Post#145 » by Ell Curry » Sat May 5, 2012 2:09 pm
Glen Rice shot over 55% all 4 seasons at Michigan. Barnes shot 42% as a frosh and 44% as a sophomore.
When I watched Barnes, I saw the size, co-ordination and athleticism to be a good scorer at the 3 in the NBA, but a non-factor in terms of rebounds, steals, blocks and man on man D. So, you're hoping for a Caron Butler or Glen Rice type lesser all star career. However, the guy would have to score much more efficiently in the pros than he did in college to be worth the 8th pick. He put up True Shooting marks of .52 and .528. That's ugly for a wing scoring prospect. Going by actual production, I'd say Barnes had the 2nd worst year of any lottery pick, goign by DraftExpress' mock. I was tempted to have him last, but Drummond, hit 29% of his FT's and barely touched the ball on offense and didn't rebound defensively very well, though preferring a 7 foot shot blocker who offensive rebounds well over an inefficient volume scorer is reasonable. Also, Barnes played big minutes on a good defensive team, which counts for something even when you're not the main reason why. Looking at the 1st round, I'd say, statistically, Barnes' year was probably like 23-24th best, with only Drummond, Austin Rivers, Marquis Teague, Royce White, Quincy Miller and Tony Wroten having less impressive seasons and Fournier not playing in the NCAA.
As a freshman, I get that a guy might take too many long 2's or struggle in the P+R or whatever. It happens to lots of guys, but it's hard to find a really successful NBA 3 who struggled as a sophomore like Barnes. Rudy Gay had similar scoring numbers, but higher rebound, steal and block rates. He also hit 50 percent of his shots inside the arc (Barnes was at 47) but struggled from 3 point land. Basically, he had a cold year from outside but was otherwise better, though not dramatically so (apart from blocks) across the board.
3 pt shooting doesn't always translate (these are 18-21 year old kids without finished jumpers in many cases and the line is different). But scoring inside the arc should. If you draft Barnes, you're hoping he makes the changes Josh Smith finally did the last couple years, realizing what's a good shot and what isn't. And Barnes might be taking the best shots he can get, rather than settling. I didn't watch enough UNC to speak on that. I could deal with him as the 8th pick, because he would have gone 2 or 3 after Wall and fighting with Evan Turner had he been able to enter the 2010 draft out of high school, and 70 games of indifferent play by a kid at 18 and 19 isn't a death knell, especially when he's matching Durant shot for shots in summer camps and seemingly a good dude who works hard, but his college career is too scary for me to have him ahead of Lamb, who I am rooting for with the 8th pick.
Where's the D?
