Nick Young traded to Clippers/McGee to Denver/Nene to DC

[montestewart]

Thanks nate33, that answers a lot of questions. I thought the offense looked OK much of the time since the trade, the loss of dynamic McGee and Young offset by strengthened post scoring of Nene and Seraphin, and Crawford filling the Young role. So it's mostly just playing a slower pace but scoring at about the same rate.

I'm tired of our creaky offense, but adding some reliable scoring options in the right system, with an offseason and full preseason, I can see that stepping up. The improved defense is perhaps evidence (finally) of a gradually altered mindset.

[JonathanJoseph]

Since the trade our D is only giving up 90.7 PPG on average and has only allowed 100+ once.

Pretty impressive. I don't know for sure but only allowing 90 a game probably puts us among the top Ds in the league.

Someone with a good spreadsheet could answer how that compares with pre-trade, especially with regard to opponent FG%, points per possession, and pace factor. They sure aren't playing as fast, and that might be exposing Wall's halfcourt weaknesses more, hence his really lousy play recently.

Pre-trade:
OffEff: 97.9
DefEff: 106.9

Post-trade:
OffEff: 97.6
DefEff: 98.9

If we just look at the games when Nene was in the lineup:
With Nene:
OffEff: 98.9
DefEff: 95.9

Note, these numbers don't include the Indy game, which appears to be in line with the general trend. OffEff and DefEff are points scored and points yielded per 100 possessions.

It's a blunt contrast. Singleton is getting more minutes and his defense is pretty solid and combined with Booker there are some really athletic defenders on the wing.

But the real difference is in the post.

Nene has proven to be a legitimate post presence on both ends of the floor and that is a massive upgrade. Anyone who has coached basketball will tell you that playing defense without a post presence is like a football team trying to defend the run without a DL. Getting rid of goofy Pierre and adding a real presence has changed the complexion of the entire defense. For this reason alone, Grunfeld probably scored pretty high for this trade.

IMO the sneaky big factor has been Seraphin's post defense. He has the strength and lateral quickness to match up with any post man in the game, save perhaps Dwight. Seraphin's post defense hasn't just been technically sound, he's been both a shot blocker and an enforcer and has added an element of much needed toughness. That toughness and attitude seems to be catching on with the rest of the team.

Both Nene and Seraphin have the athleticism to guard 4's and them playing together (with Singleton or Booker on the wing) has been suffocating defensively and the best Wizards basketball since Shaun Livingston and Andray Blatche were killing it (think about how sad that is).

[montestewart]

Seraphin looked so lost his first year, yet he always seemed to show the potential for tough post defense, and paid attention to and tried to execute proper footwork and positioning. Maybe on a better team it wouldn't have stood out, but compared to McGee and Blatche, it seemed kind of obvious.

[nate33]

Updated numbers to include the Indy game:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff 
With Nene     91.2    98.5    96.9   
After Trade   91.7    97.5    99.1   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   

[tontoz]

Very encouraging numbers. With TB/KS/Nene we have 3 bigs who are strong, mobile and committed to defense. That makes a huge difference in the overall defense because the opposing team isn't going to get easy points near the basket. They have to earn their points.

I expect this to be a huge factor in the W/L column next year once they get some more scoring. Offense comes and goes even for the best shooting teams but defense can be played well night in night out. A good defensive team can win games when their shots aren't falling.

The wing play on this team is awful but that isn't hard to upgrade.

[LyricalRico]

^ Wow, huge jump defensively. It's obvious when watching, but good to see that the metrics and the "eye test" tell the same story.

[Severn Hoos]

Updated numbers to include the Indy game:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff 
With Nene     91.2    98.5    96.9   
After Trade   91.7    97.5    99.1   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   

That's so weird, because the stats say they're very good (8th in the league?), and yet they're 1-4 in those games. I guess the blowout win over the Nets (+19 points) has more impact than the 4 close losses (combined -11 points).

This is why I think they're a playoff team next year if the draft wisely (top 5, don't blow it!), lose Lewis & Blatche, and sign a solid - if not all-star level - FA like Ilyasova, Rush, and/or Green.

[tontoz]

Updated numbers to include the Indy game:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff 
With Nene     91.2    98.5    96.9   
After Trade   91.7    97.5    99.1   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   

That's so weird, because the stats say they're very good (8th in the league?), and yet they're 1-4 in those games. I guess the blowout win over the Nets (+19 points) has more impact than the 4 close losses (combined -11 points).

This is why I think they're a playoff team next year if the draft wisely (top 5, don't blow it!), lose Lewis & Blatche, and sign a solid - if not all-star level - FA like Ilyasova, Rush, and/or Green.

Historically point differential is a pretty good predictor of a team's future record so yes a big win will have a big effect.

We also need to keep in mind we are talking about a small sample size.

[nate33]

Yes, it's a small sample size, but at least it's also a sample size full of respectable teams. The "with Nene" stretch includes two games against Indy, one against Atlanta, one against Detroit and one against NJ. That's 3 playoff teams and two non-playoff teams, and it incorporates a back-to-back-to-back.

I'd love for this to continue. We need to keep losing close games to playoff teams, and blow out a few non playoff teams. I'd like to be able to tout that we're a near-.500 ball club with Nene going by point differential, while also getting a top draft pick.

[Nivek]

Nate: What formula are you using to estimate possessions? League average pace as of last night's games is 91.3 possessions per 48 minutes. League average efficiency stands at 104.2. Here's a full 4-factors breakdown since the trade.

Code: Select all

STAT    JM      noJM
Pyt82   18.7    37.4
Pace    92.9    88.6
ortg    100.8   100.9
drtg    109.9   102.1
efg     .464    .478
defg    .504    .465
orb%    .273    .256
drb%    .696    .719
tov%    .156    .166
dtov%   .155    .155
ft/fga  .192    .170
dft/fga .231    .233


[nate33]

Nate: What formula are you using to estimate possessions? League average pace as of last night's games is 91.3 possessions per 48 minutes. League average efficiency stands at 104.2. Here's a full 4-factors breakdown since the trade.

Code: Select all

STAT    JM      noJM
Pyt82   18.7    37.4
Pace    92.9    88.6
ortg    100.8   100.9
drtg    109.9   102.1
efg     .464    .478
defg    .504    .465
orb%    .273    .256
drb%    .696    .719
tov%    .156    .166
dtov%   .155    .155
ft/fga  .192    .170
dft/fga .231    .233


I was using HoopData.

[tontoz]

Nate: What formula are you using to estimate possessions? League average pace as of last night's games is 91.3 possessions per 48 minutes. League average efficiency stands at 104.2. Here's a full 4-factors breakdown since the trade.

Code: Select all

STAT    JM      noJM
Pyt82   18.7    37.4
Pace    92.9    88.6
ortg    100.8   100.9
drtg    109.9   102.1
efg     .464    .478
defg    .504    .465
orb%    .273    .256
drb%    .696    .719
tov%    .156    .166
dtov%   .155    .155
ft/fga  .192    .170
dft/fga .231    .233


Interesting that defensive rebounding is up slightly. Maybe it's because Nick isn't playing the 3 any more.

[nate33]

Nate: What formula are you using to estimate possessions? League average pace as of last night's games is 91.3 possessions per 48 minutes. League average efficiency stands at 104.2. Here's a full 4-factors breakdown since the trade.

Code: Select all

STAT    JM      noJM
Pyt82   18.7    37.4
Pace    92.9    88.6
ortg    100.8   100.9
drtg    109.9   102.1
efg     .464    .478
defg    .504    .465
orb%    .273    .256
drb%    .696    .719
tov%    .156    .166
dtov%   .155    .155
ft/fga  .192    .170
dft/fga .231    .233


Interesting that defensive rebounding is up slightly. Maybe it's because Nick isn't playing the 3 any more.

Yup. Defensive eFG% allowed and drb% are up substantially. That's the difference in our D.

[JAR69]

Nate: What formula are you using to estimate possessions? League average pace as of last night's games is 91.3 possessions per 48 minutes. League average efficiency stands at 104.2. Here's a full 4-factors breakdown since the trade.

Code: Select all

STAT    JM      noJM
Pyt82   18.7    37.4
Pace    92.9    88.6
ortg    100.8   100.9
drtg    109.9   102.1
efg     .464    .478
defg    .504    .465
orb%    .273    .256
drb%    .696    .719
tov%    .156    .166
dtov%   .155    .155
ft/fga  .192    .170
dft/fga .231    .233


Interesting that defensive rebounding is up slightly. Maybe it's because Nick isn't playing the 3 any more.

Yup. Defensive eFG% allowed and drb% are up substantially. That's the difference in our D.

That deFG% would make us 5th in the league, behind only the Sixers, Celtics, Bulls, and Lakers.

[tontoz]

I knew teams were shooting worse but i wasn't expecting the defensive rebounding to get better without McGee. Mcgee was our best rebounder and Nene didn't play in all the games. I am guessing the 3 spot is where the difference lies since Nick wound up playing the 3 a lot in the 4th quarters.

[montestewart]

I knew teams were shooting worse but i wasn't expecting the defensive rebounding to get better without McGee. Mcgee was our best rebounder and Nene didn't play in all the games. I am guessing the 3 spot is where the difference lies since Nick wound up playing the 3 a lot in the 4th quarters.

Brian Cook's the Wizards' top defensive rebounder per 36. I think he's the difference.

[hegotgame132]

Did anyone else watch The Association: Denver Nuggets? Besides a pretty cool behind the scenes look at a front office during the trade deadline I caught something that might be of interest to us. At the 16:10 mark of this video nuggets GM Masia Ujiri says "so Washington, were getting close" and someone in the room responds with "which one do they want?" and he says Nene. This clearly shows that there were multiple options on the table and we decided to go with Nene, and Denver wasn't desperately trying to rid themselves of his contract due to concerns about his injuries etc.

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_t ... _full.nba/

[hands11]

Did anyone else watch The Association: Denver Nuggets? Besides a pretty cool behind the scenes look at a front office during the trade deadline I caught something that might be of interest to us. At the 16:10 mark of this video nuggets GM Masia Ujiri says "so Washington, were getting close" and someone in the room responds with "which one do they want?" and he says Nene. This clearly shows that there were multiple options on the table and we decided to go with Nene, and Denver wasn't desperately trying to rid themselves of his contract due to concerns about his injuries etc.

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_t ... _full.nba/

Great find. Thanks. That fills in some of the holes. Seems like EG got them when they were hungry to make a move.

[Dat2U]

Wow, that was really good. Seemed at least in the way they edited it that Javale was a late addition in the trade talks.

It was funny listening to Denver's GM on the phone reassuring Ernie (I assume it was Ernie) about making the deal.

[closg00]

I-too watched the Denver trade episode yesterday. One must consider the source of the show, it is official NBA product. Still, it was entertaining.

Who-knows how-many teams Denver tried to trade Nene to and same for the Wizards and JaVale. Ernie should have also gotten one of Denver's two 2nd round or a future 2nd pick for the deal.