Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XXIII: Offseason Edition)

[thelead]

Sure, let's add age to this old unathletic group... I have zero faith in the Magic right now.

Maybe the veteran part was misleading, perhaps we just want some guy with 25-28 old that could make we compete right now for a title, DeVos doesnt want to go though another rebuild, IMO.

Then he better do whatever it takes to keep Dwight and add a go to wing scorer. Otherwise, he may not have enough time unfortunately.

[OrlandO]

John Denton @JohnDenton555

#Magic GM Otis Smith made it sound like on Wed. that if he's back, Stan Van Gundy will be his coach. Raved about SVG's "basketball mind."

[NEM]

so is foyle officially taking over?

i dont mind it... i would have rather had pritchard but i could see foyle having success. he is well spoken and has charisma, two very underrated parts of his job... we'll see how he fares, ill reserve judgment for after next offseason, but i dont mind it.

however, due to the fact that we are going to have a GM who isnt very well known around the league to players, our next coach HAS to be a big name... the only big name available out there is sloan and dwight would not want to play for him.

these are the coaches i'd like to see interview:
sloan
doc rivers (not happening unless the c's blow it up)
george karl (not happening)
billy donovan
john callipari
Isaiah thomas

[The Real Dalic]

John Denton @JohnDenton555

#Magic GM Otis Smith made it sound like on Wed. that if he's back, Stan Van Gundy will be his coach. Raved about SVG's "basketball mind."

I don't want any of them back, so please no.

[thelead]

John Denton @JohnDenton555

#Magic GM Otis Smith made it sound like on Wed. that if he's back, Stan Van Gundy will be his coach. Raved about SVG's "basketball mind."

Maybe Otis, Stan, Duhon, JRich and Hedo can go to Portland. You know how much Otis likes to bring in people he's familiar with.

[BadMofoPimp]

Please don't hire someone just because he is an old friend of Dwights. Magic need a reknown GM that Dwight can look up to make the right decisions for the team.

I respect Foyle, but what can he do as a GM if he doesn't have established relationships with other GM's in the league.

[arsenal6106]

BQRMagic
Report: Magic CEO Martins says team will "take a couple of days to decompress" before announcing any changes. http://t.co/HLIIMJeQ

http://t.co/HLIIMJeQ

[ADRajX]

BQRMagic
Report: Magic CEO Martins says team will "take a couple of days to decompress" before announcing any changes. http://t.co/HLIIMJeQ

http://t.co/HLIIMJeQ

Strap-In

[cedric76]

nice and quick, that s what i like

2 days otis gone
3 days D12 is told to commit

[Def Swami]

None of these reports surprise me. We were cooked from the beginning. I don't see a happy ending. Again, I think we get "Horneted."

[thelead]

BQRMagic
Report: Magic CEO Martins says team will "take a couple of days to decompress" before announcing any changes. http://t.co/HLIIMJeQ

http://t.co/HLIIMJeQ

Sounds like Otis and Stan will be gone. Alex says he doesn't want to have anyone in limbo, probably referring to Stan's thoughts of wanting to know ASAP.

[OrlandO]

nice and quick, that s what i like

2 days otis gone
3 days D12 is told to commit

Howard can't sign until July... the most we are going to get before then is a decision on Otis/SVG, Draft stuff, and hopefully some trades not involving Dwight.

[thelead]

None of these reports surprise me. We were cooked from the beginning. I don't see a happy ending. Again, I think we get "Horneted."

If it happens, the magic only have themselves to blame for allowing this mess to get so big.

[T25]

I thought we banned Brian Schmitz and Ping tweets...

[Def Swami]

If we're lucky, Dwight opens his list of desired destinations and we can get a better return for him. Because we're going to get shafted by the Nets, especially if they don't get a lottery pick. Lopez is a RFA so he has to agree to a deal and all they'll have left is Marshon Brooks, who is not the next Kobe. We'd be lucky if LA wants to trade Bynum.

[Def Swami]

None of these reports surprise me. We were cooked from the beginning. I don't see a happy ending. Again, I think we get "Horneted."

If it happens, the magic only have themselves to blame for allowing this mess to get so big.

No question at all

[MoMM]

If we're lucky, Dwight opens his list of desired destinations and we can get a better return for him. Because we're going to get shafted by the Nets, especially if they don't get a lottery pick. Lopez is a RFA so he has to agree to a deal and all they'll have left is Marshon Brooks, who is not the next Kobe. We'd be lucky if LA wants to trade Bynum.

Rockets' assets fits our "veteran package and cap relief" demands...

[T25]

Please no more Rockets vets see TMac trade...

[eyriq]

Imma put my suit on and play GM for a sec and am going to make a stupid long post that I don't expect anyone to read but I'm bored and I like looking back over my posts and seeing how wrong about things I am in hindsight.

Championship is the goal, so I start with the basics. Do we have a franchise player and do we have a core of 1-2 impact players around him?

Dwight is the franchise, answering the first question, and as to the second... Ryan and Turk are the only players to average > 30 mpg in the regular season, Hedo and Nelson make the 2nd and 3rd most money, and Davis played the best in the postseason.

Hedo: In the regular season he finished 3rd in MPG, 5th in FGA and 5th in PPG. His stat line was 11-4-4 on 42-35-71 percentages, PER of 11.7 and USG 19.5%/ORtg 99. In the postseason Hedo finished 4th in MPG and 6th in FGA and PPG. His stat line was 8-3-2 on 37-42-64 percentages, PER of 8.1 and USG 16.6%/ORtg 89.

Nelson: In the regular season he finished 4th in MPG, 4th in FGA and 3rd in PPG. His stat line was 12-3-6 on 43-38-81 percentages, PER of 14.6 and USG 21.4%/ORtg 106. In the postseason Nelson finished 2nd in MPG and 2nd in FGA and PPG. His stat line was 16-4-7 on 39-32-75 percentages, PER of 16.4 and USG 24.5%/ORtg 102.

BBD: In the regular season he finished 7th in MPG, 7th in FGA and 7th in PPG. His stat line was 9-5-1 on 42-14-68 percentages, PER of 13.2 and USG 22.4%/ORtg 96. In the postseason BBD finished 1st in MPG and 1st in FGA and PPG. His stat line was 19-9-1 on 44-77 percentages, PER of 19.4 and USG 27.7%/ORtg 100.

Anderson: In the regular season he finished 2nd in MPG, 2nd in FGA and 2nd in PPG. His stat line was 16-8-1 on 44-39-88 percentages, PER of 21.2 and USG 21.2%/ORtg 124. In the postseason Anderson finished 3rd in MPG and 4th in FGA and 5th in PPG. His stat line was 10-5-1 on 34-40-86 percentages, PER of 7.5 and USG 16%/ORtg 95.

I want a Big 2 or 3 as our core. If a Big 2 then the player needs to be an All Star, if a Big 3 than two fringe stars will work. We clearly do not have a Big 2 or 3 in place at this moment. Anderson was a fringe star in the regular season but played horrible in the playoffs, while Davis played like a fringe star in the postseason but was horrible for the regular season (and his entire career before that). Hedo was passive during the regular season and even more limited during the playoffs while Nelson did step up in the playoffs but didn't do so at a true impact level (except for one spurt, which is fitting for Nelson as his is a career of spurts).

Davis and Anderson stand out the most among this group. Anderson regular season PER of 21.2 and BBD playoff PER 19.4 most succinctly demonstrate why. Is one of those stat lines fools gold? Both? Neither? Sorry guys, BBD has a career playoff PER of 13.6, regular season PER of 12.1 and is 26. I'm calling fools gold on his playoff performance. Anderson has a career regular season PER of 18.4 and playoff PER 8 and is 23. I think he is a safe bet as a fringe star with potential to be an All Star, though his playoff performance's do seem to cap his ceiling.

To break away from player evaluation for a second I want to think about the mechanisms in place for teams to add core pieces. In free agency All Stars cost between $15M/yr to max money and fringe Stars cost $9M/yr to 14M/yr. In order to play the market you have to have cap space. So cap space is one mechanism. Another is through trades: All Stars are worth a Silver Dollar or a Paper Bill, to steal from Simmons Money Value system. Fringe Stars are worth 35¢, 50¢, or the rare Silver Dollar fringe Star on the same scale. So trades are another mechanism, but keep in mind that a player worth a single coin or bill in this system is worth more than his equivalent in change, or in other words a 50¢ player is worth more than 2 25¢ players, and so on. In the draft you find another mechanism to acquire a core piece. You are lucky to find an All Star or fringe Star outside of the lottery, or even after pick 3 tbh, but it does happen with the Spurs as exhibit A. More of a longterm strat, but still a strat.

I think Anderson is our only fringe Star on roster right now. I lock him up long-term for hopefully no more than 9M/yr.

Trade Mechanism for completing our Big 3 Core: Using the money system I'd value our trade pieces as such:

25¢ BBD, Nelson, Redick, JRich
10¢ Clark, '12 1st rounder
5¢ Ish, QRich, Liggins, Harper, '12 2nd rounder
1¢ Duhon
-10¢ Hedo

This means we probably have the pieces to go after a player in the 35¢ - 50¢ range.

Free Agency Mechanism for completing our Big 3 Core:

'12-'13: No hope
'13-'14: Tricky. I project that we'll have 13 players on the books, including Dwight, at a total of $67.538 million. This is if we don't bring over Fran and if we let Nelson and Redick walk, but sign our draft picks from both this draft and the upcoming. We can cut Hedo and Duhon and bring it down to $59.537, but still not a serviceable mechanism. We can trade BBD and JRich for expiring contracts and take it down further to $47.934 million, which puts us right in range to offer a $13M/yr contract to someone.

Draft Mechanism for completing our Big 3 Core:

Doesn't exist really. With Dwight we aren't lottery bound and we don't have the time to wait for our late round picks to develop on the off chance we strike gold.

Where this leaves us: Our tradable assets are barely good enough to net us a second fringe Star, but there is a chance. Some combination of Nelson, Redick, JRich, and BBD would be what I'd float out there. If this fails, I go into full bail water mode and try to to bundle some combination of Hedo + Nelson, Redick, JRich, and BBD into expiring contracts. If we can trade Hedo and clear JRich and BBD from our books we'd have close to max money available for a bonafide All Star, or we could bring over Fran and still afford $13M/yr for a player to complete our core. In either case, a busy offseason would be expected where we shop our non-core pieces for either another core piece or if not then a package that clears longterm salary and moves Hedo. One way or another we are going to have to use trades to rebuild our core, a core I think Anderson belongs in.

[T25]

Imma put my suit on and play GM for a sec and am going to make a stupid long post that I don't expect anyone to read but I'm bored and I like looking back over my posts and seeing how wrong about things I am in hindsight.

Championship is the goal, so I start with the basics. Do we have a franchise player and do we have a core of 1-2 impact players around him?

Dwight is the franchise, answering the first question, and as to the second... Ryan and Turk are the only players to average > 30 mpg in the regular season, Hedo and Nelson make the 2nd and 3rd most money, and Davis played the best in the postseason.

Hedo: In the regular season he finished 3rd in MPG, 5th in FGA and 5th in PPG. His stat line was 11-4-4 on 42-35-71 percentages, PER of 11.7 and USG 19.5%/ORtg 99. In the postseason Hedo finished 4th in MPG and 6th in FGA and PPG. His stat line was 8-3-2 on 37-42-64 percentages, PER of 8.1 and USG 16.6%/ORtg 89.

Nelson: In the regular season he finished 4th in MPG, 4th in FGA and 3rd in PPG. His stat line was 12-3-6 on 43-38-81 percentages, PER of 14.6 and USG 21.4%/ORtg 106. In the postseason Nelson finished 2nd in MPG and 2nd in FGA and PPG. His stat line was 16-4-7 on 39-32-75 percentages, PER of 16.4 and USG 24.5%/ORtg 102.

BBD: In the regular season he finished 7th in MPG, 7th in FGA and 7th in PPG. His stat line was 9-5-1 on 42-14-68 percentages, PER of 13.2 and USG 22.4%/ORtg 96. In the postseason BBD finished 1st in MPG and 1st in FGA and PPG. His stat line was 19-9-1 on 44-77 percentages, PER of 19.4 and USG 27.7%/ORtg 100.

Anderson: In the regular season he finished 2nd in MPG, 2nd in FGA and 2nd in PPG. His stat line was 16-8-1 on 44-39-88 percentages, PER of 21.2 and USG 21.2%/ORtg 124. In the postseason Anderson finished 3rd in MPG and 4th in FGA and 5th in PPG. His stat line was 10-5-1 on 34-40-86 percentages, PER of 7.5 and USG 16%/ORtg 95.

I want a Big 2 or 3 as our core. If a Big 2 then the player needs to be an All Star, if a Big 3 than two fringe stars will work. We clearly do not have a Big 2 or 3 in place at this moment. Anderson was a fringe star in the regular season but played horrible in the playoffs, while Davis played like a fringe star in the postseason but was horrible for the regular season (and his entire career before that). Hedo was passive during the regular season and even more limited during the playoffs while Nelson did step up in the playoffs but didn't do so at a true impact level (except for one spurt, which is fitting for Nelson as his is a career of spurts).

Davis and Anderson stand out the most among this group. Anderson regular season PER of 21.2 and BBD playoff PER 19.4 most succinctly demonstrate why. Is one of those stat lines fools gold? Both? Neither? Sorry guys, BBD has a career playoff PER of 13.6, regular season PER of 12.1 and is 26. I'm calling fools gold on his playoff performance. Anderson has a career regular season PER of 18.4 and playoff PER 8 and is 23. I think he is a safe bet as a fringe star with potential to be an All Star, though his playoff performance's do seem to cap his ceiling.

To break away from player evaluation for a second I want to think about the mechanisms in place for teams to add core pieces. In free agency All Stars cost between $15M/yr to max money and fringe Stars cost $9M/yr to 14M/yr. In order to play the market you have to have cap space. So cap space is one mechanism. Another is through trades: All Stars are worth a Silver Dollar or a Paper Bill, to steal from Simmons Money Value system. Fringe Stars are worth 35¢, 50¢, or the rare Silver Dollar fringe Star on the same scale. So trades are another mechanism, but keep in mind that a player worth a single coin or bill in this system is worth more than his equivalent in change, or in other words a 50¢ player is worth more than 2 25¢ players, and so on. In the draft you find another mechanism to acquire a core piece. You are lucky to find an All Star or fringe Star outside of the lottery, or even after pick 3 tbh, but it does happen with the Spurs as exhibit A. More of a longterm strat, but still a strat.

I think Anderson is our only fringe Star on roster right now. I lock him up long-term for hopefully no more than 9M/yr.

Trade Mechanism for completing our Big 3 Core: Using the money system I'd value our trade pieces as such:

25¢ BBD, Nelson, Redick, JRich
10¢ Clark, '12 1st rounder
5¢ Ish, QRich, Liggins, Harper, '12 2nd rounder
1¢ Duhon
-10¢ Hedo

This means we probably have the pieces to go after a player in the 35¢ - 50¢ range.

Free Agency Mechanism for completing our Big 3 Core:

'12-'13: No hope
'13-'14: Tricky. I project that at minimum we'll have 13 players on the books, including Dwight, at a total of $67.538 million. This is if we don't bring over Fran and if we let Nelson and Redick walk, but sign our draft picks from both this draft and the upcoming. We can cut Hedo and Duhon and bring it down to $59.537, but still not a serviceable mechanism. We can trade BBD and JRich for expiring contracts and take it down further to $47.934 million, which puts us right in range to offer a $13M/yr contract to someone.

Draft Mechanism for completing our Big 3 Core:

Doesn't exist really. With Dwight we aren't lottery bound and we don't have the time to wait for our late round picks to develop on the off chance we strike gold.

Where this leaves us: Our tradable assets are barely good enough to net us a second fringe Star, but there is a chance. Some combination of Nelson, Redick, JRich, and BBD would be what I'd float out there. If this fails, I go into full bail water mode and try to to bundle some combination of Hedo + Nelson, Redick, JRich, and BBD into expiring contracts. If we can trade Hedo and clear JRich and BBD from our books we'd have close to max money available for a bonafide All Star, or we could bring over Fran and still afford $13M/yr for a player to complete our core. In either case, a busy offseason would be expected where we shop our non-core pieces for either another core piece or if not then a package that clears longterm salary and moves Hedo. One way or another we are going to have to use trades to rebuild our core, a core I think Anderson belongs in.

Great Post. I like the logic but my question is do u lock up Ryno for $9m a year if Dwight is not committed? If he is committed I say yes if not let someone else over pay him...