Young) that this team could make the playoffs. Maybe the Wizards actually enjoy a season of good health. And who knows if the Wizards got a steal with the 17th pick. Seraphin in the highlights looks like a stud and could be that rebounding big, which makes acquiring Varejao pointless IMO.

But since John Wall hasn't played a NBA game (again summer league doesn't count), then we really don't know if we have a star, a top 5 player, a really good player like Rajon Rondo, or a bust (ie injury prone like Greg Oden). Remember draft picks don't always pan out the way you would like them to, for better or worse. If John Wall is turnover prone like his first two summer leagues and isn't knocking down his jumper at a high enough rate like in the last two summer league games, then the Wizards could be again one of the worst teams in the league this coming season. Of course, I'm more inclined to believe that Wall will be very good right off the bat but if someone like Kwame Brown can dominate in summer league, one has to be wary.

If this team is the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference 3 years down the line, I'll take it. Someone like LeBron James didn't make the playoffs until his 3rd year in the league, and probably shouldn't have gotten past the first round if not for some horrific officiating. The same is true of Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, who only made it as an 8th seed. Neither tanked after they drafted their superstar, and both did a horrible job in drafting the years they were in the lottery (Luke Jackson (#11) and Fran Vasquez (#10). Yet both teams still managed to make it to the NBA Finals within 5 years after they were drafted. The common thread of course is that LeBron and Dwight were elite players, can John Wall be that guy?

The Wizards could make a deep playoff run, but we'd be kidding ourselves that the Wizards would emerge as legit contenders, 2-3 years down the line. First they have to earn their stripes and get some of that playoff experience. Heck the guys that they draft in 2011 and 2012 still have to develop.

So the Wizards won't be able to make financial commitments 3 years down the line if they hold on to Arenas? That's a good thing in my estimation. Look what Cleveland did after Lebron's 2nd year when they overpaid to get Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones. I believe Orlando gave more money than to Rashard Lewis than Cleveland did to Hughes, Marshall, and Jones. Chicago just gave a max contract to Carlos Boozer and a significant amount money to Korver which Chicago could easily regret 2-3 years later.

If the Wizards truly want to follow OKC building plan, it will be by looking at developing help in your organization than looking outside of it. Drafting guys that fit your system rather than overpaying for them in free agency. Using patience rather than trying to make the big splash. And the Wizards can find potential building blocks with later picks in the draft- it doesn't hurt to have a GM who has 2 of the better 2nd round picks this past decade in Michael Redd and Andray Blatche. Even someone like McGee was found with the 18th pick.

I would be shocked if the Wizards were considered contenders 3 years down the line. First the Wizards have to learn how to exceed expectations- making the playoffs this season would be a start. One step at a time, building a championship team isn't easy.

[doclinkin]

In Gilbert (since he seems to be the main point of contention) yes we have a high pricetag player with suppressed trade value. However, in that same player we have a powerful talent who made his best reputation by proving doubters wrong. A highly talented player with a ton to prove and the work ethic to overachieve (relative to public expectations). That's not a bad thing. Here is a man dedicated to destroying doubt: returning rested, restless, eager, possibly rejuvenated, possibly rehabilitated, chastened, certainly shown a stark lesson that foolishness can cost you a great deal. My hunch is he returns with a competitive desperation to asphyxiate his naysayers, if not win back converts. I suspect he'll play well.

Personally I relish the opportunity to test him against the rookie Wall. In the past when Gilbert was on his game, at his peak, it seemed like he never really paid much attention to defense because quite frankly he'd never really seen it matter against him. No one could stop him. Now, a fraction less speedy, he'll match up in practice a against a kid who can practically backpedal fast enough to keep up with his sprint. He'll experience the savvy and cunning of Kirk Hinrich (who defensed him about as well as anybody) on a daily basis.

And more importantly our young hypertalent is cooking in the same crucible. To me the benefits are incalculable here. MJ developed his game in part by testing himself on a daily basis against one of the best defenders of all time. MJs defense itself improved steeply after he was paired with Pippen. You develop a culture behind the scenes, practice how you play, go hard at all times, and suddenly the dross and impurities are burned away. The competitive joy, something between rage and laughter is all you need. And if and when you taste a little success, in the post season especially, the first time you stun and startle a better opponent, you are hooked for life. Nothing less than perfection will suffice. It makes the hard work worth it.

Aside from this specific, what generally is needed to win?

Attack Guards: The no-hand-check era and the open paint below the basket have allowed the rise of the attack guard. Ballhandling slashers make the late-game easier by forcing fouls on defenders and allowing you to stop the clock to make up ground any time you need to. If they can also shoot from outside, gravy, but the truth is they are your primary interior attack now, able to get to the basket at will for an easy deuce. And one. Heady leaders with a strong sense of timing and allcourt team vision are a necessity, if they are clogging your path then somebody is open: hit 'em quick. Rondo, Billups for instance.

Dynamic Four: Your lynchpin Bigs are no longer burly monsters who merely stand below the hoop pawing at balls and crushing players to the ground like Kong vs the bi-planes. Kong is dead. No your multi-talent midrange Big is now the order of the day. You need every tool: low-post, back-to-basket, handle, range. Champions KG, Pau, Rasheed, Timmy -- all have range and a face-up game.

True Bigs: You do need a burly sturdy rebounder who can finish down low, but he needn't be the focal point. Zone defenses have de-emphasized this player as well, he needs to be nimble enough in the 3-second do-si-do to not get caught with techs, but thuggish enough to hold his ground and make lesser players think. Varejao, Perkins, Ben Wallace, these players are enough. They have to be both nimble and intimidating.

Stretch Three: Since your primary interior attack comes from the outside in, it helps to be able to reliably clear the paint by drawing big interior defenders outside to challenge your shot. Conversely and more importantly you need deft and long defenders who can act as a one-man zone. Trap on the outside then recover to guard an area. If you get a player who can captain your defense and guard 3-4 positions reliably then you have a chance to be good. Tayshaun, Kobe, KG, Ron-ron. These are rare and precious assets. You'll put up with Artest's insanity if he can guard 4 positions on the floor.

There are a ton of unknowns in our personnel. But if all develops to optimal potential, well we'd be able to approximate many of these roles.

'Attack guards' is sewn up in spades. John Wall, Gilbert. Can't ask for better than that.

'Dynamic Four'. Blatche posting 22 per game on solid shooting #'s as the sole focal point of the offense demonstrates he's got a good foundation. I'm not sure why many discount that he can further improve. His numbers show a rise every year, and he's proven that the more he is relied on the better he plays.

'True Bigs'. I'm most excited to watch Kevin Seraphin develop. He's got the huge soft hands that the best rebounders are born with. Solid frame that will develop additional muscle just by smelling the weight room. And he's got the nimble feet and proper attitude you need: wants to put a body on somebody, loves to play Defense.

JaVale is a different breed of cat. I suspect he'll start to bully players a little when he starts putting on muscle, maybe he'll learn to enjoy it. He still perceives himself as the Multi-Four, and shows flashes of being able to do it. Well shoot, we used to complain about Dray trying to do too much. Could be McGee is what he thinks he is. Or will be. No question he has the physical potential to be a true game changer. He and Dray can surely fill a ton of space if we can play them together as well as interchangably.

Stretch Three is a question mark still. If Josh Howard were healthy and signed reasonably well, he's shown potential as a defender and aggressive scorer, both. I loved his evident passion when he landed here, though how much of that was a contract audition I dunno. Right now we lack aggressive passion here. Nick Young has length, he defends well (other than rebounding) and has range (even though he has to dribble to set up his shot, and fades even on a standstill jumper thus never collects and-one chances). Dray has shown some range, but not quite the quicks to D-up on the faster exterior attackers. But, eh, never know. At the least, in Thornton and Booker we have sturdy types who can challenge the Strong Threes like LeBJ. Let them know you're there.

It takes time, chemistry, attitude, development, etc. But my quick read is that, potentially, much of the talent is already here. I'm interested to see how it all develops.

[Hoopalotta]

Kanye,

The thing to keep in mind is this: The problem those acquisitions (Thaddeus & Varejao) attempts to address is that right after the lockout, we're looking at the last whiff of cap space powder we're going to have for years if we're trying to build a contender around Gil. Getting good value is a secondary consideration there as we can't carry the cap space over to the next year with extensions on Blatche/McGee.

(as noted, not everyone who doesn't want to trade Gil wants to build a contender around him in the long term, so this is only in context of the above "if")

So the above roster I laid out with Varejao and T. Young was the kind of thing we'd do with cap space after the lockout if we're building a contender around Gil, not as all in moves to be made in the next six weeks to take into the 2010 season. The above is the basic framework of a potential 2011 roster that attempts to maximize competitiveness. It is in that context that Varejao supersedes Seraphin.

The only way I can see that we could extend that 'flexibility window' with Gil here for the whole of his contract is to use that cap space to absorb expiring contracts and continue flipping them until we finally arrive at some sort of a core piece. But I see that as an overly complicated self defeating arrangement that's in place just for the sake of working around Gil's contract.

However, I am the first to call the above squad I laid out as being a flawed premise in the current environment. I am the first to say it's a bad idea.

As to your point on building steadily and internally rather than adding expensive external pieces, that's exactly what I'd like to do, but I'd rather go all in with it over hedging things and attempting to 'rebuild' with mid round picks and cap exceptions. As of this moment, I consider our strategy to be "we're rebuilding, but...." which - if stuck with - is going to push us towards retooling over rebuilding for all the reasons just mentioned.

I too would prefer to rebuild and wait on Seraphin to where Varejao isn't even someone we'd think about, but if we're talking about championships within Gil's window, we're just about forced to make a decisive move right after the lockout.

[pancakes3]

Aside from this specific, what generally is needed to win?

Attack Guards
Dynamic Four
True Bigs
Stretch Three

i think the answer doesn't break down into such intricate formulas. the key to a championship is just as it always has been - talent. A copycat mentality merely spawns weak imitations. "system coaches" are coaches without imagination and GMs that draft for a system do their organizations a massive disservice.

i'll cite a well known anecdote where before the '84 draft (at an olympic practice), Bobby Knight told Stu Inman of the blazers how lucky he was that the blazers have a shot at drafting MJ. Inman said something like - yeah, but we need a big man. Knight countered by telling him to draft Jordan and play him at C and he'll lead the league in scoring, he's that good.

The point is twofold - you win with talent, and you get talent through the draft (and sheer luck plays a factor). keeping that talent is the GM's job, and using that talent is the coach's job. Gilbert screwed up in not convincing Lebron to stay, Riley won by wooing Wade as a means to get at Lebron. That's when GMing matters - not flipping draft picks to move up into the late lotto. Having an eye for talent and picking diamonds in the rough (manu, arenas, etc.) and turning a #5 pick into two unsigned FA (still bitter) are really piddling deals. General Management of your superstar is where the bread is buttered.

How do WE win a championship? We need talent. I'm seeing a lot of talk about swapping Hinrich + future picks for a disgruntled star. Do we have the ball for that? I remember posting trade proposals 2-3 years back for Zach Randolph, Elton Brand, and even an old Webber and getting CRUCIFIED. inevitably buzzwords like "cancer" and "fit" would pop up. Heck, there were rumblings about Evans, Cousins, and Aminu and their "character issues", none of which have even manifested itself (not in a sprewellian manner anyway).

Anyway, the talent we've got now is clearly in the backcourt. Blatche may have moves but he's no TALENT. sure he can drop 20/8 but then again so can David West. David West doesn't win championships. I'm not even sure guys like Arenas can win championships. We're hitching our hopes that a guy like Wall can turn Isiah on us and win us some championships.

Back to doc's point. yes ideally with Wall as our "guy to build around" we should go after shooters at the 2 and 3, and bulldogs at the 4/5. however, if a playmaker like Iggy becomes available and we have a shot at him, i say we pull the trigger even if he's not a deadeye 3 point shooter.

championship is just not in the cards for us, i fear. in the NBA it seems like you need an all-nba 1st teamer and an allstar sidekick to even have a shot. we've got a darkhorse 3rd teamer and a ROY and i don't see that situation changing anytime soon.

[Hoopalotta]

Ok, I posted this in the Arenas-Carter thread, but it occurred to me that it fit in better here....

barelyawake, now that your here, I'm just curious who you would consider to be a "gamechanging big" out of the current players in the NBA.

See, this is a point worth stressing. When you lay it out going from team to team, the current crop of young up and coming bigs in the NBA just isn't that great.

The Oden and Bynum injuries knock a couple of could have been championship caliber bigs downward into total uncertainty (some might argue Bynum was never there, but I think in a "what if?" universe, a healthy Bynum would have been really nice as a mobile two way power-player)

Being slightly arbitrary in our definitions and not in any exact order other than by tier, you've got something like:

Howard (way above everyone else. Way)
-
Bogut (very, very underrated on both ends, but has had scores of injuries - including with his back)
-
Bosh (I barely put him on the list after already playing 7 years; an enigma; Olympic Bosh? Durability?)
M. Gasol (Should he be lower? Excellent offensive player, but limited athletically as a lane patrolman)
Griffin (Huge talent, but more of a scorer and boarder than presence)
Cousins (Lots of talent, lots of questions. This might be way too high)
-
Oden (as special as Howard, but how do you measure him now? Just horrible injuries)
Bynum (game changer or bad contract? Awful injuries)
B. Lopez (more of a scorer than anything; very skilled, athletic limitations; 12 wins?)
Noah - (excellent presence, tenacious, can't score, but does most everything else)
A. Randolph - (Huge talent, very raw, no idea what to say, he's here on potential)
Horford - (Nice player, limited as a scorer, but tough)
Splitter - (entirely speculative to put him here, but a good guess; maybe not much on the boards?)
R. Lopez - (I wouldn't put him here yet, but its not a huge stretch - Probably stronger/meaner than Brook)
-
Start inserting a bunch of guys here - Perkins, Monroe and so on.....

According to DX, the top of the draft next year will add:
Perry Jones - (is he an actual big? Draft.net has him as a small forward - no idea, I've seen him dunk)
Valanciunas - (You'll be shocked to hear that I know absolutely nothing about him)
Sullinger - (just looking at his body in the picture, I'm not excited defensively - 6'8" 250? A scorer?)
Motiejunas - (the Lithuanian Yi)
Let's just stop right there.....

So, I very specifically left Dray and McGee off that list as everyone can decide where they stack up. They're probably vying for inclusion somewhere in that 4th tier either on production or potential, but considering the 3rd tier isn't that much better and the 1st and 2nd tiers are made up of just one guy each, this shouldn't be seen as a bad situation (or even as an absolute ceiling).

Furthermore, considering that we're going back through so many years of the draft with just this rather middling list coming up, we can't just assume that a young David Robinson is going to pop onto the scene in the 2013 draft.

Will the next 5-8 years of champions be built on real honest to goodness game changing two way bigs or will more Kendrick Perkins/Ben Wallace types work their way in there?

[nate33]

barelyawake, now that your here, I'm just curious who you would consider to be a "gamechanging big" out of the current players in the NBA.

See, this is a point worth stressing (probably would be better in another thread, but what the heck). When you lay it out going from team to team, the current crop of young up and coming bigs in the NBA just isn't that great.

The Oden and Bynum injuries knock a couple of could have been championship caliber bigs downward into total uncertainty (some might argue Bynum was never there, but I think in a "what if?" universe, a healthy Bynum would have been really nice as a mobile two way power-player)

Being slightly arbitrary in our definitions and not in any exact order other than by tier, you've got something like:

Howard (way above everyone else. Way)
-
Bogut (very, very underrated on both ends, but has had scores of injuries - including with his back)
-
Bosh (I barely put him on the list after already playing 7 years; an enigma; Olympic Bosh? Durability?)
M. Gasol (Should he be lower? Excellent offensive player, but limited athletically as a lane patrolman)
Griffin (Huge talent, but more of a scorer and boarder than presence)
Cousins (Lots of talent, lots of questions. This might be way too high)
-
Oden (as special as Howard, but how do you measure him now? Just horrible injuries)
Bynum (game changer or bad contract? Awful injuries)
B. Lopez (more of a scorer than anything; very skilled, athletic limitations; 12 wins?)
Noah - (excellent presence, tenacious, can't score, but does most everything else)
A. Randolph - (Huge talent, very raw, no idea what to say, he's here on potential)
Horford - (Nice player, limited as a scorer, but tough)
Splitter - (entirely speculative to put him here, but a good guess; maybe not much on the boards?)
R. Lopez - (I wouldn't put him here yet, but its not a huge stretch - Probably stronger/meaner than Brook)
-
Start inserting a bunch of guys here - Perkins, Monroe and so on.....

According to DX, the top of the draft next year will add:
Perry Jones - (is he an actual big? Draft.net has him as a small forward - no idea, I've seen him dunk)
Valanciunas - (You'll be shocked to hear that I know absolutely nothing about him)
Sullinger - (just looking at his body in the picture, I'm not excited defensively - 6'8" 250? A scorer?)
Motiejunas - (the Lithuanian Yi)
Let's just stop right there.....

So, I very specifically left Dray and McGee off that list as everyone can decide where they stack up. They're probably vying for inclusion somewhere in that 4th tier either on production or potential, but considering the 3rd tier isn't that much better and the 1st and 2nd tiers are made up of just one guy each, this shouldn't be seen as a bad situation (or even as an absolute ceiling).

Furthermore, considering that we're going back through so many years of the draft with just this rather middling list coming up, we can't just assume that a young David Robinson is going to pop onto the scene in the 2013 draft.

Will the next 5-8 years of champions be built on real honest to goodness game changing two way bigs or will more Kendrick Perkins/Ben Wallace types work their way in there?

Well, you picked up on the point I was getting to. You have Howard and Bogut as the only two unquestioned game-changing bigs. If one wants to classify your "3rd tier" of players as game changers, then we can add Bosh and Pau Gasol to the list. (M.Gasol belongs on the next tier and Cousins and Griffin are pure speculation at this point.)

That's it: four game changing bigs.

If one wants to classify the next tier of guys (Oden, Bynum, Noah, Randolph, B.Lopez, Horford, R.Lopez, Splitter, M.Gasol) as game-changers, then I say that Blatche is a game changer too. He's as good as those guys - or at least he will be if he can maintain his post-trade production for an entire season.

[Hoopalotta]

The third tier I laid out is definitely a bit dicey, yes. Even I'm not particularly convinced by it.

The 4th tier would probably have guys jostling in an out on a year by year basis (for example, I took Perkins out based on his injury and then you've got guys like Hibbert or Ibaka trying to get in).

[gesa2]

Hoopa, I get your arguments for trading Gil, along with everybody elses on that side of the equation. And I'll be ok with a Gil trade if it happens as part of a sensible plan. Really, I'll trust that Leonsis and EG HAVE a plan, while 2 years ago I would have doubted the organization.

I don't see the future as black and white with GIl as much as you do, and still argue that we'll have more options than you predict if we keep Gil. Dallas has been a luxury tax team for a decade, and acquires players, changes their roster every year. Cap space isn't the only way to improve your team.

But again, so long as we have John Wall, and Leonsis manages the Wizards as he has the Caps, I'll be optimistic and open to different plans. Gil isn't the biggest piece of teh puzzle anymore, and that's a great sign by itself.

[doclinkin]

Aside from this specific, what generally is needed to win?

Attack Guards
Dynamic Four
True Bigs
Stretch Three

i think the answer doesn't break down into such intricate formulas.

Intricacy or not the question is merely: what trends do we see under the current rule-system? What similarities do we see in championship teams over the past decade or so. I'm way on-board with the 'best talent available argument', I'm not stuck on any particular formula, but it's important to recognize how the arms race changes from moment to moment.

Before the rules re-set, basically if you didn't have Shaq or a counter-Shaq you were in trouble. Bigs were allowed to clog the paint and maul opponents on entry. The alternative was to clear out all your players to one side and let your Allen Iverson go one-on-one against his match-up.

The league decided that was boring and wanted to allow for a more wide open game. They allowed Zone defenses cleared out the cylinder below the bucket and placed stronger emphasis on hand checking. Suddenly you had a more college-esque game -- in the NCCA tourney it had long been a truism that you won with superior guard play, the league was trying to recreate this as David Stern recognized that fans tended to have sympathy for the little guy. The longstanding cliche/truism was that 'Nobody loves a giant' (with Shaq as the possible exception. And Georghe Muresan because he's just so delightfully goofy. 'I stupid!').

The Wiz were accidental beneficiaries of the change, as 'combo guard' instantly became a desired position, not an epithet. (We had two, and a 'system' unafraid to let them dominate the possessions). No position benefited more, your most reliable source of free throws and interior scoring suddenly was no longer the pound-it-inside Big, but instead your squirrelly little guy with the yo-yo dribble, unafraid to take it inside and bounce off the chest of the shot-blocker. If you take a look at the list of all-time shotblockers some daunting and notable names occur at the top of the list, but you will scroll down a loooong way before you come to any current-era players.

Finesse fours like Jamison suddenly were an asset as well, since they provided room underneath for your smalls to dance into. Then counter-trends developed. (Zone-capable defenders who can defense the perimeter and drop back to fill lanes, etc. etc. as detailed above). None of this is meant to be formulaic, simply a recognition of what the current trends are in the rochambeau of counters and counter-counters in modern era ball.

If the MEami experiment works there will probably be a reshuffling of teams trying to match up. Other team-shaping trends at work right now:

Counter-LeBJ methodology (strong smalls and long fours who can intimidate and force him to work on his perimeter game and pass rather than put his head down and bull into the lane. A little bit of thuggery is needed to remind him that he is at heart a coward. Ferdinand the bull).

Dwight antidotes. Strong fours and fives who can hold their ground and make him work a little, though the easiest method is simply to deny the entry pass since he's a ball-dependent player. IF you have a good zone and enough length you can starve him of touches.

I suspect if our backcourt has success we may see a shuffling of a few teams looking for counters to the speed we can field, that no one else can match. That's our primary advantage right now. Which, to maximize our advantage, puts a premium on players who can force misses and rebound. We're missing that player right now, a dominant defensive boardsman, especially one who can pass out from pressure, or otherwise the presence of prodigious defensive players at all supplementary positions.

We're not so far away though, for all that. All we need is Bill Russell in his prime. That's all. Then BOOM: a golden dynasty in chinatown.

[Hoopalotta]

I think the "attack guard", "true bigs" and so on formula is spot on for the current NBA. It's basically what I had in mind with that Thaddeus-Varajao model I laid out.

[Hoopalotta]

Hoopa, I get your arguments for trading Gil, along with everybody elses on that side of the equation. And I'll be ok with a Gil trade if it happens as part of a sensible plan. Really, I'll trust that Leonsis and EG HAVE a plan, while 2 years ago I would have doubted the organization.

I don't see the future as black and white with GIl as much as you do, and still argue that we'll have more options than you predict if we keep Gil. Dallas has been a luxury tax team for a decade, and acquires players, changes their roster every year. Cap space isn't the only way to improve your team.

But again, so long as we have John Wall, and Leonsis manages the Wizards as he has the Caps, I'll be optimistic and open to different plans. Gil isn't the biggest piece of teh puzzle anymore, and that's a great sign by itself.

Dallas is kind of a curious case in terms of all those contracts they have bobbing around and I would imagine if we ran a scheme figuring out where they all came from we could back date it to Jamal Mashburn, Roy Tarpley and Methuselah. They very rarely allow guys to just expire, instead juggling contracts and huge tax payments in pursuit of "the chip formula".

We could commit to juggling an expiring, but it would make it more difficult to commit that post lockout cap space to a core piece unless we can cash it in early. I would see that as being a very deliberate move to maintain flexibility, but if Gil's here to up our competitiveness in the short term, its a precarious compromise.

I like shades of grey in life, but fundamentally, I like the words "Compete" or "Rebuild" in NBA basketball. I like waxing on and waxing off at a secure estate or delivering the crane kick. I'm less excited about a multi word explanation like "we're rebuilding, but.....".

Edit --> ack, a clerical errors on this tiny lil' mac keyboard/screen.

[gesa2]

Roy Tarpley, now there was a "2 way big"! Talk about unfulfilled potential. Hopefully they won't be putting him and Cousins in the same sentence years from now.

And I don't really offer Dallas as the model to build a contender. San Antonio would be a better choice, but that entails drafting all stars repeatedly at the end of the first round.

[pancakes3]

well that's just the thing, isn't it? counter-LebJs and Dwight antidotes. to be contenders, you need someone who other people gameplan for instead of the ones doing the gameplanning. we can try and sign all the kendrick perkins's and anderson verajao's we want but the bottom line is... like you said, doc, we need Bill Russell on this team. depressing to think about. i don't mean to go all "ji" on us but i think the c-word is a pipe dream, definition of. all we can cross our fingers for in the foreseeable future is that the 'Zards play some entertaining basketball and some thrilling 7 game series's against the heat. i almost WANT us to be locked into mediocrity just so we can get as many cracks as possible vs the Heat in the playoffs.

[doclinkin]

well that's just the thing, isn't it? counter-LebJs and Dwight antidotes. to be contenders, you need someone who other people gameplan for instead of the ones doing the gameplanning. we can try and sign all the kendrick perkins's and anderson verajao's we want but the bottom line is... like you said, doc, we need Bill Russell on this team. depressing to think about. i don't mean to go all "ji" on us but i think the c-word is a pipe dream, definition of. all we can cross our fingers for in the foreseeable future is that the 'Zards play some entertaining basketball and some thrilling 7 game series's against the heat. i almost WANT us to be locked into mediocrity just so we can get as many cracks as possible vs the Heat in the playoffs.

Has LeBJ or Dwight yet won? The answer is no. Counters exist for what they do (on individual talent alone).

I think Gil + Wall could prove a similarly difficult problem for teams to solve -- while the Wiz are on offense. That's a potentially game-changing configuration, especially considering the up-tempo long talent possible at every other position.

(On defense, we still don't have the interior attitude and cunning and skill and muscle and rebounding to really compete at the upper echelon. Which is how you solve the problem. Go right at the two and hope to wear them down with fouls. If we had an intimidating and reliable and smart thug inside I think we'd be fine even on the perimeter, even with whomever Gil is s'posed to be guarding. Leastways Flip's scheme ought to work pretty well).

What I sketched out is simply what passes for a balanced team nowadays, the sort that wins championships and is flexible enough to deal with any eventuality. I agree with you about wanting to match against MEami. I want to develop a competitive rivalry against the best, to test out our shortfalls and shore them up. We're not close yet, but I wouldn't rule the team out based on upside. We have players with potential the rest all comes from developing that potential. Since development is the key, then I'm looking for every avenue that improves this team's learning curve.

If we add other young talents along the way, with improved scouting and analysis, and outlook, and added picks or whatever, then great. But I don't think we can entirely rule out this teams chances of success. I think we're in pretty good position to improve a significant degree.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Where I'm at:

Rebuilding is rebuilding. When you hire a new coach with a radically different philosophy after 7 years in a particular system, you have to shrug and assume you'll need to workshop and woodshed for a while. You'll struggle for a time until you assemble the personalities playstyle and roster to suit the new direction. The probability is it will take a little time.

That being the case, you have to entrench and alter your expectations. Fixing my eye on a 2-3 year period before we're in the Finals has seemed unlikely. We're trying to change a franchise outlook, attitude, structure -- and change the outlook and perception not only of our own fanbase, but leaguewide: among players, agents, college kids, young talents in AAU ball. This will take more than a minute.

That doesn't make me restless, personally. I expect to be a fan of this team for a long while to come, and would count it a blessing if my squad won one or more Championships in something less than a lifetime. Forged a reputation as a persistent contender for yet another DC Dynasty team. Until then I'm happy as long as we're always looking to improve. Constant improvement is all you can ask. And from way down here there's a whole lot of up to climb.

I see no (obvious) immediate or short-term paths to sudden Championship contention. Opportunities will arise, improved scouting and metrics will uncover a few that would be otherwise overlooked. You can plan for some, others will develop quickly. You can lay a foundation to be able to take advantage of whatever arises. I understand the concept behind remaining lithe, flexible, economically fit in case the opportunity for a quick fix arises, sure, ain't nothing wrong with that. But there is never only one way to get there. Hell Gilbert's 22 million dollar expiring in year 4 may prove the clincher that nets a final piece.

Right now Cap Space is the watch word. Maybe in the near future a hard cap makes it even more sacred. Maybe, or, as was murmured, maybe the league wins non-guaranteed contracts. Or max salaries. Or an economic reset button that won't count against the cap. A neo-Houston rule. Or a host of other maybes. The CBA issues join a host of the usual unpredictables, never know what will happen. You have to expect though that teams who have players they like will find ways to keep those players. Nobody complains about the Larry Bird rule. I sincerely doubt teams will vote on a rule that prevents them from contending, locks them into an untenable situation. Right now the Wiz are one of a very few teams with significant space. I'd doubt the rest of the league wotes to paint themselves into a corner, not when they will need flexibility to develop some answer to the rise of the superteams.

But opportunities always arise. At some point Sacramento gets tired of Cousins' act and he forces a trade to play with his college point guard. Misunderstood. Angry. At some point Portland decides to cut bait on Greg Oden, nagging injuries having stalled his development beyond their patience and he lands here in a multi-player deal, then under the care of our new vanguard medical team undergoes a Ponce de Leon transformation and instantly realizes the advanced and mature game that was suggested by his 40-year-old visage. Proves remarkable durable. Yay, wizards win. Occasionally your Rasheed, your KG, your Pau, your Shaq switch teams and bring a contender a ring and a trophy. It happens. And in the past it hasn't even taken all that much to make it work.

Those are all in the 'never know' category. What we do know is what we have right now. Given what we've got, and casting our eye ahead, what is our ceiling. How high, how soon. How.

I'll play with this a little bit in this thread, upcoming. Sketch out a few ways I could see it developing.

The quickest route to a title would be with a frontcourt of Cousins and Oden, with Blatche off the bench for both. Add a tough, scoring four like Richard Hendrix on the cheap. Use McGee to get Oden. I really like Javale, but defense wins. Oden's a real C that can play defense very, very well.

If you can't go that route due to it being unrealistic to acquire Oden or Cousins, a simpler, maybe better plan would be to target Marc Gasol. I think Gasol at C and Javale at PF, with Blatche backing both is a really potent trio of bigs. Gasol as noted earlier is a very efficient offensive player. I believe Javale will also become a very efficient offensive player. Field goal percentage differential matters. I know McGee gives up a bunch but at PF I think he'd cause a huge matchup problem if Wall is running PG, and Gasol at C. McGee would have dunks at will. Gasol and McGee/Blatche would need a real animal at SF. I would try to go after Danny Granger at SF. Hits the three and can be a go to scorer, while he plays decent defense. I would trade Gil for a shot at Granger. Wall/Young/Granger/McGee/Gasol with Hinrich and Blatche would contend for a ring IMO.

I think having McGee at 4 with a big C, and with a two-way threat at SF is what the Wizards really need.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hoopalotta and gesa2, Roy Tarpley is the best Demarcus Cousins comparison yet, IMO. That's exactly how Cousins plays. Not a leaper, but a big, strong, multiskilled PF/C. Great rebounder and shooter with very good handles.

[Ruzious]

Oden and Duhwhite can both be UFA's in the summer o 2012. If you can get 1 of them healthy plus a Thad Young (or someone like him) minus Gil and Hiney and Yi plus 2 more years of draft picks and what the Wiz have already... that's a championship contender that can beat Miami. The picks don't even have to be exceptional - just solid. Is it really that far-fetched to think we have a decent shot at getting one of Oden or Howard?

[Ruzious]

Hoopalotta and gesa2, Roy Tarpley is the best Demarcus Cousins comparison yet, IMO. That's exactly how Cousins plays. Not a leaper, but a big, strong, multiskilled PF/C. Great rebounder and shooter with very good handles.

I still like my Bob Lanier type comparison, because he had that same thick body type to go with the skills. Tarpley was more sleek.