Shaun Marcum Traded to the Brewers for Brett Lawrie

[Randle McMurphy]

Well, if you're not being cynical, you're being a bit illogical. There's no reason to think this is about money. I mean, this is an organization that about a year ago shelled out 10 million dollars (IIRC) just to get someone to take the best pitcher in baseball off their hands.

Well if they trade for Greinke after this and sign him to an extension, it's certainly going to look like it was about the money. Would remind me a lot of what the Phillies did last season with Lee.

Actually it would look more like getting Greinke without depleting the top-end of our prospect pool.

That sounds like how the Phillies justified it last year. Almost the same words, too.

[rdtx2005]

i dunno about Greinke... seems like that cy young year was a blip

[youreachiteach]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

[The Flying Gent]

That sounds like how the Phillies justified it last year. Almost the same words, too.

Phillies don't have the pitching depth we do (or didn't at the time, anyway). If they do manage to turn this into a basically Marcum for Greinke trade, i don't know how you could possibly be unhappy with that. Especially when it's almost certainly a fact that it's not about money.

Greinke is a true ace and slotting him in front of Romero, Morrow, Cecil and the other interesting options we would have for the 5th starter is a lot better then having those guys with Marcum thrown in there somewhere.

[Duffman100]

We don't even know what the deal is yet!

[The Flying Gent]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

So basically, if the deal works out, we win it, but if it doesn't, we lose?

Gotcha.

[-MetA4-]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

You people are high.

What does acquiring Greinke have to do with this deal? We are selling high on the oldest and least controllable pitcher in the rotation. There doesn't have to be any follow-up trades for this trade to make sense; if the idea is that the package we are getting back is too good to pass up then that is that.

[youreachiteach]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

So basically, if the deal works out, we win it, but if it doesn't, we lose?

Gotcha.

Sorry. What I mean to say is, I find it unilkely that any of these things are going to come true, in comparison with what Marcum would already give you.

[darth_federer]

Lawrie's sister...

[SharoneWright]

Lawrie's sister...

Do you come with the car?

[Randle McMurphy]

That sounds like how the Phillies justified it last year. Almost the same words, too.

Phillies don't have the pitching depth we do (or didn't at the time, anyway). If they do manage to turn this into a basically Marcum for Greinke trade, i don't know how you could possibly be unhappy with that. Especially when it's almost certainly a fact that it's not about money.

Greinke is a true ace and slotting him in front of Romero, Morrow, Cecil and the other interesting options we would have for the 5th starter is a lot better then having those guys with Marcum thrown in there somewhere.

Greinke isn't as much of an upgrade on Marcum as you think, IMO.

[dagger]

Isn't Marcum a FA after this season anyway? And he'd probably command a lot more than we'd want to offer, considering we want to have Romero, Morrow, and Cecil as the real long term fixtures in the rotation.

I believe that Marcum has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.


And with regards to what I said about his mechanics twirly, Marcum scap-loads like a motherf*cker. He already had TJ surgery, and some (read: mostly myself) worry that he's going to torch his labrum at some point.

Well, if we're going to base a players value on past TJ surgery we better get rid of Drabek ASAP.

[The Flying Gent]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

You people are high.

What does acquiring Greinke have to do with this deal? We are selling high on the oldest and least controllable pitcher in the rotation. There doesn't have to be any follow-up trades for this trade to make sense; if the idea is that the package we are getting back is too good to pass up then that is that.

This is basically how i feel. The Greinke stuff was just a knee-jerk reaction to the shocking news (but not really surprising, just caught me off guard).

[SharoneWright]

Its only Lawrie according to MLBTR.

[Brinbe]

Lawrie's sister...

Do you come with the car?

I thought the exact same thing when I saw that post.

[youreachiteach]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

You people are high.

What does acquiring Greinke have to do with this deal? We are selling high on the oldest and least controllable pitcher in the rotation. There doesn't have to be any follow-up trades for this trade to make sense; if the idea is that the package we are getting back is too good to pass up then that is that.

This is basically how i feel. The Greinke stuff was just a knee-jerk reaction to the shocking news (but not really surprising, just caught me off guard).

Even leaving Greinke aside for a moment, this not a particularly shrewd move. Pitching talent, especially fairly cost effective pitching talent that would in all likelihood re-sign if we asked, is generally better regarded than talented prospects w/ no position. We're not talking about about Jesus Montero here.

The chance for this deal to blow up in our face is fairly high. I do n't think it's nearly the good risk you are assuming it to be. And by the way, 29 is NOT old for a finesse pitcher.

[Schad]

Well, if we're going to base a players value on past TJ surgery we better get rid of Drabek ASAP.

The Phillies organization overhauled his delivery post-TJ because they felt there was a significant risk that he'd ruin his arm if they didn't. Now, by all indications his delivery is fine. Marcum's is still pretty scary...he has a very pronounced 'inverted W' brought on by the way he scap-loads.

[dagger]

Either 1 of these three things happen or we lost this deal badly.

1. Marcum gets hurt
2. Lawrie becomes a star
3. The jays pick up Greinke with the acquired prospects and he performs like an ace (not a guarantee, he is a risk as well, albeit with better potential and talent than Marcum)

You people are high.

What does acquiring Greinke have to do with this deal? We are selling high on the oldest and least controllable pitcher in the rotation. There doesn't have to be any follow-up trades for this trade to make sense; if the idea is that the package we are getting back is too good to pass up then that is that.

Wow. OLD? And least controllable.

I beginning to think some fans here should be on the Clippers board where contending is a dream for the 22nd century and you draw all kinds of comfort from draft picks.

What year exactly does AA plan to contend in - 2050? I'd like to be alive when it happens.

This is his second deal where he has pushed the future back to take a crapshoot at a better prospect.

I beginning to wonder if this is Rogers being cheaper than I thought, or AA not having big enough stones to pursue real bona fide major leaguers in trades or free agency. After all, if a prospect busts - especially someone in the low minors like Gose - the casual fan and even the McGowans of the media world will not remember and not hold him to account. But if you sign Crawford for a fortune - the way JP did with Vernon Wells and Alex Rios - and that goes south that becomes your signature deal, the one they all remember.

I'm not in a compete now mode but I'd like to see something done this off-season that keeps us at .500 rather than accumulate extra draft picks so the fanatics here can track what all those prospects had for breakfast.

[-MetA4-]

Greinke isn't as much of an upgrade on Marcum as you think, IMO.

Greinke's 2008 season was 1.4 WAR higher than Marcum this year. His "down year" this year was 1.7 WAR higher.

Greinke is outright an upgrade over Marcum.

[Hoopstarr]

Keith Law's blurb on Lawrie from his top 100 list in January

"Lawrie hit well in the Midwest League for a 19-year-old, and if he had a clear position he might have spent the second half in high-A. The Brewers did move him up two levels in mid-August, after which he scuffled. Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I've seen him overstride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He's an intense, aggressive, "one-speed" player who might benefit from dialing it down a notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder. He played all over as an amateur but settled on second in part because he thought he had a faster path to the majors there. There's still a realistic chance he'll have to move to first or an outfield corner, limiting his projected value. "