2011 Synergy D-stat rankings - Derozan D-stats pg. 11

[Double Helix]

All of this is nice but we'd win a lot more games if we could defend the three point shot and make some of our own. Dribble penetration forces our defenders to rotate more, and that scrambles our defence. Good ball movement ends up killing us with wide open looks beyond the arc.

It's no surprise that are last two wins - Washington and OKC - are mediocre three point shooting teams. Or scroll back to the Indiana win when Granger was ineffective and Josh McRoberts didn't play.

I'm not going to argue that we have great interior D, but in basketball, you just need to shift the paradigm a bit to double your win total. A little more effective D, a little more effective O, can change a 20-win team into a 40-win team without the addition of a superstar. It's the superstars, however, that change the 40-win team into a 60-win contender.

My argument is that the most important stat in building a better Raptor team is not offensive or defensive efficiency, but the spread. The excess of points given up vs points scored. You shouldn't sacrifice a great deal of offence to become a better defensive team. Our best ever defensive team was KO's year - at least until we traded AD for Jalen Rose. That team was unwatchable, and it was still headed for the lottery.

So I prefer a systemic, and somewhat subjective analysis of our issues. If there is one thing I like about a prospect like Harrison Barnes, it's that he'd more likely impact the spread than almost anyone we could draft, Irving included. He's a good perimeter defender, but would have immediate impact as a shooter with good three point range. Conversely, a player like Barbosa has a negative impact because while he can score in bunches some nights, he's not good at keeping his man in front of him. His gambling style leads to too many open drives.

This is probably my favorite post I've read on RealGM in weeks. This makes a lot of sense and you're entirely correct. Small things can make a big difference. I'll go a step further and suggest that even a coaching change toward a more defensive-minded coach could move us up around 10 rankings and if we didn't sacrifice our offence, or better yet, improved upon it ever so slightly due to internal player development and hopefully a productive rookie next year... we'd be on the right path.

[itbobby007]

Tks for answering my question DH. Good discussion overall.

[dagger]

I'd also say that you can get the best defensive big there is - Dwight Howard - or a defensive oriented guy like Kendrick Perkins, and if you let opponents consistent beat you on the perimeter, those guys are going to get in a lot of foul trouble early because they are hard-wired to foul rather than allow open lanes and easy layups. Both are candidates on any given night to foul out, but with our perimeter D, they'd be lucky to play 30 minutes a night.

[dacrusha]

I always thought Ed Davis was an overrated defender here (probably because we have one of the worst help defenders ever in the same team)

And our bigs overall have much harder jobs because none of our perimeter players can defend either. It's a perfect storm really. No wonder we give up the most attempts, makes and highest conversion rate in the paint.

Highlight reel shot blockers with nice block totals have always been seen as good defenders regardless of what they're giving up in order to get those blocks. It's a bi-product of how poor the defensive statistics situation is in the NBA at the moment. It's all most people have to base their defensive opinion on.

Every single big-man defensive player of the year has been at or near the top in shot blocking.

With solid interior defense comes shot blocking... it's just the nature of the position. Even Okafor, who is not noted as a particularly decent shot blocker, is top 10 in the league this season.

[Local_NG_Idiot]

I'd also say that you can get the best defensive big there is - Dwight Howard - or a defensive oriented guy like Kendrick Perkins, and if you let opponents consistent beat you on the perimeter, those guys are going to get in a lot of foul trouble early because they are hard-wired to foul rather than allow open lanes and easy layups. Both are candidates on any given night to foul out, but with our perimeter D, they'd be lucky to play 30 minutes a night.

Kinda like what happens to certain front court Raps already in the rotation?

[5DOM]

I always thought Ed Davis was an overrated defender here (probably because we have one of the worst help defenders ever in the same team)

And our bigs overall have much harder jobs because none of our perimeter players can defend either. It's a perfect storm really. No wonder we give up the most attempts, makes and highest conversion rate in the paint.

Highlight reel shot blockers with nice block totals have always been seen as good defenders regardless of what they're giving up in order to get those blocks. It's a bi-product of how poor the defensive statistics situation is in the NBA at the moment. It's all most people have to base their defensive opinion on.

Every single big-man defensive player of the year has been at or near the top in shot blocking.

With solid interior defense comes shot blocking... it's just the nature of the position. Even Okafor, who is not noted as a particularly decent shot blocker, is top 10 in the league this season.

What about Chuck Hayes?

[Indeed]

All of this is nice but we'd win a lot more games if we could defend the three point shot and make some of our own. Dribble penetration forces our defenders to rotate more, and that scrambles our defence. Good ball movement ends up killing us with wide open looks beyond the arc.

It's no surprise that are last two wins - Washington and OKC - are mediocre three point shooting teams. Or scroll back to the Indiana win when Granger was ineffective and Josh McRoberts didn't play.

I'm not going to argue that we have great interior D, but in basketball, you just need to shift the paradigm a bit to double your win total. A little more effective D, a little more effective O, can change a 20-win team into a 40-win team without the addition of a superstar. It's the superstars, however, that change the 40-win team into a 60-win contender.

My argument is that the most important stat in building a better Raptor team is not offensive or defensive efficiency, but the spread. The excess of points given up vs points scored. You shouldn't sacrifice a great deal of offence to become a better defensive team. Our best ever defensive team was KO's year - at least until we traded AD for Jalen Rose. That team was unwatchable, and it was still headed for the lottery.

So I prefer a systemic, and somewhat subjective analysis of our issues. If there is one thing I like about a prospect like Harrison Barnes, it's that he'd more likely impact the spread than almost anyone we could draft, Irving included. He's a good perimeter defender, but would have immediate impact as a shooter with good three point range. Conversely, a player like Barbosa has a negative impact because while he can score in bunches some nights, he's not good at keeping his man in front of him. His gambling style leads to too many open drives.

Kemba Walker would be another ideal candidate.

[Reignman]

No thanks on Kemba, I'd much rather roll the dice with Knight.

[dacrusha]

Highlight reel shot blockers with nice block totals have always been seen as good defenders regardless of what they're giving up in order to get those blocks. It's a bi-product of how poor the defensive statistics situation is in the NBA at the moment. It's all most people have to base their defensive opinion on.

Every single big-man defensive player of the year has been at or near the top in shot blocking.

With solid interior defense comes shot blocking... it's just the nature of the position. Even Okafor, who is not noted as a particularly decent shot blocker, is top 10 in the league this season.

What about Chuck Hayes?

Exception rather than the norm. Generally speaking, the best interior defenders in the league are also the most skilled shot blockers.

Howard, Wallace, Camby, Mutombo, Mourning, Olajuwon, Robinson, Eaton... all DPYs. All at or near the top in shot blocking.

[J-Roc]

Exception rather than the norm.

Generally speaking, the best interior defenders in the league are also the most skilled shot blockers.

Just shot blocking, or also the ability to take charges? I feel like the two ways to stop a player are by taking a charge or blocking his shot. If you're known to do either of those, the offensive player can be intimidated.

The thing about taking a charge, is you have to be in position. With shot blocking, I think some guys are racking up stats by letting themselves get beat, then blocking from behind.

[dagger]

Exception rather than the norm.

Generally speaking, the best interior defenders in the league are also the most skilled shot blockers.

Just shot blocking, or also the ability to take charges? I feel like the two ways to stop a player are by taking a charge or blocking his shot. If you're known to do either of those, the offensive player can be intimidated.

The thing about taking a charge, is you have to be in position. With shot blocking, I think some guys are racking up stats by letting themselves get beat, then blocking from behind.

I think there is some validity in your argument. Some of the best defenders are good shotblockers, but a lot of great shotblockers are only decent or even mediocre defenders. I don't think Sam Dalembert is a good defender. I don't think JaVale McGee is a good defender. Certainly, Andris Biedrins can't defend squat, but was revered as a shotblocker.

Great defenders at each position aren't necessarily the best or flashiest athletes. A guy like Udonis Haslem is a quality defender without being a great shotblocker. There are those who believe Memphis is just as good if not better with Shane Battier at small forward instead of Rudy Gay.

[Double Helix]

It will be interesting to read what BorisD makes of Synergy's work here.

Boris' work on the Raptors this year seems to paint a different picture than this but that's more than likely because his work is far more comprehensive/elaborate weighing many other factors than the 4 Synergy tracks. Boris' stats take tons of variables into account and even go as far as to include forced missed free throws, something that I think is absolutely brilliant to track.

Still, I don't think there's any denying the fact that the more elaborate and subjective the data becomes in comparison to this Synergy data the harder it is to work with both in mind in order to get a better idea of what's happening league-wide. How would some of these other players look under BorisD's metrics? Would some look even worse? Would some look a bit better? Beyond Amir Johnson, who Boris has obviously much higher than Andrea (which does make sense to me as well) none of us can really say... not even Boris himself because he hasn't watched and tracked their games the way he has the Raps this year.

Still, I'll be interested to see if he chimes in here with some thoughts of his own. His stats are far more elaborate. It's a shame we didn't have the equivalent league-wide. The NBA needs more defensive stats; this much I think we can all agree on. All of us lack comparative ability beyond what's being provided here to judge these players effectively on the defensive end and that's something I've been suggesting for many weeks now whenever people make blanket statements one way or the other about player values.

[Yeezus_]

Exception rather than the norm.

Generally speaking, the best interior defenders in the league are also the most skilled shot blockers.

Just shot blocking, or also the ability to take charges? I feel like the two ways to stop a player are by taking a charge or blocking his shot. If you're known to do either of those, the offensive player can be intimidated.

The thing about taking a charge, is you have to be in position. With shot blocking, I think some guys are racking up stats by letting themselves get beat, then blocking from behind.

I think there is some validity in your argument. Some of the best defenders are good shotblockers, but a lot of great shotblockers are only decent or even mediocre defenders. I don't think Sam Dalembert is a good defender. I don't think JaVale McGee is a good defender. Certainly, Andris Biedrins can't defend squat, but was revered as a shotblocker.

Great defenders at each position aren't necessarily the best or flashiest athletes. A guy like Udonis Haslem is a quality defender without being a great shotblocker. There are those who believe Memphis is just as good if not better with Shane Battier at small forward instead of Rudy Gay.

Agreed. Positional defenders are the best. What I mean is that a player who knows where to be on the court while defending his man, rotating to defend a teammates man will go a long way in terms of defense. I would assume basketball players with high IQ would be good defenders ? Players who know where to be on the court is rare in my opinion.

[AkelaLoneWolf]

DH,
how does DeAndre Jordan rank comparatively? I've always thought he would be a good fit at C next to Bargs.

[Double Helix]

DH,
how does DeAndre Jordan rank comparatively? I've always thought he would be a good fit at C next to Bargs.

He and Demarcus Cousins were two of the better ranked ranked young guys in the league according to Synergy. I'd have to double-check but both were ranked in the low hundreds I think which is phenomenal when you're talking about PF/Cs who are as young as they are.

EDIT:

DeAndre Jordan: 110
Iso: 130
Post-Up: 75
Pick and Roll Man: 52
Spot-Up: 95

DeMarcus Cousins: 82
Iso: 225
Post-Up: 37
Pick and Roll Man: 18
Spot Up: 105

Both look like they're going to be excellent defensive presences, especially as they continue to grow and learn more about the NBA.

One funny thing I've kind of noticed is that the younger guys tend to do better in the spot up category. I'm just guessing here but I figure the younger PFs/Cs are more loaded with energy/young legs so they cover more ground faster and seem a little wilder than some of the other, older or slower guys so maybe they throw off shooters a bit more. Just a guess though.

[tofu_camby]

Does anybody really think David Lee, Carlos Boozer, Andris Biedrins, JJ Hickson, Roy Hibbert, Pekovic, and even Dalembert etc make up for their weaknesses here with tremendously better "help defence?"

...

There's always been this huge assumption that Bargnani is the worst defender in comparison to every other starting big in the NBA and I've always had my doubts because I watch a lot of basketball and while I know he's bad... I also knew there are a lot of other surprisingly bad defending bigs in the NBA who often aren't called out as much.

Right on.

[5DOM]

I think the problem with using stats to evaluate someone's defensive abilities is that way too many times players make shots despite good defense and miss shots despite bad D.

[Double Helix]

I think the problem with using stats to evaluate someone's defensive abilities is that way too many times players make shots despite good defense and miss shots despite bad D.

It's always important to keep a lot of factors in mind when considering any statistic. Still, the fact that Synergy has recorded EVERY defensive possession in EVERY game so far this season should reduce any weird games here or there and paint a pretty accurate picture of how these guys play/react in different, common NBA situations.

[Kabookalu]

I'm not surprised at the numbers. Other than one overtime game against the Bucks where he was defending Bogut, Amir has usually been burned multiple times in one on one situations. So as Davis. It's understandable because they're not very strong and they make it up with their help defense and rotations, Bargnani doesn't have an excuse though. His man defense was his only saving grace and he has the tools to be a very good man defender. Actually has the weight unlike Ed and Amir, lower body strength and a low center of balance.

[Reignman]

DH,
how does DeAndre Jordan rank comparatively? I've always thought he would be a good fit at C next to Bargs.

He and Demarcus Cousins were two of the better ranked ranked young guys in the league according to Synergy. I'd have to double-check but both were ranked in the low hundreds I think which is phenomenal when you're talking about PF/Cs who are as young as they are.

EDIT:

DeAndre Jordan: 110
Iso: 130
Post-Up: 75
Pick and Roll Man: 52
Spot-Up: 95

DeMarcus Cousins: 82
Iso: 225
Post-Up: 37
Pick and Roll Man: 18
Spot Up: 105

Both look like they're going to be excellent defensive presences, especially as they continue to grow and learn more about the NBA.

One funny thing I've kind of noticed is that the younger guys tend to do better in the spot up category. I'm just guessing here but I figure the younger PFs/Cs are more loaded with energy/young legs so they cover more ground faster and seem a little wilder than some of the other, older or slower guys so maybe they throw off shooters a bit more. Just a guess though.

I'm a huge DMC fan and I think he's going to be a dominant C in a few years but I don't see him being a defensive monster. He could be good but not a beast. Kind of like Shaq. People always remember shaq as being a monster but he wasn't The Dream on defense that's for sure. I see the same for DMC, just a big guy that knows how to get in the way.

Plus both DMC and DJ pick up fouls at an alarming rate right now so those numbers might be a bit skewed.