Free Agents Thread

[nate33]

PF: (I would try to trade Booker)
Jeff Adrien - Has made huge strides, a true post-banger not afraid of the post and can score around the basket.
Josh McRoberts - McBob is a dirty scrapper, he might be available for cheap

McBobs is the player you mentioned that I'd look at. Afterall, we need under-achieving bigs of all colors. Seriously, I thought he'd be a better pro than Hansbrough when they were freshmen at Duke and UNC. I don't know what's held him back - He's got nice size and strength, nice athleticism, nice touch with some range, he's an excellent passer, doesn't turn the ball over much, and can play with a mean streak. But some intangible is missing and dude always seemed to look unhappy. And sure enough - he's now seemingly in the Indy doghouse - losing out to his old nemesis - Hansbrough. He's still just 23ish. If the light goes on, he can certainly make the step up that Humphreys has made with NJ. He's got a halfway decent PER of 14 plus, so there's something to build on. I'd definitely make an effort to get him.

Yup. McBob seems like one of the best targets to fit our criteria. There's a couple of goon centers like Pryzbilla, but with us trying to groom Seraphin, I think I'd rather someone who has the skills to play some PF.

[Hoopalotta]

First of all, it should be said that we don't project to have any cap space unless we let Nick walk or trade Krik or Dray.

But the real questions for free agency in general this year are:

A) What are the CBA negotiations going to do to the landscape? Is there going to be an amnesty provision that could actually clear cap space? Most importantly: will there be an MLE?
B) How much money is going to be floating around with under the cap teams?

If both those issues converged just so (no MLE and no amnesty), the blokes of the 2011 free agent class could be in a bad way with an extreme buyers market taking shape. While guys like Marc Gasol and Melo would get paid anyway, there might not be enough money available to sign everyone for a "fair" price and the lower tier guys are going to be looking at signing cheap deals.

Actually, the one caveat is that if there's a lockout, a fair number of these guys might consider signing a one year offer overseas before the CBA thing is sorted out (my understanding is that anyone already under contract can't do that unless they decertify the players union). If would have been 2011 free agent went overseas, they'd probably then join the 2012 free agent class.

But, hypothetically, if most of these guys are on the market, there's no MLE and only about ten teams have money, there will be some real cheap contracts signed in late July by players who aren't as high profile/don't fill someone's need (there's a lot of wings available). I wouldn't even think about names, I'd just think about value based on the situation. I know Ted isn't a free agent guy, but those are potential targets of opportunity that you've got to look at. Those guys might also be respectable trade chips in-season where you send out three productive role players while taking back one non-productive expiring and draft picks.

Anyway, we'll have to pull a trade to really have much involvement in the 2011 free agent class. If there's no MLE and we don't move Kirk, we're probably talking minimum salary guys.

[nate33]

First of all, it should be said that we don't project to have any cap space unless we let Nick walk or trade Krik or Dray.

I'm not so sure that's true. Our payroll will be $44.5M plus Nick and our draft pick. Figure $5M and $2.5M respectively and our payroll is $52M. Current salary cap is $58M. It's tough to figure what the cap will be next year. If they harden the cap, it's tough to see them lowering it substantially at the same time. We could easily have $4-7M in cap room to play with. And if what you're saying about bargain deals is true, we'll be in pretty good shape. (That bargain contract theory will hopefully apply to Nick Young as well.)

[Hoopalotta]

Well, here's what I have:

Rashard: $21.13 million
K-Honey: $8 million
Blatche: $6.44 million
Wall: $5.53 million
Javale: $2.46 million
Seraphin: $1.68 million
Booker: $1.29 million

That's $46.5 million there.

Maybe we get the 5th pick, so that's $3.37 million, going by last year's numbers (loose estimate)

That's about $50 million, but with only 8 players, so we'll have a couple of minimum cap holds and Nick's $7.89 million dollar cap hold. If Nick were to resign really cheap, then we might have a few million, but it seems like there's a good chance that we're capped out.

Also, the bargain contract theory is also just a potential scenario: if a bunch of guys go to Europe early and the MLE sticks around, then it's going to be kaput right quick. A cap clearing Allan Houston rule would also kill it.

[nate33]

Well, here's what I have:

Rashard: $21.13 million
K-Honey: $8 million
Blatche: $6.44 million
Wall: $5.53 million
Javale: $2.46 million
Seraphin: $1.68 million
Booker: $1.29 million

That's $46.5 million there.

Maybe we get the 5th pick, so that's $3.37 million, going by last year's numbers (loose estimate)

That's about $50 million, but with only 8 players, so we'll have a couple of minimum cap holds and Nick's $7.89 million dollar cap hold. If Nick were to resign really cheap, then we might have a few million, but it seems like there's a good chance that we're capped out.

Also, the bargain contract theory is also just a potential scenario: if a bunch of guys go to Europe early and the MLE sticks around, then it's going to be kaput right quick. A cap clearing Allan Houston rule would also kill it.

Oops. I used Shamsports rather than digging up my own spreadsheet. I forgot to factor that Lewis makes $2M+ more than Arenas. The rookie cap hold for the #5 pick is $2.9M. (They'll actually be paid 120% of that, but you can just use the cap hold figure for cap computation purposes up until the rookie is actually signed to a contract - which can be deferred until after the free agency signing period.)

So it looks like about $50.3M (including cap holds for 9th and 10th men) plus the cost of Nick.

[Hoopalotta]

Ah yes, the rookie cap hold versus 120% pay-scale, I always forget about that one.

It's probably still a coin flip as to whether or not we have any cap space; really depends on what Nick signs for more than anything. Obviously we don't know where the cap line will come down, but the idea that it would come down in proportion to the salary rollbacks is a fair working theory.

[Dat2U]

What I'd do with Nick Young is bring him back on the qualifying offer. I'm not ready to give him an extension just yet. This is the one and only year Young has really broken out.

We will surely extend the QO, but that only gives us the right to match another offer. Someone is sure to come along and extend a better offer than that. The question is: if that offers is roughly the full MLE, do we match?

It's a risk. Is there any way you can bring up players that are or have posted similar stats that Young is putting up? And from there, I guess we can take a look at what kind of contracts they are getting.

MLE is too much money. That's what...almost $6 million a year?

I'm really curious to see what teams would be offering for Nick. I'm still not sold on him but I could probably be talked into keeping him on a modest deal if possible if it's cheap enough to maintain his trade value down the line. If a team comes along with a lottery pick or a solid prospect on their rookie contract then I'd say make a deal without hesitation.

[Zonkerbl]

lockout
/thread

[Ruzious]

Actually, the one caveat is that if there's a lockout, a fair number of these guys might consider signing a one year offer overseas before the CBA thing is sorted out (my understanding is that anyone already under contract can't do that unless they decertify the players union). If would have been 2011 free agent went overseas, they'd probably then join the 2012 free agent class.

Yeah, the 2012 free agent class could be the most impressive in history - especially if the RFA's that don't sign in 2011 become UFA's.

I gotta question Stern... How does the NHL have a 59.4 mil cap http://www.capgeek.com/ - and the NBA have a cap lower than that? There's no chance that the NHL makes more money than the NBA. I find it hard to believe it's even close. Part of the difference is the hard cap vs. the soft cap, but... in that case, I'd look for the NBA cap to increase significantly.

[nate33]

I gotta question Stern... How does the NHL have a 59.4 mil cap http://www.capgeek.com/ - and the NBA have a cap lower than that? There's no chance that the NHL makes more money than the NBA. I find it hard to believe it's even close. Part of the difference is the hard cap vs. the soft cap, but... in that case, I'd look for the NBA cap to increase significantly.

Good point. It seems to me a hard cap or lower salary cap is needed, but not both.

I could be wrong, but my sense is that the current soft cap structure is a healthier arrangement than a pure hard cap. Yes, there will be a modest lack of parity as big market teams have an advantage, but by paying a luxtax, that money gets redistributed to the small market teams so that they can stay in business.

I'd like to see the same basic structure but with a lower luxtax threshold (make it just above the salary cap, or even at the salary cap) and perhaps add a super tax level somewhere above the luxtax threshold where the luxtax doubles.

[Ruzious]

One player who's surprised me that could be a nice cheap pickup to be a 3rd forward type is Shawne Williams (not to be confused with Sean Williams - the problem-child PF who used to play for the Nets). Shawne was the 17th pick in the 2006 draft and is playing fairly well with the Knicks now - mostly in their under-sized lineup at PF. But he's really more of a big 3 than a small 4. He's showing he has legit 3 point range, and he's playing sturdy enough defense to make them comfortable enough to give him minutes at the 4. He's like an economy cost version of Marvin Williams - pretty much the same player but should be much cheaper.

[closg00]

DX's list of top D-League Prospects.

1. Jeff Adrien PF
24 years old, PRO
6' 6" 225lbs.
Connecticut

2. Mustafa Shakur PG
26 years old, PRO
6' 5" 185lbs.
Arizona

3. Marcus Cousin C
24 years old, PRO
6' 11" 250lbs.
Houston

4. Sean Williams PF/C
24 years old, PRO
6' 10" 230lbs.
Boston College

5. Aaron Miles PG
27 years old, PRO
6' 2" 175lbs.
Kansas

6. Othyus Jeffers SF
25 years old, PRO
6' 5" 210lbs.
Robert Morris

7. Kyle Weaver SG
24 years old, PRO
6' 6" 201lbs.
Washington State

8. Antonio Daniels PG
35 years old, PRO
6' 4" 195lbs.
Bowling Green

The rest
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/D- ... z1CBWsD7Bt

[hands11]

First of all, it should be said that we don't project to have any cap space unless we let Nick walk or trade Krik or Dray.

But the real questions for free agency in general this year are:

A) What are the CBA negotiations going to do to the landscape? Is there going to be an amnesty provision that could actually clear cap space? Most importantly: will there be an MLE?
B) How much money is going to be floating around with under the cap teams?

If both those issues converged just so (no MLE and no amnesty), the blokes of the 2011 free agent class could be in a bad way with an extreme buyers market taking shape. While guys like Marc Gasol and Melo would get paid anyway, there might not be enough money available to sign everyone for a "fair" price and the lower tier guys are going to be looking at signing cheap deals.

Actually, the one caveat is that if there's a lockout, a fair number of these guys might consider signing a one year offer overseas before the CBA thing is sorted out (my understanding is that anyone already under contract can't do that unless they decertify the players union). If would have been 2011 free agent went overseas, they'd probably then join the 2012 free agent class.

But, hypothetically, if most of these guys are on the market, there's no MLE and only about ten teams have money, there will be some real cheap contracts signed in late July by players who aren't as high profile/don't fill someone's need (there's a lot of wings available). I wouldn't even think about names, I'd just think about value based on the situation. I know Ted isn't a free agent guy, but those are potential targets of opportunity that you've got to look at. Those guys might also be respectable trade chips in-season where you send out three productive role players while taking back one non-productive expiring and draft picks.

Anyway, we'll have to pull a trade to really have much involvement in the 2011 free agent class. If there's no MLE and we don't move Kirk, we're probably talking minimum salary guys.

Exactly. Way to many things that aren't figure out yet.

We still have a half of season to see what happens with the players we have.

As for the new CBA, think back to what happen when the USFL shut down.

If things happen like I think they may, you could see lots of talent available for cheap. The draft would be much less important that year.

Lets hope Mustafa gets it rolling again, so we can move Kirk. I don't think he really wants to be here.

[VictorPage44]

I gotta question Stern... How does the NHL have a 59.4 mil cap http://www.capgeek.com/ - and the NBA have a cap lower than that? There's no chance that the NHL makes more money than the NBA. I find it hard to believe it's even close. Part of the difference is the hard cap vs. the soft cap, but... in that case, I'd look for the NBA cap to increase significantly.

U kidding? Ever been to a Caps game vs a Wiz game recently? Caps have been sold out for a few seasons straight, the wiz cant even fill up the bottom bowl and the upper deck is entirely closed off half the time. In this city at least, I think the NHL team makes more than the NBA team, regardless of TV contracts. 8000-10000 tickets a game times 40 games a year times fifty bucks for the average ticket has to be more than the difference in TV revenue share. It at least makes it close.

[AceDegenerate]

Yeah try heading around the rest of the country to NHL games, they cannot give away tickets to most games. Just because DV has a sorry ass owner who thinks Hockey is bigger than Basketball don't get yourself confused.

[closg00]

For your consideration if we don't bring-back Shakur. Taylor could always score and dish, and he's got great YouTube highlights

Mike Taylor, the first D-League player drafted by an NBA team, has returned to the developmental league. Taylor has signed a contract to play in the D-League, according to a league source.

He played for the Idaho Stampede during the 2007-08 season and was then drafted with 55th overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft.

Taylor's best game in the NBA was a 35-point outburst against the Knicks on March 25, 2009, when he hit 14-of-20 from the field while also tallying eight rebounds, three assists and two steals.

He went to camp with the Grizzlies last season, but after failing to make the opening-day roster, he chose to play in Serbia with Crvena Zvezda.

[LyricalRico]

At first I thought you were talking about Donnell Taylor. LOL

I still wouldn't mind giving Aaron Miles a shot. He seems like the kind of PG Flip would like.

[RT31]

the wiz cant even fill up the bottom bowl and the upper deck is entirely closed off half the time.

I've been to all but 2 wizards games this season and the "VW Penthaus" has never been closed off. Is there a level higher than the 400 level?

that said, it's been about 1/2 - 2/3 full in the lower level most games. of course, there's the crap games where it's closer to 1/3, but there's also the games where it's 7/8 full. It's never been a sell out (except maybe Lakers or Heat have been close) but it's hardly empty.

[KennyGreen]

Carl Landry, Reggie Evans or Joey Dorsey b/c we need someone at PF to hit the boards (I see Seraphin as the backup C and Booker at SF)...Kelena Azubuike b/c I've always just liked his game and effort...

[nate33]

That's a big fat no to Reggie Evans or Joey Dorsey. Having a great rebounder doesn't help when they're so bad at the rest of the game that they can't get minutes.

Carl Landry is a worse rebounder than Rashard Lewis and can't hold a candle to Andray Blatche or Yi Jianlian in the rebounding department. Landry can score, but he can't rebound (or defend). There's a reason why he doesn't even start on the lowly Sacramento Kings.