2012 NBA Draft

[closg00]

What about John Jenkins as a 2nd round acquisition? He's an undersized shooting guard who is pretty much the best shooter in college basketball. He leads the NCAA's in 3P's made and shoots 44% from the 3-point range. He's the type of guy who might have a hard time carving out playing time on an ordinary roster, but could fit well alongside Wall because Wall can guard shooting guards.

Fits the bill, might not last til our 2nd round pick though.

[kirubel94]

Robbie Hummel is a player i would definitely draft in the second round, hes a shooter and can really help Wall in the pick-roll situations .
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... bie-hummel

[theboomking]

What about John Jenkins as a 2nd round acquisition? He's an undersized shooting guard who is pretty much the best shooter in college basketball. He leads the NCAA's in 3P's made and shoots 44% from the 3-point range. He's the type of guy who might have a hard time carving out playing time on an ordinary roster, but could fit well alongside Wall because Wall can guard shooting guards.

I think Doron Lambmay be the better shooter. He is making .491 from 3 point range on more than 4 attempts per game. Lamb is shooting .474 from the floor and .830 from the line and is listed at 6'4" and 210.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

What about John Jenkins as a 2nd round acquisition? He's an undersized shooting guard who is pretty much the best shooter in college basketball. He leads the NCAA's in 3P's made and shoots 44% from the 3-point range. He's the type of guy who might have a hard time carving out playing time on an ordinary roster, but could fit well alongside Wall because Wall can guard shooting guards.

nate, I like Jenkins a lot. Posted this about him a while back. See below the quote for an update.

In this upcoming draft, I think a few guys are really underrated.

John Jenkins of Vanderbilt is going to be a big time shooter/scorer.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ins-1.html

Jenkins is a great pure shooter, has a good handle, is a good defender, and has led the SEC in scoring two straight years. Jenkins is 1st in NCAA made 3Pt shots. I believe he should be one guy the Wizards try to trade to get into round 1 to select. Jenkins is almost as cannot miss as it gets, literally. Every year I mention a guy who has talent to be a lottery pick, but who isn't a freak athlete. Jenkins is a basketball player who really has lottery pick skill level (see Jeremy Lin).

Damian Lillard of Weber State is likely the most underrated player in the draft.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ard-1.html

Number one in the NCAA in points per game (25.5). Lillard is also first in the NCAA in PER. He leads his team (or is close) in rebounds as a 6'1" or so guard. He is seventh in the NCAA in 3PT% (.463). Plays at Webber State, otherwise he would get more ink. He seems to be a Kemba Walker type, but a better shooter from deep.

Kevin Jones of West Virginia is the Big East's version of Marshon Brooks, this year. He came out of nowhere to have a MONSTER senior season. If I were to stick to the way I usually do things, strictly trusting the numbers, I would say that Kevin Jones is on the same level as a prospect than Jared Sullinger.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... nes-5.html

Looking as rebounding, PER, and Win Share he is right up there atop the NCAA leader board along with Sullinger. What I love about Kevin Jones is he's a monster on the defensive glass.

I wish I could really spend some time on this, but this is enough for now. This draft is beyond rich in PFs. Haven't mentioned Ricardo Ratliffe, Arnett Moultrie, or Cody Zeller as underrated but they are IMO.

Also, tonight I am going to watch Hawaii play Nevada. The Warriors have a PF/C from Angola, Vander Joaquim, who is starting to show some serious potential.

UPDATE: I like to go strictly by stats/results and not by what I see. Jenkins is a little undersized, not that athletic, and appears to be really thick-legged. He doesn't look like an NBA prospect. Also, for as accurate as his three-point shooting is, he puts a lot of back spin on the ball. That said, dude gets it done. When I watched Vandy play a couple games, I actually SAW athleticism in Jeffrey Taylor and Festus Ezeli. Taylor is explosive and fluid and seems like an NBA player. Ezeli is huge and quick and agile.

As for Jenkins, I think he's a very safe second round pick. I would definitely move Singleton to get a shooter in this draft. However, I think I would opt for Damian Lillard over Jenkins on that moving up scenario. Jenkins needs screens and doesn't seem as quick as Redick to me.

One draft site seems to think Jenkins can be a pretty good PG/SG at times.

http://hoopprospect.com/2012/01/27/scou ... n-jenkins/

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Robbie Hummel is a player i would definitely draft in the second round, hes a shooter and can really help Wall in the pick-roll situations .
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... bie-hummel

Hummel is an EXCELLENT suggestions, kirubel94.

He has the same type credentials John Leuer had. Big Ten players who both played very well but had injury problems. Hummel's team at Purdue had both JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore go to the Celtics. When Hummel was healthy, they led the Big Ten and were a top team.

Hummel can also defend the pick-and-roll well. The best thing about him is if he is medically cleared, he's probably going to be better physically next season. Just like Leuer, the guy is a solid pro if healthy.

[80sballboy]

Robbie Hummel is a player i would definitely draft in the second round, hes a shooter and can really help Wall in the pick-roll situations .
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... bie-hummel

Hummel is an EXCELLENT suggestions, kirubel94.

He has the same type credentials John Leuer had. Big Ten players who both played very well but had injury problems. Hummel's team at Purdue had both JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore go to the Celtics. When Hummel was healthy, they led the Big Ten and were a top team.

Hummel can also defend the pick-and-roll well. The best thing about him is if he is medically cleared, he's probably going to be better physically next season. Just like Leuer, the guy is a solid pro if healthy.

Robbie Hummel should be a FA. Nobody is going to draft a slow, unathetic wing who has had two major knee surgeries.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Draymond Green seems like a good guy for the Wizards to look at.

http://www.msuspartans.com/sports/m-bas ... ond00.html

Possesses strong leadership qualities, one of the best of Tom Izzo's coaching tenure • His best skills are his versatility and high basketball IQ • Ability to score inside or outside, having worked to extend his shooting range • Very skilled passer • Strong rebounder • Very tough player • Enters his senior season 70 rebounds shy of the Michigan State career Top 10 in rebounding • Tallied 18 career double-doubles and two career triple-doubles • Ranks eighth in career blocks (81).

Green posted a near-triple double today. Michigan State is surging. He's been one of the best players in the Big Ten. I know he plays good defense, coming from four years in Michigan State.

Draymond Green would be very good early second round pick. I like him as much as Jenkins as a pretty sure thing at the next level. He will be a good defender and will likely be able to score at the next level because he is strong on the boards.

http://hoopshype.com/rumors/tag/draymond_green

Green is probably smart enough to play big guard or small forward, like Matt Barnes and Artest can occasionally do. He can defend well and pass the ball, which enables him to play SG even though he's a SF. He's a Bruce Bowen, potentially, at the next level. Green is a scrapper and the type guy that Wall needs to play with. He's like Booker in a SF, but probably a better overall talent IMHO.

[theboomking]

As much as I want to root for us to take Kidd-Gilchrist over Barnes given the opportunity, I'm not reaally sure I can stand to watch us add a high lotto pick, and maybe defend at the 3 and rebound a bit better, but still field a team that can't shoot and can't space the floor. If we want to build around Wall and Gilchrist, we should really add Ryan Anderson so our 4 can space the floor, and try to add a very high quality 2 guard that can shoot. All of that being said, watch Kidd Gilcrist's dunk below. I knew he could jump, but Gilchrist jumped from soooo far out and stuffed the ball with two hands right over the kid from Portland. Really, almost Blake Griffin-esque.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GVsrGQiBWc[/youtube]

[SUPERBALLMAN]

theboomking


I keep coming back to Barnes. He's not the most exciting pick, but he sure fills a major need for this team. He'd be a real nice fit at SF, and I like what I've seen as far as his demeanor & work ethic.

I like Robinson, but not if he's 6-7. Same with Sullinger. MKG concerns me with his lack of a shot. I also think T.Jones is being a bit overlooked possibly, although he is probably too much of a "tweener".

[pancakes3]

I think Doron Lamb may be the better shooter. He is making .491 from 3 point range on more than 4 attempts per game. Lamb is shooting .474 from the floor and .830 from the line and is listed at 6'4" and 210.

It's really lucky for us that Doron is ranked so low on the boards because really I don't see a difference between him and the higher ranked sg's like J. Lamb, Rivers, or the kid from Syracuse - Waiters. Taking "other-Lamb" with a 2nd rounder would be a huge windfall for us.

[doclinkin]

We have the Dallas 2nd round pick as well (though we may lose our 2nd rounder to them, you know, if we go on a tear and finish top 5 in the league). If we still need a shooter, right now it looks like Hollis Thompson would be available at that spot. I like him as a smooth no-mistake perimeter gunner. He's definitely got NBA range.

I agree we need smarts, rebounding, shooting; we need an infusion of competitive fire as well. But ultimately we have sincere needs up and down the roster. We can afford to take Best Player Available at every spot on the court.

Best 'Player', not Best 'Talent'-- distinct from Ernie's usual method. While I'm gratified to see the success of JLin and other picks tabbed by our collective brain trust, I get frustrated that savvy and court awareness are rarely weighed as a measure of a player's overall 'talent'. Do they understand the game? Do they want to play? Most importantly to they hate hate hate hate hate to lose? Given a baseline of athleticism, these things will take a player farther than an extra inch or two of height and a half inch vert.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

doclinkin, I like Draymond Green to fit the bill as a tough, no-nonsense player. I also like Jae Crowder. Here are a couple guys out there that aren't getting hype, but may be legit NBA prospect:

Tim Frazier, G, Penn State

He leads the Big Ten in assists, free throws, free throw attempts, usage, and is second in steals. Although he is a 6'1" PG, he leads his team in scoring and rebounding. This is the same kind of player as Norris Cole and Lester Hudson, who didn't quite make it but had game. I like his defensive potential and the fact that he does it in a very tough conference.

http://www.thesportsbank.net/college-bb ... potential/

“He’s done it all year in ways that, you know, unfortunately we can’t even talk about – in the locker room, his work ethic,” Penn State coach Patrick Chambers said of Frazier who posted his fifth double-double of the season. “I know he can give us more. I know how much better he can get. Which is scary. He’s only going to continue to get better, because he’s humble and he’s hungry. His mom has done a great job with him.”

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ier-1.html

Jorge Gutierrez, G, Cal

http://www.dixonsreverseauctions.co.uk/ ... rez-20736/

Jorge Gutierrez is a nasty player in a good way. He is a Mexican immigrant who came to the US at age 15. Very hard worker who plays every game like it is his last. Gutierrez plays very feisty defense. He has defended guys like Klay Thompson, Tony Wroten, Terrence Ross, etc in the Pac 10. He can probably defend NBA SGs reasonably well, too. Most of all, he has a refuse to lose attitude. He wanted to fight Thomas Robinson earlier this year when Cal lost to Kansas.

http://www.nbadraftdepot.com/2011/02/dr ... errez.html

For Gutierrez -- Cal's floor-diving, ponytail-wearing and backcourt-terrorizing point guard -- the bruises tell stories of charges taken, loose balls corralled and elbows swung, the small on-court tussles he's sought on his way to becoming one of the toughest players in college basketball.

"He's a guy that will do anything you need him to do," Cal coach Mike Montgomery said of Gutierrez. "He's as tough a kid as there is. He's stubborn, and he's a hard worker, and you can't tell him that he can't do something, because he's going to do all he can to prove you wrong."

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... z1mwiPHtn1

I think the Wizards needs to clear out guys who don't compete and replace them with guys who do.

[Ruzious]

doclinkin, I like Draymond Green to fit the bill as a tough, no-nonsense player. I also like Jae Crowder. Here are a couple guys out there that aren't getting hype, but may be legit NBA prospect:

Big yes on Crowder; I'm inclined to say no on Green. Crowder's a guy I went over a couple of months ago - saying he looks a little like a smaller Faried (hairstyle-wise, anyway) - so I thought you'd like him. He's odd-sized at about 6'6 235, so basketball "experts" get confused as to how does he fit. Well, he does pretty much everything well, so there's got to be a way to make him fit, imo. I could manage to find a use for someone who shoots well from inside and out, passes real well, rebounds, and defends. He's the latest greatest model in the tough Marquette swingman series. Remember Mario Elie - who was a valued role player on some really good teams - he reminds me of him.

[doclinkin]

I like Jae Crowder too, in the TBooker mold of all-out baller, but with a bit of range on his shot. A ton of scrappy to his game. We do need to add players with legit proven NBA caliber skills and not just to corner the market on feisty tweeners. But I'm a sucker for hard-hustling battlers. And with an extra pick in round two you can afford to take a guy into training camp and hope he seizes a roster spot like a terrier and shakes it to death, forces you to stick with him.

Long range shooting and rebounding are two skills that often seem to make the jump to the NBA. I commonly hunt for prospects by looking for teams that post good stats in a category, then backtrack to see which player is most significant on that team. You can find some hidden gems there to keep an eye on (KFaried two years ago, Stef Curry as a freshman, Andre Roberson last year though I'd love to snatch him somehow if he came out this year).

This year I was intrigued by the Buffalo Bulls topping the NCAAs in rebounding, wondering who was responsible: team effort or a prodigy? They have a late-blooming Big just growing into man size in Mitchell 'Swat' Watt, playing next to an undersized werebeast Javon McCray. Interestingly they eat into each others rebound totals, each averaging only 7 or so-- but if you check the statlines on a given game they ricochet between double digits and lesser postings, and if you flip-flop between the two you see any single-digit rebounding day for one corresponds with a 13 or 14 board effort by the other.

Watt is a senior, I'll be curious to see how he registers at the PIT. I like his statlines, hitting high 30'%s from three (more than one a game) 70+% at the stripe, 3 blocks, a few assists -- evidence of high ball smarts.

[Severn Hoos]

Lamb (Jeremy) with a huge game tonight - 32 points in an OT win, with no other teammates in double figures. I still have some concerns about him - and definitely not happy with the way the team has responded this year - but I do think he will be a good pro SG.

Draft stock seems to be all over the board, but I suspect he's got to be top 10 at worst. Still, I'd love to add him if there was a way to get a second pick and somehow leverage up high enough to add JLamb.

[truwizfan4evr]

Can someone answer my question? For the wizards to get a top 4 or 5 pick locked down. Do we have to have a top 3 worst record in nba at the end of the season? Can anyone tell me how the nba draft lottery works?

[Severn Hoos]

Can someone answer my question? For the wizards to get a top 4 or 5 pick locked down. Do we have to have a top 3 worst record in nba at the end of the season? Can anyone tell me how the nba draft lottery works?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

1.250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2.199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3.156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4.119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5.88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6.63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7.43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8.28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9.17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10.11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11.8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12.7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13.6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14.5 combinations, 0.5% chance


When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures each team that it can drop no more than three spots from its projected draft position.

So the only way to guarantee a top 4 pick is to ave the worst record, to guarantee a top 5 pick, have to have the 2nd worst record, etc.

The link has a very helpful chart showing the likelihood of each oucome based on slots resuting from the record. Interestingly, the most likely outcome for the team with the 2nd worst record is to pick 4th. Kind of depressing, actually.

On the other hand, if you believe the Lottery is rigged.....

[Nivek]

It's amusing to think that the draft lottery was started as a means to reduce the incentive for tanking. The problem, of course, is that ANY system that awards the highest draft picks to teams with the worst records incentivizes tanking. Is "incentivizes" even a word? Probably not. Anyway...

I'm not sure what kind of system the league could institute. In football, tanking hasn't been much of an issue because no single player can typically transform the fortunes of a team. In basketball, if you can get a Lebron, you're a title contender.

Probably the simplest solution would be to give every team that misses the playoffs an equal shot at the top pick. A 43-win team that barely misses the 8th seed would then be on equal footing with a 20-win team that lost 16 in a row to end the season. There's a slight tank incentive for that mediocre team fighting for an 8th seed, but the financial benefits of making the playoffs would likely outweigh the urge to tank.

If that's a concern, I could see adding the 7th and 8th seeds from each conference to the draft lottery. I could also see giving EVERY team an equal shot at the top pick, which would really discourage tanking.

[no D in Hibachi]

The only problem with that, Nivek, is it basically crushes the hopes of small market teams that are struggling. If teams like the Kings or Hornets have 3-4 seasons in a row like they're having now AND don't even have the hope of high lotto picks the fans would become so apathetic it'd widen the gap even further between the haves and have nots.

Heck, even large market teams that stink only have the hopes of the lotto...i.e. Washington. Let's say the Lakers barely miss the playoffs this year and Washington ends up with the 2nd worst record, but the Lakers win the lotto and Washington picks 14. Where is the justice in that? One to two seasons of that and Washington professional basketball will become less relevant than Maryland Terrapin football.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sev, looking at those odds, IMO the Wizards will end up with between a 12 to 25% shot at Anthony Davis. That is not good enough IMO to even begin to get hopes up. With the Wizards having lucked out in 2010 to pick first, even though the odds are the same I just don't see Washington getting Anthony Davis without acquiring another lottery team's #1 draft pick. It is likely not going to happen.

Orlando got "lucky" (or the lottery was rigged) years ago when they got Shaq followed by Webber (who they traded for the rights to Penny Hardaway). I just don't see it happening again. I think Washington, having picked Kwame in 2001 and Wall in 2010 already had its share of luck in the lottery.

NBA Overall #1 Selections by Team

Code: Select all

 2011   Kyrie Irving    Cleveland
2010   John Wall       Washington
2009   Blake Griffin   Los Angeles Clippers
2008   Derrick Rose    Chicago   
2007   Greg Oden       Portland   
2006   Andrea Bargnani   Toronto   
2005   Andrew Bogut    Milwaukee   
2004   Dwight Howard   Orlando   
2003   LeBron James    Cleveland   
2002   Yao Ming        Houston   
2001   Kwame Brown     Washington
2000   Kenyon Martin   New Jersey Nets
1999   Elton Brand     Chicago Bulls   
1998   Michael Olowokandi  Los Angeles Clippers
1997   Tim Duncan   San Antonio
1996   Allen Iverson  Philadelphia
1995   Joe Smith       Golden State
1994   Glenn Robinson Milwaukee
1993   Chris Webber    Orlando
1992   Shaquille O'Neal   Orlando
1991   Larry Johnson   Charlotte
1990   Derrick Coleman   New Jersey
1989   Pervis Ellison  Sacramento
1988   Danny Manning     L.A. Clippers
1987   David Robinson     San Antonio
1986   Brad Daugherty     Cleveland   
1985   Patrick Ewing    New York   

With this in mind, I think the Wizards should strongly consider a rapid rebuild and trade of the top pick to get a great veteran cast.

Guys like Thomas Robinson, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Brad Beal, Jeremy Lamb, and Jared Sullinger will IMO become very good NBA players. I am probably just biased against Harrison Barnes, and perhaps he will, too. However, I do not think they will bring immediate returns any faster than some picks that will be found in mid round one and early round two.

--Kevin Jones, Jae Crowder, Scott Machado, Arnett Moultrie, John Jenkins, Damian Lillard, Mike Scott, and the guys doclinkin mentioned above should approximate the productivity of all but the top 3 or 4 picks. I would prefer the Wizards draft somebody like them Cody Zeller or Tyler Zeller and somebody like Ricardo Ratliff or those I mentioned; IF they can trade the pick to jettison Blatche and Rashard Lewis.

A much smarter way to do business is how the Spurs currently build, but using the D-League and optimal round two picks, IMO.

Washington could fill some pressing needs at SG/SF in the D-League and they would be really smart to try to get Pau Gasol any way they can. I read a lot about not trading the pick and mortgaging the future, but if the Wizards keep drafting guys who are college underclassmen their future will remain selecting in the lottery.

This season, they won't get the top pick. I think Sullinger or Robinson could be game changers, but looking at guys like Faried and Ilyasova, I think trades and free agency are better options than adding young guys. I think GETTING RID OF BLATCHE, LEWIS, YOUNG, CRAWFORD, and probably SINGLETON is what this team should do.

Year after year I feel like I know who the Wizards should draft. They never do what I want, but I think they should.