How do you fix this team?

[eitanr]

In the end of the day after much middling back and forth, I'd be okay with Young and Blatche coming back provided that the Wiz could find a way to nad that Charlotte pick and select Terrence Jones using that Atlanta pick.

I'd probably be okay with absorbing Carroll's deal or even, gulp, Diop's deal just to make that pick swap and ensure Terrence Jones as a Wizard. Then again I'm not the owner. Even if the Wiz can't land Derrick Williams...I'd be okay with a Enes Kanter or even Jonas Voluncious selection with that 1st pick and end up with the following lineup:
PF A. Blatche/ T. Booker
SF T. Jones/ R. Lewis
C J. McGee/ E. Kanter/ K. Seraphin/ D. Diop
SG N. Young/ J. Crawford
PG J. Wall/ J. Crawford/ E. Presdlyc

I think that lineup can play different styles and would have a ton of potential. Then if it shows enough promise next year etc, you can try parlaying Lewis and now Diop's expiring 2013 deals for a vet that could put them over the top.

[Ed Wood]

This is something you'd have to pitch to Stern and the league in advance to insure their cooperation but if you phrased it the right way I think it would go over very well with the league because of the positive press it would generate:

A Multistep Process to Basketball Science
1) Win lottery and trade first overall pick (rights to Kyrie Irving) to Cleveland for the second (or third or whatever) and eighth picks).
2) Draft (in order):

1) Jonas Valanciunas
2) Jan Vesely
3) Nikola Mirotic
4) Dojan Bogdanovic

3) Sign Jonas Jerebko
3) Have all five players get a buzz cut, dye their hair black and give them the numbers 33, 38, 83, 88 and 80. Maybe make Bogdanovic wear platform shoes or something.
4) Install fMRI equipment courtside at the Verison center.
5) Publish a study at the end of the year about the effects of physiological stress on face perception.

[Hoopalotta]

Ya' know, somehow Memphis went from 24th to 8th in defensive efficiency in one year. Their defense at the rim was still marginal, though definitely better than last year (they led the league in opponent makes at the rim in 2010, mostly due to an absurd number of attempts).

Tony Allen for the whole year and Battier for about 30 games or whatever, but you've got to figure a lot was internal improvement too.

As it so happens, we're 23rd in defensive efficiency this year as of now, so logically, the best course of action would be to get blown out by Clevland and fall to 24th.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

1. Replace Flip with JVG.

2. Sign FA Marc Gasol.

3. Draft Derrick Williams, Chris Singleton, Nolan Smith.


That would be a good start.

[hands11]

Just getting caught up reading this thread and nothing seems to have changed in a while.

First, people talking about trading Dray right now just seems way off base to me. Specially for a mid first rounder.

Again. 6-11 260 24 yrs old with 6 years exp and stats going up every year and under a reasonable contract. That is not someone you trade. Specially if you are rebuilding. Specially off an injured year.

His shooting percentage is returning. Since Jan he is at .480 to .500 percent.
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... ay-blatche

Drays biggest problem is maturity at this point and he is showing some signs of getting better about that. How he came back from his recent injury is one sign of progress. He watched the team from the sidelines and when he returned, he adjusted his game. After a difficult year with lots of changes, he is finding his role. Remember how the year started and how confused Dray was about this role. And look how much Nick improved from 24 to 25. Give Dray another summer to grow up. Dray at 25 should be Dray in his prime. That is something I want to see.

I can see Dray starting on a average playoff team. From there, we will see if he can grow to be more than that. This is a huge summer for Dray. This is the summer he needs to make that big leap in maturity and physical preparation. I think the table to set for him to figure it out. He has a great group of young guys to grow with finally. He doesn't have an AJ vet in front of him and he also isn't the top dog on a team getting blown up. And there are stronger, younger, hungrier group of players around him like Booker and ever Jeffers as examples. And there are driven players like Wall and Craw. I would think he wants to stay and be a part of this rebuild. Everything should be more clear for him now and he is just the right age to make the mental leap. He has his contract and the table is set for how this team is going to progress. And add the likely motivator of fear. This is his chance. If he doesn't get it done, he could get moved. They may add a younger player behind him at his position. Now he has to fight to prove it is his to keep. I don't think they will add a starting quality PF in draft so he should get next year to prove himself.

Aside from that, we still have to see what picks we get, who will be in the draft and what the new CBA looks like before anyone can lay out a solid detailed plan regarding who to add. I think they will focus on SF and maybe a center to back up McGee. Center and back up PF are the weakest links on this team for next year. Seraphin isn't a lock at back up center yet. He could get moved to back up back up PF. Hamady is a ??. They need a seed the SF slot with someone to play with Booker longer term since Lewis will be likely replaced in a year. PF/PG/SG seem set for next year but back up PF isn't. I doubt whoever they draft will start the year starting and that a good thing. They can bring them along slower like they did Booker but they should be able to win games while doing it and have more structure. Booker should be able to start at SF with Lewis backing him up so if they get a SF, the can groom that player.

But first things first. We need to know what picks we get and who will be available in the draft.

[Dat2U]

1. Fire Ernie, Hire me.

2. Fire Flip. Bring in a young defensive minded coach who can relate to a young roster.

3. 5th pick - Draft G Kemba Walker

4. Trade ATL pick / C Kevin Seraphin for Anderson Varejao (use cap room to take on salary)

5. 2nd rd pick - Draft G David Lighty

6. Sign FA Shane Battier.

New lineup:

PF Andray Blatche / Trevor Booker / CBA'er
SF Shane Battier / Rashard Lewis / CBA'er
CE Javale McGee / Anderson Varejao / CBA'er
SG Jordan Crawford / Othyus Jeffers / David Lighty
PG John Wall / Kemba Walker

Battier, Varejao & Walker collectively raise the b-ball IQ ten fold. Varejao & Battier bring infectious veteran defensive intensity which hopefully rubs off on teammates. Team goes 9-10 deep with a very solid bench. Walker backups up both guard spots and is interchangeable with both Crawford & Wall.

Win 35-40 games, give the young kiddies a taste of winning basketball and hopefully change the losing culture which has permeated the franchise for the last few years.

[hands11]

Okay. "Poor" efficiency if the term "mediocre" violates your sensibilities. My point is, the injury may explain why he dropped from last seasons poor efficiency to this year's outright abysmal efficiency. If Blatche can post a TS% around 51-52% again while scoring 18 points, other teams would be interested in him. Nobody wants him right now with his .487 TS%

Well since this post he has brought it up to .496

I wish I knew how to isolate this these numbers from Jan forward. He had a really slow start this year. His early numbers look terrible with FG% in the low 4s. Taken from Jan would be an interesting number to see.

[Ed Wood]

Moneyball is a book designed much more to entertain than to inform and a great deal of it has to be taken with a grain of salt but one thing Michael Lewis emphasized appropriately was the idea that in player evaluation you need to realize that what a player did last is not necessarily what he is going to do next. This is true when looking at a player who was unusually good over the course of an entire year (the contract year rule) and its doubly true when you're talking about maybe a month in this case.

No player is the same day in and day out for an entire season, even the most consistent players will have good weeks, good months, and bad weeks and months. Andray has pretty well established himself as a 50-51% TS player over the course of about half a decade now, a very large sample size from which we can make fairly confident evaluations. The one positive sign going forward is that his foul shooting continues to improve, meaning that if he manages to shoot a more normal % from the field next year and draw about an average number of fouls his efficiency should increase slightly. But the bottom line is that while players aren't robots and you can't assume they'll be completely predictable when you have years and years of inefficiency to consider from a guy like Andray a few weeks of shooting 50% from the field isn't reason to conclude much has changed.

Edit: Also Dat, what on earth would you do with Wall, Crawford and Walker on the same team other than freeze out the rest of the roster like the smelly kid in a a game of catch?

[Nivek]

hands: Blatche's shooting/offensive efficiency this season:

Code: Select all

Blatche eFG     TS%     sOrtg
Oct-Dec .426    .476    81.6
Jan-Apr .461    .511    88.9
Feb-Apr .494    .535    92.7
Lg.Avg. .498    .541    93.7


sOrtg is "simple" offensive rating, which Kevin Pelton uses quite a bit at Basketball Prospectus. Edited to add Feb-Apr, which is probably what you're really looking for. So, ALMOST to the league average for a quarter season.

Ed: 50-51% TS% is below average. Which is a problem for a guy who views himself, and appears to be viewed by the team's decision-makers, as a scorer.

[Ed Wood]

That was my point Kevin, that Andray has been a high volume, low efficiency scorer for years and at this point you have to assume that he will continue to be both, whatever he's done over the last ten games.

You're making me look bad in front of my fiends, dad. VVV

[Nivek]

That was my point Kevin, that Andray has been a high volume, low efficiency scorer for years and at this point you have to assume that he will continue to be both, whatever he's done over the last ten games.

Yeah, I agree. My post above was intended as adding on to your point, not refuting or correcting anything.

[Ruzious]

1. Fire Ernie, Hire me.

2. Fire Flip. Bring in a young defensive minded coach who can relate to a young roster.

3. 5th pick - Draft G Kemba Walker

4. Trade ATL pick / C Kevin Seraphin for Anderson Varejao (use cap room to take on salary)

5. 2nd rd pick - Draft G David Lighty

6. Sign FA Shane Battier.

New lineup:

PF Andray Blatche / Trevor Booker / CBA'er
SF Shane Battier / Rashard Lewis / CBA'er
CE Javale McGee / Anderson Varejao / CBA'er
SG Jordan Crawford / Othyus Jeffers / David Lighty
PG John Wall / Kemba Walker

Battier, Varejao & Walker collectively raise the b-ball IQ ten fold. Varejao & Battier bring infectious veteran defensive intensity which hopefully rubs off on teammates. Team goes 9-10 deep with a very solid bench. Walker backups up both guard spots and is interchangeable with both Crawford & Wall.

Win 35-40 games, give the young kiddies a taste of winning basketball and hopefully change the losing culture which has permeated the franchise for the last few years.

If you're goal is to be a perennial 35 win team, that's the way to do it. As bad a move as taking Walker at 5 is, it pales to your Varejao trade - unless it's a mistake on the tradechecker that he's got 4 more years on his contract. I could almost maybe sorta understand it if V was young, but you're trying to tie up way too much money long-term on mediocre bigs. If you're going to trade young assets, don't trade them for middle-aged ordinary players with long contracts.

[LyricalRico]

Use the #5 pick on an undersized backup PG?!?! And my ideas are bad?!?!



Viva Ernie!

[Ed Wood]

Well here's a pretty optimistic rebuild plan (yet again specifically with regard to the draft, I guess I'm just a pick trading kind of guy):

1) Swap Washington first and Atlanta First for Utah's two first round picks.
2) Trade down from Jersey's pick to Golden State's pick in return for a swap of Blatche for Dorrell Wright and maybe something else because that doesn't seem like very good return at the moment.
3) Look into a BOYD trade or to purchase a pick, say one of the Bulls' late first round picks (as much out of habit honestly, it kind of creates a roster logjam).

Draft:
Kanter (Warriors pick)
Terrence Jones/Jan Vesely with Utah's pick
Reggie Jackson or Nolan Smith and either Faried, Mirotic or Justin Harper with the later picks.

Free Agency:
Sign Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Jonas Jerebko.

With a final rotation of:

Wall/Jackson or Smith (Jackson is my preference but both look like decent bets)
Battier/Crawford
Wright/Jerebko
The Underkanter/Jones/Vesely (I don't have a strong preference) also Booker, might have to do something about that log jam
Hayes/McGee (or vice versa, whatever makes more sense in training camp)

Seraphin can brush up in the D League and team up with Kanter to challenge for the tag team world title, the other big man winds up on the team because we had the pick and I don't like the wings available in the high second (Jereme Richmond, mmm) but I'd consider Honeycutt, JaJuan Johnson and Klay Thompson as well, depending on who was available) and Rashard gets an excused absence for the year.

The team is still very dependent on Wall to generate offense, particularly for the starters (depending on what Kanter can do as a rookie offensively) but it's light years better defensively, Wall Crawford and McGee being the only known qualities defensively who aren't good at it and most of the rookies project to be solid defenders as well.

Offensively the shot mix would be better (Battier and Wright shoot threes, Hayes and Booker only shoot inside, Kanter mostly the same) but the number of players who could be depended on to use possessions has decreased significantly (minus Blatche and Young). I'd say it's a worthwhile trade and the team could still get by usage-wise and the uptick in efficiency and improvement from Wall, Crawford and maybe McGee would probably result in a better offensive team overall.

Moving forward we'd have to see what we have in Kanter and other big guy and where they fit in positionally plus look for another wing to provide two way punch after Battier hustles off into the sunset.

[hands11]

hands: Blatche's shooting/offensive efficiency this season:

Code: Select all

Blatche eFG     TS%     sOrtg
Oct-Dec .426    .476    81.6
Jan-Apr .461    .511    88.9
Feb-Apr .494    .535    92.7
Lg.Avg. .498    .541    93.7


sOrtg is "simple" offensive rating, which Kevin Pelton uses quite a bit at Basketball Prospectus. Edited to add Feb-Apr, which is probably what you're really looking for. So, ALMOST to the league average for a quarter season.

Ed: 50-51% TS% is below average. Which is a problem for a guy who views himself, and appears to be viewed by the team's decision-makers, as a scorer.

That's for taking the time to post those numbers.

Well, people will see what they want as always and we will never know for sure until next season.

I guess I take the side of wanting to see that for several reasons which I and other have outlined.

Age 24
Injury. Not typical for him and he plays through injuries. Even painful ones.
New team construction that fits his age better. I think this group pull him up more than others.
Past production when healthy. He has a nice skill set for 6-11 260
He still has upside if he improves he mind and body.
Current trade value not at it's best even if you want to trade him.
There is no hurry to trade him with a lock out on the horizon and a shortened season.

[hands11]

That was my point Kevin, that Andray has been a high volume, low efficiency scorer for years and at this point you have to assume that he will continue to be both, whatever he's done over the last ten games.

You're making me look bad in front of my fiends, dad. VVV

Feb to April is like 34 games.

He played 63 this year.

[verbal8]

3) Look into a BOYD trade or to purchase a pick, say one of the Bulls' late first round picks (as much out of habit honestly, it kind of creates a roster logjam).

Unless there is a consolidation trade, I think a BOYD should target a 2012 or even 2013 pick. Not only do the Wizards have their 1st and the ATL 1st, but the second round pick is the 34th pick. There have been some decent players picked in the mid to late 30s in the last 5 drafts. Unless there is a specific target, I don't see much reason to add a pick in the 20s.

[Nivek]

That was my point Kevin, that Andray has been a high volume, low efficiency scorer for years and at this point you have to assume that he will continue to be both, whatever he's done over the last ten games.

You're making me look bad in front of my fiends, dad. VVV

Feb to April is like 34 games.

He played 63 this year.

22 games for Blatche, actually. 691 total minutes.

[BYRDMAN RULZ]

This team has some good young pieces, now we need to add some veteran leadership and toughness. Maybe even someone from a winning traditon.

Here are the keepers or players we are probably stuck with. This could change based upon what we get from our 2 first round picks:

Wall (No explanation needed)
Crawford (Has stud written all over him)
Young (I think Wall, Crawford, and Young make a nice 3 guard rotation)
Lewis (He is your starting 3 if healthy and no trade can be made)
McGhee (Gotta keep him, but needs a defensive minded/rebounding PF next to him)
Mo Evans (Maybe keep for the right price and contract and depending who you draft or pick up)
A. Blatche (Sell while you can get max value for him, would only trade to improve the team but not to just get rid of him) I would prefer to have a defensive minded rebouder who is not undersized starting.
T. Booker (like his energy and hustle a bit undersized but a keeper)
Seraphin (Need to keep and find minutes for him next year)
Ndiaye (keep for now, would have liked to see him get some burn in the last 15-20 games)
Jeffers, Owens, Shakur (maybe can only keep one)

After looking at the free agent list here are some of the players I would like to see the Wiz take a look at. Some are more realistic than others, but if we could get them for the right price why not.

Jeff Green (If the price was right and I could move Rashard Lewis) (R)
Big Baby (Would look nice in the starting line up) (U)
Kwame Brown (Good defender and rebounder, just a thought) (U)
Joel Pryzbilla (If he can return from injury and not retire) (U)
Tyson Chandler (not realistic but why not if we could get him) (U)
Wislon Chanler (see Jeff Green comment) (R)
NeNe ( see Tyson Chandler) (U)
DeAndre Jordan (Intriguing but not realistic since we already have McGhee) (R)
Marc Gasol ( see Tyson Chandler) (R)
Luc Mbah a Mute (love the way he plays ) (R)
Greg Oden (for the right price, you may be able to get him cheap because of his injury history) (R)
Sam Delembert (a veteran starting center) (U)
Joey Dorsey (brings toughness and rebounding something we are sorely lacking) (R)
Reggie Evans (See Joey Dorsey-plus he always punishes the Wiz) (U)
Kirlinko (more attractive if we didnt have R. Lewis, but would pursue more vigorously if we didnt have Lewis)

[JonathanJoseph]

Lots of smart posters here continuing to point out Blatche's limitations, with the stats to back it up. I still do not care what the stats say and still believe it would still be crazy to move Blatche anytime soon.

He's 24 and only been a permanent starter/main cog for ~100 games now and he's had two stretches of dominant, winning basketball (I don't care if the stats say "inefficient. Blatche has been the best player on the floor). The Wizards finished two years in a row winning games (yes winning more than losing) with depleted rosters and trade pieces and the key to the wins has been Blatche's play.

He's under a cheap contract and has star potential if he can mature as a person. He has a rare skillset. No matter what happens, he'll get at least 2 more seasons in Washington to see if he can grow up. If (yes it is a big if) Blatche reaches his potential and Wall reaches his potential, you have a championship caliber duo. And that's without mentioning McGee.

Enough with the Blatche hate, which is way over the top. He's not going anywhere.