2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[nate33]

Another sub-40% FG day from TRob. I really don't see ho he'll be an offensive factor in the NBA. And no one here is promoting him for his defensive prowess, from what I can tell. He just looks like a high-motor rebounding machine who is too undersized to affect shots, and with a limited offensive game. Kind of an upper-middle class man's Booker, if you will.

Go ahead and check the game logs - is there a single game where he had a strong offensive showing against an NBA-caliber big man? (the game against Ohio St. doesn't count because Sullinger didn't play.)

I don't see Robinson as being the kind of guy who can be a focal point of an offense. When he gets the ball in the paint, and he is being guarded by a bigger player, with help defense coming over, he has trouble scoring. On the other hand, when he gets the ball and has the space to face up from 15 feet, he often blows by guys. I was also impressed to see him hit the three ball. I think Robinson is the kind of player who will do better in the NBA than in college because of the better spacing and the lack of double teams.

I think a rich man's Booker is a good comparison. But then, a rich man's Booker is basically Al Horford.

[Severn Hoos]

If that wasn't entirely rhetorical this year he's had games of 10/21 and 11/17 FG against Missouri this year as well as a 6/11 and 11/18 games against Baylor, a 7/11 game against UCLA and a 7/14 game against Georgetown.

Conversely Bradley Beal has had 5/15 and 1/10 games against Kentucky, a 4/12 game against Alabama, 2/9 game against Syracuse and 6/16 game against Ohio State.

Now both of those are shamefully cherry picked samples and I'm not making any meaningful point about either player or about the two in comparison so much as I'm saying it is harder to play well against really good teams.

Thanks, Ed - not entirely rhetorical, and yet in a way you made my argument for me

Mizzou runs 4 Guards for the most part - Robinson spent a lot of time matched up against Kim English. Not exactly Tim Duncan, if you know what I mean. And UCLA has...um...wait a minute, I'll think of it....

Without watching the tape, I'm not sure who he'd be matched up against vs. Baylor - maybe PJ3? And I guess G'town is kind of impressive, I haven't paid much attention to them lately.

Whereas against Henson, Plumlee(s), Davis, Royce White, he struggles to get to 45%.

An important rule of draft strategy is not to be fooled by overall stats from a guy who runs up numbers against against inferior competition. And again - Robinson's rebounding numbers are rock solid against the best. But his shooting numbers stink when the competition gets tough.

In any event, I'll be very interested to see the game on Saturday. I suspect Sullinger (the Buckeye's C) will start out matched against Withey, but TRob & Sully should have their share of time going mano a mano.

EDIT: nate, I tend to agree with your assessment (but I wouldn't put him in Horford's class). So the question stands: would you pick a "Rich man's Booker" in the top 5?

[nate33]

EDIT: nate, I tend to agree with your assessment (but I wouldn't put him in Horford's class). So the question stands: would you pick a "Rich man's Booker" in the top 5?

Yes.

Trevor Booker averages 12 points and 9 boards per 36 while playing real good man D and real good team D except when dealing with a significant size disparity. A rich man's Booker would get get you 13 and 11 per 36 minutes with good D and no defensive mismatches. In time, he'll hone his jumper (as most big men with work ethic tend to do) and get his scoring average up to 15 or so. In this league, 15 and 11 with good D is a borderline all star PF.

[hands11]

Unfortunately the most impressive prospect in NCAA basketball right now is probably Brittney Griner- 6 foot 8, 7-4 wingspan, and 9-2 standing reach, which I think would be higher than anyone on the Wizards right now.

Not to mention she broke someone's nose in a game last year for trying to get too physical underneath- a la Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in his younger days.

Too bad there is not an equivalent talent right now on the men's side... you could say mabey Andre Drummond approaches that physically, but he is not out there dropping 35 and 10 (not to mention 9 of 11 from the free throw line) like Griner did last game.

Interesting. Womens basketball is getting better all the time.

How much longer before you see a women playing in the NBA? Will it ever happen ?

[nate33]

How much longer before you see a women playing in the NBA? Will it ever happen ?

No.

I'll reference Phil Jackson:

The Zen Master vehemently disagrees with David Stern’s prediction that a woman could play in the L within the next 10 years. And it all stems from a game that took place decades ago: “When Jackson ran a youth basketball camp in Montana early in his coaching career, he recalls pitting a state champion high school girls team against a group of middle-school boys who had never played together. The outcome of the game was so one-sided in favor of the boys that it has stuck in Jackson’s mind ever since. ‘(The girls) were all four to six inches bigger than these boys, and they got beat by 40 points,’ Jackson said. ‘It was one of those things that opened my eyes to the differences. Even though the girls had skill and knowledge as a group and the boys hadn’t played together, they just trapped and pressed and did all kinds of things that changed the game … That’s not going to happen,’ he said. Without a doubt, women’s basketball has made great strides, but I can’t see it in 10 years. I think the boys are going to increase as much as the women do in those 10 years. That’s the way we’re evolving.’”

[go'stags]

Keep in mind, Robinsons struggles has been without a consistent jumper. He has definitely shown the form and some promising signs (that 3 was a thing of beauty) but for the most part he cannot use it as a weapon. A couple offseasons worth of honing that jumper could make him around a 20 PPG scorer IMO. He either hits the jumper or goes around you, plus he can pick and pop or pick and roll. Everything I have read has said he has a greta work ethic, and if he makes the open jumpers that he created for himself (or were cearted by Taylor) then his shooting percentages go through the roof. I'm still very high on Robinson.

[omegatronic3]

Put me on the MKG bandwagon for sure! Hes the guy i was most impressed with in the last 2 kentucky games. He has a major knack for finishing around the rim. Today he showed a good stroke as well.

I see him as w 2 guard in the pros and a Wall / MKG backcourt would be pretty awesome. To me the only question on his game is if he can hit the 3 consistently but he has everything else.

Davis is a beast but I dont think he has super explosiveness. He has such rediculous length he doesnt need hops but he doesnt really get too high above the rim. davis is rail thin so itll be interesting to see what position he plays in the pros..is he a 4 or 5 . I see him as Tayshawn Prince with a little more upside. Davis definitely shows offensive potential and a nice stroke so I think when he gets to the pros hell show more.

For me though we need a 2 guard more than anything..we got a bench full of 3s and 4s but we dont have a 2 guard other than tweaners.

[closg00]

+1 I am starting to lean MKG also if we can't get Davis.

[Ruzious]

At this point, I think Robinson and MKG have established themselves as top 3 picks. I love Beal's overall game, but MKG's talent - even with questions about his jump shot - is just too overwhelming. Robinson's shooting percentage may not be good in the tournament, but his effect on the games has been ginormous. Withey gets open shots all game because Robinson is double-teamed all game long, and the top big defender is always on Robinson. Kansas guards get open looks because their man has to think about doubling (or trippling) down on Robinson. Replace Robinson with an average college PF, and Kansas is a very ordinary team. Kentucky would still be great without MKG, but there's no denying he's a great talent who plays hard. When he has games where he's hitting his jump shot, it makes you think... wow, he's an NBA star. Will he do it consistently? Maybe.

[Ruzious]

Put me on the MKG bandwagon for sure! Hes the guy i was most impressed with in the last 2 kentucky games. He has a major knack for finishing around the rim. Today he showed a good stroke as well.

I see him as w 2 guard in the pros and a Wall / MKG backcourt would be pretty awesome. To me the only question on his game is if he can hit the 3 consistently but he has everything else.

Davis is a beast but I dont think he has super explosiveness. He has such rediculous length he doesnt need hops but he doesnt really get too high above the rim. davis is rail thin so itll be interesting to see what position he plays in the pros..is he a 4 or 5 . I see him as Tayshawn Prince with a little more upside. Davis definitely shows offensive potential and a nice stroke so I think when he gets to the pros hell show more.

For me though we need a 2 guard more than anything..we got a bench full of 3s and 4s but we dont have a 2 guard other than tweaners.

Well, Prince as a senior, was much skinnier looking than Davis was as freshman. That's why Prince wasn't picked very high. And as for your comment that Davis doesn't get up high, I don't think you'll find many observers agreeing with you.

And at about 230 lbs, I suppose it's possible, but I don't see MKG as a guard. If anything, he's more PF than guard. I'm not sure it's a good idea to make him learn a new position.

[nate33]

Robinson's shooting percentage may not be good in the tournament, but his effect on the games has been ginormous. Withey gets open shots all game because Robinson is double-teamed all game long, and the top big defender is always on Robinson. Kansas guards get open looks because their man has to think about doubling (or trippling) down on Robinson. Replace Robinson with an average college PF, and Kansas is a very ordinary team.

Preach, brother!

This is what I was trying to say a while back and you said it so much succinctly. Forget the stats. Robinson is a major force out there. He dominates the ball game with his presence. He is always working so hard to establish deep post position or grab the offensive board. Opposing teams have to devote so much attention to containing him.

[closg00]

Let's all hope that Barnes is not the "concensus" pick for the Wiz staff this-year, he couldn't be at this-point. Worst-case looks like Beal for us.

1. Davis

Picks 2 4 in no particular order:

MKG - Robinson- Beal

If we get Robinson, Booker would make a nice trading-piece.

[dandrews]

The thing I like about MKG is that he does EVERYTHING great except shoot the ball. Lots of times the jump shot is the last thing prospects master, and at only 18 years old, he has so much time to do so.

Because he is great in every other aspect of the game, if he starts hitting shots he's almost guaranteed to be an all nba candidate.

[Ruzious]

The thing I like about MKG is that he does EVERYTHING great except shoot the ball. Lots of times the jump shot is the last thing prospects master, and at only 18 years old, he has so much time to do so.

Because he is great in every other aspect of the game, if he starts hitting shots he's almost guaranteed to be an all nba candidate.

I almost agree, but I don't think he's proven as a passer/playmaker. I think that sticks out statistically when a guy like Terrance Jones - who has a rep for being selfish - gets 6 assists and 2 to's, while MKG gets 1 assist to 3 to's.

[pcbothwel]

Let's all hope that Barnes is not the "concensus" pick for the Wiz staff this-year, he couldn't be at this-point. Worst-case looks like Beal for us.

1. Davis

Picks 2 4 in no particular order:

MKG - Robinson- Beal

If we get Robinson, Booker would make a nice trading-piece.

In a nutshell, I agree with that. i said a couple weeks ago that Barnes would make or break himself in the tourney...and he broke himself. I knew his handles were not that great but man his first step is extreamly slow. I am a huge UNC and Barnes fan, but i am turning that page and moving him behind
Davis...Robinson/MKG/Beal

This compacted end-of-season schedule is gonna crush us and I dont see how we dont get a top 4 pick.

[FAH1223]

I'm on the Robinson/MKG wagon. I'd be happy with either and I think MKG may develop his shot faster than people think because he has the work ethic and intangibles this team needs. Robinson also has intangibles and he has an NBA body right now and will be able to come in and play well with Nene and Seraphin right off the bat.

[Ruzious]

Let's all hope that Barnes is not the "concensus" pick for the Wiz staff this-year, he couldn't be at this-point. Worst-case looks like Beal for us.

1. Davis

Picks 2 4 in no particular order:

MKG - Robinson- Beal

If we get Robinson, Booker would make a nice trading-piece.

In a nutshell, I agree with that. i said a couple weeks ago that Barnes would make or break himself in the tourney...and he broke himself. I knew his handles were not that great but man his first step is extreamly slow. I am a huge UNC and Barnes fan, but i am turning that page and moving him behind
Davis...Robinson/MKG/Beal

This compacted end-of-season schedule is gonna crush us and I dont see how we dont get a top 4 pick.

Barnes' play has been strange. Going in to the season, everyone agreed he was a great long-distance shooter who had to show he could drive. Well, he really hasn't been a great deep shooter - he hasn't even been good. He's a very good shooter out to 18 feet, but that doesn't get you anywhere in the NBA. And yesterday, he was driving - making some good moves... but he didn't finish. He blew layups several times. So, I guess there's reason to believe that he can develop into more than a jump-shooter, but... now there's doubt that he's even a productive jump-shooter. He's in no-man's land right now. But the talent is there.

[nate33]

This compacted end-of-season schedule is gonna crush us and I dont see how we dont get a top 4 pick.

Don't forget that Drummond will probably go in the top 4 as well, so we really only need a top 5 pick to get one of our guys.

[Severn Hoos]

OK, I've been in the tank for Sullinger, so I can't pretend to be unbiased, but this is what I keep hearing:

If Robinson works hard, he should be able to develop a good jumper - like Sullinger has.
That three pointer pointer yesterday was nice, maybe in time he could develop range - like Sullinger has.
If he really dedicates himself to FTs, maybe he can up his FT% a hundred or so points - to where Sullinger is.
If Kansas had an ordinary PF, there's no way they'd be in the Final Four. Just like OSU and Sullinger.
In the NBA, Robinson won't see those double teams that he has in college - just like Sullinger has.
If Robinson were to go back to school, he could prove that he's not just a one-year phenomenon, that he can do it again at the highest level - like Sullinger has.
Oh, and Sullinger's a year younger....

Look, I get it - and I too have concerns about Sullinger. The two primary ones are injuries and foul trouble. But IMO, he has been much more productive in college than Robinson, especially when you consider that he's done it for two years with no help inside. Truth be told, I think that people overlook Sullinger because of his physique (and are mesmerized by Robinson for the same reason).

Robinson will be a good pro, and will definitely contribute. But if you're expecting even a Horford-sized impact, I think you'll be disappointed. And for those who don't want to "settle" with a top 3 pick and think Robinson will be a game-changer in the NBA (multiple All-Star), you may be surprised a few years down the road.

[Severn Hoos]

EDIT: nate, I tend to agree with your assessment (but I wouldn't put him in Horford's class). So the question stands: would you pick a "Rich man's Booker" in the top 5?

Yes.

Trevor Booker averages 12 points and 9 boards per 36 while playing real good man D and real good team D except when dealing with a significant size disparity. A rich man's Booker would get get you 13 and 11 per 36 minutes with good D and no defensive mismatches. In time, he'll hone his jumper (as most big men with work ethic tend to do) and get his scoring average up to 15 or so. In this league, 15 and 11 with good D is a borderline all star PF.

15 & 11 is a lot more than "borderline" for a PF, even without considering the defensive side.

In the past 4 years, there have been a total of 10 seasons where a PF has averaged 15 & 11 while playing at least 50 games. Here is the list:

Blake Griffin
Kevin Love
Zach Randolph (2x)
Carlos Boozer
Pau Gasol
David Lee (2x)
Tim Duncan
Al Jefferson

It just doesn't happen very often. And there's no way Robinson will ever have the offensive game that those guys do.

One interesting point in Sullinger's favor: There are at least four analogous players to Sullinger on that list in Love, Boozer, Randolph, and Jefferson. Considering Lee is sometimes looked at as unathletic (wonder why) and a defensive liability, he's subject to some of the same criticisms Sullinger is.

And yet, the majority of players meeting this criteria more closely resemble Sullinger than anyone else in college basketball. Just sayin....