2010-11 POY Voting Thread - Congrats Dirk Nowitzki!

[_SRV_]

Right, and both were clearly the best in the league, both had amazing performances and both laid an egg in the finals, Dirk's stats as the best, were better than LeBron.
You even put him 4th in 06, behind 2 guys who even didn't reach conference finals.

[Gongxi]

I didn't explain? I thought I clearly did: in 2006 there was no clear best player in the NBA through the regular season. The playoffs separated 3-4 of them. In 2011, LeBron was clearly the best player through the regular season. The playoffs offered upward mobility for many, but LeBron didn't do poorly enough to give them that opportunity to surpass him.

I didn't say that already? I could've sworn I did. LeBron produced the best. He played the best basketball for the longest amount of time. Your Dirk crusade is very bizarre.

[mysticbb]

LeBron produced the best.

What does "producing the best" mean? Can we measure it or is that something not measurable?

Your Dirk crusade is very bizarre.

Bizarre? Why?

[_SRV_]

Dirk played the best and produced the best in 06', his rivals, and those close to him were Kobe and LeBron, not Wade, you gave Wade the nudge over dirk, you didn't do it to dirk vs LeBron.
LeBron wasn't clearly the best either, he finished 3rd in MVP ratings in RS for a reason you know...

[Gongxi]

Right, and both were clearly the best in the league, both had amazing performances and both laid an egg in the finals, Dirk's stats as the best, were better than LeBron.
You even put him 4th in 06, behind 2 guys who even didn't reach conference finals.

Er...no, Dirk wasn't clearly the best in the league in 2006. I also have been pretty clear about not rewarding players for team accomplishments, so it really isn't weird that I would put a guy whose team was in the Finals behind guys that didn't reach the conference finals. Are we rewarding teams or players? I guess that's kind of the question at hand.

mystic- production is how well the produce. Ya know, how well they shoot, how well they rebound, how well they defend, how well they score, etc. Ya know, play basketball. Most of that can be measured, yes.

[Gongxi]

Dirk played the best and produced the best in 06', his rivals, and those close to him were Kobe and LeBron, not Wade, you gave Wade the nudge over dirk, you didn't do it to dirk vs LeBron.
LeBron wasn't clearly the best either, he finished 3rd in MVP ratings in RS for a reason you know...

[_SRV_]

Great argument.

[mysticbb]

mystic- production is how well the produce. Ya know, how well they shoot, how well they rebound, how well they defend, how well they score, etc. Ya know, play basketball. Most of that can be measured, yes.

I don't know, because so far I think Nowitzki in 2006 was better at shooting the ball, more efficient at scoring at a similar rate, was for sure better rebounding the ball and had a bigger impact defensively than Dwyane Wade. Maybe you can back your claim up that Wade "produced" better than Nowitzki in 2006, because I can't see it.

And for 2011: Nowitzki scored better, rebounded better, was the better shooter than James. Well, James was better 1on1 defender, but in an overall team concept Nowitzki doesn't need to hide himself in terms of defensive impact. James was better as a distributer, but Nowitzki was WAY better doing all the off-the-ball stuff (ya know, like setting screens, providing floor spacing, using screens, moving off the ball, ya know, playing basketball in a team game.;)).

Thus far, giving your responses, SRV is right, you are inconsistent in your voting.

[Gongxi]

Dude, you just said Dirk was clearly the best player in the NBA in 2006. What did you expect? Would you create some huge post to rebut someone that said The Simpsons is clearly the best show of all time? Of course you wouldn't because even if it is the best, it's laughable that someone would say it was "clearly".

It was just funny, dude.

[ElGee]

I wouldn't. I'm assigning values for an all-in-one metric. Synergy just breaks down different situations. Furthermore, rebounding is included for me, and Dirk's DREB the last 2 years has basically been the lowest of his career. Curious, what do the synergy numbers say? Can you post them? How do they treat forced TOV in help situations like steals and charges?

They assigned the real points per play to those players. For Nowitzki it was 0.82 points per play for the whole regular season and playoffs. 0.76 on Isolations, 0.72 on post-ups, 0.8 on p&r man, 0.9 on spotup, 1.07 off screens. Overall Nowitzki ended up with the 70th best value, 34th on postups and 30th on p&r.
There is no specific count for forced turnovers.

The thing is that those Synergy Sports values are basically in agreement what I think Nowitzki can do. They are also in agreement with the defensive RAPM value for Nowitzki (if we take the impact on defense due to more efficient offense and Nowitzki going back on defense rather quickly into account). Your numbers are not.

Do "isolations" even counts rotations at the rim? Not to mention, c'mon, not including forced turnovers is huge. And that said, he's 70th in the league?

Sorry, I'm not seeing the huge gap you're portraying here...

[_SRV_]

Both players finished 3rd in MVP voting.
Both lead the league in PER and in WS.
Both players' teams finished in their conference.

I don't know what is your magical criteria for clearly the best player, really.

[Gongxi]

mystic- production is how well the produce. Ya know, how well they shoot, how well they rebound, how well they defend, how well they score, etc. Ya know, play basketball. Most of that can be measured, yes.

I don't know, because so far I think Nowitzki in 2006 was better at shooting the ball, more efficient at scoring at a similar rate, was for sure better rebounding the ball and had a bigger impact defensively than Dwyane Wade. Maybe you can back your claim up that Wade "produced" better than Nowitzki in 2006, because I can't see it.

Well, I count the playoffs twice as heavily as the regular season. Still, a close year all around.

And for 2011: Nowitzki scored better, rebounded better, was the better shooter than James. Well, James was better 1on1 defender, but in an overall team concept Nowitzki doesn't need to hide himself in terms of defensive impact. James was better as a distributer, but Nowitzki was WAY better doing all the off-the-ball stuff (ya know, like setting screens, providing floor spacing, using screens, moving off the ball, ya know, playing basketball in a team game.).

Ah, when Dirk is better, he's just better. When LeBron is better, there are rational justifications for it. Very nice, I understand psychologists love that kind of stuff. For the shrinks out there (oops sorry, I know those guys don't like to be confused with psychiatrists), why would there be such a huge divergence in their PERs? What is the justification- that ultimately explains away and favors Dirk- for that, I wonder.

Thus far, giving your responses, SRV is right, you are inconsistent in your voting.

Nah, he's wrong.

[_SRV_]

I'm actually never wrong, it's a proven fact.

[Gongxi]

Both players finished 3rd in MVP voting.

Narrative. Or are you voting for Rose this year?

Both lead the league in PER and in WS.

Okay? So I assume your vote is for LeBron?

Both players' teams finished in their conference.

I don't think you're getting the concept of team vs. individual. You might be looking for the Retro Team of the Year thread.

I don't know what is your magical criteria for clearly the best player, really.

Plays the best basketball...

What is your criteria for clearly? Is the PER leader every year always clearly the best player? That's interesting.

[_SRV_]

Did I say the PER leader is the best? we are arguing facts, metrics are used to support facts, currently all metrics side my arguments, yours is just your opinion of who plays best basketball.
If this started by your opinion of who is, it would've been fine, but you actually mocked the integrity of this award, when really, according to you, it's based on an opinion of who plays the best basketball.

[mysticbb]

Do "isolations" even counts rotations at the rim?

Why shouldn't they? But I can't say for sure.

Not to mention, c'mon, not including forced turnovers is huge.

Those are included, they just not listed separately. ;)

And that said, he's 70th in the league?

How many players are in the league? And I would question their measurements, if Nowitzki would be among the Top10 or so.

Sorry, I'm not seeing the huge gap you're portraying here...

Well, he is 0.08 points per play better than average, which makes him for sure positive. He has clearly a positive defensive RAPM. You are coming up with him being negative, that's why I asked that question.

[Gongxi]

Yes, I mock it when it's driven by narrative. Which is why I didn't like the voting happening right after the Finals.

And no, all metrics don't support you at all. For example, you used PER. The difference in 2006 between #1 (Dirk) and #4 (Wade) was very small. And Wade played out of his mind in half of the playoffs, which I've been very open about counting twice as much. He certainly had a better postseason than Dirk, did he not?

Now, LeBron was not neck and neck with Dirk during the season. He was far ahead. And he played more games, which I've also stressed as critical in this project, which is why Shaq didn't get my #1 for like 6 straight years, as he would've had he been more healthy. But **** it, no reason to look into that, easier to just say I'm 'inconsistent' without opening your **** eyes and reading, so skip that. Who wasn't LeBron really far ahead of? Dwight. Dwight didn't play badly at all, but he just plain didn't play enough in the playoffs to overcome what LeBron was doing.

And Dirk didn't either.

[ElGee]

I'm with regulator - the tone in this thread leaves a lot to be desired.

I originally had Nowitzki 4th, as late as publishing my ballot in the thread. I changed it in an edit. Why? As I said, 2-4 this year is a mess, they are super close, and I was trying to be historically consistent with my own votes by rewarding a great offensive cog (eg Rick Barry 1975) as a tiebreaker. I'm still not sure how I feel about it, but I'm sure I don't think Dirk is a player than DH, LBJ or Wade.

Yes, I think Dirk has been underrated in the past. For me, the actual positions don't mean much versus how I evaluate a player. Dirk 06 is comparable to Dirk 11 to me (better by a shade?) Dirk 11 is a different player because he gives you better/different offense.

IMO, Wade, and maybe Howard, are also better than Dirk. Wade had a number of issues, and Howard I'm just not 100% sure about -- for instance, was his defensive effort lacking a little this RS? I thought so. So at the end of the day, I rewarded Dirk, again trying to consistent about offensive cogs at that level, and I'm not sure it's 100% correct.

But man, I'm so sick and tired of team success being discussed OUTSIDE of team analysis (in this case, Carlisle, Chandler, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Barea, even Stevenson and Peja). If anything, I'd want Dirk voted lower than higher. But I understand that other posters don't use the same criteria. That circumstantial "value" is important to them, and thus Wade/James diminish each other to a degree.

And the "how did you finish" syndrome that sweeps everyone up. As if Kobe averaged 50 a game vs. Dallas and LA won (could have easily been up 2-1 anyway) and then Pau averaged 40-20 for the last 2 rounds, he would "clearly" be the POY and win the ballot. Guess what? Sucking in the second round also can end your season. Some guys aren't lucky enough to be saved.

Still, I'm with Gongxi in that it feels like a Retro Team of the Year w Best Player (RTOYBP) sometimes. I don't really understand why there is such a bias against people who have their *team* lose pre-playoffs, 1st, 2nd or 3rd round. If Dallas played the 04 Pistons in the FINAL Finals, and lost, would Dirk still be an "obvious" No. 1 to you guys?

[_SRV_]

Dirk played out of his mind half the playoffs (more than half actually).
The difference in PER between Dirk and Wade in '06 is smaller than between LeBron and Dirk in 11, but in both cases there was statistical superiority, there is also another very important stat which is win shares, and the difference is more apparent there.
Dirk played 73 games, LeBron 79, 6 games less than LeBron, same difference between Dirk (81)and Wade (75)in 2006, that throws your argument out of the window.
Really, there is no conssistency in your picks other than your opinion of who played better, and based on that you really have no leg to stand on against the Dirk pick.

[mysticbb]

Well, I count the playoffs twice as heavily as the regular season. Still, a close year all around.

Ok, then:

Nowitzki: 27.6 PER, 0.270 WS/48
Wade: 27.3 PER, 0.239 WS/48
Bryant: 26.7 PER, 0.202 WS/48
James: 26.8 PER, 0.206 WS/48

Looks to me as Nowitzki wins in 2006, when we value playoffs twice as much as regular season, but you had Bryant, Wade and James ahead of Nowitzki.

Ah, when Dirk is better, he's just better. When LeBron is better, there are rational justifications for it.

There are rational justifications for Nowitzki being better at that stuff than James, we can even see that in the result of the teams when they play with and without said players. I provided the data for that already.

James: 25.9 PER, 0.227 WS/48
Nowitzki: 24.1 PER, 0.212 WS/48

James is clearly better in PER; but Nowitzki makes it MUCH MORE closer in WS/48.

So, can I take it that you are basing this just off of boxscore stats? Or do you take impact evaluation via +/- numbers into account?

Very nice, I understand psychologists love that kind of stuff. For the shrinks out there (oops sorry, I know those guys don't like to be confused with psychiatrists)

Maybe you need some of those to actual fix your communication problems?

, why would there be such a huge divergence in their PERs? What is the justification- that ultimately explains away and favors Dirk- for that, I wonder.

So, it is solely based upon PER? Nothing else matters? In that case I ask why Bryant was ahead of Nowitzki in 2007 too? Based on your "playoffs twice as much value":

Nowitzki: 26.6 PER, 0.256 WS/48
Bryant: 25.9 PER, 0.190 WS/48


Well, again you came up with not a good enough explanation to make your voting look consistent. Thus SRV is still correct.